Monday, November 19, 2012

NBA Draft: Stock Mixed

1. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia
For someone with a reputation as a great shooter, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been consistently poor, shooting just 30% from 3 as a Freshman and is just 13-for-40 from deep this season. Despite these consistently poor results, he's still taking a whopping 10 threes a game. That's a big problem for Caldwell-Pope, his shot selection has been awful, gunning away early in the clock. The problem is that without a jumpshot, Caldwell-Pope doesn't bring much else to the table; he's a good but unspectacular defender and nothing special as a rebounder, passer, or ball handler. Unless he can find his stroke, and taking better shots will help that, Caldwell-Pope isn't a legitimate draft prospect right now.

2. Nerlens Noel, Archie Goodwin, and Alex Poythress, Kentucky
Looking at their numbers so far this year, you'd think that the top three Kentucky Freshmen were dominating, but in fact they've been up and down. Poythress struggled against Maryland and dominated Duke and Lafayette while Goodwin and Noel have had some good moments and some bad in every game. Poythress might be the best prospect of the bunch, he simply needs to learn to harness all his energy and athleticism and play with a plan, because his reckless aggressiveness has led to fouls and turnovers as well as spectacular plays. Goodwin is adjusting to playing more point guard and should improve over the course of the season as he learns to balance his own scoring and making teammates better. Noel has been solid on defense, but he's still adjusting to the improved strength, speed, and skill of the college game on that end. Offensively, he's got a ways to go, but that's nothing new. Overall, none of these players have hurt their standing much, and Poythress may have helped his, but as other prospect rise, they need to keep improving.

3. Cody Zeller, Indiana
After dominating two cupcakes, Cody Zeller struggled against the first real team Indiana played, Georgia. Zeller finished with only just 6 points and 4 boards in 27 minutes of action, even more trouble some were the 4 turnovers. When Zeller tried to beat his opponent with footwork, he traveled and when he tried to use power, he was called for an offensive foul. It's only one bad game and I'm sure Zeller will bounce back, but if he wants to be a number 1 overall pick, there can't be many more of these type of games for Zeller. Scouts are already not sold on Zeller as a top pick because he lacks big upside and doesn't dominate in any particular aspect of the game.

4. Adonis Thomas, Memphis
Thomas has been solid scoring the ball in Memphis' first two games, averaging 12 points on 50% shooting. However, after all the hype that he's got a legit 3 point shot, Thomas is 0-for-5 from deep. More disconcerting is Thomas' lack of rebounding; last seasons 3.2 a game seemed like a fluke for the athletic, physical 6-7, 230 pound forward, but he's only grabbing 3 a game, including a goose egg in 39 minutes of play against Samford. He's also only blocked 1 shot in 60 minutes this season. Thomas needs to show he's actually improved his shooting and make more athletic plays on the boards and on defense if he wants to be a lottery pick.

5. C.J. Leslie and Lorenzo Brown, North Carolina State
After cruising to three easy wins, North Carolina State got punched in the face by Oklahoma State and lost by 20. Two of the biggest reasons for the loss were C.J. Leslie (2 points, 1-for-5 shooting, 5 fouls) and Lorenzo Brown (6 points, 2-for-9 shooting, 7 turnovers), the Wolfpack's two leaders. Both are potential first round picks, but any more performances against good teams like this and that will change quickly. Leslie needs to continue to be aggressive while also improving his shot selection while Brown needs learn how to control an offense better and not turn the ball over as much.

NBA Draft: Stock Up

1. Alex Len, Maryland

After a much hyped, mostly disappointing rookie season, Ukrainian big man Alex Len is having the kind of impact many expected last year. In hindsight, it isn't surprising, European players usually have a transition period, especially 18 year old's coming to America for the first time. However, if players can make that transition they are usually in for breakout years because they're used to the style of play and can bring all their skills to the forefront. It also helps Len that he has a much more talented team playing around him and doesn't have a ball-hog like Terrell Stoglin shooting the ball every time down the court. For Len, the game seems to have slowed down and he's able to use his size (7-1, 225), length and high skill level to score inside and out. On the defensive end, Len has also improved; he was always mobile and athletic for his size, but now he understands where to be and has the awareness to get there on time. Len had his coming out party against Nerlens Noel and Kentucky when he 23 points, 12 boards, and 4 blocks. He doesn't have to keep putting up numbers like that, but if he continues to play the same aggressive, smart, skillful game he'll be a lock for the top 10 if not higher.

2. Isaiah Austin, Baylor
Most likely due to the disappointing Baylor careers by Perry Jones III and Quincy Miller, Isaiah Austin seemed to have pretty low expectations for a top 5 recruit. After his first 4 games however, expectations might be raised because Austin has been very impressive so far. The 7-footer Austin has shown his unique skills so far this year, averaging 14.8 points and 9 rebounds while shooting 53% from the field and 40% from 3. What's more impressive is how Austin has been playing, on offense he's been scoring from the inside and out, scoring over defenders or making athletic plays above the rim while on defense he's defended well and averaged a rebound every 3 minutes. Oddly, though he's been a tremendous shotblocker, he's only blocked 2 shots in 4 games, but I'd expect that to change soon. The scary thought is that Austin is still just a Freshman early in his career and figuring out how to translate his skill-set to the college game. Give him a little time and look out.

3. Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse
After being buried on the depth chart for his Freshman season, the uber-talented Michael Carter-Williams is the starting point guard for Syracuse and has taken the role and run with it. Through two games, Carter-Williams is averaging an impressive 11.5 points, 5 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 1.5 blocks and a whopping 4 steals over two games. For MCW it's not a case of skills, he's a long, athletic 6-6 point guard who can shoot from deep, drive the ball, see the floor and make plays on defense; it's just a matter of getting experience after only playing 10 minutes a game last season. That playing time will likely triple this season and MCW will get the experience he needs to learn how to run a team and harness all his immense talent into one, lottery bound packege.

4. Marcus Smart and Le'Bryan Nash, Oklahoma State
No team has been more impressive this season than Oklahoma State. After struggling to beat a good Akron team, OSU dominated two tournament teams in Tennessee and #6 ranked North Carolina State. The Cowboys success can be linked to two things: the arrival of Freshman guard Marcus Smart and the improvement of Sophomore Le'Bryan Nash. Last season, Nash came into the year with a lot of hype, but only had an average season and struggled in many games, this season he's playing much more aggressive and using his 6-7, 230 pound frame and explosive athleticism to attack the basket and get to the line a remarkable 11 times, where he is converting at 86%. Nash is also rebounding and defending well too. For Smart, the key to his rise in stock has been playing the point this year, coming in as a freshman most figured Smart would be playing shooting guard. Smart is an explosive, physical guard with great size for a point guard at 6-4, 225 but would be undersized at the two so playing the point would be huge for his stock. The fit works, Smart is a really good ballhandler and drive and dish player, he simply needs to learn run an offense, but that will come with time. If you're looking for the next Russell Westbrook, this may be it. Smart has put up a Westbrook-esque line of 15.3 points, 8 boards, 5 assists, 3 steals and 1.5 blocks a game.



5. Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky
The most unheralded of the Kentucky Freshman, Willie Cauley-Stein has been the most consistent performer for the Wildcats. He hasn't gotten a ton of minutes, just 19.3 a game, but when he's played he's shown a good motor combined with a 7-0, 220 pound, long and athletic frame. Cauley-Stein was a late bloomer in High School who split time between football and basketball (how about a guy that size playing wide receiver?) but just about every time he stepped on the floor he made improvements. The offense has a ways to go, but Cauley-Stein has good hands and given the rate of improvement so far for him, plus the physicality coming from football, there's a good chance that the offense comes. If he continues gradual improvement while also playing hard and defending, there's a good chance Cauley-Stein ends up a first rounder in 2013, but if he comes back for another year and gets more minutes, the lottery or higher are possible.

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Breakout NBA players

Atlantic Division: Avery Bradley, Celtics
Bradley is still recovering from shoulder surgery and probably won't be back until mid-December, but when he does he should be inserted right into the starting lineup. Bradley played limited minutes, but in the last month of the season he played 33 minutes and averaged 15 points a game on 52% shooting while playing some of the most tenacious defense in the league. Like seriously, this guy is already one of the best wing defenders in the league, he'll provides relentless ball pressure and is very hard to beat of the dribble with fast hands to pick up steals. If Bradley, with his motor and cutting ability can get Boston 2 or 3 easy shots a game and he continues to improve as a shooter, especially from the corner, and as ball handler, he'll be one of the better 2 guards in the league, his defense is that good.

Central Division: Tristan Thompson, Cavaliers
The 4 overall pick in the draft had an up and down season, combining powerful dunks and big blocks with bricked free throws and poor turnovers. Thompson was a tremendous rebounder (especially offensively, where he averaged 3.1 a game) and played some pretty solid defense, while drawing fouls in bunches (almost 5 FTA a game) and converting close to the basket. All of those things should continue, but he needs to improve on his shooting and post play. Thompson shot poorly from the outside and even worse from the line (55%). If Thompson can improve that to 65%-70% while taking smarter, closer shots and waiting to be set up by teammates instead of force action, he could become a solid starter due to his other abilities.

Southeast: Nikola Vucevic, Magic
The Magic didn't get much for Dwight Howard, but one of the young pieces they got back has a chance to become a decent NBA starter, and since he's a center, that means Nikola Vucevic will be a valuable NBA player. With Dwight Howard gone and the only other true center on the Magic roster being a second round pick, Nikola Vucevic should get a lot more playing time than he did in Philadelphia. If Vucevic gets more playing time, he really needs only to become more consistent, polish out his game, and go into the post more. Vucevic is a very good rebounder and can hit an outside jumper, with even 3-point range, but he needs to spend more time in the post. Being on an Orlando team with a bunch of other jump shooters will hopefully cause Vucevic to go into the post more, which will open up the rest of his game and increase his efficiency as a shooter.

Pacific Division: Goran Dragic, Suns
Goran Dragic perhaps had his breakout season last year, but it was only for the last month of the season, and given Dragic's up-and-down nature, he'll have to do it consistently for a full season to take the next step. The reason Dragic had success in Houston last season was that played in a system that suited him: a system that gave him the ball, played up-tempo, and let him make all the plays. Luckily for Dragic, he's now in Phoenix which plays the same type of system, heavy on pick and roll and surrounding Dragic with shooters. The key to consistency for him is to cut down on the turnovers and continue to shoot well from 3. If Dragic can keep players from going under screens on the pick and roll, he should be able to pick opponents apart in a Steve Nash-lite type of way.

Southwest Division: Kawhi Leonard, Spurs
My original choice for the Southwest Division breakout player was Chandler Parsons, but given the fact that the Rockets just added another ballhandler/scorer in James Harden, I don't think Parsons will get enough usage to be the player he can be given the opportunity. Kawhi Leonard is another likely breakout candidate for two reasons: talent and opportunity. First, the talent: Leonard is a big, strong wing player with long arms, huge hands, and explosive athleticism, because of that he's a very good rebounder and finisher at the rim who can overpower defenders. Where Leonard needs to improve is as a shooter, where he shot 38% from 3, but only 29% on long 2s; it's one thing to hit open corner 3s like Leonard did in the Spurs system, but quite another to be a go-to scorer. As for opportunity, Leonard should have a bigger role in the San Antonio offense as the older Spurs stars rest more and hold back for the playoffs.

Northwest Division: Alec Burks, Jazz
For some unknown reason, the Jazz continued to play the Zombiefied corpse of Raja Bell despite having a young talent like Alec Burks on the roster, who produced whenever given the chance. Hopefully, the Jazz have learned from the mistake and will give Burks the Sixth Man role and plenty of playing time. Burks is dangerous weapon because he uses his quickness, explosiveness, and ball-handling  to get to the rim, finish, and draw a ton of fouls, that won't go away and he should be a league leader in fouls drawn on a per minute basis. However, like all young players Burks needs to improve as a shooter both from 3 and in-between, but given that his stroke looks good and he shot well from the line as both a rookie and in college, there's hope that it will just take a little bit of work before the shots start falling.

College Basketball Award Predictions

Freshman of the Year: Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA
Any prediction surrounding Shabazz Muhammad comes with the caveat "if eligible." If Muhammad misses 10 -15 games, he's still probably the Freshman of the year because he's just that good and will provide the kind of stat sheet stuffing and highlight plays that lead to awards and national recognition. Obviously, if he's out for the whole year then the race is more wide open. Isaiah Austin and Nerlens Noel will both be dominant defensive players who'll average 2-3 blocks and 9-10 rebounds a game, but I'll give the edge to Austin because he's a better offensive player.

Defensive Player of the Year: Gougi Dieng, Lousville
Jeff Withey of Kansas is also a strong contender, but Dieng will likely play more minutes, grab more rebounds, and play on an overall better defensive team. Dieng will likely block 3+ shots a game and provide tough interior defense against both driving guards and post up players. Nerlens Noel is another possibility, but it's hard to predict a Freshman to win an award like this.

Coach of the Year: Mark Few, Gonzaga
Gonzaga is a preseason top 20 team with a really good chance to finish in the top 10, which means Mark Few will be in the running for Coach of the Year. There will probably be an overachieving team that comes out of nowhere and has a great season, and that coach will win the award. As of now, I like Gonzaga to be a top team because they have very winnable non-conference games against Clemson, West Virginia, Kansas State, and Washington State and have a great chance to knock off Baylor at home.

Player of the Year: Cody Zeller, Indiana
I'm not as sure about this one as some other people, Cody Zeller is absolutely one of the best, if not the best player in the country, but he plays on such a loaded team that I'm not sure that can compete with some of the gaudy numbers Doug McDermott or even Shabazz Muhammad (if eligible...) will put up. Zeller will have to average 17+ points and 7-8+ rebounds (up from 15 and 6) while still shooting great percentages and provide a defensive presence to a perviously average defensive team. If Zeller does those things, which are easily possible, and Indiana lives up to expectations, he'll be player of the year no matter how many points Doug McDermott averages.

First Team All-American
G: Isaiah Canaan, Murray State
G: Trey Burke, Michigan
F: Doug McDermott, Creighton
F: Mike Moser, UNLV
C: Cody Zeller, Indiana

Second Team All-American
G: Phil Pressey, Missouri
G: Pierre Jackson, Baylor
F: Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA
F: Deshaun Thomas, Ohio State
C: Trevor Mbakwe, Minnesota

Third Team All-American
G: Michael Snaer, Florida State
G: Jamaal Franklin, San Deigo State
F: Otto Porter, Georgetown
F: Tony Mitchell, North Texas
C: Gorgui Dieng, Louisville

All-Freshman First Team
G: Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State
G: Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA
F: Kyle Anderson, UCLA
F: Isaiah Austin, Baylor
C: Nerlens Noel, Kentucky

All-Freshman Second Team
G: Rasheed Sulaimon, Duke
G: Archie Goodwin, Kentucky
F: Alex Poythres, Kentucky
F: DaJuan Coleman, Syracuse
C: Steven Adams, Pittsburgh

All-Freshman Third Team
G: Gary Harris, Michigan State
G: Glen Robinson III, Michigan
F: Grant Jerrett, Arizona
F: Anthony Bennett, UNLV
C: Kaleb Tarczewski, Arizona

Monday, October 22, 2012

NBA Awards Predictions

Most Improved Player: Paul George, Indiana
This is always the most difficult award to predict because it usually just has to do with playing time more than actual improvement. Paul George is a starter and played plenty of minutes last season, but Darren Collison and Leandro Barbosa are both gone, so George will be leaned on to score more, that plus a slight uptick in rebounds, steals, and blocks (plus some highlight reel dunks) will make George a favorite for this award. Evan Turner, Goran Dragic, and Klay Thompson are all also possibilities.

Coach of the Year: Eric Spoelstra, Miami
Despite all the criticism that he's received, Eric Spoelstra has improved every year as a coach and is now one of the best in the game. Obviously, it's easy when you've got the talent that he's got, but just throwing together talent doesn't equal success (see: the Knicks), and Spoelstra has managed this team to perfection while also leading the way for the new small-ball era. The Heat will likely dominate the regular season even if injuries crop up and this award usually goes to the winning-est coach. Mike Brown and Doc Rivers also have good shots at winning.

Sixth Man of the Year: Jason Terry, Boston
I had James Harden as the winner of this award a couple days ago, but now that he's been traded to Houston and will start, he won't be eligible. Jason Terry is a solid choice however, he'll be counted for a lot of offense off the bench and should average 15+ points a game. Manu Ginobili, and Ray Allen/Rashard Lewis are all possibilities.

Rookie of the Year: Anthony Davis, New Orleans
This award is a closer race than some might think, with Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Jonas Valanciunas both strong challengers. Given the hype around Anthony Davis, it's hard for me to imagine that he won't win it, since there will be a strong focus on him, meaning that what he does best, namely defense, won't go unnoticed. Plus he's likely to put up some gaudy rebound/shot-blocking numbers while scoring at a decent clip and providing highlights galore.

Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard, L.A. Lakers
Forgotten in the Dwightmare is just how amazing of a player Howard is. He was barely trying last year and still led the league in rebounding, blocked 2.1 shots a game, and finished third in DPOY voting and was First-Team All Defense. Now that he's motivated and angry for not winning DPOY for a third straight year? Forget about it. Tyson Chandler, Serge Ibaka, and LeBron James all have shots to win, but Howard is the clear favorite.

Most Valuable Player: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
LeBron will likely be the player who deserves this the most at the end of the year, but a combination of voter fatigue and Kevin Durant actually improving will lead to Durant getting the award. If Durant continues to improve both his passing and his defense, while sustaining his incredible scoring/shooting performances, he'd be the clear MVP in a LeBron-less universe. Chris Paul and Dwight Howard both have chance to win along with LeBron of course.

All NBA-First Team
G: Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers
G: Dwyane Wade, Miami
F: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
F: LeBron James, Miami Heat
C: Dwight Howard, L.A. Lakers

All-NBA Second Team
G: Rajon Rondo, Boston
G: Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City
F: Josh Smith, Atlanta
F: Blake Griffin, L.A. Clippers
C: Tyson Chandler, New York

All-NBA Third Team
G: Deron Williams, Brooklyn
G: Tony Parker, San Antonio
G: Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers
F: Kevin Love, Minnesota
F: Kevin Garnett, Boston

All-Defensive First Team
G: Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers
G: Tony Allen, Memphis
F: Andre Igoudala, Denver
F: LeBron James, Miami
C: Dwight Howard, L.A. Lakers


All-Defensive Second Team
G: Ricky Rubio, Minnesota
G: Avery Bradley, Boston
F: Josh Smith, Atlanta
F: Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City
C: Tyson Chandler, New York

All-Rookie First Team
G: Damian Lillard, Portland
G: Bradley Beal, Washington
F: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte
F: Anthony Davis, New Orleans
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto

All-Rookie Second Team
G: Jeremy Lamb, Houston
G: Harrison Barnes, Golden State
F: Terrence Jones, Houston
F: Andrew Nicholson, Orlando
C: Andre Drummond, Detroit

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Early 2013 NBA Draft Top 15

1. Nerlens Noel, C Kentucky Fr. (6-11, 215)
Though he'll likely be unfairly compared to Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel might just be good enough live up to it anyways. Noel is much more of a traditional big man, and may even be a better shot blocker than Davis. Noel is big, long, and explosively athletic with terrific timing and instincts as a defender. He moves excellently for a big man and projects to be an outstanding pick-and-roll defender to go with obvious ability as a help defender. Offensively, he still has a ways to go, but he can hit a mid-range jumper and has some basic post moves; given the his overall athletic ability and great hands, I'd expect him to develop into a very good offensive player as well. Right now he's the favorite to be the top overall pick.

2. Shabazz Muhammad, G/F UCLA Fr. (6-6, 225)
Perhaps the most NBA ready player in the draft, Shabazz Muhammad has an NBA body and an NBA game. Ripped and super explosive athletically, Muhammad is a monster on the offensive end because of his first step, strength, and explosiveness attack the rim, especially in transition. Muhammad also has a fairly advanced post and mid-range game for his position. Really, the only weakness offensively is 3 point shooting, which isn't bad, just needs work. Muhammad is also an outstanding rebounder and defender. The thing to love the most about him though, is his motor and tenacity, he's always attacking on offense and defense. Muhammad and Noel will likely be battling all year for the number 1 overall pick.

3. Cody Zeller, C Indiana So. (6-11, 210)
Always viewed as a quality player but not elite High School player, Cody Zeller took the next step to star in his freshman year. Zeller's greatest attribute is his offense, where he can score in the paint or step out and hit a jumper, he's also very good running the floor. Physically, he has good size but needs to get stronger and isn't particularly long or explosive, however he moves really well and is very quick, which serves him well both offensively. If Zeller takes another step forward next season, he'll have a shot at the top overall pick and certainly go in the top 5, there just aren't many players his size with this much offensive ability.

4. Isaiah Austin, C Baylor Fr. (7-0, 215)
A long, athletically gifted big man who can handle the ball and shoot playing at Baylor, sound familiar? Much like Perry Jones and Quincy Miller before him, Isaiah Austin is a super skilled big man with advanced ball handling skills and 3-point shooting ability. Though Austin is most comfortable on the perimeter, he can also take the ball inside and score in the post while on defense he's a tremendous shotblocker thanks to explosive athleticism, a 7-3 wingspan, and a great timing as well as a excellent rebounder. Austin still needs to learn to take the ball into the post more and get stronger, but the combination of offensive skill and defensive ability he brings is enough to make him a top 5-10 pick easily.

5. James Michael McAdoo, PF North Carolina So. (6-9, 225)
The million dollar question with McAdoo is which part of his season was the reality, was it the first 30 games of the season, he was absolutely dreadful, or the last 8 when he was much better. I love McAdoo coming out of high school because of his polish and physical abilities, but he rarely showed either until the end of the season. McAdoo is skilled offensively and solid defensively to go with very smooth athleticism and explosiveness. McAdoo is the main guy at North Carolina next year and could crash and burn if those 8 games were just an aberrational and he might be a little overrated at this point, after all he's only scored in double figures 6 times in his career and never had more than 10 rebounds, but I believe in the High School player I saw.

6. Alex Poythress, SF Kentucky Fr.(6-9, 215)
Like Noel, Alex Poythress will likely suffer from unfair comparisons to his predecessor on the wing, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but Poythress is a terrific player in his own right. A long, explosive athlete, Poythress has a great motor and is constantly in attack mode on offense, defense, and crashing the glassing. That isn't to say Poythress is unskilled, he's got a good handle and can get to the rim as well as hit open jumpers.

7. Steven Adams, C Pittsburgh Fr. (6-11, 240)
Adams came out of nowhere both as a College recruit and an NBA prospect because, playing in his native New Zealand, very few had actually seen him play. However, after playing stateside against top recruits Nerlens Noel and Kaleb Tarczewski and more than holding his own, Adams blew up and became a top 10 recruit and a potential top 10 pick and it's easy to see why. Long, athletic, and strong, Adams plays very hard and physically, especially on defense and on the boards, he has great hands and a developing skill set.

8. Rudy Gobert, PF/C France (7-1, 230)
Rudy Gobert came legitimately onto the NBA top prospect radar after dominating EuroCamp and measuring over 7-foot with a crazy 7-9 wingspan, which rivals the longest recorded in the last 10 so years (as a point of reference, the longest in the last draft was Andre Drummond's 7-6). Because of that length, Gobert is an outstanding rebounder, shotblocker, and finisher around the rim. Gobert still has to work on his overall skill level and get a lot stronger, but his potential is off the charts because of that size, as well as mobility and athleticism.

9. Tony Mitchell, SF North Texas So. (6-8, 220)
Finally able to play after academic and transfer issues, Tony Mitchell was completely dominant, averaging 14.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 3 blocks a game, shooting 57% from the field and 44% from 3. The scoring, rebounding, and shot blocking, while excellent, aren't unexpected given Mitchell's skills, but the 3 point shooting is, as Mitchell was inconsistent from that range in High School. If Mitchell can continue to dominate and shoot from 3 that well, there's a good chance he'll get drafted in the top 10, because there are few more talented players in College basketball.

10. Anthony Bennett, PF UNLV Fr. (6-8, 230)
Whether it's fair or not, Anthony Bennett's draft stock will most likely rise and fall with his 3 point percentage. Despite being long, very explosive and strong, Bennett will always be labeled as undersized at 6-8, unless he has another growth spurt in him. Bennett's physical tools allow him to score in High School and, after a little seasoning, should be able to in college as well but, really it will all come down to the shooting. Bennett is already a good shooter and should only improve with time, and if it does Bennett will certainly be a top 10 pick.

11. Myck Kabongo, PG Texas So. (6-2, 170)
Though he struggled in his freshman year, there's still a lot to love about Myck Kabongo. Kabongo is a super quick, pure point guard who thinks pass first and loves to set up teammates, especially on the break. He's got as solid jumper and can get by most. He's also a charismatic, quality kid and vocal leader. So why did Kabongo  struggle? First, he played on dysfunctional Texas team that lacked talent. Secondly, he's small and smaller players usually have an adjustment period when it comes to finishing and dealing with stronger players. Kabongo has had a season and an offseason to get stronger and adjust, while Texas is losing some problem players and gaining a top recruiting class, so he could be in line for a breakout.

12. Ricardo Ledo, SG Providence Fr. (6-6, 195)
Perhaps the best scorer in the 2012 recruiting class, Ricardo Ledo has one thing on his mind when he steps on the floor: get buckets. Ledo is long and athletic and can score in a multitude of ways, whether it's with a smooth jumper or getting to the rim, Ledo is a natural. He also has advanced ball handling skills and great body control. Ledo's greatest strength can also be his greatest weakness, when he sometimes is too aggressive looking for his own shot. It's not that he's selfish, he just needs to learn to make the easier play rather than try to do it all himself.

13. Grant Jerrett, PF Arizona Fr. (6-10, 220)
One of three 5-Star Arizona frontcourt recruits, Grant Jerrett is the best NBA prospect of the three because he's got legit power forward height, athleticism, length (7-1 wingspan), and the frame to add a lot more strength to go along with a great skill set, including three point range, a post game, and a high basketball IQ. Jerrett needs to get stronger and learn to play more aggressively to become a dominant force, however he at worst has a future as a stretch 4 in the NBA, if not more.

14. Kyle Anderson, SF UCLA Fr. (6-8, 230)
I'm conflicted on Kyle Anderson, I love his size, incredible point guard skills, mid-range game and history as a winner, but it's hard to watch him and not think he's just not an NBA level athlete. There's something to be said about playing the game at your own pace, but I have a hard time seeing Anderson beating anyone off the dribble in the NBA. Still, Anderson will play in the NBA and at least be a solid player, especially if he can improve his shooting, but I don't think he'll be the dominant player he was in High School and likely will be in College. I also doubt Anderson will be a one-and-done either.

15. Michael Carter-Williams, G Syracuse Fr. (6-5, 180)
Syracuse had a deep, veteran backcourt last season, so 5-star, McDonald's All-American Michael Carter-Williams only played 10.3 minutes a game, while appearing in 26 of 37 games. When he did play, however he displayed serious talent, shooting 39% from 3 and posting a 3.9 assist-to-turnover ratio. Now, with Scoop Jardine and Dion Waiters gone, Carter-Williams will a starter and able to display his full skillset as a tall, long combo guard who can score from anywhere on the floor and has the potential to play point guard full time.
Just missed: Dario Saric, Croatia; Patric Young, Florida; Archie Goodwin, Kentucky; Adonis Thomas, Memphis; C.J. Leslie, North Carolina State

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Jack/Wright, Anderson/Ayon trades

Jarrett Jack to Golden State, Dorell Wright to Philadelphia
Golden State, Philadelphia, and New Orleans complicated 3 team deal involving several players, but the gist of the deal is that the Warriors end up with Jarrett Jack and the Sixers get Dorell Wright. For New Orleans, they're simply clearing up money to sign Eric Gordon as well as playing time in the backcourt for some of their younger players.
I love this move for Golden State, who really needed a dependable back up for Stephen Curry, who has struggled to stay healthy with recurring ankle injuries. Jack is solid both offensively and defensively; not spectacular, but solid. Jack is actually better defending shooting guards, so he can play there as well and can take the departed Brandon Rush's minutes while Curry is healthy. With Jack and second year combo guard Charles Jenkins, Golden State is much more secure in the backcourt. Perhaps equally as important, by trading Wright, Golden State has cleared playing time for Harrison Barnes at small forward, where he'll likely start with Richard Jefferson as the back up.
As for Philadelphia, I'm not really sure what they're doing. Dorell Wright is a good player, but I'm not sure when he'll play. Philadelphia now has Wright, Andre Igoudala, Nick Young, Evan Turner, and Moe Harkless  on the wing, as well as combo forward Thaddeus Young. Unless a trade is coming, and you have to think that one is, how are they going to find minutes for all these players? Add that to the fact that Philadelphia has no back up point guard and no proven commodity at power forward, you have to think they're trading either Igoudala or Turner. As far as the fit on the team, I like Wright in Philadelphia: Wright has shot 37% from 3 the last three seasons and they really need shooting now that Jodie Meeks and Lou Williams are gone. Wright is also a solid defender when motivated, and Doug Collins is the kind of coach who can get the most out of him on that end. What he doesn't do, however, is cure the Sixers lack of shots at the rim, because Wright struggles to create his own shot. Wright is also an expiring contract, which gives Philadelphia some flexibility next summer. Still, you have to think this is the precursor to a big trade.

Ryan Anderson to the Hornets
The Hornets continue to rebuild their roster, having acquired former Magic forward Ryan Anderson in a sign-and-trade with Orlando. Anderson is receiving a 4 year, $36 million deal while the Magic receive forward Gustavo Ayon. Anderson is a nice add for New Orleans, who need to add talent to their frontcourt, and while they may have overpaid a little, Anderson has value because he can shoot (38% career 3 point shooter) and rebound. Presumably, New Orleans believes that Anthony Davis can play center, the position he played in college, or else they wouldn't have paid a power forward starting money. On the floor, New Orleans will lack a low post presence until Davis develops more, so I wouldn't be surprised if they brought back Carl Landry to play that role. However, the Hornets will also really be able to shoot, with Anderson, Eric Gordon, Austin Rivers, Xavier Henry and Darius Miller all being average to above-average shooters. Anderson is also young enough (24) to fit into the Hornets rebuilding plan. For the Magic, they lose out on re-signing Anderson, who was probably out of their price range, and get a valuable big in Ayon who is big, athletic, and has a really good motor. Ayon, along with Glen Davis, Andrew Nicholson, and Kyle O'Quinn will form the core of the Magic frontcourt after Dwight Howard is either traded or leaves via free agency. Those four players are a good mix of abilities and should be a solid, and perhaps more importantly cheap, rotation.