Saturday, April 15, 2017

2017 NBA Offseason Preview: Phoenix Suns

Current Roster
PG: Eric Bledsoe/Tyler Ulis
SG: Devin Booker/Brandon Knight/Elijah Millsap
SF: T.J. Warren/Derrick Jones Jr.
PF: Marquese Chriss/Jared Dudley
C: Tyson Chandler/Dragan Bender

2017 Free Agents
Unrestricted
None

Restricted
C Alex Len
C Alan Williams
PG Ronnie Price

2017 Draft Picks
.199% at First Pick (2nd best odds)
2-23
2-55

Building Blocks 
For a 24-58 team, the Suns have a surprising amount of talented players. Devin Booker has had moments of offensive brilliance and averaged two more points per game (22.1) than his age (20) while TJ Warren bounced back from early season injury and played well.
Their rookies showed promise as well, Tyler Ulis proved he can hang at the NBA level as a backup point guard, 19-year old Marquese Chriss played in all 82 games and while still a far ways off, at least got valuable experience. Dragan Bender, also just 19, showed flashes as well, but struggled with injuries and didn't get much playing time, however there isn't any reason to thing he can't develop into a rotation player just yet. Even undrafted Derrick Jones Jr. gave some signs that he might be a player down the line.
In spite of his injury struggles (97 games played the last two seasons) Eric Bledsoe has been really, really good. However there is a real question as to whether or not Bledsoe, who will turn 28 in December, is really a part of the Suns future, and just how much they can get for him in a trade this summer if they decide to go in that direction.

Needs Going Forward
The Suns defense has not been good the past two seasons, finishing 26th and 28th in defensive efficiency. Aside from Bledsoe (who waxes and wanes) and Tyson Chandler, they don't have any good defenders on the roster. Ulis and Jones Jr. have potential on that end, but are rookies and bench players and while Jared Dudley is solid, he isn't exactly an impact defensive player. Booker is apocalypticaly bad defensively (93rd among SG in DRPM, 7th worst) as is Warren (77th among SF, 5th worst) and Chriss (94th among PF, absolute worst). Of those three, only Booker should really be a starter next season, so with Bledsoe, Chandler, and better defenders at the forward positions, improvement could come quickly.
Offensively, the Suns have obvious potential, as their most used lineup, the starters, have a 105.4 offensive rating, which would rank as 16th best in the NBA. And that is with a raw rookie in Chriss on the floor as well. Replace him with a more competent player and their offense could really take off, though of course defense would likely still be a problem with Warren and Booker on the floor, which is why two new starters seems like the best course of action, perhaps one free agent and one draft pick. The Suns aren't just a few pieces away from contending, but they could become competent with a couple moves.

Draft and Free Agency Targets
Assuming the Suns pick lands in the top 4, they'll likely have their choice between the top two forwards in the draft, Duke Jayson Tatum and Josh Jackson of Kansas. Tatum is the more advanced offensive player, while Jackson is ahead on defense. If they are indeed deciding between these two, the question will likely be whether or not they believe more in Tatum's defense or Jackson's offense.
In free agency, the Suns will likely not be shopping at the top of the market, but there are still some potential fits for what the need in the mid and lower tier of players. Rudy Gay would be an intriguing buy low option, as he is a better overall offensive and defensive player than he is given credit for and might not cost too much coming off of injury, though of course there is obvious risk. Other intersting buy low options including restricted free agent Nikola Mirotic or veterans like Patrick Patterson and Jonas Jerebko, all three of which are better defenders than you might think.

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