Kenneth Faried vs. Louisville's frontcourt
Kenneth Faried is the best rebounder in the country and it's not really close, he's averaging 14.5 per game, including a ridicules 5.7 on the offensive end. He's produced against top competition before this year (including 20 and 18 against Florida and 15/12 against Ohio State) but another good performance against a big frontline like Louisville and NBA Caliber athletes like Terrence Jennings would help him boost his stock from mid first to late lottery.
Khris Middleton vs. Chris Singleton
Khris Middleton is probably a year away from being a very relevant NBA prospect, but a big performance against Chris Singleton, who's the best defender in the league, would really put him on scout's radars. Middleton has an NBA game with, shooting, slashing, and passing abilities in a prototypical wing players frame (6-7, 215). Singleton is huge for a wing player (6-9, 220) with really long arms, great athleticism and quickness. This should be a tremendous matchup of future NBA players pitting one strength against another.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Round of 64 matchups to watch (West)
Scotty Hobson vs. Tim Hardaway Jr.
This is sort of a Now vs. Later matchup, with Hobson a likely late first/early second round pick if he declares while Hardaway Jr. at least one, if not two years away from being a top NBA prospect. Hobson is a known commodity while Hardaway Jr. is a player on the rise. Both guys are versatile scorers with NBA three point range and quickness to drive it to the basket along with the athleticism to finish above the rim. Hardaway is still learning to play the game at this level, but he's got pedigree and potential, a good showing against Hobson and Tennessee could help him on his way to Scouts radars.
Keith Benson vs. Tristan Thompson
The matchup between Keith Benson and Tristan Thompson mirrors the matchup between their teams, Oakland and Texas. Thompson is the established prospect, likely to go in the late lottery, while Benson is a fringe guy looking to show he can compete with the big boys. Benson's problem isn't on offense, or even rebounding. In games against West Virginia, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan, Tennessee, Ohio State (all on the road) he averaged 15.9 ppg and 11.2 rebounds but Texas' defense and length, which is highlighted by Thompson, provides a very difficult matchup for Benson. However, the big problem Benson has is he struggles to play post defense (don't be deceived by the shot blocking numbers, he's not a great defender) and matching up with Thompson and holding his own will go a long way to improve his stock, because we know he can score and rebound against elite competition.
This is sort of a Now vs. Later matchup, with Hobson a likely late first/early second round pick if he declares while Hardaway Jr. at least one, if not two years away from being a top NBA prospect. Hobson is a known commodity while Hardaway Jr. is a player on the rise. Both guys are versatile scorers with NBA three point range and quickness to drive it to the basket along with the athleticism to finish above the rim. Hardaway is still learning to play the game at this level, but he's got pedigree and potential, a good showing against Hobson and Tennessee could help him on his way to Scouts radars.
Keith Benson vs. Tristan Thompson
The matchup between Keith Benson and Tristan Thompson mirrors the matchup between their teams, Oakland and Texas. Thompson is the established prospect, likely to go in the late lottery, while Benson is a fringe guy looking to show he can compete with the big boys. Benson's problem isn't on offense, or even rebounding. In games against West Virginia, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan, Tennessee, Ohio State (all on the road) he averaged 15.9 ppg and 11.2 rebounds but Texas' defense and length, which is highlighted by Thompson, provides a very difficult matchup for Benson. However, the big problem Benson has is he struggles to play post defense (don't be deceived by the shot blocking numbers, he's not a great defender) and matching up with Thompson and holding his own will go a long way to improve his stock, because we know he can score and rebound against elite competition.
Round of 64 matchups to watch (East)
Tu Holloway vs. Marquette's defense
Tu Holloway of Xavier is undersized (6-0, 180) but has tremendous penetrating ability and NBA range on his jumpshot. However, Holloway isn't just a 2 guard in a small point guards body, he's unselfish and has the floor vision to play point guard at least part of the time at the next level. Marquette has a number of tough, long, defenders to throw at Holloway like Junior Cadougan (6-1), Darius Johnson-Odom (6-2), Vander Blue (6-4) and even Jimmy Butler (6-7) in an attempt to slow him down. It will be a good test to see if Holloway, a second round prospect right now, can still be effective. If he has a big game, he could see his stock on the rise.
Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Isaiah Thomas vs. Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie
One of the most interesting first round matchups is Georgia and Washington. They're a contrast in styles, Washington is 3rd in country in scoring (83.5 ppg) while Georiga is 173rd (68.8), on the other hand Georgia ranks 19th in the country in field goal percentage defense while Washington is 86th. The matchup between Washington's Isaiah Thomas and Matthew Bryan-Amaning with Georgia's Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie. Leslie (6-4, 205) and Thompkins (6-9, 245) have the size and strength advantage over Thomas (5-8, 185) and Bryan-Amaning (6-9, 235) but Thomas is quicker than Leslie and Bryan-Amaning is more athletic than Thompkins. Thompkins can struggle against long, athletic players who he'll face on a nightly basis in the NBA, so Bryan-Amaning will be a good test while Thomas will look to show he can compete with the big, athletic players he'll have to go against in the NBA. Another thing to watch for is if Washington is able to pick up the pace the way they like, whether or not Thompkins, who's struggled with conditioning, can keep up.
Tu Holloway of Xavier is undersized (6-0, 180) but has tremendous penetrating ability and NBA range on his jumpshot. However, Holloway isn't just a 2 guard in a small point guards body, he's unselfish and has the floor vision to play point guard at least part of the time at the next level. Marquette has a number of tough, long, defenders to throw at Holloway like Junior Cadougan (6-1), Darius Johnson-Odom (6-2), Vander Blue (6-4) and even Jimmy Butler (6-7) in an attempt to slow him down. It will be a good test to see if Holloway, a second round prospect right now, can still be effective. If he has a big game, he could see his stock on the rise.
Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Isaiah Thomas vs. Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie
One of the most interesting first round matchups is Georgia and Washington. They're a contrast in styles, Washington is 3rd in country in scoring (83.5 ppg) while Georiga is 173rd (68.8), on the other hand Georgia ranks 19th in the country in field goal percentage defense while Washington is 86th. The matchup between Washington's Isaiah Thomas and Matthew Bryan-Amaning with Georgia's Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie. Leslie (6-4, 205) and Thompkins (6-9, 245) have the size and strength advantage over Thomas (5-8, 185) and Bryan-Amaning (6-9, 235) but Thomas is quicker than Leslie and Bryan-Amaning is more athletic than Thompkins. Thompkins can struggle against long, athletic players who he'll face on a nightly basis in the NBA, so Bryan-Amaning will be a good test while Thomas will look to show he can compete with the big, athletic players he'll have to go against in the NBA. Another thing to watch for is if Washington is able to pick up the pace the way they like, whether or not Thompkins, who's struggled with conditioning, can keep up.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Five seniors that should be drafted
This week is Senior week for almost all college teams. Here's five Seniors that should be drafted and can contribute to an NBA team.
JaJuan Johnson, PF Purdue (6-10, 225)
The knock on JaJuan Johnson is that he lacks the ideal bulk for an NBA frontman, yet when Taj Gibson was drafted out of USC he weighed only 214 pounds, yet in his rookie season he contributed as defender and rebounder as well as picking his spots on the offensive end. Like Gibson, Johnson is long and athletic with a smooth midrange jumpshot and the kind of college post game that will allow him to score against most second unit power forwards. He's also got a great motor, can rebound, block shots, and run the floor, pretty much exactly what you look for in a backup power forward.
Justin Holiday, G/F Washington (6-6, 180)
For Justin Holiday, it's all about the little things. With long arms, quick feet and great athletic ability he's got the potential to be a lockdown defensive player but he's also got a very good basketball IQ, rebounds well, and is a very good passer. Holiday did all those things his first three years, but in his senior year he's developed a three point shot (40% on 4.1 3's per game), which is crucial to his draft stock. If he can be that high IQ, defender/shooter, he'll have a great chance of contributing in the NBA.
Chandler Parsons, SF Florida (6-9, 220)
Chandler Parson has never been a big time scorer, though he can slash and shoot, instead he's settled into a role as the jack-of-all-trades glue guy. With a very high basketball IQ, a nice handle and passing ability he's played point forward for Florida the last two years and has a versatile offensive skillset to match. Parsons is also is a pretty good athlete, though he lacks the lateral quickness to be an elite defender. Parsons won't ever be a star, or even likely a starter, but his diverse skillset will fit nicely in as second unit forward.
Norris Cole, PG Cleveland State (6-2, 175)
Norris Cole doesn't do anything great, but he does everything well and fits the profile of the backup point guard perfectly. Cleveland State doesn't play the best competition, but he's been dominant at his level, averaging 21.6 ppg, 6 rpg, and 5.5 apg (including a 40 point, 20 rebound, 9 assist game) and has led his team to 25 wins and a tie for the lead in the Horizon league. He can shoot, slash, pass, rebound, defend, and will give any team that takes him quality playing winning basketball.
Justin Harper, PF Richmond (6-10, 225)
In the NBA, the ability to stretch the defense in diverse ways from different positions opens up whole new worlds of offense. One of the most effective ways that teams can stretch defenses is will big men that can shoot, and Justin Harper can really singe the net (49% from 3 this season), he's also a good athlete that is a real weapon running the floor in transition. He needs to rebound and defend better, but his shooting is enough of a weapon for him to find playing time in the NBA.
JaJuan Johnson, PF Purdue (6-10, 225)
The knock on JaJuan Johnson is that he lacks the ideal bulk for an NBA frontman, yet when Taj Gibson was drafted out of USC he weighed only 214 pounds, yet in his rookie season he contributed as defender and rebounder as well as picking his spots on the offensive end. Like Gibson, Johnson is long and athletic with a smooth midrange jumpshot and the kind of college post game that will allow him to score against most second unit power forwards. He's also got a great motor, can rebound, block shots, and run the floor, pretty much exactly what you look for in a backup power forward.
Justin Holiday, G/F Washington (6-6, 180)
For Justin Holiday, it's all about the little things. With long arms, quick feet and great athletic ability he's got the potential to be a lockdown defensive player but he's also got a very good basketball IQ, rebounds well, and is a very good passer. Holiday did all those things his first three years, but in his senior year he's developed a three point shot (40% on 4.1 3's per game), which is crucial to his draft stock. If he can be that high IQ, defender/shooter, he'll have a great chance of contributing in the NBA.
Chandler Parsons, SF Florida (6-9, 220)
Chandler Parson has never been a big time scorer, though he can slash and shoot, instead he's settled into a role as the jack-of-all-trades glue guy. With a very high basketball IQ, a nice handle and passing ability he's played point forward for Florida the last two years and has a versatile offensive skillset to match. Parsons is also is a pretty good athlete, though he lacks the lateral quickness to be an elite defender. Parsons won't ever be a star, or even likely a starter, but his diverse skillset will fit nicely in as second unit forward.
Norris Cole, PG Cleveland State (6-2, 175)
Norris Cole doesn't do anything great, but he does everything well and fits the profile of the backup point guard perfectly. Cleveland State doesn't play the best competition, but he's been dominant at his level, averaging 21.6 ppg, 6 rpg, and 5.5 apg (including a 40 point, 20 rebound, 9 assist game) and has led his team to 25 wins and a tie for the lead in the Horizon league. He can shoot, slash, pass, rebound, defend, and will give any team that takes him quality playing winning basketball.
Justin Harper, PF Richmond (6-10, 225)
In the NBA, the ability to stretch the defense in diverse ways from different positions opens up whole new worlds of offense. One of the most effective ways that teams can stretch defenses is will big men that can shoot, and Justin Harper can really singe the net (49% from 3 this season), he's also a good athlete that is a real weapon running the floor in transition. He needs to rebound and defend better, but his shooting is enough of a weapon for him to find playing time in the NBA.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
All-Underrated Team
Point Guard: Demetri McCamey, Illinois Sr. (6-3, 200)
A lot of the hate for Demetri McCamey comes from the fact that he plays at Illinois, he's a big, strong point guard with broad shoulder, but he's not Deron Williams. There's a lot more than just body type and school that compare between these two. Both struggled with weight at time during their college career, have a deep three point shot, and have pure point guards skill but can also score some. The difference between the two is huge and it's why Williams was a top 5 pick and McCamey might not be a first round pick: athleticism. When Williams got his weight under control, he had new found explosiveness. Not only jumping, but speed and start-stop ability (his full speed crossover is insane) but when McCamey lost weight, he was just an average athlete. So he's not Deron Williams, but he's got a lot to like. He's a pure point guard with very good floor vision and an excellent jump shot (he's hitting 48% of his 3s). If a team wants a solid backup/borderline starter who can run a team and hit open shots, he's worth a pick.
Highlights
Will Go: Early 2nd
Should Go: Mid-to-late 1st
Shooting Guard: Klay Thompson, Washington State Jr. (6-6, 200)
Everyone is calling Jimmer Fredette the next Stephen Curry, but I've got a different candidate: Klay Thompson. Like Curry, Thompson lacks elite quickness or athleticism, but makes up for it in a multitude of other ways. He's probably the best shooter in the nation with unlimited range. Also, like Curry he can handle the ball and create for teammates, averaging 4.3 assists per game, which is more than Fredette (who plays more minutes on a better team), and has tremendous basketball IQ (he's the son of former NBA-er Mychak Thompson). He also rebounds (5.1 rpg) and contributes defensively (2 spg, 1 bpg). True, Thompson lacks the athleticism to be an elite defender, but he's got enough quickness to stay in front of people and with a little added strength combined with his IQ, he could be an average to above-average defender at the next level. The bottom line is that he's a smart, character guy who will do the little things to help his team win, but also have to potential to be 15 ppg scorer.
Highlights
Will Go: Late 1st/Early 2nd
Should Go: Middle 1st
Small Forward: Kris Joseph, Syracuse Jr. (6-7, 210)
Unlike the guys before him on this list Kris Joseph doesn't lack athleticism. He's an explosive leaper and can really fly down the court. The issue with him is he's still developing his game, despite being a Junior, he's clearly a late-bloomer. Each year he's gotten better, increasing his scoring average, his decision making (way fewer travels and charges) and, most impressively, his 3 point shooting (from 22% to 38% ). I also like the way his game translates to the NBA, in college the lane is constantly clogged and players can be more physical on the perimeter but at the next level Joseph will be able to use his impressive handling ability and quickness to slash to the basket, while keeping teams honest with his jumper. He's already a foul magnet in college (he's shot 124 free throws this season) and with the spaced NBA floors he'll have more room to finish at the rim. He may never be a starter in the NBA, but with his high motor and offensive ability, he'll be a valuable player of the bench for a long time.
Highlights
Will Go: 2nd
Should Go: Late 1st
Power Forward: Kenneth Faried, Morehead State Sr. (6-8, 225)
Probably the most underrated player in this whole draft, I'd take Faried in the late lottary without a second thought. He leads the country in rebounding and excels at using length, athleticism, and a never ending motor to gather rebounds at an incredible rate, especially on the offensive end (the next closest offensive rebounder has 40 less than Faried). Think it's just the weak competition of the Ohio Valley? Against several future lottery picks from Florida and Ohio State (most notably top 5 pick Jared Sullinger) he averaged 17.5 points and 15 boards while shooting 63% from the floor and blocking 2 shots. Defensively, he's so athletic and long, it makes up for his lack of height and if he hits the weight room in combination with his tremendous mobility and quickness, he has the potential to be an ace defender who could guard positions 1 through 4. He scores a lot of his points off these offensive rebounds, but the offense is coming along. Will he ever be a polished scorer at the next level? Probably not, but the awesome rebounding and defensive potential, to go along with a great motor and work ethic will give you a player who'll help you win games plane and simple. He reminds me of a more athletic Anderson Varejao, that's worth a late lottery pick, right?
Highlights
Will Go: Mid 1st
Should Go: Late Lottery
Center: Lucas Nogueria, Brazil (7-0, 225)
Looking at Chad Ford's top center rankings, by number 5 you get Alex Oriakhi. No offense to Oriakhi, but if that doesn't tell you that there's a dearth of talent at center in college basketball, you haven't seen Oriakhi try to hit a jump shot. Luckily, the International talent pool is there, at least for one team in the middle of the first round. Enter Lucas Nogueria, a legit 7 footer from Brazil with tremendous athleticism and a great motor. At 18, he's still raw on offense, but defensively he's a menace; all over the court blocking shots, rebounding, and defending in a very Joakim Noah-esque way. Noah was about the same size coming out of college at 22, so if Nogueria can add 10-15 pounds by the time he turns 20, he'll be way ahead of Noah, who is one of the best defensive centers in the NBA despite being on about 230 pounds. Offensively, it all has to do with how you develop him, but the tools are there. Even if he doesn't develop much of a game, you've still got a potential ace defensive player and rebounder.
Highlights
Will Go: Late 1st
Should Go: Mid 1st
Sixth Man: Nolan Smith, Duke Sr. (6-4, 185)
Scouts have this irrational fear of combo guards that I don't understand, if a guy can play he can play. And Nolan Smith can play. He's not a pure point, but I could see him running the point in certain systems and he doesn't have prototypical height for a 2 guard, but he's an excellent defender who'll be able to hold his own against most 2s. So what's the problem? I don't really know. He's can hit an open 3 (though he could stand to get a little more consistent there), drive and finish, create for teammates (5.6 apg) and crash the glass (4.8 rpg). Plus he's got a nice first step and the athleticism and strength to finish. The bottom line is Smith is a character guy with a great IQ and a winners attitude, will he ever be a starter? Probably not, but you could do a lot worse at backup guard then this guy.
Highlights
Will Go: 2nd round
Should Go: Late 1st
A lot of the hate for Demetri McCamey comes from the fact that he plays at Illinois, he's a big, strong point guard with broad shoulder, but he's not Deron Williams. There's a lot more than just body type and school that compare between these two. Both struggled with weight at time during their college career, have a deep three point shot, and have pure point guards skill but can also score some. The difference between the two is huge and it's why Williams was a top 5 pick and McCamey might not be a first round pick: athleticism. When Williams got his weight under control, he had new found explosiveness. Not only jumping, but speed and start-stop ability (his full speed crossover is insane) but when McCamey lost weight, he was just an average athlete. So he's not Deron Williams, but he's got a lot to like. He's a pure point guard with very good floor vision and an excellent jump shot (he's hitting 48% of his 3s). If a team wants a solid backup/borderline starter who can run a team and hit open shots, he's worth a pick.
Highlights
Will Go: Early 2nd
Should Go: Mid-to-late 1st
Shooting Guard: Klay Thompson, Washington State Jr. (6-6, 200)
Everyone is calling Jimmer Fredette the next Stephen Curry, but I've got a different candidate: Klay Thompson. Like Curry, Thompson lacks elite quickness or athleticism, but makes up for it in a multitude of other ways. He's probably the best shooter in the nation with unlimited range. Also, like Curry he can handle the ball and create for teammates, averaging 4.3 assists per game, which is more than Fredette (who plays more minutes on a better team), and has tremendous basketball IQ (he's the son of former NBA-er Mychak Thompson). He also rebounds (5.1 rpg) and contributes defensively (2 spg, 1 bpg). True, Thompson lacks the athleticism to be an elite defender, but he's got enough quickness to stay in front of people and with a little added strength combined with his IQ, he could be an average to above-average defender at the next level. The bottom line is that he's a smart, character guy who will do the little things to help his team win, but also have to potential to be 15 ppg scorer.
Highlights
Will Go: Late 1st/Early 2nd
Should Go: Middle 1st
Small Forward: Kris Joseph, Syracuse Jr. (6-7, 210)
Unlike the guys before him on this list Kris Joseph doesn't lack athleticism. He's an explosive leaper and can really fly down the court. The issue with him is he's still developing his game, despite being a Junior, he's clearly a late-bloomer. Each year he's gotten better, increasing his scoring average, his decision making (way fewer travels and charges) and, most impressively, his 3 point shooting (from 22% to 38% ). I also like the way his game translates to the NBA, in college the lane is constantly clogged and players can be more physical on the perimeter but at the next level Joseph will be able to use his impressive handling ability and quickness to slash to the basket, while keeping teams honest with his jumper. He's already a foul magnet in college (he's shot 124 free throws this season) and with the spaced NBA floors he'll have more room to finish at the rim. He may never be a starter in the NBA, but with his high motor and offensive ability, he'll be a valuable player of the bench for a long time.
Highlights
Will Go: 2nd
Should Go: Late 1st
Power Forward: Kenneth Faried, Morehead State Sr. (6-8, 225)
Probably the most underrated player in this whole draft, I'd take Faried in the late lottary without a second thought. He leads the country in rebounding and excels at using length, athleticism, and a never ending motor to gather rebounds at an incredible rate, especially on the offensive end (the next closest offensive rebounder has 40 less than Faried). Think it's just the weak competition of the Ohio Valley? Against several future lottery picks from Florida and Ohio State (most notably top 5 pick Jared Sullinger) he averaged 17.5 points and 15 boards while shooting 63% from the floor and blocking 2 shots. Defensively, he's so athletic and long, it makes up for his lack of height and if he hits the weight room in combination with his tremendous mobility and quickness, he has the potential to be an ace defender who could guard positions 1 through 4. He scores a lot of his points off these offensive rebounds, but the offense is coming along. Will he ever be a polished scorer at the next level? Probably not, but the awesome rebounding and defensive potential, to go along with a great motor and work ethic will give you a player who'll help you win games plane and simple. He reminds me of a more athletic Anderson Varejao, that's worth a late lottery pick, right?
Highlights
Will Go: Mid 1st
Should Go: Late Lottery
Center: Lucas Nogueria, Brazil (7-0, 225)
Looking at Chad Ford's top center rankings, by number 5 you get Alex Oriakhi. No offense to Oriakhi, but if that doesn't tell you that there's a dearth of talent at center in college basketball, you haven't seen Oriakhi try to hit a jump shot. Luckily, the International talent pool is there, at least for one team in the middle of the first round. Enter Lucas Nogueria, a legit 7 footer from Brazil with tremendous athleticism and a great motor. At 18, he's still raw on offense, but defensively he's a menace; all over the court blocking shots, rebounding, and defending in a very Joakim Noah-esque way. Noah was about the same size coming out of college at 22, so if Nogueria can add 10-15 pounds by the time he turns 20, he'll be way ahead of Noah, who is one of the best defensive centers in the NBA despite being on about 230 pounds. Offensively, it all has to do with how you develop him, but the tools are there. Even if he doesn't develop much of a game, you've still got a potential ace defensive player and rebounder.
Highlights
Will Go: Late 1st
Should Go: Mid 1st
Sixth Man: Nolan Smith, Duke Sr. (6-4, 185)
Scouts have this irrational fear of combo guards that I don't understand, if a guy can play he can play. And Nolan Smith can play. He's not a pure point, but I could see him running the point in certain systems and he doesn't have prototypical height for a 2 guard, but he's an excellent defender who'll be able to hold his own against most 2s. So what's the problem? I don't really know. He's can hit an open 3 (though he could stand to get a little more consistent there), drive and finish, create for teammates (5.6 apg) and crash the glass (4.8 rpg). Plus he's got a nice first step and the athleticism and strength to finish. The bottom line is Smith is a character guy with a great IQ and a winners attitude, will he ever be a starter? Probably not, but you could do a lot worse at backup guard then this guy.
Highlights
Will Go: 2nd round
Should Go: Late 1st
Monday, February 7, 2011
2011 NBA Mock Draft: 2/13
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Perry Jones III, PF Baylor Fr. (6-11, 220)
Perry Jones has been solid all season, growing more attuned to the college game and showing all his skills, but some scouts have been troubled by the fact that he's deferring too much (something I don't have a problem with, deferring to more experienced upperclassmen is called basketball IQ) but when his team really needed him on the road in a must win game against Texas A&M he had the best game of his young career, going for 27 points (9-16 FGs, 9-9 FTs) while constantly drawing double teams. The Cavaliers have had a historically bad season, but a guy with the potential of Jones could turn things around and give them the star the lost after "The Decision".
2. Minnesota Timberwolves: Harrison Barnes, SF North Carolina Fr. (6-7, 215)
It's hard to believe that I've got Harrison Barnes this high after his start to the season, but if the turnaround he's started in the last couple games keeps on to the end of the season, scouts are going to quickly fall back in love with him. He's got the skills no doubt, but it's the motor that's the problem with him. There aren't really any good fits here for the Wolves, they have a contract logjam at point guard and the floor-bound centers don't fit well with Kevin Love, so a swingman to replace the presumably departing Corey Brewer is the best they can do.
3. Washington Wizards: Jared Sullinger, PF Ohio State Fr. (6-9, 260)
I love this fit for the Wizards, they lack any kind of effort or fundamentals down low, while being the fourth worst rebounding team in the NBA. Jared Sullinger can gobble up rebounds and provide the basketball IQ and thumping down low that's the complete opposite of Andray Blatche. Sullinger also fits really well with the mobile, shot blocking JaVale McGee.
4. Sacramento Kings: Kyrie Irving, PG Duke Fr. (6-2, 180)
This is the dream situation for the Kings, who would love a point guard like Kyrie Irving to pair with Tyreke Evans. Evans is the best when the ball is in his hand, so shooting is a necessity(45% from 3). But when Evans is off the court or facing a difficult matchup, the Kings struggle to score, so Irvings scoring (17.4 ppg) and playmaking ability (5.1 apg) will relieve that.
5. Toronto Raptors: Enes Kanter, C Kentucky Fr. (6-10, 255)
Enes Kanter would be in contention for the top pick if he hadn't been suspended for the season because he got benefits from his Turkish team. Andrei Barngani is much better suited to power forward and has serious rebounding issues. Kanter is a true center (though undersized) who's probably the second be rebounder in the draft. He's not an explosive athlete or shot blocker, but he's not a terrible defensive player, just average. The offense however, is anything but average. He can grind under the basket or step out and shoot all the way to 3, as well as handle the basketball.
6. New Jersey Nets: Terrence Jones, SF Kentucky Fr. (6-8, 225)
The small forward spot has been a total disaster for the Nets this season, with Travis Outlaw and Stephen Graham getting most of the minutes. Terrence Jones has and NBA ready game and an NBA ready body. He can score off the dribble, post up, or shoot the three as well as handle and pass like a guard and rebound like a forward. His game will only get better with the NBA rules and style.
7. Detroit Pistons: Jonas Valanciunas, PF Lithuania (6-11, 230)
Jonas Valanciunas has been tearing up the Euroleague lately and has clearly established himself as the top international prospect in this draft. At only 18 years old, Valanciunas combines prototypical power forwards frame with a physical demeanor in the paint and a soft touch around the basket. He merely needs to continue to add strength and work on his perimeter skills because he's got everything else: IQ, motor, wingspan, athleticism. He'll give the Pistons a bright frontcourt future when paired with Greg Monroe.
8. Los Angeles Clippers: Jordan Hamilton, SF Texas So. (6-7, 215)
How Jordan Hamilton isn't a favorite for player of the year is beyond me. At least he's finally getting his due as an draft prospect. He's a classic 3 man, with all around offensive ability: whether it's long distance shooting (41% from 3), slashing, or posting up, you won't find a better offensive player in the country. He's also a gritty player (7.7 rpg) who's shown the ability to be a lockdown defender and as well as make plays for others (2.4 apg). He's as polished a 20 year old as you'll see and will be able to help a team from day one in the NBA, with considerable upside as well. Al-Farouq Aminu has been solid season, but his future is at the 4. Hamilton would give the Clippers a young talent at all 5 positions.
9. Milwaukee Bucks: Derrick Williams, SF Arizona So. (6-8, 210)
Is Derrick Williams a 3 or a 4? Is he too small to play inside? Does he lack the perimeter skills to play on the outside? The real question is, who cares? The guy can ball and is having a ridicules season, check these stats: 19.5 points and 8.1 rebounds per game on 63% shooting from the field and 69% from 3.
10. Charlotte Bobcats: John Henson, PF North Carolina So. (6-10, 210)
The Bobcats could potentially lose 4 of their top 5 center and power forwards to free agency this summer, so they'll probably be looking for a front court player with their first round pick. Michael Jordan will love John Henson because they're both Carolina guys, plus Henson's length and athleticism fit the Bobcats defense first style. There are questions about his ability to add strength and finish after contact, but an emerging offensive game paired with tremendous physical upside is too much to pass on.
11. Golden State Warriors: Kawhi Leonard, SF San Diego State So. (6-7, 225)
Dorell Wright has been great this season, but he's only done it for half a season so far and is backup is Vlad Radmanovic. Not only will Kawhi Leonard challenge Wright for a starting role, but his toughness and rebounding will one of the worst defensive and rebounding teams in the league. Plus his athletic ability will play great in the Warriors up-and-down style.
12. Houston Rockets: Josh Selby, PG Kansas Fr. (6-3, 190)
Aaron Brooks will most likely either be traded before the deadline or not be resigned when he becomes a free agent and Kyle Lowry will be the starter next season. Lowry is a great defender and has great court vision, but he's small and not a scorer. Josh Selby will make a nice backup because he's big, also defends well, and can score at will when he gets in a grove. He also has the shooting ability to be a two guard in certain situations ala Monta Ellis.
13. Phoenix Suns: Donatas Motiejunas, PF Lithuania (7-0, 220)
Donatas Motiejunas forgoed being a top ten pick last season, but he hasn't hurt his stock too much. Phoenix needs to start planning for a time without Steve Nash, which means they'll need to get some players who can score on their own. Motiejunas has three point range, can handle the ball on the perimeter, and score in the post. He needs to add some muscle, but he's got NBA level athleticism.
14. Memphis Grizzlies: Jan Vesely, PF Czech Republic (6-11, 240)
Zach Randolph will be a free agent next season and is unlikely to be resigned, that will leave the Darrell Arthur to play the 4 for the Grizzlies. Memphis seems to like Arthur best as a energy guy off the bench, so they'll be looking for a starter who'll compliment center Marc Gasol well. Gasol is a low-post, back to the basket guy, so slotting someone like Vesely who's best as a high post, face up player would be a great fit. Vesely does his damage with his sweet jump shot that, given his height, he can get off over anyone. He's also handles the ball well and is an good finisher.
15. Indiana Pacers: Kenneth Faried, PF Morehead State Sr. (6-8, 215)
Jeff Foster, Solomon Jones, and Josh McRoberts will all be unrestricted free agency at the end of this season, and that will leave Tyler Hansbrough as the Pacers only power forward option. Despite improving their rebounding from last year, the Pacers still aren't physical on the boards (and are in the lower third in the league in offensive rebounding) and that will only get worse when one or all of those free agents leave. Kenneth Faried is the best rebounder in the country and will provide an immediate boost to the rebounding and defense of any team that takes him.
16. Philadelphia 76ers: Brandon Knight, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-4, 185)
The Sixers don't have a huge amount of needs, but they're in the lower half of the league in three point shooting, and lack a real strong shooter off the bench. Brandon Knight can provide that, while making a nice fit with either Lou Williams or Evan Turner in the back court because both guys can handle the ball or shoot, making them a tough match up.
17. New York Knicks: Kemba Walker, PG UCONN Jr. (6-1, 170)
It's hard to tell what exactly the Knicks team needs will be because if they make a big trade like everyone expects, the team will look completely different. So I'll play it safe and give them a luxury pick. Kemba Walker has really hit the skids in Big East play, which isn't surprising because Big East teams aren't going to let one player beat them. If Walker can learn to be more efficient and score effectively without taking 18 shots a game like he is now, he'll be a dangerous weapon. If not, he'll have trouble convincing teams it's worth have a player who shoots 41% from the field and doesn't really effect the game in other ways.
18. Portland Trail Blazers: Thomas Robinson, PF Kansas So. (6-9, 230)
It's weird to think that Thomas Robinson would go ahead of Marcus Morris, but it's likely that will be the case. Robinson has an NBA body and athleticism, and a solid skill set that includes a nice mid-range shot, an emerging back to the basket game, and nice hands. The one question about him is that he hasn't gotten a ton of playing time behind the Morris twins, only averaging 15 minutes a game, though he's been very productive when he's on the floor with 8.9 ppg and 6.4 rpg on 63% shooting
19. Utah Jazz: Mason Plumblee, PF Duke So. (6-10, 230)
The Utah Jazz have had the same problem for years, they lack a big, athletic frontcourt player who can rebound, defend and block shots. Mason Plumblee can do all that. He's very athletic and has a great motor. Offensively, he got a nice mid-range jumpshot, but that's about it. However, in Utah's offense he'll get good looks while he works on the rest of his overall game.
20. Denver Nuggets: Marcus Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-8, 225)
Kenyon Martin and Sheldon Williams are both unrestricted free agents at the end of this season, so the Nuggets will be looking for a power forward in the draft or free agency. Marcus Morris isn't an off the charts athlete, nor does he have prototypical height. But he's very skilled, can shoot from 3, handle the ball, and score on the block. He's also a good rebounder and defender. Morris will probably never be a star in the NBA, but he can be a solid starter that can help a team in many ways.
21. New Orleans Hornets: Trey Thompkins, PF Georgia Jr. (6-9, 245)
David West is a free agent this summer and all signs point to him leaving. If that's the case, they'll have a big hole to fill at power forward. Trey Thompkins can shoot all the way out to three point range, and can also bang in the paint. He also rebounds well and can block shots. Nothing spectacular, just solid all around, sort of like David West.
22. Phoenix Suns (from Orlando Magic): Jimmer Fredette, PG BYU Sr. (6-2, 195)
I know that everyone is in love with Jimmer Fredette now, but I'm a little more skeptical. Maybe he's a lottery pick, maybe not. But let me put it this way, if Josh Selby or Brandon Knight played 4 years at BYU, how many points would they average? I think it'd be more than Fredette. He's still a solid player, but the Stephen Curry comparisons are a little ridicules. He would be a good fit on the Suns, though, who are likely to lose Steve Nash in the next season or two. Goran Dragic will be the starter, but Fredette will make a nice backup who can play beside him at times due to his shooting ability.
23. Atlanta Hawks: Chris Singleton, SF Florida State Jr. (6-9, 220)
Marvin Williams still isn't anything but an average starter in the NBA, so the Hawks should be looking at least for someone to give him some competition. Chris Singleton is one of the best defenders in the nation and has 3 point range.
24. Oklahoma City Thunder: Patric Young, C Florida Fr. (6-9, 235)
Rebounding and post defense have been a huge problem for the Thunder this year. Patric Young, though undersized, has the ability to play the 4 or the 5 with an elite NBA body, strength, and athleticism. He's also an a natural rebounder and shot blocker.
25. Chicago Bulls: Klay Thompson, SG Washington State Jr. (6-6, 195)
The Bulls don't just need a shooter at the 2 guard spot, they need a scorer to take some pressure off Derrick Rose. Klay Thompson is the most underrated player in the country. He's got a sweet stroke from the outside, can drive the ball, create for teammates, and rebound from the 2 guard position.
26. Los Angeles Lakers: Alec Burks, SG Colorado So. (6-6, 190)
The Lakers don't have a lot of needs, but another wing scorer who can help Kobe Bryant out scoring on the outside and give him a rest. Alec Burks is an explosive scorer with tremendous athletic ability and is in constant attack mode.
27. Dallas Mavericks: Tristan Thompson, PF Texas Fr. (6-8, 235)
If Tristan Thompson were two inches taller, he'd be a lottery pick. As he is now, he could go anywhere from the mid first down. He's got really long arms, explosive leaping ability, can hit a jump shot, and is a great shot blocker and rebounder,
28. Toronto Raptors (from Miami Heat): Demetri McCamey, PG Illinois Sr. (6-3, 200)
The Raptors add another name to the mix for point guard, where the play has been lackluster to say the least.
29. Boston Celtics: Lucas Nogueira, C Brazil (7-0, 220)
A project big man for the Celtics to store in Europe to bring over when the Celtics are rebuilding after the Big 3 move on.
30. San Antonio Spurs: Travis Leslie, SG Georgia Jr. (6-4, 205)
A Spurs type player who averages 7 rebounds as a 6-4 guard and is the best athlete in country.
Perry Jones has been solid all season, growing more attuned to the college game and showing all his skills, but some scouts have been troubled by the fact that he's deferring too much (something I don't have a problem with, deferring to more experienced upperclassmen is called basketball IQ) but when his team really needed him on the road in a must win game against Texas A&M he had the best game of his young career, going for 27 points (9-16 FGs, 9-9 FTs) while constantly drawing double teams. The Cavaliers have had a historically bad season, but a guy with the potential of Jones could turn things around and give them the star the lost after "The Decision".
2. Minnesota Timberwolves: Harrison Barnes, SF North Carolina Fr. (6-7, 215)
It's hard to believe that I've got Harrison Barnes this high after his start to the season, but if the turnaround he's started in the last couple games keeps on to the end of the season, scouts are going to quickly fall back in love with him. He's got the skills no doubt, but it's the motor that's the problem with him. There aren't really any good fits here for the Wolves, they have a contract logjam at point guard and the floor-bound centers don't fit well with Kevin Love, so a swingman to replace the presumably departing Corey Brewer is the best they can do.
3. Washington Wizards: Jared Sullinger, PF Ohio State Fr. (6-9, 260)
I love this fit for the Wizards, they lack any kind of effort or fundamentals down low, while being the fourth worst rebounding team in the NBA. Jared Sullinger can gobble up rebounds and provide the basketball IQ and thumping down low that's the complete opposite of Andray Blatche. Sullinger also fits really well with the mobile, shot blocking JaVale McGee.
4. Sacramento Kings: Kyrie Irving, PG Duke Fr. (6-2, 180)
This is the dream situation for the Kings, who would love a point guard like Kyrie Irving to pair with Tyreke Evans. Evans is the best when the ball is in his hand, so shooting is a necessity(45% from 3). But when Evans is off the court or facing a difficult matchup, the Kings struggle to score, so Irvings scoring (17.4 ppg) and playmaking ability (5.1 apg) will relieve that.
5. Toronto Raptors: Enes Kanter, C Kentucky Fr. (6-10, 255)
Enes Kanter would be in contention for the top pick if he hadn't been suspended for the season because he got benefits from his Turkish team. Andrei Barngani is much better suited to power forward and has serious rebounding issues. Kanter is a true center (though undersized) who's probably the second be rebounder in the draft. He's not an explosive athlete or shot blocker, but he's not a terrible defensive player, just average. The offense however, is anything but average. He can grind under the basket or step out and shoot all the way to 3, as well as handle the basketball.
6. New Jersey Nets: Terrence Jones, SF Kentucky Fr. (6-8, 225)
The small forward spot has been a total disaster for the Nets this season, with Travis Outlaw and Stephen Graham getting most of the minutes. Terrence Jones has and NBA ready game and an NBA ready body. He can score off the dribble, post up, or shoot the three as well as handle and pass like a guard and rebound like a forward. His game will only get better with the NBA rules and style.
7. Detroit Pistons: Jonas Valanciunas, PF Lithuania (6-11, 230)
Jonas Valanciunas has been tearing up the Euroleague lately and has clearly established himself as the top international prospect in this draft. At only 18 years old, Valanciunas combines prototypical power forwards frame with a physical demeanor in the paint and a soft touch around the basket. He merely needs to continue to add strength and work on his perimeter skills because he's got everything else: IQ, motor, wingspan, athleticism. He'll give the Pistons a bright frontcourt future when paired with Greg Monroe.
8. Los Angeles Clippers: Jordan Hamilton, SF Texas So. (6-7, 215)
How Jordan Hamilton isn't a favorite for player of the year is beyond me. At least he's finally getting his due as an draft prospect. He's a classic 3 man, with all around offensive ability: whether it's long distance shooting (41% from 3), slashing, or posting up, you won't find a better offensive player in the country. He's also a gritty player (7.7 rpg) who's shown the ability to be a lockdown defender and as well as make plays for others (2.4 apg). He's as polished a 20 year old as you'll see and will be able to help a team from day one in the NBA, with considerable upside as well. Al-Farouq Aminu has been solid season, but his future is at the 4. Hamilton would give the Clippers a young talent at all 5 positions.
9. Milwaukee Bucks: Derrick Williams, SF Arizona So. (6-8, 210)
Is Derrick Williams a 3 or a 4? Is he too small to play inside? Does he lack the perimeter skills to play on the outside? The real question is, who cares? The guy can ball and is having a ridicules season, check these stats: 19.5 points and 8.1 rebounds per game on 63% shooting from the field and 69% from 3.
10. Charlotte Bobcats: John Henson, PF North Carolina So. (6-10, 210)
The Bobcats could potentially lose 4 of their top 5 center and power forwards to free agency this summer, so they'll probably be looking for a front court player with their first round pick. Michael Jordan will love John Henson because they're both Carolina guys, plus Henson's length and athleticism fit the Bobcats defense first style. There are questions about his ability to add strength and finish after contact, but an emerging offensive game paired with tremendous physical upside is too much to pass on.
11. Golden State Warriors: Kawhi Leonard, SF San Diego State So. (6-7, 225)
Dorell Wright has been great this season, but he's only done it for half a season so far and is backup is Vlad Radmanovic. Not only will Kawhi Leonard challenge Wright for a starting role, but his toughness and rebounding will one of the worst defensive and rebounding teams in the league. Plus his athletic ability will play great in the Warriors up-and-down style.
12. Houston Rockets: Josh Selby, PG Kansas Fr. (6-3, 190)
Aaron Brooks will most likely either be traded before the deadline or not be resigned when he becomes a free agent and Kyle Lowry will be the starter next season. Lowry is a great defender and has great court vision, but he's small and not a scorer. Josh Selby will make a nice backup because he's big, also defends well, and can score at will when he gets in a grove. He also has the shooting ability to be a two guard in certain situations ala Monta Ellis.
13. Phoenix Suns: Donatas Motiejunas, PF Lithuania (7-0, 220)
Donatas Motiejunas forgoed being a top ten pick last season, but he hasn't hurt his stock too much. Phoenix needs to start planning for a time without Steve Nash, which means they'll need to get some players who can score on their own. Motiejunas has three point range, can handle the ball on the perimeter, and score in the post. He needs to add some muscle, but he's got NBA level athleticism.
14. Memphis Grizzlies: Jan Vesely, PF Czech Republic (6-11, 240)
Zach Randolph will be a free agent next season and is unlikely to be resigned, that will leave the Darrell Arthur to play the 4 for the Grizzlies. Memphis seems to like Arthur best as a energy guy off the bench, so they'll be looking for a starter who'll compliment center Marc Gasol well. Gasol is a low-post, back to the basket guy, so slotting someone like Vesely who's best as a high post, face up player would be a great fit. Vesely does his damage with his sweet jump shot that, given his height, he can get off over anyone. He's also handles the ball well and is an good finisher.
15. Indiana Pacers: Kenneth Faried, PF Morehead State Sr. (6-8, 215)
Jeff Foster, Solomon Jones, and Josh McRoberts will all be unrestricted free agency at the end of this season, and that will leave Tyler Hansbrough as the Pacers only power forward option. Despite improving their rebounding from last year, the Pacers still aren't physical on the boards (and are in the lower third in the league in offensive rebounding) and that will only get worse when one or all of those free agents leave. Kenneth Faried is the best rebounder in the country and will provide an immediate boost to the rebounding and defense of any team that takes him.
16. Philadelphia 76ers: Brandon Knight, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-4, 185)
The Sixers don't have a huge amount of needs, but they're in the lower half of the league in three point shooting, and lack a real strong shooter off the bench. Brandon Knight can provide that, while making a nice fit with either Lou Williams or Evan Turner in the back court because both guys can handle the ball or shoot, making them a tough match up.
17. New York Knicks: Kemba Walker, PG UCONN Jr. (6-1, 170)
It's hard to tell what exactly the Knicks team needs will be because if they make a big trade like everyone expects, the team will look completely different. So I'll play it safe and give them a luxury pick. Kemba Walker has really hit the skids in Big East play, which isn't surprising because Big East teams aren't going to let one player beat them. If Walker can learn to be more efficient and score effectively without taking 18 shots a game like he is now, he'll be a dangerous weapon. If not, he'll have trouble convincing teams it's worth have a player who shoots 41% from the field and doesn't really effect the game in other ways.
18. Portland Trail Blazers: Thomas Robinson, PF Kansas So. (6-9, 230)
It's weird to think that Thomas Robinson would go ahead of Marcus Morris, but it's likely that will be the case. Robinson has an NBA body and athleticism, and a solid skill set that includes a nice mid-range shot, an emerging back to the basket game, and nice hands. The one question about him is that he hasn't gotten a ton of playing time behind the Morris twins, only averaging 15 minutes a game, though he's been very productive when he's on the floor with 8.9 ppg and 6.4 rpg on 63% shooting
19. Utah Jazz: Mason Plumblee, PF Duke So. (6-10, 230)
The Utah Jazz have had the same problem for years, they lack a big, athletic frontcourt player who can rebound, defend and block shots. Mason Plumblee can do all that. He's very athletic and has a great motor. Offensively, he got a nice mid-range jumpshot, but that's about it. However, in Utah's offense he'll get good looks while he works on the rest of his overall game.
20. Denver Nuggets: Marcus Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-8, 225)
Kenyon Martin and Sheldon Williams are both unrestricted free agents at the end of this season, so the Nuggets will be looking for a power forward in the draft or free agency. Marcus Morris isn't an off the charts athlete, nor does he have prototypical height. But he's very skilled, can shoot from 3, handle the ball, and score on the block. He's also a good rebounder and defender. Morris will probably never be a star in the NBA, but he can be a solid starter that can help a team in many ways.
21. New Orleans Hornets: Trey Thompkins, PF Georgia Jr. (6-9, 245)
David West is a free agent this summer and all signs point to him leaving. If that's the case, they'll have a big hole to fill at power forward. Trey Thompkins can shoot all the way out to three point range, and can also bang in the paint. He also rebounds well and can block shots. Nothing spectacular, just solid all around, sort of like David West.
22. Phoenix Suns (from Orlando Magic): Jimmer Fredette, PG BYU Sr. (6-2, 195)
I know that everyone is in love with Jimmer Fredette now, but I'm a little more skeptical. Maybe he's a lottery pick, maybe not. But let me put it this way, if Josh Selby or Brandon Knight played 4 years at BYU, how many points would they average? I think it'd be more than Fredette. He's still a solid player, but the Stephen Curry comparisons are a little ridicules. He would be a good fit on the Suns, though, who are likely to lose Steve Nash in the next season or two. Goran Dragic will be the starter, but Fredette will make a nice backup who can play beside him at times due to his shooting ability.
23. Atlanta Hawks: Chris Singleton, SF Florida State Jr. (6-9, 220)
Marvin Williams still isn't anything but an average starter in the NBA, so the Hawks should be looking at least for someone to give him some competition. Chris Singleton is one of the best defenders in the nation and has 3 point range.
24. Oklahoma City Thunder: Patric Young, C Florida Fr. (6-9, 235)
Rebounding and post defense have been a huge problem for the Thunder this year. Patric Young, though undersized, has the ability to play the 4 or the 5 with an elite NBA body, strength, and athleticism. He's also an a natural rebounder and shot blocker.
25. Chicago Bulls: Klay Thompson, SG Washington State Jr. (6-6, 195)
The Bulls don't just need a shooter at the 2 guard spot, they need a scorer to take some pressure off Derrick Rose. Klay Thompson is the most underrated player in the country. He's got a sweet stroke from the outside, can drive the ball, create for teammates, and rebound from the 2 guard position.
26. Los Angeles Lakers: Alec Burks, SG Colorado So. (6-6, 190)
The Lakers don't have a lot of needs, but another wing scorer who can help Kobe Bryant out scoring on the outside and give him a rest. Alec Burks is an explosive scorer with tremendous athletic ability and is in constant attack mode.
27. Dallas Mavericks: Tristan Thompson, PF Texas Fr. (6-8, 235)
If Tristan Thompson were two inches taller, he'd be a lottery pick. As he is now, he could go anywhere from the mid first down. He's got really long arms, explosive leaping ability, can hit a jump shot, and is a great shot blocker and rebounder,
28. Toronto Raptors (from Miami Heat): Demetri McCamey, PG Illinois Sr. (6-3, 200)
The Raptors add another name to the mix for point guard, where the play has been lackluster to say the least.
29. Boston Celtics: Lucas Nogueira, C Brazil (7-0, 220)
A project big man for the Celtics to store in Europe to bring over when the Celtics are rebuilding after the Big 3 move on.
30. San Antonio Spurs: Travis Leslie, SG Georgia Jr. (6-4, 205)
A Spurs type player who averages 7 rebounds as a 6-4 guard and is the best athlete in country.
Friday, January 14, 2011
NBA Mock Lottery: 1/17
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Perry Jones III, PF Baylor Fr. (6-11, 230)
Poor Cavs. They lose LeBron James and now are the whipping boy of the NBA with the best shot at the number one pick. At the beginning of the year, that wouldn't seem like such a bad thing because sure-fire number 1 pick and star in the making Harrison Barnes would be there to take and turn their franchise around. Except Barnes has been average at best and not nearly what scouts thought he would be, so now the Cavs have their choice of the top 5 or so prospects. Perry Jones, with his tremendous athleticism, length and ability to essentially play all five positions has the highest upside of the bunch.
2. Sacramento Kings: Kyrie Irving, PG Duke Fr. (6-2, 180)
If Kyrie Irving hadn't gotten injured this year, he'd probably have been the favorite to be the number 1 overall pick. He's still in contention now, and it's fairly likely he'll be a top 5 pick at worst. As a freshman on a loaded, defending National Champs Duke team, he was clearly the best player on the floor night in and night out. A pure point guard with excellent quickness who can score, distribute, defend, and run the offense. Offensively, he can shoot or score off the drive while he's got the potential to be a lockdown defender, though he'll potentially be vulnerable to post ups from bigger guards at the next level.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves: Terrence Jones, SF Kentucky Fr. (6-8, 225)
I've loved Terrence Jones since he was in high school, he's one of those rare players who have elite skills, tremendous physical ability, and a drive to dominate. For the skills part of it, he's a guy who can score inside and out, handle like a guard, pass, rebound and defend. Athletically, he's explosive and strong, with an NBA ready body coming out of high school with a massive wingspan. He's also been very productive and is clearly the leader of the best team in the SEC with 18.6 ppg and 9 rpg,
4. New Jersey Nets: Harrison Barnes, SF North Carolina Fr. (6-7, 210)
The North Carolina hype machine strikes again! Much like "top 3 lock" John Henson last year, Harrison Barnes (a preseason first team All-American. which is an absolute joke) has had a disappointing season to say the least. Two months after he was considered the consensus number 1 overall pick, ESPN's Fran Fraschilla said he doesn't think Barnes could help an NBA team as a rookie. He just can't create shots for himself and is far too passive, showing no emotion. So far all he's really shown is he is a good spot up shooter. Still, his upside will get him into the top ten at worst. He's got a lot of talent and is only18. There's plenty of time for him to put it together.
5. Washington Wizards: Enes Kanter, PF/C Kentucky Fr. (6-10, 255)
Enes Canter is my favorite prospect in this draft. I firmly believe that if he hadn't been ruled ineligible by the NCAA (how on earth Cam Newton is eligible and Kanter isn't is a joke) because he was paid by his Turkish amateur team, Kanter would have been the number 1 pick. He's just that dominant and skilled. He's got great hands, strength, and is a willing bruiser in the paint plus he can score in the post or from the three point line and is a tremendous rebounder. Jared Sullinger is the most dominant big man in the nation, so take a look at what Kanter did against him (as well as another top 10 recruit in Patric Young) at the Nike Hoops Summit: 34 points and 13 boards. He reminds me a lot of Kevin Love.
6. Detroit Pistons: Jared Sullinger, PF/C Ohio State Fr. (6-9, 260)
While Jared Sullinger isn't an ideal fit next to Greg Monroe in the Pistons' front court (two guy who combined to block 1.9 shots per game in 63.8 minutes won't exactly be a defensive juggernaut) the Pistons are so desperate for frontcourt talent, they'll work with it. And that's not to say Jared Sullinger isn't an excellent prospect, because he is. He's the most dominant big man in the nation and is just a monster in the paint. He's a little undersized and isn't an explosive athlete, but he's so strong in his lower and upper body that he can get great condition and use his myriad of moves in the post to score, or root out space to grab rebounds, something he does very well. The messy, lane clogging college game doesn't give Sullinger a great chance to show his skills in the paint, but in the NBA he'll have a much better chance to succeed. That said, Sullinger's still been awesome, posting 17.6 ppg and 9.9 rebounds on an absolutely loaded Ohio State team.
7. Los Angeles Clippers: Jonas Valanciunas, PF Lithuania (6-10, 230)
Don't be surprised if things shake out differently, say someone goes back to school unexpectedly, there's a regression or injury and Jonas Valanciunas ends up a top 3 pick. At18 years of age, Valanciunas is already a skilled big man who makes a living near the basket and loves to bang and bruise. He's an excellent rebounder with great hands and soft touch. Valanciunas isn't and elite athlete, but he's explosive enough to get by in the NBA. Combine that with his length make him a solid shot blocker. Players his age with tenacity, skills, and IQ are rare
8. Toronto Raptors: Kemba Walker, PG UCONN Jr. (6-1, 170)
The breakout star of this 10-11 college basketball season so far has clearly been Kemba Walker. He's second in the country in scoring at 25.6 ppg (and the only major conference player in the top 5) and has an otherwise talent-vapid Connecticut team ranked in the top 10. But how much does the talents of undersized, score first point guard translate to the NBA? Pretty well I think. While in no way to I think he's nearly the prospect Derrick Rose was, their college games do have some similarities. Both are lightning quick and can get in the lane with ease, but also have to body control and explosiveness to finish at the rim. Rose is a much taller and stronger, which puts him in a class above Walker. As far as Walker being score first, last year he averaged 14.6 ppg, over ten points less than this year because that was an upperclassman-laden team that needed Walker the distributer (he averaged 5.1 apg) more than Walker the scorer.
9. Philadelphia 76ers: John Henson, PF North Carolina So. (6-10, 210)
Last years over hyped North Carolina prospect John Henson has been very impressive to me this year. I'm really high on him in this draft because he has an abundance of two of the three things you want from a prospect: physical gifts and motor. The third thing you want is skills, and that's still coming for Henson (and I do believe it will come). Though he's a good scorer close to the basket, his perimeter game and shooting is still coming. However, like I said Henson is elitely gifted physically with tremendous length and super explosive leaping ability, as well as great lateral quickness, giving him the potential to be an ace defender in the NBA. However, the one thing that Henson must work on is his strength: at 6-10 he weighs at be 210 and he's not a Kevin Durant-type perimeter player, he's a true power forward in skill set.
10. Charlotte Bobcats: Josh Selby, PG Kansas Fr. (6-3, 190)
Josh Selby is an interesting prospect because he has elite physical ability, but isn't a pure point guard and is undersized to play the two guard position. So is a score first point guard worth a top ten pick? Absolutely. He reminds me a lot of Monta Ellis, not just because of the athletic ability, but also because he's always in attack mode, slashing to the basket. Unlike Ellis however, he's always committed to the defensive end and is an excellent defender. He has his warts, most mid-lottery players do, but you can't argue with getting a player with his scoring ability and potential, which could make him a Russell Westbrook-type who develops his point guard skills slowly, to the point that he can run a 50 win playoff team.
11. Golden State Warriors: Derrick Williams, SF Arizona So. (6-8, 220)
This is the perfect year for Derrick Williams to come out because of Landry Fields. Fields wasn't an ideal prospect by NBA standards, but he put up big numbers and carried his team. Williams has done both things for his team this year. He's putting up big numbers and helping a below average team play above average. The problem most scouts have with Williams is he's a tweener, too small to play power forward but without the perimeter skills to play the 3. I think Williams can play small forward and be a similar player to Al-Farouq Aminu, though Williams is a better 3-point shooter by far.
12. Phoenix Suns: Jan Vesely, PF Czech Republic (6-11, 240)
Jan Vesely has the potential to be a top 5 pick when we finally get around to the draft, but I'm being conservative with him for now, though he's a lock for the lottery, and probably the top 10. Vesely is a great athlete and can bang in the paint but also has an elite perimeter game for a 4 man, projecting him as a stretch 4 with the potential to round out his game and be a complete, Dirk Nowizki-lite player at the next level.
13. Memphis Grizzles: Brandon Knight, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-4, 190)
I think Brandon Knight would be best served going back to Kentucky for at least one more season to work on his point guard skills, but if he does come out, I think he still goes in the lottery. He'll never be a pure point guard, but as a role player on a good team or as a back up combo guard who can provide some scoring punch off the bench, I think he provides a great value. He's an excellent scorer with consistent NBA range (41% from 3), explosive driving and finishing ability and also decent passing ability. I'm a Knight fan because his scoring ability, motor and defensive ability is more than you could ask for in the late-lottery.
14. Houston Rockets: Donatas Motiejunas, PF Lithuania (7-0, 230)
Donatas Motiejunas surprised everyone by not entering the draft last year and it's not a lock he enters it this year, or ever. If he does, he's a lottery lock and a good chance for the top ten. Again, I'm being conservative with Euro-prospects because it's hard to know what to expect teams to thing of them right now. Motiejunas is very skilled and fairly athletic and he needs to add strength but his skill set (shooting, handling, passing, IQ) at his size (legit 7 feet) is phenomenal.
Poor Cavs. They lose LeBron James and now are the whipping boy of the NBA with the best shot at the number one pick. At the beginning of the year, that wouldn't seem like such a bad thing because sure-fire number 1 pick and star in the making Harrison Barnes would be there to take and turn their franchise around. Except Barnes has been average at best and not nearly what scouts thought he would be, so now the Cavs have their choice of the top 5 or so prospects. Perry Jones, with his tremendous athleticism, length and ability to essentially play all five positions has the highest upside of the bunch.
2. Sacramento Kings: Kyrie Irving, PG Duke Fr. (6-2, 180)
If Kyrie Irving hadn't gotten injured this year, he'd probably have been the favorite to be the number 1 overall pick. He's still in contention now, and it's fairly likely he'll be a top 5 pick at worst. As a freshman on a loaded, defending National Champs Duke team, he was clearly the best player on the floor night in and night out. A pure point guard with excellent quickness who can score, distribute, defend, and run the offense. Offensively, he can shoot or score off the drive while he's got the potential to be a lockdown defender, though he'll potentially be vulnerable to post ups from bigger guards at the next level.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves: Terrence Jones, SF Kentucky Fr. (6-8, 225)
I've loved Terrence Jones since he was in high school, he's one of those rare players who have elite skills, tremendous physical ability, and a drive to dominate. For the skills part of it, he's a guy who can score inside and out, handle like a guard, pass, rebound and defend. Athletically, he's explosive and strong, with an NBA ready body coming out of high school with a massive wingspan. He's also been very productive and is clearly the leader of the best team in the SEC with 18.6 ppg and 9 rpg,
4. New Jersey Nets: Harrison Barnes, SF North Carolina Fr. (6-7, 210)
The North Carolina hype machine strikes again! Much like "top 3 lock" John Henson last year, Harrison Barnes (a preseason first team All-American. which is an absolute joke) has had a disappointing season to say the least. Two months after he was considered the consensus number 1 overall pick, ESPN's Fran Fraschilla said he doesn't think Barnes could help an NBA team as a rookie. He just can't create shots for himself and is far too passive, showing no emotion. So far all he's really shown is he is a good spot up shooter. Still, his upside will get him into the top ten at worst. He's got a lot of talent and is only18. There's plenty of time for him to put it together.
5. Washington Wizards: Enes Kanter, PF/C Kentucky Fr. (6-10, 255)
Enes Canter is my favorite prospect in this draft. I firmly believe that if he hadn't been ruled ineligible by the NCAA (how on earth Cam Newton is eligible and Kanter isn't is a joke) because he was paid by his Turkish amateur team, Kanter would have been the number 1 pick. He's just that dominant and skilled. He's got great hands, strength, and is a willing bruiser in the paint plus he can score in the post or from the three point line and is a tremendous rebounder. Jared Sullinger is the most dominant big man in the nation, so take a look at what Kanter did against him (as well as another top 10 recruit in Patric Young) at the Nike Hoops Summit: 34 points and 13 boards. He reminds me a lot of Kevin Love.
6. Detroit Pistons: Jared Sullinger, PF/C Ohio State Fr. (6-9, 260)
While Jared Sullinger isn't an ideal fit next to Greg Monroe in the Pistons' front court (two guy who combined to block 1.9 shots per game in 63.8 minutes won't exactly be a defensive juggernaut) the Pistons are so desperate for frontcourt talent, they'll work with it. And that's not to say Jared Sullinger isn't an excellent prospect, because he is. He's the most dominant big man in the nation and is just a monster in the paint. He's a little undersized and isn't an explosive athlete, but he's so strong in his lower and upper body that he can get great condition and use his myriad of moves in the post to score, or root out space to grab rebounds, something he does very well. The messy, lane clogging college game doesn't give Sullinger a great chance to show his skills in the paint, but in the NBA he'll have a much better chance to succeed. That said, Sullinger's still been awesome, posting 17.6 ppg and 9.9 rebounds on an absolutely loaded Ohio State team.
7. Los Angeles Clippers: Jonas Valanciunas, PF Lithuania (6-10, 230)
Don't be surprised if things shake out differently, say someone goes back to school unexpectedly, there's a regression or injury and Jonas Valanciunas ends up a top 3 pick. At18 years of age, Valanciunas is already a skilled big man who makes a living near the basket and loves to bang and bruise. He's an excellent rebounder with great hands and soft touch. Valanciunas isn't and elite athlete, but he's explosive enough to get by in the NBA. Combine that with his length make him a solid shot blocker. Players his age with tenacity, skills, and IQ are rare
8. Toronto Raptors: Kemba Walker, PG UCONN Jr. (6-1, 170)
The breakout star of this 10-11 college basketball season so far has clearly been Kemba Walker. He's second in the country in scoring at 25.6 ppg (and the only major conference player in the top 5) and has an otherwise talent-vapid Connecticut team ranked in the top 10. But how much does the talents of undersized, score first point guard translate to the NBA? Pretty well I think. While in no way to I think he's nearly the prospect Derrick Rose was, their college games do have some similarities. Both are lightning quick and can get in the lane with ease, but also have to body control and explosiveness to finish at the rim. Rose is a much taller and stronger, which puts him in a class above Walker. As far as Walker being score first, last year he averaged 14.6 ppg, over ten points less than this year because that was an upperclassman-laden team that needed Walker the distributer (he averaged 5.1 apg) more than Walker the scorer.
9. Philadelphia 76ers: John Henson, PF North Carolina So. (6-10, 210)
Last years over hyped North Carolina prospect John Henson has been very impressive to me this year. I'm really high on him in this draft because he has an abundance of two of the three things you want from a prospect: physical gifts and motor. The third thing you want is skills, and that's still coming for Henson (and I do believe it will come). Though he's a good scorer close to the basket, his perimeter game and shooting is still coming. However, like I said Henson is elitely gifted physically with tremendous length and super explosive leaping ability, as well as great lateral quickness, giving him the potential to be an ace defender in the NBA. However, the one thing that Henson must work on is his strength: at 6-10 he weighs at be 210 and he's not a Kevin Durant-type perimeter player, he's a true power forward in skill set.
10. Charlotte Bobcats: Josh Selby, PG Kansas Fr. (6-3, 190)
Josh Selby is an interesting prospect because he has elite physical ability, but isn't a pure point guard and is undersized to play the two guard position. So is a score first point guard worth a top ten pick? Absolutely. He reminds me a lot of Monta Ellis, not just because of the athletic ability, but also because he's always in attack mode, slashing to the basket. Unlike Ellis however, he's always committed to the defensive end and is an excellent defender. He has his warts, most mid-lottery players do, but you can't argue with getting a player with his scoring ability and potential, which could make him a Russell Westbrook-type who develops his point guard skills slowly, to the point that he can run a 50 win playoff team.
11. Golden State Warriors: Derrick Williams, SF Arizona So. (6-8, 220)
This is the perfect year for Derrick Williams to come out because of Landry Fields. Fields wasn't an ideal prospect by NBA standards, but he put up big numbers and carried his team. Williams has done both things for his team this year. He's putting up big numbers and helping a below average team play above average. The problem most scouts have with Williams is he's a tweener, too small to play power forward but without the perimeter skills to play the 3. I think Williams can play small forward and be a similar player to Al-Farouq Aminu, though Williams is a better 3-point shooter by far.
12. Phoenix Suns: Jan Vesely, PF Czech Republic (6-11, 240)
Jan Vesely has the potential to be a top 5 pick when we finally get around to the draft, but I'm being conservative with him for now, though he's a lock for the lottery, and probably the top 10. Vesely is a great athlete and can bang in the paint but also has an elite perimeter game for a 4 man, projecting him as a stretch 4 with the potential to round out his game and be a complete, Dirk Nowizki-lite player at the next level.
13. Memphis Grizzles: Brandon Knight, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-4, 190)
I think Brandon Knight would be best served going back to Kentucky for at least one more season to work on his point guard skills, but if he does come out, I think he still goes in the lottery. He'll never be a pure point guard, but as a role player on a good team or as a back up combo guard who can provide some scoring punch off the bench, I think he provides a great value. He's an excellent scorer with consistent NBA range (41% from 3), explosive driving and finishing ability and also decent passing ability. I'm a Knight fan because his scoring ability, motor and defensive ability is more than you could ask for in the late-lottery.
14. Houston Rockets: Donatas Motiejunas, PF Lithuania (7-0, 230)
Donatas Motiejunas surprised everyone by not entering the draft last year and it's not a lock he enters it this year, or ever. If he does, he's a lottery lock and a good chance for the top ten. Again, I'm being conservative with Euro-prospects because it's hard to know what to expect teams to thing of them right now. Motiejunas is very skilled and fairly athletic and he needs to add strength but his skill set (shooting, handling, passing, IQ) at his size (legit 7 feet) is phenomenal.
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