Sunday, June 17, 2012

Top 10 pick breakdown

1. New Orleans Hornets
This one is a no-brainer, obviously the pick is going to be Anthony Davis. Davis is well above the rest of this draft as a prospect and is the only real franchise changer in the class. The real question is not what this pick will be, but what New Orleans will do with their second pick and in free agency.

2. Charlotte Bobcats
The Bobcats have 5 options here, the first is to trade the pick for more picks, which all told might be the best option because the Bobcats are that devoid of talent. If, however, they do end up picking here they'll be choosing between Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bradley Beal, Thomas Robinson, and Harrison Barnes. Though I like Andre Drummond as much or more as those prospects, given Michael Jordan's Kwame Brown experience and Drummond's fit on the team, I don't see him as a realistic option. Kidd-Gilchrist is very similar to former Charlotte favorite Gerald Wallace, but Jordan reportedly isn't sold on him. Kidd-Gilchrist isn't best suited as a top option on a team, which might be expected of him here and while he'll bring a winning attitude to the team, it's not going to make up for a lack of talent on the team. Beal might be the favorite as the pick right now, but he plays the same position as one of Charlotte's few NBA caliber players, Gerald Henderson. Barnes is the sleeper here, not only because of the Jordan/North Carolina ties but also because of his terrific combine: measuring, interviewing, and testing very well. Barnes is probably the second best fit, though he isn't considered the same level of prospect as the others and needs a. Robinson is probably the best fit, however, because he brings the same level of intensity as Kidd-Gilchrist, the early production of Barnes, the potential of Beal, and a good balance of offense and defense.

3. Washington Wizards
Depending on what the Bobcats do, Washington will be choosing from 3 of 4 players here: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bradley Beal, Harrison Barnes, and Thomas Robinson. Again, Andre Drummond is on the same level as a prospect, but I don't think with Nene and Kevin Seraphin there, plus the ordeal they've had with Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee, I don't think they'll be willing to risk Drummond. I love what Kidd-Gilchrist brings to the table and he'd be great for the culture in Washington, but the Wizards desperately need  shooting and a number 1 scorer, neither of which is his forte. Robinson would be a nice addition talent-wise, but seeing as the Wizards spent their top 10 pick on Jan Vesely last season and really like Trevor Booker, they might not think they have room for Robinson. Barnes fills the need of scorer and shooter, and would be a nice fit for them, but the Wizards like Chris Singleton a lot and have a big need at shooting guard, which is why Beal is the best fit. Beal is a terrific shooter and has big time scoring potential at the 2 guard, all three of which the Wizards really need.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers would love for Bradley Beal to fall to them, and the idea of an All-Star backcourt with Beal and Kyrie Irving is certainly very appealing, but right now it's looking unlikely that he gets here, unless Washington or Charlotte fall in love with Thomas Robinson and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. If Beal isn't there, the Cavaliers main targets will be Kidd-Gilchrist, Harrison Barnes, and Andre Drummond. Word is they really like Jeremy Lamb, but I don't think they'd take him here and that may be more of a smokescreen. Pairing Irving with a potential All-Star big man seems awesome in theory, but I'm not sure the Cavaliers are sold on Drummond, though Cleveland would be a great situation for him because he'd have a chance to learn from one of the best energy guys in the game, Anderson Varejao. Really though, unless Beal is here, I see this pick coming down to Kidd-Gilchrist and Barnes. Kidd-Gilchrist would fit well because the team already has a number 1 scorer, so he won't have to come and have a lot of pressure, but the Cavaliers roster already  has a plethora of energy guys (Verajao, Tristan Thompson, Omri Casspi) but a derth of skill and scoring. Therefore, I think Barnes is the best fit because he'll be an interchangeable 1/2 scorer with Irving and solid defense on the wing.

5. Sacramento Kings
The Kings are loaded down with guys who want to shoot and score, as DeMarcus Cousins, Marcus Thornton, Tyreke Evans, Isaiah Thomas, Jimmer Fredette, and John Salmons are all "offense first" players. They don't need scoring, which is why I don't think Harrison Barnes is a great fit, if he's available. Nor is Andre Drummond because he plays the same position as Cousins, the Kings best player. The Kings need players who can affect the game without scoring, and those two players are Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Thomas Robinson. Both play very hard, bringing an intensity and energy every night, and on the Kings can focus on rebounding and defense, while the rest of the Kings have enough shots to go around.

6. Portland Trail Blazers (from Brooklyn)
The Blazers are in a much better situation than most lottery teams because they have a premier player already in LaMarcus Aldridge, another young talented player in Nicolas Batum, and two lottery picks this year. Therefore they'll be in a position to make a run at the playoffs if the picks and their free agent acquisitions work out. At this pick they'll be looking at Harrison Barnes, Andre Drummond, Damian Lillard, Jeremy Lamb, and Dion Waiters. Barnes would be a total value pick if they took him here, but I don't know if they would unless they were convinced he could play shooting guard, because of Batum. Lillard would fill their need at point guard, as Raymond Felton is expected to move on. Portland also needs to find an upgrade for shooting guard, because they lack anyone who can create a shot and Wes Matthews is better suited as a bench player, Lamb and Waiters are strong possibilities. Portland will most likely be picking from Waiters, Lamb, or Lillard if Drummond isn't there, but Drummond is the best fit for the Blazers, despite their history with centers, because his size, defense, and rebounding would be a great fit next to the polished offensive game and shooting of Aldridge. Drummond wouldn't be under a lot of pressure to score, and could just focus on what he does best while he works on the rest of his game.

7. Golden State Warriors
The Warriors were apparently hoping that either Terrence or Perry Jones would come in an prove they could be a small forward in a recent workout, but were disappointed so they aren't interested in taking either. Why exactly is that? Because apparently they think they're a small forward away from competing (they aren't), but if that's the case why did they trade for Richard Jefferson and pay Dorell Wright? Combined they both make almost 15 million. And why don't they think that power forward is a need when defensively challanged David Lee is the only one on the roster? The Warriors need to find a power forward and either Jones, Jared Sullinger, or Arnett Moultrie could be in play here. I don't like Sullinger here, because he basically duplicates Lee, Moultrie is probably talented enough to go here, but various little issues make him a little bit too risky here, Perry Jones is very similar to past Warriors picks, so I think they don't go that way as an overreaction to criticism of past picks. Terrence Jones might be the best fit here because of his defense and athleticism, something the Warriors are in sore need of. Despite the fact that they drafted Klay Thompson last year, the Warriors also could look for some backcourt depth too.

8. Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are in a unique position because in addition to their top 10 pick this year, they'll be getting last years number 5 overall pick Jonas Valanciunas, who is coming over from Europe. So Toronto is in position to improve a lot this season, and in the East a little improvement could mean contending for one of the last playoff spots. They'd love Andre Drummond or Harrison Barnes to fall to them, but that seems unlikely at this point. In the case that neither are there, they'll likely be targeting a guard. Despite his efficiency, Toronto never seems content with Jose Calderon and have repeatedly tried to trade him, so they'll be sure to be considering Damian Lillard here, but the true need of this team is a elsewhere. Due to the fact that he can't shoot from deep and doesn't like guarding quick players, DeMarr DeRozan is better suited to play small forward, which means the Raptors should be targeting a shooting guard. Dion Waiters and Jeremy Lamb are the two top choices, but I wouldn't rule out Austin Rivers here because of the way that Bryan Colangelo likes to do his own thing. Lamb is the best prospect, but the toughness and tenacity of Waiters and Rivers might be the kind of player the Raptors need, as most of their roster is very laid back. Also, don't rule out Toronto reaching for a small forward like Moe Harkless or even Royce White.

9. Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are desperately seeking a front court partner for Greg Monroe, who is a good rebounder and high post player but really struggles defensively. They need an athletic big who can protect the rim and make a living around the basket. John Henson has the length and shotblocking ability needed, but he's plays outside the paint like Monroe, Arnett Moultrie is also a possibility, but I just don't see it. Meyers Leonard blew up at the combine and put himself in consideration here, he carries considerable risk but there isn't a better fit next to Monroe. Leonard is athletic and has nice touch around the basket. He needs work on offense, but the upside is huge and the downside is still a defensive center.

10. New Orleans Hornets (from Minnesota)
After taking Anthony Davis with the first overall pick, the Hornets will then be looking for someone to play along with him and Eric Gordon. Power forward and shooting guard are locked in with those two, but the Hornets have decent players at the other positions as well; they don't have a glaring need so they can really go best player available here. Unless someone unexpectedly falls, New Orleans should target Damian Lillard if he's available. Lillard is a scoring machine but he's such a smart, mistake free player that he should be able to run a team an play the point. Lillard and Gordon would be a dynamic one-two scoring punch and Lillard is the same kind of hardworking, high character player that Davis and Gordon are. If Lillard isn't there, another forward or a bench shooting guard option would be options.

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