Sunday, June 17, 2012

2nd Round Sleepers

Every year it seems that there are a couple second round picks the come into the NBA and have a big impact; last year it was Isaiah Thomas and Chandler Parsons, two years ago it was Landry Fields, and in 2009 it was DaJuan Blair and Marcus Thornton. In fact, in the last 5 seasons there have been 8 second rounders make the All-Rookie Team. Here's a look at some players who could be taken in the second but still make a big impact...

Marcus Denmon, SG Missouri Sr. (6-3¼, 188)
Why he could have an impact: Denmon is a terrific scorer who makes his living from deep. Denmon shot 41%, 49%, and 41% from three his last three seasons at Missouri, and made nearly 3 three pointers a game his Senior season. He has a quick release and get his feet set very quickly. Denmon's range extends well past the NBA three point line and he's has the ability to makes shots off the dribble, coming off of screens, and in catch-and-shoot situations. However, Denmon isn't a one trick pony, shooting 53% on 2 point baskets and 90% from the line. He can penetrate and is a very good finisher at the rim. Despite not being Missouri's primary ballhandler, he can handle the ball and has shown the ability to make plays for others, though he wasn't asked to very often in Missouri's offense. He also is a very smart player who rarely turned the ball over. Defensively, he should have no problem keeping quicker guards in front of him. Athletically, Denmon gets plenty of lift on his jumper, has good quickness and body control when finishing and moves very smoothly. Denmon's combine tests bear this out: he finished in the top 5 in max vertical (40 inches) and the sprint (3.19 seconds) as well as top 10 in the agility test (10.82 seconds).

Why he'll be a 2nd round pick: First off, Denmon is a Senior and 22 years old, which will automatically knock him down for a lot of teams. The reason for this is a perceived lack of upside, but given Denmon's physical ability and the fact that he's improved ea, ch season, it isn't crazy to think there's some upside here. However, because Denmon is such a polished and mistake free player already, the potential lack of upside isn't a huge issue. The other thing that hurts Denmon's stock is his size, at 6-3¼ he's undersized for his natural position at shooting guard and there are doubts he can play point guard even part time at the next level. Defensively, he'll give up inches on a lot of nights, but there are plenty of undersized 2s in the league who are 6-3 or under (Eric Gordon, Leandro Barbosa, Ben Gordon, Monta Ellis to name a few) but it's not something that teams like in a first round pick unless they're perceived to have a ton of upside.

Mike Scott, PF Virginia Sr. (6-8¾, 241)
Why he could have an impact: Virginia won 22 games last season and reached the NCAA Tournament for two reasons: defense and Mike Scott. Virginia was one of the most offensively challenged teams in the Country, ranking 274th in points per game but they were able to score enough to win because of Scott. Scott averaged 18 points per game (almost 30% of Virginia's scoring) and was the main option on the team. Scott was also efficient despite having to carry the team: shooting 56% from the floor and 80% from the line. Scott was also a major contributor to the teams defense that ranked 2nd in points allowed. Scott isn't a shot blocker (only 0.5 a game) but he's very strong, smart, physical, and moves his feet well. He'll never be a rim protector, but I could see a Chuck Hayes/Nick Collison-like defensive player at the next level. Scott brings that same physicality to rebounding and on offense where he can score inside and has nice touch around the rim. What really makes Scott special is his shooting, he's am excellent mid-range shooter and should eventually be able to stretch out to the 3 point line. Any big man that can play defense, shoot, and rebound has a place in the NBA.

Why he'll be a 2nd round pick: Due to injuries, Scott is a 5th year senior and will be 24 before the season starts. At that age, there's a pretty good chance that almost all upside is gone, except for one thing: shooting. Scott already has a nice jumper so there's no reason to think he can't improve it, age makes no difference to that. Scott also isn't terribly gifted with great size or athleticism, he's merely average. It's difficult for upside obsessed teams to take a 24 year old role player without much upside, but Scott is the kind of player that helps teams win.

Orlando Johnson, SG UC Santa Barbara Sr. (6-5¼, 224)
Why he'll have an impact: One of the best scorers in college basketball, Orlando Johnson is a power guard ala James Harden, or more recently Charles Jenkins, who makes a living using his size and strength to overpower guys at the rim. Johnson is a good at getting into the paint and finishing, but he's got a well rounded offensive game to go with it, including three point range (43% from 3) and a mid-range game. Johnson also plays very hard and it shows in the 5.8 boards a game. Johnson also tested very well at the combine, with a 6-11¼ wingspan and a 39½ inch vertical.

Why he'll be a second round pick: Johnson is hampered by two things: age and competition level. Like most all the players on this list, he's older than most prospects at 23 years old and that will potentially limit his upside, but again he's already got a polished offensive game. As for competition, Johnson didn't face the best  teams in conference, but he played Washington, Cal, BYU, and San Diego State and held his own in those games, but the lack of elite competition will hurt him in the eyes of teams.

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