Friday, June 8, 2012

NBA Draft: Measurement Winners


*All measurements in shoes*

Harrison Barnes, North Carolina
Barnes measured in as a prototype small forward at 6-8 in shoes, 228 pounds and a great wingspan of 6-11¼. Also, considering Barnes shooting and defensive ability, there's a good chance he'll be able to play some shooting guard for a team.

Will Barton, Memphis
At 6-6 in shoes, Barton has great size for a 2 guard as well as a terrific 6-9¾, but that's not surprising considering he averaged 8 rebounds a game last season. The real reason Barton is a winner is that he weighed in at 174, because their were some who thought he as low as 160. Barton still needs to put on weight, but this is a good start.

Jared Cunningham, Oregon State
The hope with Jared Cunningham was maybe he can play point guard, but after measuring in at 6-5 in shoes,  in addition to big time athleticism, he can definitely play 2 guard if point guard doesn't work out.

Anthony Davis, Kentucky
Not that Davis could have actually hurt his stock with his measurement, but it's always nice to confirm: 6-10½, 222 with a 7-5½ wingspan and and 9 foot standing reach, which is great for a power forward.

Andre Drummond, Connecticut
All you can say about Drummond's measuremesn: 6-11¾, 277, 7-6¼ wingspan and a 9-1½ standing reach.

Draymond Green, Michigan State
There was some thought that Green might measure in at 6-6 and be stuck between positions, but Green turned out to be 6-7½ with a 8-10 standing reach, which is definitely good enough to play power forward in today's NBA.

Moe Harkless, St. John's
Harkless measured in at almost 6-9 with a 7-0 winspan, which is terrific for a small forward. In addition to that, Harkless is a big time athlete, so you're looking at rare physical tools.

Terrence Jones, Kentucky
Jones was one of the biggest winners of the measurements when he came in at 6-9½, 252 and a 7-2¼ wingspan, which is more than good enough to play power forward in the NBA. And with the skills Jones possesses, that makes him an unique prospect at the 4.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky
The was speculation that Kidd-Gilchrist would be closer to 6-5, but he silenced all doubts measuring 6-7½ with a outstanding 7-0 wingspan, which is great for a small forward. Kidd-Gilchrist is also a great athlete, so there's no concern with him at the position.

Doron Lamb, Kentucky
I was worried Lamb might measure under his listed height of 6-4, but in fact he measured above it at 6-4¾ with a wingspan of 6-7¾, which is adequate for an NBA 2 guard. Lamb is one of the two best shooters in the draft and with his size and wingspan, he's a potential solid rotational player, maybe even starter.

Meyers Leonard, Illinois
Leonard measured in at the tallest player in the draft at 7-1¼, which is elite size for an NBA center, along with a 7-3 wingspan. Leonard is one of the only true centers in the draft, and with the dearth of centers in NBA, Leonard could surprise with how high he goes.

Damian Lillard, Weber State
Lillard came in at almost an inch above his listed height of 6-2, but what really made him stand out is the 6-7¾ wingspan, which is great for a point guard. Lillard's length, quickness, and athleticism give him the potential to be a very good defender as well as the offensive player he's always been.

Fab Melo, Syracuse
Melo measured what was expected at 7-0 with a 7-2½ wingspan, and a 9-1½ standing reach (third best in the draft), but where he really stood out was weighing in at 255 with 9.2 body fat. The more Melo works on his body, the better he'll become as a player. It appears Melo is willing to put in the work.

Quincy Miller, Baylor
Miller had some of the best measurements in the draft, coming in at 6-10 with a 7-1¼ wingspan and an outstanding 9-1 standing reach, which would be good for a center, let alone a forward. If Miller can bulk up,  there's no question he can play power forward in the NBA, which given his perimeter skills would make him an intriguing prospect to say the least. If Miller polishes his game and recovers fully from his knee injury, he could end up one of the top 5 best players in this draft.

Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure
Nicholson had great measurements for a power forward at 6-9½, 234 with an outstanding 7-4 wingspan. Nicholson's defense and inside-out offensive game (including a jumpshot out to the 3) make him a potential NBA starter.

Austin Rivers, Duke
Some thought Rivers might come in at 6-3, but instead he surprised by measuring in at 6-5 with a 6-7¼ wingspan, both more than adequate for an NBA 2 guard. There's a lot that people criticize Austin Rivers about, but size can't be one of them anymore.

Thomas Robinson, Kansas
Robinson was another prospect who people suspected might come in much shorter than advertised, instead he came in right as listed and with a 7-3¼ wingspan and 8-10 reach, more than good enough to play power forward in the NBA, especially after he's already displayed elite rebounding ability.

Royce White, Iowa State
Watching Royce White, you can see the skill on there perimeter to play small forward as well as the rebounding and toughness of a power forward. Now that White has measured in at 6-8, 261 with a 7-0 wingspan and 8-8½ reach, good enough to play at least part time at power forward in the NBA.

Tony Wroten Jr, Washington
Man, if Tony Wroten can ever figure out who to shoot and play in control, he'll be a freak of a point guard in the NBA, measuring in a 6-6 with a 6-9 wingspan...

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

2012 NBA Draft Big Board

1. Anthony Davis, PF Kentucky Fr. (6-10, 220)
The question with Anthony Davis isn't if he's going to be good, it's how good is he going to be. Davis is an incredible defensive player with all the physical tools along with natural instinct that you just can't teach. He should be a top 5 defensive player early in his NBA career. Offensively, Davis can hit a jumpshot and is terrific finishing around the rim, and while he's still figuring it out in the post, he improved every game in that respect. Plus he's got unique ball handling skills for his size. Not only is Davis bursting with talent, he plays hard all the time and is a hard worker on and off the court. The scariest thing about Davis is he's only scratching the surface of his talent.
NBA Comparison: Kevin Garnett, Boston

2. Andre Drummond, C Connecticut Fr. (6-11, 275)
While I completely understand why Andre Drummond scares teams, the upside at the position plus what he already offers make him the second most valuable prospect in the draft. Drummond is a rare physical specimen, really unequaled at his age. While Dwight Howard was as athletic at the same age, he wasn't as big. Height, weight, length, explosiveness, and mobility are all elite for the center position. Yes, he disappears for stretches and is inconsistent on offense, which needs a lot of work but he was the second best defensive player in the country last season (after Anthony Davis) and projects to be one of the best defensive centers in the league. It's not like Drummond is worthless on offense either, he can hit open jumpers and has shown the ability to hand the ball in the past, plus when you're as big, strong, and athletic as Drummond you're going to be able to power you're way into a couple baskets a game, or at worst be a weapon on lobs. What Drummond needs is polish and practice, which isn't surprising because he's 18 YEARS OLD. Even if Drummond doesn't improve at all, he'll still be a very good defender ala DeAndre Jordon, while his upside is Dwight Howard,
NBA Comparison: Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City

3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF Kentucky Fr. (6-7, 230)
Lets get it out of the way quickly: yes, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has an ugly jump shot with a gnarly hitch and only shot 26% from three. Now that's out of the way we can focus on all the other things Kidd-Gilchrist does. First, he has an amazing motor; going all out pursuing loose balls, fighting for rebounds, attacking the rim, challenging shots, grinding on defense, running the floor. Offensively, Kidd-Gilchrist excels at slashing to the rim and is a very good finisher, he also can over power wing players in the post. On defense, he's elite and frequently guarded the opponents point guard; in the NBA there's no reason to think he won't be able to guard positions 1 through 3 right away, while eventually being able to guard power forwards too once he gets stronger. On and off the court, Kidd-Gilchrist is a very hard worker and a natural leader who wants to win so badly that I wouldn't doubt he'll fix the jump shot, improve his ball handling and become a superstar.
NBA Comparison: Gerald Wallace, Brooklyn

4. Jeremy Lamb, SG Connecticut So. (6-5, 185)
I admit it, I'm not rational when it comes to Jeremy Lamb. Lamb is one of those players who floats gracefully around the court, he's just so smooth athletically and has tremendous movement skills. Offensively, he's got a pretty jumper that he can use of screens, the dribble, or spotting up, as well as good handles and a nice crossover. Lamb moves really well off the ball and has a polished offensive game that should score him 15 points a game right away, if not more, in the NBA. What makes Lamb so special though is his defense: great lateral movement and very long arms make him a nightmare on defense, with a little seasoning and strength, he could be a first team all defensive performer.
NBA Comparison: Paul George, Indiana

5. Thomas Robinson, PF Kansas Jr. (6-9, 235)
Thomas Robinson is one of the those players that is a joy to watch because of  how hard he plays on every possession. Playing hard is a skill and it's one that, when combined with long arms, explosiveness, and brute strength make you tough to stop. Robinson was pretty much unstoppable in college because of it, grabbing almost twelve rebounds a game and throwing down highlight dunk after highlight dunk. In the NBA, he'll need to refine his skill a little more, though I don't think that'll be a huge problem because he seemed to improve every game college. Robinson is the kind of player that helps you win in the NBA.
NBA Comparison: Kenneth Faried, Denver

6. Bradley Beal, SG Florida Fr. (6-5, 195)
I'm probably lower on Bradley Beal than most, but it's not because I'm don't like him, in fact I like him a lot, I'm just higher on some other players for various reason. However, Beal does have star potential, though it's all going to hinge on the jumper. In his freshman year at Florida, Beal did everything except what he hangs his hat on as a prospect: shooting. He shot a disappointing 34% from 3, though there's no reason to think that a guy with Beal's picture perfect form and long history of elite shooting won't turn it around. And if he does, you'll get a very complete guard who can handle, play the point some, and is a terrific rebounder with an NBA body and high basketball IQ
NBA Comparison: Eric Gordon, New Orleans

7. Harrison Barnes, SF North Carolina So. (6-8, 210)  
Harrison Barnes has been killed for what he doesn't do well, probably over compensation by those who voted him first team All-American and said he was the next Kobe. The truth is, Harrison Barnes is a natural scorer who averaged 17.1 points a game on the second best team in college basketball last season. Does he attack the rim as much as you'd like? No. Does he play aggressively all the time? No. But he's got great size, is a lock down defender, a very good shooter, plays hard, is smart, a leader, and isn't afraid of the big moments. Does he have superstar potential? Probably not, but he could average 20 points a game and make a few All Star teams.
NBA Comparison: Joe Johnson, Atlanta

8. Terrence Ross, G/F Washington So. (6-7, 190)
Everything about Terrence Ross screams NBA wing player. Ross has the prototypical size and athleticism of a wing player with a smoothness and coordination to his game that exemplifies what you look for in that position. Ross also has the game to fit the position as well, a silky jumper with deep range to go with slashing and finishing ability. On the defensive end, Ross is excellent too. He's got the quicks to stay in front of quicker guards and should be a very good defender. While Ross needs to get a little stronger to play the 3 on a regular basis, he competes on defense and is a very good rebounder for his position.
NBA Comparison: Jason Richardson, Orlando

9. Perry Jones III, F Baylor So. (6-11, 235)
Perry Jones is one of the more frustrating players in this draft, though the frustration for me isn't that he doesn't dominate the way his ability might dictate, for me the frustration is how poorly he was used in college. He's clearly more comfortable on the perimeter as small forward, but Scott Drew insisted on playing him at center. Another criticism of Jones is that he didn't take over games, that he shrunk from the moment. Watch the games, his guards didn't get him the ball, over dribbling and seeking their own shots. It's true, Jones has some work to do and needs to learn to use his abilities more aggressively, but put him in the right system where he's comfortable and you've got a super star.
NBA Comparison: Rudy Gay, Memphis

10. Damian Lillard, PG Weber State Jr. (6-2, 185)
This draft is really shallow on point guards, but if there's one guy that I'm fairly sure will stick in the league as more than a backup, it's Damian Lillard. He's a scoring point guard but that doesn't mean he can't run and offense, which I think is the underrated part of his game. At Weber State he was asked to be the main guy and he was the leading scorer in college basketball and the second most efficient player behind Anthony Davis. In the NBA Lillard will still be called on to score, but less, and be asked to run an offense, which due to his ability to penetrate, high basketball IQ, and lack of mistakes leads you to believe he certainly can do it.
NBA Comparison: Devin Harris, New Jersey

11. Dion Waiters, SG Syracuse So. (6-4, 215)
There's an obsession with players who can jump out of the gym or can blow by their defender, while strength and power are underrated. Dion Waiters is quick and can jump, but what makes him as a prospect is strength and power. Waiters is a very good ball handler and has a nice crossover to get to the rim, then he just overpowers the defender: a true power guard. Waiters needs to work on the consistency of his jumper as well as shot selection, but with the ability not only to get his own shot whenever he wants, but also to play the point some, there's a lot to love about his game.
NBA Comparison: James Harden, Oklahoma City

12. Jared Sullinger, PF Ohio State So. (6-9, 280)
Where Jared Sullinger goes in this draft will be a measuring stick of the value teams put on the safety of a pick. There's no doubt that Sullinger will bring rebounding, a high basketball IQ, and inside-outside scoring to whatever team takes him, but the question is will he ever be better than an average NBA starter. My guess is yes because I think he develops his jumpshot to the point that he's a legitimate stretch 4 with the same shooting/rebounding combination of Ryan Anderson with a little bit of Glen Davis help defense and below the rim scoring.
NBA Comparison: Ryan Anderson, Orlando

13. Terrence Jones, PF Kentucky So. (6-8, 245)
Terrence Jones is the ultimate love or hate prospect in this draft. Jones has tools to drool over: an NBA body with long arms and athleticism, versatility, ball handling, passing, rebounding and defensive acumen, as well as the potential to become a good shooter down the line (he's only adequate now). However, there's just as many how cringe at Jones' body language, wonder about his shot selection, and question his motor. As many worries there are about Jones, even his his worst case scenario he should provide rebounding, athleticism, and defense for a team.
NBA Comparison: Josh Smith, Atlanta

14. Andrew Nicholson, PF Saint Bonaventure Sr. (6-9, 235)
If I told you there was a power forward prospect in the NBA draft who had good to great physical tools, a great motor, was very productive in college, blocked 2 shots a game, shot 57% from the field and 43% from 3, you'd think he was going to be a lottery, if not a top 10 pick. However, that's not the case with Andrew Nicholson, despite having all that going for him and nothing in the way of weaknesses besides being a college senior. Nicholson is likely to go mid to late first round and I doubt that changes, however he'll be a steal at that point.
NBA Comparison: David West, Indiana

15. Arnett Moultrie, PF Mississippi State Jr. (6-11, 225)
When it comes to skills and physical ability, there aren't many players that are the equal of Arnett Moultrie: he's got prototype height, length, and athleticism for a power forward to go with a nice jumper, tremendous rebounding instincts, and inside touch. The reason Moultrie isn't going to go higher in the draft is perceived attitude issues and the fact that he's a late bloomer that he seemingly doesn't always play hard on defense (0.8 blocks a game for someone of him physical skill jumps out at you), but in the mid to late first round a prospect of his ability is a great  value.
NBA Comparison: Jason Thompson, Sacramento

16. John Henson, PF North Carolina Jr. (6-10, 210)
The way the NBA is evolving, it's becoming necessary to have an athletic, shot-blocking big man who can protect the rim, but also cover stretch 4s on the perimeter as well as the pick-and-roll. John Henson has the ability to be that kind of versatile defensive weapon because of his wingspan, athleticism, and lateral quickness. Add to that his terrific rebounding, great motor, and excellent timing and you've got a potential elite defender. Plus Henson has a improving jumpshot on the offensive end. So why isn't he a top 5 pick? He's very thin and has struggled to put on any weight over three college seasons, that and he's raw on offense and has a questionable basketball IQ.
NBA Comparison: JaVale McGee, Denver

17. Austin Rivers, SG Duke Fr. (6-4, 200)
One of the most polarizing prospects in the draft, Austin Rivers is a love him or hate him player. If you watch  the highlights, it's hard not to love him: he's got deep range on his jumpshot, good ball handling skills including a nasty crossover, and extreme confidence in himself with a desire to dominate. However, it's all the other stuff that causes people to sour on Rivers. The shot selection, the selfishness, the lack of elite physical tools, the perceived entitled attitude. Are all these criticisms fair? Probably not, but he's also given credit for abilities that also might not really be there.
NBA Comparison: O.J. Mayo, Memphis

18. Tyler Zeller, C North Carolina Sr. (7-0, 250)
Tyler Zeller is the embodiment of the word solid. Tyler Zeller does a little bit of everything well, though he may lack elite physical tools or a dominant skill (though he's very good running the floor), Zeller does it all. He can shoot out to 18 feet, has good touch around the basket and rebounds well, and while he doesn't project as a big time shot blocker, Zeller can protect the rim and draws charges. A low risk prospect.
NBA Comparison: Spencer Hawes, Philadelphia

19. Quincy Miller, SF Baylor Fr. (6-9, 210)
As a prospect there's a lot to like about Quincy Miller, but he's got one lingering issue: his knee. As a junior in high school, Miller was one of the best players in the country. However, Miler tore his ACL his senior year, and though he came back from it and had a really good freshman season, it wasn't up to the level of what he was. Now, when healthy he''s a top 5 talent in the draft due to his physical tools, ball handling skills, and shooting ability. ACL tears usually take two years to come back from so there's a good chance Miller returns to form, but it's a risk a lot of teams one want to take.
NBA Comparison: Al Harrington, Denver

20. Will Barton, SG Memphis So. (6-6, 175)
There are players who are just natural scorers, they have a nose for the ball and just figure out a way to get buckets. MarShon Brooks was one of those players in college and it translated to the NBA, this year that guy is Will Barton. Like Brooks, Barton is long and athletic, a great rebounder and a big time scorer who excels in mid-range scoring, can also slash and hit the occasional three pointer. Barton also really matured his junior season in terms of shot selection and should at least have a similar rookie season to Brooks, who was all rookie second team, though he needs to put on some weight.
NBA Comparison: MarShon Brooks, New Jersey

21. Meyers Leonard, C Illinois So. (7-0, 240)
The NBA is infatuated with centers, particularly those with high upside, and with good reason: there's such of a dearth of center talent in the league that if you get one, you have a massive advantage. Meyers Leonard is just the type of prospect that teams are going to fall in love with because he's big, long, and can jump. Leonard is a very good defensive player and has tools like quickness and touch that give you hope he'll turn into a offensive threat as well. A risky player to be sure, but a risk worth taking in the second half of the first round.
NBA Comparison: Byron Mullens, Bobcats

22. Kendall Marshall, PG North Carolina So. (6-4, 190)
Kendall Marshall is a classic case of comparing what player can do with what they can't do. If you focus on what he can't do, you see a point guard that isn't a penetrater, isn't super athletic, struggles to defend his position, and averaged 8.1 points per game in college, not a player that would even be considered in the draft. But that's how special the rest of what Marshall does is. He's was the best passer in college basketball and as pure of a point guard as there is who is terrific in transition and thinks pass first, second, and third. Add to that his improving jumpshot and you've got a quite useful player. A star? No, but someone that others players will love to play with and that can improve an offense without scoring a basket.
NBA Comparison: Greivis Vasquez, New Orleans

23. Evan Fournier, SG France (6-7, 205)
This is weakest draft as far as European players are concerned in years, with only one Euro likely to be taken anywhere near the first round. That one player is pretty good, however. Evan Fournier is a big wing player that excels at penetrating and finishing at the rim, as well as scoring from mid-range. Fournier has been very solid in France, scoring 14 points a game on shooting 55% from the field at only 19 years old. Long range shooting and defense are questions, but with Fourniers penetration and IQ are very appealing.
NBA Comparison: John Salmons, Sacramento

24. Jeff Taylor, SF Vanderbilt Sr. (6-7, 225)
The question about Jeff Taylor is whether he's turned to corner as a shooter. In his first two years  he flat out couldn't shoot (16% from three) but he improved his junior (35%) before finally hitting for 41% his senior season. If that shooting is legit, added to Taylor's length, and high level athleticism, lockdown defense, and slashing ability and you've got a starter in the NBA.
NBA Comparison: Nicolas Batum, Portland

25. Tony Wroten Jr, PG Washington Fr. (6-5, 205)
On pure talent and potential, there might not be a better prospect than Tony Wroten. He's big, pure point, with Rose/Westbrook/Wall level athleticism who flies up and down the court, finishes at the rim, and is a special passer with eyes in the back of his head. So what the problem? His shot is broken and will need to be completely overhauled and he tends to play out of control and turn the ball over a lot. If he can reign it in and learn to shoot, you've got and All Star, if not you've got a career backup who'll make as many bad plays as he will good.
NBA Comparison: John Wall, Washington

26. Marquis Teague, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-2, 180)
It's oversimplifying things to say that Marquis Teague is just like his brother, but they are very similar. Both are about the same size and both are very quick, explosive and athletic with pretty go defensive ability. Marquis is a better shooter at this stage of development, but he needs to put some work in on that front. I also think that Marquis is a more pure of a point guard than his brother. He certainly isn't perfect as a prospect but there's no denying the talent and potential, or the intangibles of being the starting point guard on a national championship team that only lost twice.
NBA Comparison: Jeff Teague, Atlanta

27. Moe Harkless, SF St. John's Fr. (6-8, 195)
Moe Harkless had a very good freshman season and decided to turn pro despite having some weaknesses in his game. Harkless has NBA level size, length, and athleticism and is a good enough slasher and rebounder to be a clear first round pick, but to be drafted in the top 15 picks like I've seen in a couple places is much to high for a player who can't shoot (22% from 3), isn't very efficient, and doesn't always play hard, especially on defense.
NBA Comparison: Trevor Ariza, New Orleans

28. Royce White, SF Iowa State Jr. (6-8, 240)
Royce White is one of the more unique players in this draft, on physical talent and skillset alone, he's a lottery pick, he's big, athletic, can play point forward (5 apg), rebound (9.3 rpg), and score (13.4 ppg). However, White has had numerous offcourt problems, was kicked off the Minnesota basketball team, and has anxiety issues due to a fear of flying. If White can keep it together off the court, he'll be a very good NBA player, if not he'll be out of the league quickly.
NBA Comparison: Tobias Harris, Milwaukee

29. Fab Melo, C Syracuse So. (7-0, 275)
There's no doubting the rare size and length of Fab Melo, nor that he has improved dramatically in two seasons at Syracuse. However, he is limited offensively, and has some weight concerns and off the court red flags. Melo is a very good shotblocker and can be a difference maker on the defensive end clogging the lane and taking charges, as well as being a good screener, but if it isn't a point blank layup or dunk he struggles. Melo could be a very good defensive weapon but he's also got a lot of work to do on offense.
NBA Comparison: Robin Lopez, Phoenix

30. Hollis Thompson, SF Georgetown Jr. (6-7, 205)
To succeed in the NBA, you need to have a least one bankable skill to stick, for Hollis Thompson it's his shooting ability. Thompson shot 43% from 3 in his college career and has range out to the NBA three point line. Add to that Thompson's size, length, and athleticism and you've got a prototype of the defense and shooting wing player that's become so popular in the NBA.
NBA Comparison: Dorell Wright, Golden State

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

2012 NBA Mock

1. New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis, PF Kentucky Fr. (6-10, 220)
This is huge for the Hornets and a great fit. Anthony Davis is the obvious pick here and he'll give Hornets a great core of Davis, Eric Gordon, and whoever the Hornets take with the number 10 overall pick.

2. Charlotte Bobcats: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF Kentucky Fr. (6-7, 220)
The Bobcats missed out on Anthony Davis, so they'll most likely end up with his teammate. Kidd-Gilchrist is a really hard worker and the type of competitor that Michael Jordan will love. Plus he's got the all out motor and athletic ability of a former Bobcat favorite Gerald Wallace. MKG is a jumpshot away from being a superstar, but he's such a hard worker I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up getting it.

3. Washington Wizards: Bradley Beal, SG Florida Fr. (6-5, 195)
The Wizards dropped one spot in the lottery, but it's actually not that bad for them because it means they won't have to decide between Brad Beal and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, instead they can just take the one that falls to them. Bradley Beal will be a nice fit with the pieces the Wizards already have and should move right into the starting lineup and contribute right away for Washington at the shooting guard position.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Harrison Barnes, SF North Carolina So. (6-8, 210)
The Cavaliers dropped down a spot in the lottery, so they'll most likely miss out on Bradley Beal and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The Cavs will target either Andre Drummond or Harrison Barnes, both of whom fit on the team. However, since Cleveland took Tristan Thompson last season, it seems likely they'll go with a perimeter based player this draft. Harrison Barnes didn't become the superstar that many thought he might, but he's still got 20 points a game potential and should make a great sidekick to Kyrie Irving

5. Sacramento Kings: Thomas Robinson, PF Kansas Jr. (6-9, 240)
The Kings didn't move up or down in the lottery, but because the Cavaliers moved out of the top 3, they'll be taking Harrison Barnes most likely and the Kings will have their choice of Thomas Robinson and Andre Drummond. Drummond has more potential, but he's best suited to play center, which is the same position as DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento's best player. Thomas Robinson would be a nice fit at power forward next to Cousins, bringing a high motor, toughness, rebounding, and interior scoring for a team that could lose it's second leading rebounder in Jason Thompson.

6. Portland Trail Blazers (from Brooklyn): Andre Drummond, C Connecticut Fr. (6-11, 275)
The Blazers probably have to most talent of any lottery team and they've got two picks in the top 11 with which to work to get back to a playoff level. Andre Drummond is the last of the high level prospects and a nice fit into the massive void of the center position. Drummond doesn't always bring it on offense, despite elite tools, but he's an outstanding defender and rebounder, which is more than a lot of teams have at center and a good fit with LaMarcus Aldridge.

7. Golden State Warriors: Perry Jones III, SF Baylor So. (6-11, 235)
Golden State are always a wildcard in the draft and this year the Warriors will be especially hard to predict if they stick at the 7 spot because they're sitting just outside the top tier of the best 6 prospects in the draft. So which way will they go? They've got players locked in for a couple years at all positions except small forward, so it makes sense they go that way. Perry Jones is better suited at small forward than what he played in college and is the type of athletic, skilled player that the Warriors seem to love.

8. Toronto Raptors: Jeremy Lamb, SG Connecticut So. (6-5, 185)
The Toronto Raptors are will have a great chance to make a big leap next season because they'll be adding essentially two top 10 pick, with this pick and last year's number 5 overall pick Jonas Valanciunas coming over from Europe. Jeremy Lamb has high upside because his shooting and handle could make him a big time scorer while his length, athleticism, and quickness allow him to be a lockdown defender. Also, this pick will allow DeMar DeRozan to move to small forward, a better fit, and Lamb can slide in as the shooting guard.

9. Detroit Pistons: Jared Sullinger, PF Ohio State So. (6-9, 280)
The Pistons have been content to sit back and hit singles and doubles, in the last couple drafts and since none of the high upside top prospects fall to them here, they'll stick with that. Jared Sullingers isn't a perfect prospect, but he'll always be able to rebound, score, and pass and would be a good offensive fit next to Greg Monroe, though the frontcourt defense might be suspect. It might not be a franchise changer, but Sullinger is one of the safest prospects in this draft.

10. New Orleans Hornets (from Minnesota): Damian Lillard, PG Weber State Jr. (6-2, 185)
The Hornets have a career back and a combo guard as their point guards, so with the second of their two top ten picks, they'll likely target and point. Damian Lillard has been on a huge rise this offseason and is most likely a top ten pick and the first point off the board because of his offensive ability and basketball IQ. Lillard isn't a pure point guard, but he definitely has the ability to play the position and score 20 points a game at his peak.

11.Portland Trail Blazers: Dion Waiters, SG Syracuse So. (6-4, 215)
The Blazers would love to end up with Bradley Beal with their first pick, but they didn't move up in the lottery. Since they don't get Beal, they'll target Jeremy Lamb, Dion Waiters, Terrence Ross, or Austin Rivers with their second lottery pick. Waiters has been on the rise in workouts and could be the second or third shooting guard off the board.

12. Milwaukee Bucks: Tyler Zeller, C North Carolina Sr. (7-0, 250)
When the Bucks traded often-injured Andrew Bogut mid-season, they traded their only legitimate center, leaving them with two shot-blocking, but offensively inept pseudo-centers in Larry Sanders and Ekpe Udoh, meaning they were getting defense but little else from the 5. Tyler Zeller isn't a perfect prospect, he can be pushed around in the paint and isn't an explosive player, but he's also a skilled offensive big man who can rebound and block shots, a rarity in the NBA. Plus Zeller is very good at running the floor, which will be an asset with Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis as your guards.

13. Phoenix Suns: Terrence Ross, SG Washington So. (6-7, 190)
With the Steven Nash era in Phoenix likely ending, the Suns will be searching for pieces to build around for the future. Terrence Ross has the size,smooth athleticism, handle, and shooting ability of a prototype NBA shooting guard, which is a serious area of need for Phoenix with Michael Redd and Shannon Brown leaving for free agency. If Ross reaches his potential, he could jumpstart the Suns rebuilding project.

14. Houston Rockets: Austin Rivers, SG Duke Fr. (6-4, 200)
The Rockets have two draft picks in this draft, so they'll continue to add even more trade assets, which they'll try to turn into a star (Pau Gasol?), but if they can't land one, they'll still need to find a backup to the often injured Kevin Martin, as Courtney Lee is entering free agency, and they don't have anything else there. Austin Rivers has his issues, but he can score from anywhere and will be a perfect scoring combo guard off the bench and can fill in for Martin if he continues to get banged up.

15. Philadelphia 76ers: Terrence Jones, PF Kentucky So. (6-8, 245)
The 76ers have maxed out the talent on their current roster, so unless they make a big trade (possible, but unlikely) they'll have to swing for the fences in the draft with hopes of landing a major contributor. Terrence Jones isn't boom or bust because he'll always be able to contribute, but he's got a really high upside because of a combination of length, athleticism, shooting, ball handling, rebounding and defense.

16. Houston Rockets (from New York): John Henson, PF North Carolina Jr. (6-10, 210)
The Rockets have talent at a number of positions, but they lack a long, athletic, shot blocking power forward. John Henson will be quite a defensive weapon and he's gotten better on offense each year, if Kevin McHale can continue that development he could be a star, but if not Henson will still be one of the best rim protectors in the league.

17. Dallas Mavericks: Tony Wroten, PG Washington Fr. (6-5, 205)
While most believe that Dallas will be the free agent destination of Deron Williams, but nothing will be certain at the time of the draft. What is certain is that Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, and Delonte West will all be free agents this summer and the Mavericks will be in desperate need of backcourt players. Tony Wroten is extremely talented but is also raw and somewhat wild, he's a high upside lottery ticket at this point in the draft and could be a great asset for Dallas.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Utah): Quincy Miller, SF Baylor Fr. (6-9, 210)
The Timberwolves would love for one of the top 5 shooting guards to fall to them, but it probably won't happen. In that case, they'll target the best player available. Quincy Miller has top 5 upside and there's a chance he goes in the top 10 if he does well in workouts, but right now questions about his fit and the health of his knee have dropped him right now. Miller will fit well on Minnesota, taking Michael Beasley's spot at small forward.

19. Orlando Magic: Moe Harkless, SF St. John's Fr. (6-8, 200)
The Magic are a wildcard team because they're just as likely to make a massive, crippling trade as they are to sit on their hands and do nothing. Moe Harkless isn't a typical Magic player because he isn't a great shooter, but he's the type of player they need. An athletic, high motor slashing wing who can get to the rim and excells in transition.

20. Denver Nuggets: Arnett Moultrie, PF Mississippi State Jr. (6-11, 225)
The Nuggets don't have a ton of needs, with great depth and young players two deep at most positions. Therefore, they're able to draft for upside. Arnett Moultrie has huge potential and could be a lottery pick due to his inside-out game, rebounding, and physical tools. It's possible, due to some character concerns, that he could fall down here to the Nuggets.

21. Boston Celtics: Fab Melo, C Syracuse So. (7-0, 275)
Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen are going to be free agents this summer, so the Celtics will likely be building around Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley, and Paul Pierce without much else on the roster. These two back to back picks will be very important for the Celtics. One of their biggest areas of need is center, so if a true center like Fab Melo is available for them, they'll leap at the opportunity to draft him.

22. Boston Celtics (from L.A. Clippers): Evan Fournier, SG France (6-7, 200)
The next step in the Celtics rebuilding after the Big 3 era is figuring out a way to get consistent offense, because even with Allen and Garnett, they struggled to score. Evan Fournier is a tremendous offensive player, a big slashing wing that can get to the rim, find teammates, and score in the in between game. He's got big upside and wants to come to the NBA right away, a nice high upside pick who has a chance to be a star and a steal.

23. Atlanta Hawks: Jeff Taylor, SF Vanderbilt Sr. (6-7, 225)
Is this the offseason the Hawks finally shake up their roster with a big trade? No matter what trades they make, one thing is sure, this team needs wing depth. Jeff Taylor is long, extremely athletic with lockdown defensive ability and shot 42% from 3 this season. Taylor will be an excellent bench option and likely push for a starting spot ahead of Marvin Williams.

24. Cleveland Cavaliers (from L.A. Lakers): Meyers Leonard, C Illinois So. (7-0, 240)
Last year the Cavaliers passed on a true center, Jonas Valanciunas, only to see their starting center go down for the season and be forced to play scrap heaps guys and players out of position. Anderson Varejao will be back from injury, by he's had season ending injuries the last two years and doesn't have much in way of a back up. Meyers Leonard is raw, but has huge upside.

25. Memphis Grizzlies: Kendall Marshall, PG North Carolina So. (6-4, 190)
The Grizzlies are locked in at all their starting positions, so they'll just be looking for bench depth. Backup point guard is particularly a problem, with Gilbert Arenas manning the spot last year. Kendall Marshall is a great value here, he only falls because of a lack of need for point guards, and is very similar to a former Grizzlies backup point guard Greivis Vasquez, who really worked well in their system.

26. Indiana Pacers: Doron Lamb, SG Kentucky So. (6-4, 195)
The Pacers could lose both Leandro Barbosa and Dahntay Jones to free agency this summer, so they'll need to restock in the backcourt. Plus, despite the fact that they were one of the best three point shooting teams in the NBA last season, they were in the bottom third in attempts. Doron Lamb is one of the best shooters in this draft (it's him or John Jenkins) and can score in a variety of ways.

27. Miami Heat: Draymond Green, SF Michigan State Sr. (6-6, 235)
The Heat need a legitimate center who can score and defend, however so do half the teams in the league, as they just aren't easy to come by, especially late in the first round. The other big need for the Heat is bench help, as their bench has been pathetic this season. Draymond Green has the potential to be a great role player because of the shooting, rebounding, passing, and leadership he brings to the table. He'll never be a star but he'll bring it every game.

28. Oklahoma City Thunder: Hollis Thompson, SF Georgetown Jr. (6-8, 205)
Hollis Thompson will most likely never be a star, but he's a dead eye shooter with the size, length, and athleticism to guard 2s and 3s, these skills alone should keep him in the league, as it has James Jones, Dorell Wright, James Posey, and Chris Singleton. The Thunder could use another shooter on the wing and Thompson would fit in nice OKC.

29. Chicago Bulls: Marquis Teague, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-2, 180)
Derrick Rose will be out  for the first couple of month of the season next year and probably won't be himself until 2013 season. Not only will Marquis Teague help to pick up that slack while Rose is out, he'll be a dynamic backup and possible trade chip down the line, especially if he reaches his considerable upside as a super-quick, athletic point guard with good defensive ability. Think a slightly less athletic, purer point guard version of Eric Bledsoe.

30. Golden State Warriors (from San Antonio): Will Barton, SG Memphis So. (6-6, 170)
The Warriors are in a position to grab the best player who falls in the draft with this last pick of the final round. Will Barton is a great value here and will add some much needed backcourt depth, with Brandon Rush and Nate Robinson set to be free agents. Barton has really high upside, he's athletic, a natural scorer and a great rebounder who'll provide a nice change of pace to Klay Thompson.

Friday, June 17, 2011

2011 NBA Mock Draft: 6/18

First Round
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (from L.A. Clippers): Kyrie Irving, PG Duke Fr. (6-3½, 191)

No change here. Despite the mess left by the LeBacle, the future is bright is Cleveland after they won the lottery and also ended up with another top 4 pick. Kyrie Irving seems to be the favorite to be the number 1 pick, though Derrick Williams will get a long look as well (don't believe the Kanter at 1 rumors). The Cavaliers have Baron Davis and Ramon Sessions both of whom were actually very good this year with 17 and 19 PERs respectively, but neither are foundation players. Irving doesn't do anything elitely, but he does everything well and most of all, he can run a team as a pure point guard.

2. Minnesota Timberwolves: Derrick Williams, F Arizona So. (6-8¾, 248)
If Kyrie Irving goes number 1, and all signs point to it, the Timberwolves will be hoping to find a trade partner to take on this pick. Indeed, they've already begun shopping it for veterans. If they do end up drafting here, Derrick Williams is most likely going to be the pick despite the fact that he doesn't fit into the starting lineup as Minnesota has Kevin Love to play the 4 and Michael Beasley to play small forward, plus they also have Wes Johnson, a natural 3 playing out of position at shooting guard. Still though, Williams is too good a player to pass on. Take the talent and figure out a trade for Beasley or Johnson later.

3. Utah Jazz (from New Jersey Nets): Brandon Knight, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-3¼, 177)
There's a chance that the Jazz go big here, but with Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, and Derrick Favors all locked in for several years, the Jazz may go in another direction. The Jazz need a point guard of the future (Devin Harris is too inconsistent and injury prone to build around) so they'll be targeting either Brandon Knight or Kemba Walker here. The Jazz have shown in the past that they prefer bigger point guards with shooting ability, so Knight makes more sense than Walker. Plus Knight, if given the chance to develop behind Harris for a year or two, has a much higher upside.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Enes Kanter, F/C Turkey (6-11¼, 259)
The latest buzz is that the Cavs might take Jonas Valanciunas, but the same sources are reporting that they might take Enes Kanter at 1, so why wouldn't they also take him at 4? Cleveland seems to want Kanter, even though they have a solid center and power forward in Anderson Verajao and J.J. Hickson respectively, though neither is a go-to offensive player, so that makes sense. They'll hope Enes Kanter can develop into an inside/outside offensive threat that can compliment Hickson's bouncy energy and Varajao's defensive ability very well.


5. Toronto Raptors: Jan Vesely, F Czech Republic (6-11, 240)
Toronto GM Bryan Colangelo was in Belgrade to watch Jan Vesely play in the Serbian league finals. Vesely played well (18 points, 5 rebounds), his team won the league, and Colangelo was reportedly impressed. Colangelo also attended Bismack Biyombo's workout the next day and it appears that they pick might be coming down to these two players. I know Kemba Walker has gotten some hype at this pick, but if Colangelo wants to actually improve his team, he needs to upgrade his teams defense. Biyombo would be better in that respect, but Vesely will also be a boost and is a better overall prospect.

6. Washington Wizards: Jonas Valanciunas, F/C Lithuania (7-0, 244)
The Wizards are determined to follow the Oklahoma City Thunder mold of building a team, so now that they got their star in John Wall they'll attempt to surround him with talent. The way the Thunder did this was by mixing "safe" picks (Jeff Green, James Harden) with high risk, high reward prospects (Serge Ibaka, Russell Westbrook) and I expect the Wizards to do the same. They did it last year in fact, taking a safe player in Trevor Booker and a risky one in Kevin Seraphin in the first round. Watch and see who the Wizards take with their first pick, if it's a guy like Jonas Valanciunas, I'd expect them to take a solid college player with their 18th pick. Or if they go with a guy like Kawhi Leonard or Klay Thompson, then look for a high upside prospect like Donatas Motiejunas later on.

7. Sacramento Kings: Kemba Walker, PG UCONN Jr. (6-1, 184)
The Kings have finally figured out two things: Tyreke Evans isn't a point guard and leadership and character are important. They've draft talented players with questionable intangibles in the past like Evans, DeMarcus Cousins, and Hassan Whiteside and have paid the price on occasion. Kemba Walker is the type of vocal, hardworking leader that will do wonders for this team. He's also a good fit on the court too because of the experience he got at Connecticut playing with the ball in his hands but also off the ball, which is important because we know that Evans will like to have the ball in his hands.

8. Detroit Pistons: Bismack Biyombo, F/C Congo (6-9½, 245)
Now that the Pistons have their ownership problems (mostly) figured out, Joe Dumars is ready to swing for the fences. To me that means they're going with either Bismack Biyombo or Jonas Valanciunas. Biyombo is the defensive presence they've been looking for while Valanciunas has higher upside (but with greater risk) as an overall player. Having seen how Dumars has down things in the past and how well Biyombo would fit with Greg Monroe, who is already a good offensive player but struggles on defense some, I think Biyombo will be the pick.

9. Charlotte Bobcats: Kawhi Leonard, SF San Diego State So. (6-7, 227)
The buzz is that the Bobcats are looking to go with a "safe" pick, but it'll be hard for them to pass on a prospect like Kawhi Leonard, who is somewhat safe in that he'll be able to defend and rebound from day 1, but also has some risk (and upside) in that Leonard's offensive game hasn't completely developed. If it does, you've got an All-Star, if it doesn't you've still got a young Gerald Wallace-type.

10. Milwaukee Bucks: Alec Burks, SG Colorado So. (6-6, 193)
The Milwaukee Bucks had an incredible rash of injuries, with almost every core player missing time with injuries. When completely healthy, the Bucks have one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and a plethora of three point shooters but they lack a player who can create offense for themselves and others off the dribble. Brandon Jennings can create for others but struggles to finish at the rim, while Corey Maggette can score easily but only passes if all other options are extinguished. Alec Burks is a dynamic slasher who can finish at the rim and also draws a ton of fouls (a facet of the NBA game), yet he also spent some time running the offense at Colorado. I have Burks as the fourth best prospect in my rankings so obviously, this pick would be a great value filling a big need in my mind.

11. Golden State Warriors: Klay Thompson, G/F Washington State Jr. (6-7½, 206)
Monta Ellis is being openly shopped by the Warriors, but even if he stays in Oakland, the Warriors will be looking for a bigger 2 guard/wing to play behind Ellis and Dorell Wright. The Warriors reportedly love Thompson and it's easy to see why, he's big, can shoot, has a high basketball IQ, all things that fit well for the Warriors. Frontcourt help is also possible here, with anyone from Tristan Thompson to Marcus Morris in play.

12. Utah Jazz: Chris Singleton, SF Florida State Jr. (6-9, 230)
The Jazz could lose both C.J. Miles and Andrei Kirolenko to free agency and will be looking to replace the defense and shooting they bring to the table. Chris Singleton is the best defender in the draft, as versatile as Kirolenko, and can hit NBA 3 pointers at least as effectively as Miles. Singleton could go as high as 6 to the Wizards so this is a good value for Utah and fills a big need.

13. Phoenix Suns: Tristan Thompson, PF Texas Fr. (6-8¾, 227)
Shooting guard is the Suns biggest need, but with Alec Burks and Klay Thompson off the board, there isn't really one worth taking. The Suns would like to improve their interior defense and rebounding but also need some upside for a rebuilding process. Thompson's defense and rebounding (especially offensive) are NBA ready but he's also got some nice upside on offense. Thompson moves very well off the ball and will look really good finishing pick and rolls with Steve Nash.

14. Houston Rockets: Jordan Hamilton, G/F Texas So. (6-8½, 228)
The Rockets would love to get a center, but unless they want to reach for Nikola Vucevic (a possibility) they'll have to address a different need. Backup point guard and small forward are the other two areas they'd like to upgrade. Jordan Hamilton can arguably play the 2, 3, and 4 positions and has the shooting ability that the Rockets like, he's also the best value at this point as most scouts have him as a lottery pick.

15. Indiana Pacers: Jimmer Fredette, PG BYU Sr. (6-2½, 196)
This is apparently the floor for Fredette, though I think he's a luxury pick for the Pacers. Yes, they need to find a player who can take and make a big shot for them, but unless they plan on playing Fredette big minutes at shooting guard (a bad idea) they'll be drafting a backup point guard when they have major needs in their frontcourt (another bad idea) and even if they plan on playing Fredette at the end of games at shooting guard, they'll have two small guards with him and Darren Collison playing at the same time (yet another bad idea) but still, it's hard to imagine that Fredette will be a bust, he'll be sure to contribute some scoring and leadership, so it's hard to argue with a team jumping on that with the 15th pick of a weak draft.

16. Philadelphia 76ers: Marcus Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-8¾, 230)
This is likely the floor for Marcus Morris, who almost every scout likes but few really love. That's kind of the thing with Morris, he's a polished scorer, but not on a go-to NBA level and he can rebound, but isn't elite. He's solid at everything, but doesn't stand out in any way. Still, he's not going to bust and is a nice fit in Philadelphia, who are looking to add depth to their frontcourt.

17. New York Knicks: Kenneth Faried, PF Morehead State Sr. (6-7½, 225)
If the Knicks want to make it out of the first round of the playoffs, they need to upgrade their defense and rebounding. Despite being only about 6-8, Kenneth Faried was the best rebounder in college basketball by far due to a 9 foot standing reach (which is better than Al Horford, Joakim Noah, David Lee, and Blake Griffin among others) and a nonstop motor. Faried also blocked almost 2 and a half shots a game and has the mobility/quickness to be a great pick-and-roll defender.

18. Washington Wizards (from Atlanta): Marshon Brooks, SG Providence Sr. (6-5¼, 195)
If the Wizards don't resign Nick Young, it will leave them with basically John Wall and Jordan Crawford in their backcourt. Crawford is better suited to being a third guard and Brooks would be a cheaper replacement for Young, a player Brooks is compared to frequently. Brooks is a nice fit with the Wizards because he's use to playing in an uptempo offense and is a very good spot up shooter, two skills Washington wants in the players it's putting around Wall.

19. Charlotte Bobcats (from New Orleans): Markieff Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-9¼, 241)
The Bobcats frontcourt is a mess at this point, they've basically got Tyrus Thomas and D.J. White and that's it. Markieff Morris isn't as polished as his brother (there's a chance that Marcus is taken by Charlotte at 9) but he's bigger, longer, more athletic, a better defender and at least statistically, actually a better shooter.

20. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Memphis): Donatas Motiejunas, F Lithuania (7-0, 220)
It's hard to imagine that Donatas Motiejunas falls this far, but there just aren't a lot of teams looking for his skillset, though I could see the Suns, Wizards, Pacers, 76ers, or Jazz taking him. The Timberwolves have the best foreign scouts in the NBA and are looking to get more skilled in their frontcourt. Motiejunas certainly is skilled, probably the most skilled big in this draft, and is a tremendous, high upside value at this point in the draft.

21. Portland Trailblazers: Nikola Vucevic, C USC Jr. (6-11¾, 260)
The Trailblazers seem to be snakebit when it comes to the health of their bigs, so don't be surprised if they try to add depth in the draft. Nikola Vucevic is getting a ton of buzz and could go in the lottery. It's easy to see why, he's got center size and length (7-4½ wingspan), can score inside and out and rebound. If he was a better athlete or had a longer track record, he'd be a lock for the lottery.

22. Denver Nuggets: JaJuan Johnson, PF Purdue Sr. (6-10, 220)
The Nuggets most likely won't be bringing back Kenyon Martin, so they'll be looking for some frontcourt depth. JaJuan Johnson is long and athletic, can cover a lot of ground of defense but also has a nice face up game. I've compared him in the past to Taj Gibson because he can block shots and hit long 2s, both of which are very valuable in today's NBA and were things that Martin did for Denver.

23. Houston Rockets (from Orlando): Jeremy Tyler, F/C USA (6-10½, 262)
The Rockets need to find a center as Yao Ming is gone and they don't have anything else. Jeremy Tyler is a swing-for-the-fences pick but he's got NBA center size and should be able to play defense from an early stage with some upside to develop into a solid offensive player as well.

24. Oklahoma City Thunder: Tobias Harris, F Tennessee Fr. (6-7¾, 223)
The Thunder are at their best when playing unselfishly on offense and hustling on defense, they also have a need for a back up to Kevin Durant, Tobias Harris isn't going to wow you with his scoring ability, but he does all the little things well, has a high basketball IQ and can rebound and play both forward positions. A little like former Thunder forward Jeff Green.

25. Boston Celtics: Nikola Mirotic, SF Serbia (6-10, 226)
Unless Jeremy Tyler or Nikola Vucevic are here, there isn't really a player who'll help the Celtics as presently constituted. However, with Doc Rivers sticking around for a few more years, they'll be looking to remain competitive post-Big Three. Nikola Mirotic won't be coming to the NBA anytime soon, but he's very skilled and would be a lottery pick if he didn't have a contract in Europe.

26. Dallas Mavericks: Darius Morris, PG Michigan So. (6-5¼, 190)
Believe it or not, Jason Kidd won't be playing forever and no matter how much the Mavericks love J.J. Barea and Roddy Beaubois, neither guy is a starting point guard in the NBA. Darius Morris is a similar player to Kidd in that he's got great size and court vision but lacks elite athleticism. Morris also needs to follow in the path of Kidd and improve his jumpshot.

27. New Jersey Nets (from L.A. Lakers): Josh Selby, PG Kansas Fr. (6-3, 195)
The Nets will be swinging for the fences here and hoping they can find a solid player to pair with Deron Williams and Brook Lopez. Josh Selby could go as high as 17 but falls due to the myriad of questions surrounding him. He's best with the ball in his hands but can play alongside Williams while providing some scoring off the bench.

28. Chicago Bulls (from Miami): Justin Harper, F Richmond Sr. (6-8¾, 228)
It was clear in the playoffs that the Bulls need to find a way to get more scoring and space the floor with a stretch 4 and a shooting guard who can actually shoot and create his own shot. Justin Harper is a great value here as a 6-9, Rashard Lewis-type forward who shot 45% from 3 in college last season. Harper has his warts, he prefers to play on the perimeter and isn't a great rebounder but as a role player to stretch the floor, he has a lot of value.

29. San Antonio Spurs: Davis Bertans, SF Latvia (6-10, 210)
In the past couple drafts, the Spurs have taken some shots on high upside unknowns and kept them overseas to develop. Davis Bertans is a tremendous shooter, has a high basketball IQ, and a high overall skill level. He's also only 18 years, so there's a lot of upside here as well.

30. Chicago Bulls: Reggie Jackson, G Boston College Jr. (6-3, 205)
The Bulls clearly need to find a well rounded shooting guard who can create his own shot, shoot, and defend. Reggie Jackson, who had lottery buzz not too long ago, is a combo guard who can play alongside Rose due to his shooting ability, but can also create off the dribble and will be able to check 2s due to freak athleticism and a 7-0 wingspan.

Friday, June 10, 2011

2011 NBA Big Board

Top 30
1. Derrick Williams, F Arizona So. (6-8¾, 248)
2. Kyrie Irving, PG Duke Fr. (6-3½, 191)
3. Jan Vesely, F Czech Republic (6-11, 240)
4. Alec Burks, SG Colorado So. (6-6, 193)
5. Tristan Thompson, PF Texas Fr. (6-8¾, 227)
6. Enes Kanter, F/C Turkey (6-11¼, 259)
7. Brandon Knight, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-3¼, 177)
8. Kemba Walker, PG UCONN Jr. (6-1, 184)
9. Kawhi Leonard, SF San Diego State So. (6-7, 227)
10. Jonas Valanciunas, PF Lithuania (6-10, 230)
11. Chris Singleton, SF Florida State Jr. (6-9, 230)
12. Jordan Hamilton, SF Texas So. (6-8½, 228)
13. Klay Thompson, SG Washington State Jr. (6-7½, 206)
14. Bismack Biyombo, F/C Congo (6-9½, 245)
15. Donatas Motiejunas, F Lithuania (7-0, 220)
16. Kenneth Faried, PF Morehead State Sr. (6-7½, 225)
17. JaJuan Johnson, PF Purdue Sr. (6-10, 220)
18. Marcus Morris, F Kansas Jr. (6-8¾, 230)
19. Marshon Brooks, SG Providence Sr. (6-5¼, 195)
20. Jimmer Fredette, PG BYU Sr. (6-2½, 196)
21. Markieff Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-9¼, 241)
22. Tobias Harris, F Tennessee Fr. (6-7¾, 223)
23. Josh Selby, PG Kansas Fr. (6-3, 195)
24. Justin Harper, F Richmond Sr. (6-8¾, 228)
25. Charles Jenkins, G Hofstra Sr. (6-3¼, 216)
26. Tyler Honeycutt, SF UCLA So. (6-8¼, 187)
27. Reggie Jackson, PG Boston College Jr. (6-3, 205)
28. Malcolm Lee, G UCLA Jr. (6-5½, 198)
29. Darius Morris, PG Michigan So. (6-5¼, 190)
30. Shelvin Mack, PG Butler Jr. (6-2½, 209)

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

First Round
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (from L.A. Clippers): Kyrie Irving, PG Duke Fr. (6-3, 191)
Despite the mess left by the LeBacle, the future is bright is Cleveland after they won the lottery and also ended up with another top 4 pick. Kyrie Irving seems to be the favorite to be the number 1 pick, though Derrick Williams will get a long looks as well. The Cavaliers have Baron Davis and Ramon Sessions both of whom were actually very good this year with 17 and 19 PERs respectively, but neither are foundation players. Irving doesn't do anything elitely, but he does everything well and most of all, he can run a team as a pure point guard.

2. Minnesota Timberwolves: Derrick Williams, F Arizona So. (6-9, 248)
If Kyrie Irving goes number 1, and all signs point to it, the Timberwolves will be hoping to find a trade partner to take on this pick. Indeed, they've already begun shopping it for veterans. If they do end up drafting here, Derrick Williams is most likely going to be the pick despite the fact that he doesn't fit into the starting lineup as Minnesota has Kevin Love to play the 4 and Michael Beasley to play small forward, plus they also have Wes Johnson, a natural 3 playing out of position at shooting guard. Still though, Williams is too good a player to pass on. Take the talent and figure out a trade for Beasley or Johnson later.

3. Utah Jazz (from New Jersey): Brandon Knight, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-3, 177)
Enes Kanter is the best prospect available here, but with Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, and Derrick Favors all locked in for several years, the Jazz may go in another direction. The difference between Kanter and Brandon Knight or Kemba Walker isn't quite the same as Derrick Williams and the rest of the field, so unlike the Timberwolves at 2, it's worth it for the Jazz, who need a point guard of the future (Devin Harris is too inconsistent and injury prone to build around) to take a slightly lower rated prospect at an area of need. The Jazz have shown in the past that they prefer bigger point guards with shooting ability, so Knight makes more sense than Walker.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Enes Kanter, C Turkey (6-11, 259)
This would be the dream scenario for the Cavs where they'd be getting the two of the best players in the draft and two cornerstones to build around at positions of need. Only if by some miracle they could pair Kyrie Irving with Derrick Williams would they be more pleased. Cleveland have a good center and power forward in Anderson Verajao and J.J. Hickson respectively, but neither is a go-to offensive player. Enes Kanter can develop into an inside/outside offensive threat that can compliment Hickson's bouncy energy and Varajao's elite defensive ability very well.

5. Toronto Raptors: Bismack Biyombo, PF/C Congo (6-9, 245)
The Raptors should be considering a couple players here, but it's clear that if Bismack Biyombo checks out as a legitimate defensive presence in the paint, Toronto has to take him. They've been a joke of a defensive team for a while, including being last in defensive efficiency the last two seasons. They've tried to find a defensive force to rebound and block shots for a couple of years, trying everyone from undersized tough guys Reggie Evans and Joey Dorsey to long armed projects Solomon Alabi and Alexis Ajinca but without much luck. Biyombo may not be able to do much else, but he should be able to provide defensive from day 1 with the upside of a Ben Wallace.

6. Washington Wizards: Jan Vesley, F Czech Republic (6-11, 240)
The Wizards dropped a few spots in the lottery but should be happy if they end up with Jan Vesely. Watching the Wizards last year, the lack of energy and hustle by players not named John Wall or Trevor Booker was disturbing. Vesely is a big time athlete who flies up and down the floor and crushes dunks. He's also got the ability to play and defend the 3 and 5, can shoot out to the NBA range and is always hustling. Vesley also has a high basketball IQ, another thing many of the Wizards lack. He'll be a good fit next to John Wall and another step in the rebuilding of the Wizards.

7. Sacramento Kings: Kemba Walker, PG UCONN Jr. (6-1, 184)
The Kings have finally figured out two things: Tyreke Evans isn't a point guard and leadership and character are important. They've draft talented players with questionable intangibles in the past like Evans, DeMarcus Cousins, and Hassan Whiteside and have paid the price on occasion. Kemba Walker is the type of vocal, hardworking leader that will do wonders for this team. He's also a good fit on the court too because of the experience he got at Connecticut playing with the ball in his hands but also off the ball, which is important because we know that Evans will like to have the ball in his hands.

8. Detroit Pistons: Tristan Thompson, PF Texas Fr. (6-9, 227)
The Pistons would love for Bismack Biyombo to be available when they pick, but Thompson will bring a similar level of athleticism and length to Detroit's frontcourt but with considerably more offensive upside. The Pistons were at their best when they started Chris Wilcox at power forward next to Greg Monroe at center because Wilcox's athletic ability and activity helped offset some of Monroe's defensive struggles. Monroe is the future for Detroit and they'd be wise to find another young player to compliment him.

9. Charlotte Bobcats: Kawhi Leonard, SF San Diego State So. (6-7, 227)
The problem with the Charlotte Bobcats is that they have no plan, or if they do it doesn't make any sense. They draft project players like Gerald Henderson, bury them on the bench with no chance to develop. Then they trade Gerald Wallace, their one good player, for backups and low level draft picks. Charlotte needs to start acquiring young, cheap talent and avoid the terrible contracts that have killed him. Kawhi Leonard has been compared to a young Wallace and would be a nice fit in Charlotte.

10. Milwaukee Bucks: Alec Burks, SG Colorado So. (6-6, 193)
The Milwaukee Bucks had an incredible rash of injuries, with almost every core player missing time with injuries. When completely healthy, the Bucks have one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and a plethora of three point shooters but they lack a player who can create offense for themselves and others off the dribble. Brandon Jennings can create for others but struggles to finish at the rim, while Corey Maggette can score easily but only passes if all other options are extinguished. Alec Burks is a dynamic slasher who can finish at the rim and also draws a ton of fouls, yet he also spent some time running the offense at Colorado.

11. Golden State Warriors: Jonas Valanciunas, PF Lithuania (6-10, 230)
The Warriors don't have a coach yet, but barring an entirely dissimilar hire to previous regimes, like Larry Brown or something, it's safe to assume they'll play uptempo, pick and roll based offense again. Obviously, power forward isn't a big need for Golden State because they have David Lee, but depth is a real issue. Jonas Valanciunas is raw, but he's a killer pick and roll big and can really run. He's a nice fit for the Warriors offense and fills a need.

12. Utah Jazz: Jordan Hamilton, SF Texas So. (6-9, 228)
One of the underrated big winners from the NBA combine was Jordan Hamilton. Not only did he shoot very well but he also measured at nearly 6-9 in shoes. Given his well rounded offensive game and rebounding ability, it's not out of the question that Hamilton will be able to play shooting guard, small forward (his natural position) and stretch 4 in the NBA. Both C.J. Miles and Andrei Kirolenko are free agents this summer and it's not out of the question that neither of them will be back. Hamilton not only fills a need on the wing, but at Texas, he also excelled in a very similar system to what the Jazz run.

13. Phoenix Suns: Marcus Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-9, 230)
Many college combo forwards has become unfairly labeled as tweeners, when the definition of both are completely opposite. A combo forward is able to play both the small and power forward positions, while a tweener is stuck between positions, not big or strong enough to play the 4, but too slow or lacking the perimeter skills to play the 3. Marcus Morris is insistent that he is a small forward, but his value lies in his ability to play both and be a matchup problem. The Suns offense is based off of exploiting those favorable matchups, pick-and-roll, and shooting. Morris has the ability to be a standout player in all three of those categories.

14. Houston Rockets: Chris Singleton, SF Florida State Jr. (6-9, 230)
The word is that the Rockets are looking for a big, but with Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson, and Jordan Hill they don't have a need for a power forward and there's no centers anywhere close worth taking. After Shane Battier was traded the Rockets lacked a shutdown wing defender, as Chase Budinger struggles to check wings. Chris Singleton, the best defensive player in college basketball, has been great in workouts and had a terrific combine, is really on the rise and could go as high as 6 to the Wizards.

15. Indiana Pacers: Markieff Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-9, 241)
The Pacers are losing Josh McRoberts, Jeff Foster, and Solomon Jones to free agency this summer and are looking to get more of a defensive presence in their frontcourt than Tyler Hansbrough can provide. Markieff Morris tested poorly at the combine, registering only a 31 inch vertical but the tape shows him to be more athletic than that as well as a very good post defender who can also knock down 3 pointers on the offensive end. Morris fills a need for the Pacers and is a good value with little risk.

16. Philadelphia 76ers: Kenneth Faried, PF Morehead State Sr. (6-8, 225)
The 76ers have a offensively skilled group of big men but lack a dominant rebounder or defender in the paint. They ranked 18th in rebound rate and 23rd in blocked shots despite having a .500 record last season. If Philadelphia wants to take the next step, they to bolster their rebounding and defense. Despite being only 6-8, Kenneth Faried was the best rebounder in college basketball by far due to a 9 foot standing reach (which is better than Al Horford, Joakim Noah, David Lee, and Blake Griffin among others) and a nonstop motor. Faried also blocked almost 2 and a half shots a game and has the mobility to be a shut down defender.

17. New York Knicks: Jimmer Fredette, PG BYU Sr. (6-2, 205)
Unless he goes into workouts and consistently shuts down opposing prospects in 3-on-3s, there isn't going to be much more to learn about Jimmer Fredette. He is what he is, a great shooter and crafty scorer but a defensive liability. Fortunately for Fredette, there are teams that don't mind that, with Mike D'Antoni and the New York Knicks leading the pack. Fredette cult status and electric play ability will make him a favorite in Madison Square Garden and he'll get a lot of open looks playing with Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire.

18. Washington Wizards (from Atlanta): Klay Thompson, SG Washington State Jr. (6-7, 206)
Despite averaging 16.3 points a game after being traded to the Wizards, Jordan Crawford's best fit is as a scoring combo guard off the bench. He's just to shot happy to have in your starting lineup. Klay Thompson has similar scoring ability and is one of the best shooters in the draft (a must if you play with John Wall) but also has a high basketball IQ and should lead to more off a cohesive offense for the Wizards.

19. Charlotte Bobcats (from New Orleans): Josh Selby, PG Kansas Fr. (6-3, 195)
This is probably the floor for Selby, who's blown up workouts and had an awesome combine (42 inch vertical) to answer some of the questions scouts had about him after a disastrous season at Kansas. He'll be in play for the Rockets, Knicks, and even Suns but because of how this mock falls, he's available for the Bobcats, who are desperate for a point guard and wouldn't hesitate to take the high upside Selby, who has the potential to be the best player in this draft if things break right.

20. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Memphis): Donatas Motiejunas, F Czech Republic (7-0, 220)
It's hard to imagine that Donatas Motiejunas falls this far, but there just aren't a lot of teams looking for a skillset, though I could see the Suns, Wizards, Pacers, 76ers, or Jazz taking him. The Timberwolves have the best foreign scouts in the NBA and are looking to get more skilled in their frontcourt. Motiejunas certainly is skilled, probably the most skilled big in this draft, and is a tremendous, high upside value at this point in the draft.

21. Portland Trailblazers: JaJuan Johnson, PF Purdue Sr. (6-10, 220)
No player helped himself more at the combine than JaJuan Johnson, he measured very well and showed he's the most explosive big man in the draft. Much is made of Johnson's lack of bulk, but he's got functional strength, benching 185 pounds 15 times and there have been other lean big men to have success in the NBA. Johnson's inside-out game, length, athleticism, and production are all NBA worthy. Given their injury issues, Portland's frontcourt could use a talented backup.

22. Denver Nuggets: Marshon Brooks, SG Providence Sr. (6-5, 195)
Landry Fields, Marcus Thorton, Reggie Williams, these three NBA players who were undrafted or second round picks averaged 20 points plus per game in college. Finally, teams are starting to wise up that if you can score in college and you have an NBA game, you can score in the pros. Marshon Brooks is really rising up boards and could even sneak into the back of the lottery after averaging 24.6 ppg in the toughest conference in basketball and showing his well rounded offensive game in workouts.

23. Houston Rockets (from Orlando): Reggie Jackson, PG Boston College Jr. (6-3, 205)
Kyle Lowry had a breakout season last year, but so did Aaron Brooks two years ago before burned out in Houston and got traded at the last trade deadline. Goran Dragic is a free agent and is too unpredictable to be relied on. Reggie Jackson still has some learning to do as far as being a point guard, but with a 7-0 wingspan at 6-3 and great athleticism, Jackson can be a lockdown defender from day one with the potential to be Jrue Holiday type starting point in a year or two. A great investment and value late in the first round.

24. Oklahoma City Thunder: Tyler Honeycutt, G/F UCLA Jr. (6-8, 187)
The Thunder are at their best when playing unselfishly on offense and hustling on defense, they also have a need for a back up to Kevin Durant, Tyler Honeycutt isn't going to wow you with his scoring ability, but he does all the little things well, has a high basketball IQ and led the Pac-10 in blocked shots from the small forward position at over two a game. He won't need to log huge minutes behind Durant, but he'll always help the team when he's on the floor.

25. Boston Celtics: Nikola Vucevic, PF/C USC Jr. (7-0, 260)
The Celtics defensive system requires a big body in the middle who can rebound and clog the lane, Kendrick Perkins was that guy for a while, the they tried Shaq after Perkins was traded but he never got healthy enough to contribute. Nikola measured great at the combine, with a 7-4.5 wingspan and 9-4.5 reach, he's got legit center size and can be that guy in the middle for them.

26. Dallas Mavericks: Tobias Harris, F Tennessee Fr. (6-8, 223)
Tobias Harris is another player who won't ever blow you away and make highlight reel plays, but he'll make a whole team play better with unselfish play and hard work. Harris can play both the 3 and 4 while scoring inside and out and even be a little bit of a point forward. He reminds me of a smaller, rawer Lamar Odom, which is a pretty good value at 26.

27. New Jersey Nets (from L.A. Lakers): Iman Shumpert, G Georgia Tech Jr. (6-6, 222)
Iman Shumpert was the official winner of the NBA combine, measuring great and testing off the charts with a 42 inch vertical and putting up the second most bench reps with 18. On the court, Shumpert is an aggressive, slashing combo guard who struggled in Georgia Tech's awful offense (as many prospects have) while being one of the best perimeter defenders in the country.

28. Chicago Bulls (from Miami): Justin Harper, PF Richmond Jr. (6-9, 228)
It was clear in the playoffs that the Bulls need to find a way to get more scoring and space the floor with a stretch 4 and a shooting guard who can actually shoot and create his own shot. Justin Harper is a great value here as a 6-9, Rashard Lewis-type forward who shot 45% from 3 in college last season. Harper has his warts, he prefers to play on the perimeter and isn't a great rebounder but as a role player to stretch the floor, he has a lot of value.

29. San Antonio Spurs: Nikola Mirotic, SF Serbia (6-10, 226)
If it wasn't for a big buyout, Nikola Mirotic would be a lottery pick. That suits the ever patient San Antonio who don't mind waiting for years for prospects to come to the NBA (Tiago Splitter) and love taking players with the future in mind (Ryan Richards). Mirotic is a very skilled forward with a tremendous shooting stroke and better than you'd expect defensive ability.

30. Chicago Bulls: Charles Jenkins, G Hofstra Sr. (6-3, 216)
It's clear that the Bulls need to find a shooter/scorer at the 2 guard position to space the floor for Derrick Rose and help take some of the pressure off of him scoring-wise. Charles Jenkins is a lot like former Bulls guard Ben Gordon in that he's undersized but strong and can score off the bounce or from deep. Jenkins also has some point guard ability.

Sunday, May 8, 2011

It's true that the 2011 draft is short on elite, potential star prospects, however there's considerable depth in the late first round and even in the second. The superstars take center stage in the playoffs, but it's often the role players that are crucial to winning in the post-season. Taj Gibson has come off the bench and picked up the slack of ailing Carlos Boozer, J.J. Barea used his quickness to dice up the Lakers defense, Tony Allen has taken the task of shutting down the opponents best perimeter player, and James Jones has provided the floor spacing to give the LeBron and Wade driving lanes. None of these players were picked before the 25th pick in the first round. Other such valuable role players can be found late in this draft as well.

Taj Gibson, Bulls (2009, 1st round, 26th overall)
Carlos Boozer has struggled to get going in these playoffs, due to a foot injury and some a lack of confidence. Coming off the bench, Taj Gibson has come off the bench when Boozer has struggled and provided energy to help lift the Bulls second unit. When Gibson comes in the game, he usually blocks a shot or two, tries to dunk a offensive rebound, hits a mid-range jumper, and drops in a shot hook shot. Shot blocking, athleticism, a consistent jumpshot, and some simple post moves are all features of Purdue Senior JaJuan Johnson's game. Johnson is a long, athletic forward with 7-2 wingspan who's blocked 263 shots in his career at Purdue. He also has range out to the college 3 point line and should be able to knock down 18-20 foot jumpers consistently. The concern with Johnson is that while he's a legit 6-10, he only weighs 220-225 pounds, but when Gibson came out of USC he was only 214 pounds. Johnson should go off the board sometime in the early second round and should be player minutes as a backup power forward right away.

J.J. Barea, Mavericks (2001, undrafted)
One of the keys to the Mavericks shocking sweep of the Lakers was J.J. Berea's ability to penetrate and run pick-and-roll. Barea is generously listed at six feet tall (he's probably more like 5-10) but his quickness and tight handle allow him to slip past players to the rim. One of the problems Barea has is finishing at the rim because he's not explosive and lacks great bulk. Washington's Isaiah Thomas is just as short as Barea at 5-9 and has the same quickness and ball handling skills, but has a bigger frame and is an explosive athlete. Barea isn't a great three point shooter, so he usually has to play with the ball in his hands. While Thomas has the floor vision to play the point, he also has the outside shot to play off the ball if need be. As a rich man Barea with great leadership skills and work ethic, Thomas is a lock for the second round with a chance at the late first.

Tony Allen, Grizzles (2004, 1st round, 25th overall)
Despite a wildly inconsistent mixed-bag of production on offense, Tony Allen brings First Team All-Defense every night on the floor. Great athletic ability combined with instincts and tenacity allow Allen to shut down guards and wings game in and game out despite being undersized at 6-4. Allen has decent ball handling skills and can play the point if absolutely necessary but is a bad deep shooter and can be turnover prone. UCLA's Malcolm Lee played point guard for his first two years at UCLA with mixed results but was clearly better suited to play the 2 despite an inconsistent jumpshot. Lee can slash, finish at the rim and find teammates but like Allen, his bread and butter is his defense. Lee is the best perimeter defender in this draft and should find a role as a defensive stopper in the NBA with the upside of a 2 guard with point guard skills. Lee should be drafted late-first/early second.

James Jones, Heat (2003, 2nd round, 50th overall)
Along with Joel Anthony, James Jones is the most important non-Big 3 player on the Heat (you might argue they're more important than Bosh Spice) because of the roles they play. Jones' 3 point shooting ability (43% this season) has provided the spacing to open driving lanes to the basket for LeBron and Wade. Jones isn't the defender he used to be, but he's still a passable defender. Ohio State's David Lighty also shot a 43% from 3 this season and has improved every season from deep. He's also a high effort defender with a high basketball IQ and should be able to have that role player mindset from day 1. Lighty has a chance to get drafted in the second round but could easily go undrafted, I still expect him to make an NBA roster and even get some minutes as a floor spacing backup 2 guard.