The question with Anthony Davis isn't if he's going to be good, it's how good is he going to be. Davis is an incredible defensive player with all the physical tools along with natural instinct that you just can't teach. He should be a top 5 defensive player early in his NBA career. Offensively, Davis can hit a jumpshot and is terrific finishing around the rim, and while he's still figuring it out in the post, he improved every game in that respect. Plus he's got unique ball handling skills for his size. Not only is Davis bursting with talent, he plays hard all the time and is a hard worker on and off the court. The scariest thing about Davis is he's only scratching the surface of his talent.
NBA Comparison: Kevin Garnett, Boston
2. Andre Drummond, C Connecticut Fr. (6-11, 275)
While I completely understand why Andre Drummond scares teams, the upside at the position plus what he already offers make him the second most valuable prospect in the draft. Drummond is a rare physical specimen, really unequaled at his age. While Dwight Howard was as athletic at the same age, he wasn't as big. Height, weight, length, explosiveness, and mobility are all elite for the center position. Yes, he disappears for stretches and is inconsistent on offense, which needs a lot of work but he was the second best defensive player in the country last season (after Anthony Davis) and projects to be one of the best defensive centers in the league. It's not like Drummond is worthless on offense either, he can hit open jumpers and has shown the ability to hand the ball in the past, plus when you're as big, strong, and athletic as Drummond you're going to be able to power you're way into a couple baskets a game, or at worst be a weapon on lobs. What Drummond needs is polish and practice, which isn't surprising because he's 18 YEARS OLD. Even if Drummond doesn't improve at all, he'll still be a very good defender ala DeAndre Jordon, while his upside is Dwight Howard,
NBA Comparison: Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City
3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF Kentucky Fr. (6-7, 230)
Lets get it out of the way quickly: yes, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has an ugly jump shot with a gnarly hitch and only shot 26% from three. Now that's out of the way we can focus on all the other things Kidd-Gilchrist does. First, he has an amazing motor; going all out pursuing loose balls, fighting for rebounds, attacking the rim, challenging shots, grinding on defense, running the floor. Offensively, Kidd-Gilchrist excels at slashing to the rim and is a very good finisher, he also can over power wing players in the post. On defense, he's elite and frequently guarded the opponents point guard; in the NBA there's no reason to think he won't be able to guard positions 1 through 3 right away, while eventually being able to guard power forwards too once he gets stronger. On and off the court, Kidd-Gilchrist is a very hard worker and a natural leader who wants to win so badly that I wouldn't doubt he'll fix the jump shot, improve his ball handling and become a superstar.
NBA Comparison: Gerald Wallace, Brooklyn
4. Jeremy Lamb, SG Connecticut So. (6-5, 185)
I admit it, I'm not rational when it comes to Jeremy Lamb. Lamb is one of those players who floats gracefully around the court, he's just so smooth athletically and has tremendous movement skills. Offensively, he's got a pretty jumper that he can use of screens, the dribble, or spotting up, as well as good handles and a nice crossover. Lamb moves really well off the ball and has a polished offensive game that should score him 15 points a game right away, if not more, in the NBA. What makes Lamb so special though is his defense: great lateral movement and very long arms make him a nightmare on defense, with a little seasoning and strength, he could be a first team all defensive performer.
NBA Comparison: Paul George, Indiana
5. Thomas Robinson, PF Kansas Jr. (6-9, 235)
Thomas Robinson is one of the those players that is a joy to watch because of how hard he plays on every possession. Playing hard is a skill and it's one that, when combined with long arms, explosiveness, and brute strength make you tough to stop. Robinson was pretty much unstoppable in college because of it, grabbing almost twelve rebounds a game and throwing down highlight dunk after highlight dunk. In the NBA, he'll need to refine his skill a little more, though I don't think that'll be a huge problem because he seemed to improve every game college. Robinson is the kind of player that helps you win in the NBA.
NBA Comparison: Kenneth Faried, Denver
6. Bradley Beal, SG Florida Fr. (6-5, 195)
I'm probably lower on Bradley Beal than most, but it's not because I'm don't like him, in fact I like him a lot, I'm just higher on some other players for various reason. However, Beal does have star potential, though it's all going to hinge on the jumper. In his freshman year at Florida, Beal did everything except what he hangs his hat on as a prospect: shooting. He shot a disappointing 34% from 3, though there's no reason to think that a guy with Beal's picture perfect form and long history of elite shooting won't turn it around. And if he does, you'll get a very complete guard who can handle, play the point some, and is a terrific rebounder with an NBA body and high basketball IQ
NBA Comparison: Eric Gordon, New Orleans
7. Harrison Barnes, SF North Carolina So. (6-8, 210)
Harrison Barnes has been killed for what he doesn't do well, probably over compensation by those who voted him first team All-American and said he was the next Kobe. The truth is, Harrison Barnes is a natural scorer who averaged 17.1 points a game on the second best team in college basketball last season. Does he attack the rim as much as you'd like? No. Does he play aggressively all the time? No. But he's got great size, is a lock down defender, a very good shooter, plays hard, is smart, a leader, and isn't afraid of the big moments. Does he have superstar potential? Probably not, but he could average 20 points a game and make a few All Star teams.
NBA Comparison: Joe Johnson, Atlanta
8. Terrence Ross, G/F Washington So. (6-7, 190)
Everything about Terrence Ross screams NBA wing player. Ross has the prototypical size and athleticism of a wing player with a smoothness and coordination to his game that exemplifies what you look for in that position. Ross also has the game to fit the position as well, a silky jumper with deep range to go with slashing and finishing ability. On the defensive end, Ross is excellent too. He's got the quicks to stay in front of quicker guards and should be a very good defender. While Ross needs to get a little stronger to play the 3 on a regular basis, he competes on defense and is a very good rebounder for his position.
NBA Comparison: Jason Richardson, Orlando
9. Perry Jones III, F Baylor So. (6-11, 235)
Perry Jones is one of the more frustrating players in this draft, though the frustration for me isn't that he doesn't dominate the way his ability might dictate, for me the frustration is how poorly he was used in college. He's clearly more comfortable on the perimeter as small forward, but Scott Drew insisted on playing him at center. Another criticism of Jones is that he didn't take over games, that he shrunk from the moment. Watch the games, his guards didn't get him the ball, over dribbling and seeking their own shots. It's true, Jones has some work to do and needs to learn to use his abilities more aggressively, but put him in the right system where he's comfortable and you've got a super star.
NBA Comparison: Rudy Gay, Memphis
10. Damian Lillard, PG Weber State Jr. (6-2, 185)
This draft is really shallow on point guards, but if there's one guy that I'm fairly sure will stick in the league as more than a backup, it's Damian Lillard. He's a scoring point guard but that doesn't mean he can't run and offense, which I think is the underrated part of his game. At Weber State he was asked to be the main guy and he was the leading scorer in college basketball and the second most efficient player behind Anthony Davis. In the NBA Lillard will still be called on to score, but less, and be asked to run an offense, which due to his ability to penetrate, high basketball IQ, and lack of mistakes leads you to believe he certainly can do it.
NBA Comparison: Devin Harris, New Jersey
11. Dion Waiters, SG Syracuse So. (6-4, 215)
There's an obsession with players who can jump out of the gym or can blow by their defender, while strength and power are underrated. Dion Waiters is quick and can jump, but what makes him as a prospect is strength and power. Waiters is a very good ball handler and has a nice crossover to get to the rim, then he just overpowers the defender: a true power guard. Waiters needs to work on the consistency of his jumper as well as shot selection, but with the ability not only to get his own shot whenever he wants, but also to play the point some, there's a lot to love about his game.
NBA Comparison: James Harden, Oklahoma City
12. Jared Sullinger, PF Ohio State So. (6-9, 280)
Where Jared Sullinger goes in this draft will be a measuring stick of the value teams put on the safety of a pick. There's no doubt that Sullinger will bring rebounding, a high basketball IQ, and inside-outside scoring to whatever team takes him, but the question is will he ever be better than an average NBA starter. My guess is yes because I think he develops his jumpshot to the point that he's a legitimate stretch 4 with the same shooting/rebounding combination of Ryan Anderson with a little bit of Glen Davis help defense and below the rim scoring.
NBA Comparison: Ryan Anderson, Orlando
13. Terrence Jones, PF Kentucky So. (6-8, 245)
Terrence Jones is the ultimate love or hate prospect in this draft. Jones has tools to drool over: an NBA body with long arms and athleticism, versatility, ball handling, passing, rebounding and defensive acumen, as well as the potential to become a good shooter down the line (he's only adequate now). However, there's just as many how cringe at Jones' body language, wonder about his shot selection, and question his motor. As many worries there are about Jones, even his his worst case scenario he should provide rebounding, athleticism, and defense for a team.
NBA Comparison: Josh Smith, Atlanta
14. Andrew Nicholson, PF Saint Bonaventure Sr. (6-9, 235)
If I told you there was a power forward prospect in the NBA draft who had good to great physical tools, a great motor, was very productive in college, blocked 2 shots a game, shot 57% from the field and 43% from 3, you'd think he was going to be a lottery, if not a top 10 pick. However, that's not the case with Andrew Nicholson, despite having all that going for him and nothing in the way of weaknesses besides being a college senior. Nicholson is likely to go mid to late first round and I doubt that changes, however he'll be a steal at that point.
NBA Comparison: David West, Indiana
15. Arnett Moultrie, PF Mississippi State Jr. (6-11, 225)
When it comes to skills and physical ability, there aren't many players that are the equal of Arnett Moultrie: he's got prototype height, length, and athleticism for a power forward to go with a nice jumper, tremendous rebounding instincts, and inside touch. The reason Moultrie isn't going to go higher in the draft is perceived attitude issues and the fact that he's a late bloomer that he seemingly doesn't always play hard on defense (0.8 blocks a game for someone of him physical skill jumps out at you), but in the mid to late first round a prospect of his ability is a great value.
NBA Comparison: Jason Thompson, Sacramento
16. John Henson, PF North Carolina Jr. (6-10, 210)
The way the NBA is evolving, it's becoming necessary to have an athletic, shot-blocking big man who can protect the rim, but also cover stretch 4s on the perimeter as well as the pick-and-roll. John Henson has the ability to be that kind of versatile defensive weapon because of his wingspan, athleticism, and lateral quickness. Add to that his terrific rebounding, great motor, and excellent timing and you've got a potential elite defender. Plus Henson has a improving jumpshot on the offensive end. So why isn't he a top 5 pick? He's very thin and has struggled to put on any weight over three college seasons, that and he's raw on offense and has a questionable basketball IQ.
NBA Comparison: JaVale McGee, Denver
17. Austin Rivers, SG Duke Fr. (6-4, 200)
One of the most polarizing prospects in the draft, Austin Rivers is a love him or hate him player. If you watch the highlights, it's hard not to love him: he's got deep range on his jumpshot, good ball handling skills including a nasty crossover, and extreme confidence in himself with a desire to dominate. However, it's all the other stuff that causes people to sour on Rivers. The shot selection, the selfishness, the lack of elite physical tools, the perceived entitled attitude. Are all these criticisms fair? Probably not, but he's also given credit for abilities that also might not really be there.
NBA Comparison: O.J. Mayo, Memphis
18. Tyler Zeller, C North Carolina Sr. (7-0, 250)
Tyler Zeller is the embodiment of the word solid. Tyler Zeller does a little bit of everything well, though he may lack elite physical tools or a dominant skill (though he's very good running the floor), Zeller does it all. He can shoot out to 18 feet, has good touch around the basket and rebounds well, and while he doesn't project as a big time shot blocker, Zeller can protect the rim and draws charges. A low risk prospect.
NBA Comparison: Spencer Hawes, Philadelphia
19. Quincy Miller, SF Baylor Fr. (6-9, 210)
As a prospect there's a lot to like about Quincy Miller, but he's got one lingering issue: his knee. As a junior in high school, Miller was one of the best players in the country. However, Miler tore his ACL his senior year, and though he came back from it and had a really good freshman season, it wasn't up to the level of what he was. Now, when healthy he''s a top 5 talent in the draft due to his physical tools, ball handling skills, and shooting ability. ACL tears usually take two years to come back from so there's a good chance Miller returns to form, but it's a risk a lot of teams one want to take.
NBA Comparison: Al Harrington, Denver
20. Will Barton, SG Memphis So. (6-6, 175)
There are players who are just natural scorers, they have a nose for the ball and just figure out a way to get buckets. MarShon Brooks was one of those players in college and it translated to the NBA, this year that guy is Will Barton. Like Brooks, Barton is long and athletic, a great rebounder and a big time scorer who excels in mid-range scoring, can also slash and hit the occasional three pointer. Barton also really matured his junior season in terms of shot selection and should at least have a similar rookie season to Brooks, who was all rookie second team, though he needs to put on some weight.
NBA Comparison: MarShon Brooks, New Jersey
21. Meyers Leonard, C Illinois So. (7-0, 240)
The NBA is infatuated with centers, particularly those with high upside, and with good reason: there's such of a dearth of center talent in the league that if you get one, you have a massive advantage. Meyers Leonard is just the type of prospect that teams are going to fall in love with because he's big, long, and can jump. Leonard is a very good defensive player and has tools like quickness and touch that give you hope he'll turn into a offensive threat as well. A risky player to be sure, but a risk worth taking in the second half of the first round.
NBA Comparison: Byron Mullens, Bobcats
22. Kendall Marshall, PG North Carolina So. (6-4, 190)
Kendall Marshall is a classic case of comparing what player can do with what they can't do. If you focus on what he can't do, you see a point guard that isn't a penetrater, isn't super athletic, struggles to defend his position, and averaged 8.1 points per game in college, not a player that would even be considered in the draft. But that's how special the rest of what Marshall does is. He's was the best passer in college basketball and as pure of a point guard as there is who is terrific in transition and thinks pass first, second, and third. Add to that his improving jumpshot and you've got a quite useful player. A star? No, but someone that others players will love to play with and that can improve an offense without scoring a basket.
NBA Comparison: Greivis Vasquez, New Orleans
23. Evan Fournier, SG France (6-7, 205)
This is weakest draft as far as European players are concerned in years, with only one Euro likely to be taken anywhere near the first round. That one player is pretty good, however. Evan Fournier is a big wing player that excels at penetrating and finishing at the rim, as well as scoring from mid-range. Fournier has been very solid in France, scoring 14 points a game on shooting 55% from the field at only 19 years old. Long range shooting and defense are questions, but with Fourniers penetration and IQ are very appealing.
NBA Comparison: John Salmons, Sacramento
24. Jeff Taylor, SF Vanderbilt Sr. (6-7, 225)
The question about Jeff Taylor is whether he's turned to corner as a shooter. In his first two years he flat out couldn't shoot (16% from three) but he improved his junior (35%) before finally hitting for 41% his senior season. If that shooting is legit, added to Taylor's length, and high level athleticism, lockdown defense, and slashing ability and you've got a starter in the NBA.
NBA Comparison: Nicolas Batum, Portland
25. Tony Wroten Jr, PG Washington Fr. (6-5, 205)
On pure talent and potential, there might not be a better prospect than Tony Wroten. He's big, pure point, with Rose/Westbrook/Wall level athleticism who flies up and down the court, finishes at the rim, and is a special passer with eyes in the back of his head. So what the problem? His shot is broken and will need to be completely overhauled and he tends to play out of control and turn the ball over a lot. If he can reign it in and learn to shoot, you've got and All Star, if not you've got a career backup who'll make as many bad plays as he will good.
NBA Comparison: John Wall, Washington
26. Marquis Teague, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-2, 180)
It's oversimplifying things to say that Marquis Teague is just like his brother, but they are very similar. Both are about the same size and both are very quick, explosive and athletic with pretty go defensive ability. Marquis is a better shooter at this stage of development, but he needs to put some work in on that front. I also think that Marquis is a more pure of a point guard than his brother. He certainly isn't perfect as a prospect but there's no denying the talent and potential, or the intangibles of being the starting point guard on a national championship team that only lost twice.
NBA Comparison: Jeff Teague, Atlanta
27. Moe Harkless, SF St. John's Fr. (6-8, 195)
Moe Harkless had a very good freshman season and decided to turn pro despite having some weaknesses in his game. Harkless has NBA level size, length, and athleticism and is a good enough slasher and rebounder to be a clear first round pick, but to be drafted in the top 15 picks like I've seen in a couple places is much to high for a player who can't shoot (22% from 3), isn't very efficient, and doesn't always play hard, especially on defense.
NBA Comparison: Trevor Ariza, New Orleans
28. Royce White, SF Iowa State Jr. (6-8, 240)
Royce White is one of the more unique players in this draft, on physical talent and skillset alone, he's a lottery pick, he's big, athletic, can play point forward (5 apg), rebound (9.3 rpg), and score (13.4 ppg). However, White has had numerous offcourt problems, was kicked off the Minnesota basketball team, and has anxiety issues due to a fear of flying. If White can keep it together off the court, he'll be a very good NBA player, if not he'll be out of the league quickly.
NBA Comparison: Tobias Harris, Milwaukee
29. Fab Melo, C Syracuse So. (7-0, 275)
There's no doubting the rare size and length of Fab Melo, nor that he has improved dramatically in two seasons at Syracuse. However, he is limited offensively, and has some weight concerns and off the court red flags. Melo is a very good shotblocker and can be a difference maker on the defensive end clogging the lane and taking charges, as well as being a good screener, but if it isn't a point blank layup or dunk he struggles. Melo could be a very good defensive weapon but he's also got a lot of work to do on offense.
NBA Comparison: Robin Lopez, Phoenix
30. Hollis Thompson, SF Georgetown Jr. (6-7, 205)
To succeed in the NBA, you need to have a least one bankable skill to stick, for Hollis Thompson it's his shooting ability. Thompson shot 43% from 3 in his college career and has range out to the NBA three point line. Add to that Thompson's size, length, and athleticism and you've got a prototype of the defense and shooting wing player that's become so popular in the NBA.
NBA Comparison: Dorell Wright, Golden State
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