Rodney Hood: Inside the Numbers

After a solid Freshman season at Mississippi State (10.3 ppg), Rodney Hood sat out for the entire 2012-13 season after transferring to Duke. He received a lot of praise from those who saw him in practices at Duke, and has only lived up to that hype and more through 9 games this season, averaging 19.3 points game with a very impressive shooting line of .589% FG, .536% 3P, .825% FT. At 6-8, he can get his shot off over almost anyone and has improved his ability to create off the dribble and draw fouls. In fact, he has actually take 16 more free throws this season than he did his whole first season at MSU, despite having played 23 less games and 751 less minutes so far this season. This speaks not just to his improvement, but also just how little he attacked off the dribble his Freshman year.  Hood's jump in production isn't just a volume thing either, Hood is actually playing slightly less minutes per game this season and is only taking 1.6 more shots a game. Obviously his usage is higher at Duke, but not 10 points a game worth. No, his jump in production is mainly efficiency. By drawing more fouls, taking better shots, and making more of those shots Hood has made himself in a much better and more efficient all around offensive player. Despite his gaudy stat line, Hood has some issues both in his game and in his production that an overall look at his statistics doesn't reveal and that should be brought up when discussing Hood as an NBA prospect. First, there is a matter of the competition that Hood has put these stats up against. In 9 games, Duke has faced 5 below average to awful teams (2-5 Davidson, 2-6 Florida Atlantic, 1-7 UNC Ashville, 7-2 East Carolina, 3-6 Vermont) against who he has put up this stat line:

24.0 points, 37/52 FG (.711%), 10/14 3P (.714%), 36/42 FT (.857%), 9 assists/7 turnovers

With the exception of A/TO ratio, these are amazing numbers. However, against two very good teams (#2 Arizona, #6 Kansas, both games Duke lost), a middle of the pack SEC team in Alabama that at least has some long athletic defenders, and Michigan, an average Big 10 team; this is what Hood produced:

13.5 points, 19/43 FG (.441%), 5/14 3P (.357%), 11/15 FT (.733%), 8 assists/12 turnovers 

Again, outside of the A/TO ratio, these are not bad numbers at all, but they are more in line with what Hood did at Mississippi State, and nothing near Hood's overall stat line, which is where a lot of his hype at both the college and NBA level has come from. Basically, Hood has gotten fat against bad teams and is more like average against okay to good ones. Most troubling is the discrepancy of free throws attempted, against the bad teams he is taking a whopping 8.4 a game, which is an excellent number, especially for a good jump shooter, but in games against higher levels of competition, Hood is taking a paltry 3.8 a game, which is part of the reason Hood's numbers overall are down. Unable to make plays against more athletic teams, Hood is forced to take more jumpers, which lowers his shooting numbers and efficiency, which in turn lowers his scoring average. It should be noted that almost every college basketball player boosts their numbers against cupcakes, but Hood's is so dramatic, and his overall game is effected so much that this raises questions about his ability to be a scorer in the NBA. The other issue with Hood is his physical profile, Hood is neither long* nor does he appear to be particularly quick, athletic, or strong. Because of this, in addition to already being 21, it is hard to imagine Hood becoming better shot creator, especially at the NBA level where he will be going against even better athletes and defensive players than he has faced so far in college. Defensively, his size is an asset at the shooting guard position but the lack of athleticism and length could hurt his ability to defend there and at small forward, where his lack of strength also hurts him. Offensively, Hood can still contribute to an NBA team and I think he is worthy of a mid-1st round pick at this point, but with the intention of making him a 4th option, not a 2nd or 3rd like his numbers suggest. His game reminds me of Wes Johnson, who was longer and more athletic, but was still primarily a jump shooter because of his lack of ability to create off the dribble. Johnson has been a bust, but he was a good prospect coming out and there is no reason Hood will follow that same route unless some team takes him too high thinking he will be a better offensive player than he is.

*In 2012, at the LeBron James Skills Academy, Hood measure in a 6-8.5 with 6-8 wingspan (via DraftExpress)