Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Sweet 16 Matchups to Watch (Southwest)

Justin Harper vs. Thomas Robinson, Marcus and Markieff Morris
Though he has the size of a power forward, Justin Harper is more comfortable on the perimeter and facing up ala Rashard Lewis. But his defense is going to be tested as he faces three strong post players in Thomas Robinson and the Morris twins. Harper needs to prove he can defend in the post and that he isn't just a small forward in a power forwards body. He'll still have a role in this league (any athletic 6-10 player who can shoot 45% from 3 does) but he'll go a lot higher if he can be at least an average defensive player at the 4.

Michael Snaer vs. Bradford Burgess
Neither of these players is on NBA radars, but both guys can score some and defend. Snaer is the better athlete while Burgess is a better shooter. They'll be looking to shut each other down and while it won't be a marquee matchup between NBA prospects, it'll be a fun battle to watch.

Sweet 16 Matchups to Watch (Southeast)

Shelvin Mack vs. Jordan Taylor
Last year, Shelvin Mack had a ton of NBA draft buzz, but he decided to stay in school and has fallen back under the radar. Jordan Taylor and Mack are similar players who have good from size, can shoot from deep, and are tenacious defenders at the point guard position. Mack is more likely to go pro than Taylor, but this should be a good, exciting battle of tough, talented big men.

Jimmer Fredette vs. Kenny Boynton and Irving Walker
Week 3 of Fredette defense watch. So far it hasn't happened yet and this week will be by far the biggest challenge for him. Boynton and Walker are Florida's top two scorers with lightning quickness and deep jumpshot range, Fredette will be matched up with both at different time. I've yet to see Fredette even exert effort on defense, but maybe as the stakes rise in the Sweet 16, that will change.

Sweet 16 Matchups to Watch (West)

Derrick Williams vs. Mason Plumblee
Mason Plumblee is the kind of big, athletic power forward that Derrick Williams will be playing against in the NBA and if he expects to play that position at the next level, he'll have to show he can score inside against bigger players as well as wear them out on the perimeter. Plumblee will have a size advantage on offense and should look to take advantage of it while playing Williams well on the perimeter will help cement his status as a defensive stalwart.

Kemba Walker vs. D.J. Gay
D.J. Gay is an underrated defender who has the unenviable task of slowing down Kemba Walker on offense while also trying to make him work on the defense. Walker has shown that he can hurt opponents as a distributor as well as scorer, but as the leader of his team in a big time game, you can expect him to take 20+ shots. Besides Malcolm Thomas, the Aztecs don't have an intimidating rim defender so their game plan may be force Walker into jumpshots instead of trying to challenge him to finish at the rim, in which case Gay will play off of Walker. Walker has improved his jumpshot this season but you're better off forcing him to shoot than you are risking him getting in the paint and drawing fouls.

Sweet 16 Matchups to Watch (East)

Harrison Barnes vs. Jimmy Butler and Jae Crowder
Marquette doesn't have any NBA prospects, but they've got a number of tough, long wing defensive aces like Butler and Crowder that will look to harass Harrison Barnes every second of every minute he's on the court. Don't be surprised if early in the game he gets laid out on a drive to the basket. Marquette wants to punch him in the face (figuratively) and how he responds will be huge. Barnes has been huge for North Carolina in pressure situations and with each game the Tar Heels advance into the Tournament, the overall pressure is rising. Barnes is the top scoring option on a team expected to win against the 11th seeded Golden Eagles and if he struggles and the Tar Heels lose, it will bring back to the surfaces some of the questions scouts had early in the season about Barnes motor and toughness.

Jared Sullinger vs. Josh Harrellson
I don't know if this matchup is going to have any kind of effect on the NBA draft, but it's certainly going to be fun to watch. One of the best parts about Jared Sullinger's game is that he never gives up on rebounds both offensively and defensively, well Josh Harrellson is the same way and will match his intensity and effort on every play. At 6-9, 260 Sullinger has the size to dominate most lighter college centers, however Harrellson (6-10, 275) won't be pushed around so easily. When the Buckeyes go small, most of the rebounding duties will fall on Sullinger, who'll have to contend with big time rebounders in Harrellson and Terrence Jones. Aaron Craft vs. Brandon Knight is another matchup to watch.

Friday, March 18, 2011

Round of 32 matchups to watch (West)

Kawhi Leonard vs. Lavoy Allen
Lavoy Allen is a deep fringe NBA prospect, while Kawhi Leonard is a lottery pick but when they're matched up, it should be a good battle. Allen is a good college scorer who can beat you in a couple ways and it will be up to Leonard to slow him down, while also winning that battle on offense and on the glass. Leonard has the obvious advantage in talent, and is coming off a great performance in round 1 (21 pts on 9-14 shooting and 1o rebounds) while Allen struggled, scoring only 3 points in 40 minutes. Allen will be looking to bounce back and it's rare that he'd put together two bad games in a row.

Tristan Thompson vs. Derrick Williams
This could be the best matchup of the whole Tournament. Both Tristan Thompson and Derrick Williams are projected lottery picks in the 2011 draft, neither guy has great size for a frontcourt player (they're both about 6-8) but they get by with their length, muscle, motor, and bounce. Williams will be more of a combo forward in the NBA, while Thompson is a pure 4. They'll be matched up in this game however. Williams is a top 5 pick, while Thompson is more late lottery, but they could move closer if Thompson has a dominant performance. Williams also may be matched up some with Jordan Hamilton, another lottery pick.

Round of 32 matchups to watch (Southwest)

Kenneth Faried vs Richmond's frontcourt
Kenneth Faried was as dominant of the boards as ever against Louisville (17 rebounds, 5 offensive) and attracted so much attention on the glass that other Morehead State players were able to get free for offensive rebounds. Richmond doesn't have the big, physical frontline that Louisville had, but they've got players like Justin Harper who can step out and shoot 3s, Dan Geriot who's a big body, and Darius Garrett who is an aggressive athlete. It will be interesting to see how well Faried does not only on the glass, but also playing defense and trying to get things going better on offense, as he was 4 for 17 in the first round.

JuJuan Johnson vs. VCU's frontcourt
VCU doesn't have a ton of elite frontcourt players (though Jamie Skeen is a very solid player), but they're feisty and play hard. That said, JuJuan Johnson has a significant talent advantage in this matchup. Johnson has had a great season and is a solid first round pick, but he hasn't always dominated like he should. Scouts would like to see him take over when he has a advantage. Whether it's getting open for jumpers or taking it down on the block, Johnson should look to be the top option of on his team.

Round of 32 matchups to watch (Southeast)

Patric Young vs. Joshua Smith
Patric Young has disappointed on the offensive end this season, (though not much was expected of him in that area yet) but his defense and rebounding has been awesome this season. He's a natural rebounder with great motor, aggressiveness, strength, length, and athleticism. Joshua Smith is a massive man (6-9, 300) and has about a 60 pound weight advantage over Young. It's going to be a matchup between Smith's size and Young's athleticism. If Young can shut down Smith it will go a long way to show scouts he can defend bigger players, while Smith will look to show he can play against long, athletic players.

Jimmer Fredette vs. Steven Gray, Demetri Goodson, and Marquise Carter
I'm still waiting for Jimmer Fredette to actually try to defend. He didn't do it against Wofford and he'll be going up against one of the deepest backcourts in the country. Against St. Johns they combined for 46 points, 16 rebounds and 15 assists. Fredette will be matched up against all of them at different points throughout the game and it would be nice to see him at least try on defense. I'm not sure why his clear lack of effort isn't a big red flag for people, but I guess they think that he carries such a big load on offense he doesn't have the energy to play defense, though Kemba Walker does it, so why can't Fredette?

Round of 32 matchups to watch (East)

Kevin Jones and John Flowers vs. Terrence Jones
All three of these players have similar games, they're small fowards who play in the paint but can also stretch defenses with their shooting. Kevin Jones and Flowers are fringe NBA prospects, but Terrence Jones is a top ten pick. Jones has spent a lot of time as a small ball 4, using his shooting and ball handling skills to beat slower paint players. However, the two West Virginia forwards have the quickness to guard him on the perimeter as well as the strength to bang with him down low. It's a matchup worth watching to see if Jones can still excel with a less favorable matchup. The matchup of Kentucky's freshman guards (Brandon Knight and Doron Lamb) vs. West Virginia's tough peremiter defenders (Joe Mazzulla and Daryl Bryant) should also be a good matchup.

Harrison Barnes vs. Justin Holiday
Harrison Barnes has had an up and down season but is starting to put together more consistent production. He tends to shy away from contact settles for jumpshots too often. He'll be tested against Justin Holiday, one of the best wing defenders in the country. Holiday will be physical with Barnes and try to force him into shooting jumpers. Barnes is a good jump shooter, but if he wants to lead his team, he'll have to put the ball on the deck to open up offense for his team. It'll be big for Barnes to show what he can do against an NBA level defender.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Round of 64 matchups to watch (Southeast)

Jimmer Fredette vs. Cameron Rundles and Jamar Diggs
We all know Jimmer Fredette can score like crazy, but one of the big concerns teams have about him is his lack of defensive chops. Two of Wofford's top three scorers are guards in Cameron Rundles and Jamar Diggs that Fredette will likely be matched up with both of them at points. Obviously, Rundles and Diggs aren't anywhere near the level of players Fredette will have to guard in the NBA, but he needs to show the effort at least, which hasn't always been there for him.

Elias Harris vs. Dwight Hardy
Elias Harris went from a potential first round pick last year to a boarderline draftable prospect in scout's eyes. A lot of weaknesses in his game were exposed and his number have been down around the board. A big game against a solid defensive team and a well respected player in Dwight Hardy could be a step in the right direction, which followed by a big Junior season could get Harris back into the first round mix in the 2011 draft.

Round of 64 matchups to watch (Southwest)

Kenneth Faried vs. Louisville's frontcourt
Kenneth Faried is the best rebounder in the country and it's not really close, he's averaging 14.5 per game, including a ridicules 5.7 on the offensive end. He's produced against top competition before this year (including 20 and 18 against Florida and 15/12 against Ohio State) but another good performance against a big frontline like Louisville and NBA Caliber athletes like Terrence Jennings would help him boost his stock from mid first to late lottery.


Khris Middleton vs. Chris Singleton
Khris Middleton is probably a year away from being a very relevant NBA prospect, but a big performance against Chris Singleton, who's the best defender in the league, would really put him on scout's radars. Middleton has an NBA game with, shooting, slashing, and passing abilities in a prototypical wing players frame (6-7, 215). Singleton is huge for a wing player (6-9, 220) with really long arms, great athleticism and quickness. This should be a tremendous matchup of future NBA players pitting one strength against another.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Round of 64 matchups to watch (West)

Scotty Hobson vs. Tim Hardaway Jr.
This is sort of a Now vs. Later matchup, with Hobson a likely late first/early second round pick if he declares while Hardaway Jr. at least one, if not two years away from being a top NBA prospect. Hobson is a known commodity while Hardaway Jr. is a player on the rise. Both guys are versatile scorers with NBA three point range and quickness to drive it to the basket along with the athleticism to finish above the rim. Hardaway is still learning to play the game at this level, but he's got pedigree and potential, a good showing against Hobson and Tennessee could help him on his way to Scouts radars.

Keith Benson vs. Tristan Thompson
The matchup between Keith Benson and Tristan Thompson mirrors the matchup between their teams, Oakland and Texas. Thompson is the established prospect, likely to go in the late lottery, while Benson is a fringe guy looking to show he can compete with the big boys. Benson's problem isn't on offense, or even rebounding. In games against West Virginia, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan, Tennessee, Ohio State (all on the road) he averaged 15.9 ppg and 11.2 rebounds but Texas' defense and length, which is highlighted by Thompson, provides a very difficult matchup for Benson. However, the big problem Benson has is he struggles to play post defense (don't be deceived by the shot blocking numbers, he's not a great defender) and matching up with Thompson and holding his own will go a long way to improve his stock, because we know he can score and rebound against elite competition.

Round of 64 matchups to watch (East)

Tu Holloway vs. Marquette's defense
Tu Holloway of Xavier is undersized (6-0, 180) but has tremendous penetrating ability and NBA range on his jumpshot. However, Holloway isn't just a 2 guard in a small point guards body, he's unselfish and has the floor vision to play point guard at least part of the time at the next level. Marquette has a number of tough, long, defenders to throw at Holloway like Junior Cadougan (6-1), Darius Johnson-Odom (6-2), Vander Blue (6-4) and even Jimmy Butler (6-7) in an attempt to slow him down. It will be a good test to see if Holloway, a second round prospect right now, can still be effective. If he has a big game, he could see his stock on the rise.

Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Isaiah Thomas vs. Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie
One of the most interesting first round matchups is Georgia and Washington. They're a contrast in styles, Washington is 3rd in country in scoring (83.5 ppg) while Georiga is 173rd (68.8), on the other hand Georgia ranks 19th in the country in field goal percentage defense while Washington is 86th. The matchup between Washington's Isaiah Thomas and Matthew Bryan-Amaning with Georgia's Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie. Leslie (6-4, 205) and Thompkins (6-9, 245) have the size and strength advantage over Thomas (5-8, 185) and Bryan-Amaning (6-9, 235) but Thomas is quicker than Leslie and Bryan-Amaning is more athletic than Thompkins. Thompkins can struggle against long, athletic players who he'll face on a nightly basis in the NBA, so Bryan-Amaning will be a good test while Thomas will look to show he can compete with the big, athletic players he'll have to go against in the NBA. Another thing to watch for is if Washington is able to pick up the pace the way they like, whether or not Thompkins, who's struggled with conditioning, can keep up.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Five seniors that should be drafted

This week is Senior week for almost all college teams. Here's five Seniors that should be drafted and can contribute to an NBA team.

JaJuan Johnson, PF Purdue (6-10, 225)
The knock on JaJuan Johnson is that he lacks the ideal bulk for an NBA frontman, yet when Taj Gibson was drafted out of USC he weighed only 214 pounds, yet in his rookie season he contributed as defender and rebounder as well as picking his spots on the offensive end. Like Gibson, Johnson is long and athletic with a smooth midrange jumpshot and the kind of college post game that will allow him to score against most second unit power forwards. He's also got a great motor, can rebound, block shots, and run the floor, pretty much exactly what you look for in a backup power forward.

Justin Holiday, G/F Washington (6-6, 180)
For Justin Holiday, it's all about the little things. With long arms, quick feet and great athletic ability he's got the potential to be a lockdown defensive player but he's also got a very good basketball IQ, rebounds well, and is a very good passer. Holiday did all those things his first three years, but in his senior year he's developed a three point shot (40% on 4.1 3's per game), which is crucial to his draft stock. If he can be that high IQ, defender/shooter, he'll have a great chance of contributing in the NBA.

Chandler Parsons, SF Florida (6-9, 220)
Chandler Parson has never been a big time scorer, though he can slash and shoot, instead he's settled into a role as the jack-of-all-trades glue guy. With a very high basketball IQ, a nice handle and passing ability he's played point forward for Florida the last two years and has a versatile offensive skillset to match. Parsons is also is a pretty good athlete, though he lacks the lateral quickness to be an elite defender. Parsons won't ever be a star, or even likely a starter, but his diverse skillset will fit nicely in as second unit forward.

Norris Cole, PG Cleveland State (6-2, 175)
Norris Cole doesn't do anything great, but he does everything well and fits the profile of the backup point guard perfectly. Cleveland State doesn't play the best competition, but he's been dominant at his level, averaging 21.6 ppg, 6 rpg, and 5.5 apg (including a 40 point, 20 rebound, 9 assist game) and has led his team to 25 wins and a tie for the lead in the Horizon league. He can shoot, slash, pass, rebound, defend, and will give any team that takes him quality playing winning basketball.

Justin Harper, PF Richmond (6-10, 225)
In the NBA, the ability to stretch the defense in diverse ways from different positions opens up whole new worlds of offense. One of the most effective ways that teams can stretch defenses is will big men that can shoot, and Justin Harper can really singe the net (49% from 3 this season), he's also a good athlete that is a real weapon running the floor in transition. He needs to rebound and defend better, but his shooting is enough of a weapon for him to find playing time in the NBA.