1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Perry Jones III, PF Baylor Fr. (6-11, 230)
Poor Cavs. They lose LeBron James and now are the whipping boy of the NBA with the best shot at the number one pick. At the beginning of the year, that wouldn't seem like such a bad thing because sure-fire number 1 pick and star in the making Harrison Barnes would be there to take and turn their franchise around. Except Barnes has been average at best and not nearly what scouts thought he would be, so now the Cavs have their choice of the top 5 or so prospects. Perry Jones, with his tremendous athleticism, length and ability to essentially play all five positions has the highest upside of the bunch.
2. Sacramento Kings: Kyrie Irving, PG Duke Fr. (6-2, 180)
If Kyrie Irving hadn't gotten injured this year, he'd probably have been the favorite to be the number 1 overall pick. He's still in contention now, and it's fairly likely he'll be a top 5 pick at worst. As a freshman on a loaded, defending National Champs Duke team, he was clearly the best player on the floor night in and night out. A pure point guard with excellent quickness who can score, distribute, defend, and run the offense. Offensively, he can shoot or score off the drive while he's got the potential to be a lockdown defender, though he'll potentially be vulnerable to post ups from bigger guards at the next level.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves: Terrence Jones, SF Kentucky Fr. (6-8, 225)
I've loved Terrence Jones since he was in high school, he's one of those rare players who have elite skills, tremendous physical ability, and a drive to dominate. For the skills part of it, he's a guy who can score inside and out, handle like a guard, pass, rebound and defend. Athletically, he's explosive and strong, with an NBA ready body coming out of high school with a massive wingspan. He's also been very productive and is clearly the leader of the best team in the SEC with 18.6 ppg and 9 rpg,
4. New Jersey Nets: Harrison Barnes, SF North Carolina Fr. (6-7, 210)
The North Carolina hype machine strikes again! Much like "top 3 lock" John Henson last year, Harrison Barnes (a preseason first team All-American. which is an absolute joke) has had a disappointing season to say the least. Two months after he was considered the consensus number 1 overall pick, ESPN's Fran Fraschilla said he doesn't think Barnes could help an NBA team as a rookie. He just can't create shots for himself and is far too passive, showing no emotion. So far all he's really shown is he is a good spot up shooter. Still, his upside will get him into the top ten at worst. He's got a lot of talent and is only18. There's plenty of time for him to put it together.
5. Washington Wizards: Enes Kanter, PF/C Kentucky Fr. (6-10, 255)
Enes Canter is my favorite prospect in this draft. I firmly believe that if he hadn't been ruled ineligible by the NCAA (how on earth Cam Newton is eligible and Kanter isn't is a joke) because he was paid by his Turkish amateur team, Kanter would have been the number 1 pick. He's just that dominant and skilled. He's got great hands, strength, and is a willing bruiser in the paint plus he can score in the post or from the three point line and is a tremendous rebounder. Jared Sullinger is the most dominant big man in the nation, so take a look at what Kanter did against him (as well as another top 10 recruit in Patric Young) at the Nike Hoops Summit: 34 points and 13 boards. He reminds me a lot of Kevin Love.
6. Detroit Pistons: Jared Sullinger, PF/C Ohio State Fr. (6-9, 260)
While Jared Sullinger isn't an ideal fit next to Greg Monroe in the Pistons' front court (two guy who combined to block 1.9 shots per game in 63.8 minutes won't exactly be a defensive juggernaut) the Pistons are so desperate for frontcourt talent, they'll work with it. And that's not to say Jared Sullinger isn't an excellent prospect, because he is. He's the most dominant big man in the nation and is just a monster in the paint. He's a little undersized and isn't an explosive athlete, but he's so strong in his lower and upper body that he can get great condition and use his myriad of moves in the post to score, or root out space to grab rebounds, something he does very well. The messy, lane clogging college game doesn't give Sullinger a great chance to show his skills in the paint, but in the NBA he'll have a much better chance to succeed. That said, Sullinger's still been awesome, posting 17.6 ppg and 9.9 rebounds on an absolutely loaded Ohio State team.
7. Los Angeles Clippers: Jonas Valanciunas, PF Lithuania (6-10, 230)
Don't be surprised if things shake out differently, say someone goes back to school unexpectedly, there's a regression or injury and Jonas Valanciunas ends up a top 3 pick. At18 years of age, Valanciunas is already a skilled big man who makes a living near the basket and loves to bang and bruise. He's an excellent rebounder with great hands and soft touch. Valanciunas isn't and elite athlete, but he's explosive enough to get by in the NBA. Combine that with his length make him a solid shot blocker. Players his age with tenacity, skills, and IQ are rare
8. Toronto Raptors: Kemba Walker, PG UCONN Jr. (6-1, 170)
The breakout star of this 10-11 college basketball season so far has clearly been Kemba Walker. He's second in the country in scoring at 25.6 ppg (and the only major conference player in the top 5) and has an otherwise talent-vapid Connecticut team ranked in the top 10. But how much does the talents of undersized, score first point guard translate to the NBA? Pretty well I think. While in no way to I think he's nearly the prospect Derrick Rose was, their college games do have some similarities. Both are lightning quick and can get in the lane with ease, but also have to body control and explosiveness to finish at the rim. Rose is a much taller and stronger, which puts him in a class above Walker. As far as Walker being score first, last year he averaged 14.6 ppg, over ten points less than this year because that was an upperclassman-laden team that needed Walker the distributer (he averaged 5.1 apg) more than Walker the scorer.
9. Philadelphia 76ers: John Henson, PF North Carolina So. (6-10, 210)
Last years over hyped North Carolina prospect John Henson has been very impressive to me this year. I'm really high on him in this draft because he has an abundance of two of the three things you want from a prospect: physical gifts and motor. The third thing you want is skills, and that's still coming for Henson (and I do believe it will come). Though he's a good scorer close to the basket, his perimeter game and shooting is still coming. However, like I said Henson is elitely gifted physically with tremendous length and super explosive leaping ability, as well as great lateral quickness, giving him the potential to be an ace defender in the NBA. However, the one thing that Henson must work on is his strength: at 6-10 he weighs at be 210 and he's not a Kevin Durant-type perimeter player, he's a true power forward in skill set.
10. Charlotte Bobcats: Josh Selby, PG Kansas Fr. (6-3, 190)
Josh Selby is an interesting prospect because he has elite physical ability, but isn't a pure point guard and is undersized to play the two guard position. So is a score first point guard worth a top ten pick? Absolutely. He reminds me a lot of Monta Ellis, not just because of the athletic ability, but also because he's always in attack mode, slashing to the basket. Unlike Ellis however, he's always committed to the defensive end and is an excellent defender. He has his warts, most mid-lottery players do, but you can't argue with getting a player with his scoring ability and potential, which could make him a Russell Westbrook-type who develops his point guard skills slowly, to the point that he can run a 50 win playoff team.
11. Golden State Warriors: Derrick Williams, SF Arizona So. (6-8, 220)
This is the perfect year for Derrick Williams to come out because of Landry Fields. Fields wasn't an ideal prospect by NBA standards, but he put up big numbers and carried his team. Williams has done both things for his team this year. He's putting up big numbers and helping a below average team play above average. The problem most scouts have with Williams is he's a tweener, too small to play power forward but without the perimeter skills to play the 3. I think Williams can play small forward and be a similar player to Al-Farouq Aminu, though Williams is a better 3-point shooter by far.
12. Phoenix Suns: Jan Vesely, PF Czech Republic (6-11, 240)
Jan Vesely has the potential to be a top 5 pick when we finally get around to the draft, but I'm being conservative with him for now, though he's a lock for the lottery, and probably the top 10. Vesely is a great athlete and can bang in the paint but also has an elite perimeter game for a 4 man, projecting him as a stretch 4 with the potential to round out his game and be a complete, Dirk Nowizki-lite player at the next level.
13. Memphis Grizzles: Brandon Knight, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-4, 190)
I think Brandon Knight would be best served going back to Kentucky for at least one more season to work on his point guard skills, but if he does come out, I think he still goes in the lottery. He'll never be a pure point guard, but as a role player on a good team or as a back up combo guard who can provide some scoring punch off the bench, I think he provides a great value. He's an excellent scorer with consistent NBA range (41% from 3), explosive driving and finishing ability and also decent passing ability. I'm a Knight fan because his scoring ability, motor and defensive ability is more than you could ask for in the late-lottery.
14. Houston Rockets: Donatas Motiejunas, PF Lithuania (7-0, 230)
Donatas Motiejunas surprised everyone by not entering the draft last year and it's not a lock he enters it this year, or ever. If he does, he's a lottery lock and a good chance for the top ten. Again, I'm being conservative with Euro-prospects because it's hard to know what to expect teams to thing of them right now. Motiejunas is very skilled and fairly athletic and he needs to add strength but his skill set (shooting, handling, passing, IQ) at his size (legit 7 feet) is phenomenal.
