Five Breakout NBA players in 2017-18

After an offseason full of player movement, the start of the season means new opportunities for many players across the league. These five players not only have bigger roles waiting for them, but also the skills to take advantage and break out.

Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
This is the obvious one, Rodney Hood is sure to be all over breakout/most important player lists this preseason; it's clear that Hood needs to take a step forward for the Jazz to return to the playoffs. With Gordon Heyward gone, Hood is Utah's top remaining perimeter scorer and will be there go-to scoring option. It is important to note that Utah's egalitarian offense system won't feature a lot of iso situations, but no offense can rely completely on ball+player movement, there will plenty of times that individual shot creation will be required and Hood will probably lead the team in such opportunities. He won't replace Heyward 1-to-1, the Jazz will count on Ricky Rubio's passing, a Derrick Favors/Alec Burks health bounce-back, and rookie Donovan Mitchell to fill the void, but Hood will be the biggest piece in a group effort. For and foremost, health will be crucial for Hood, who has two seasons playing less than 60 games sandwiched between a nearly complete season of 79 games. Assuming health, Hood will need to not only sustain what he has been good at in the past but also develop his game to become more of a primary offensive option. Hood's strengths are obvious, he is a very good shooter from deep (.371 from three point range) and at 6-8 he has no trouble getting his shot off, while his patience running pick-and-roll allows him to be effective off the dribble without the burst normally associated with such actions. Where Hood needs to get better is inside the arc; his career fee throw rate (.196) and 2-point percentage are (.458) are well below average. Lacking that burst, Hood will need to hone his craft, using his size to finish over shorter players and become more active off the ball, getting easy shots at the basket via cuts and backscreens. Playing with more than willing passers like Rubio and Joe Ingles should allow Hood to get some easier looks, particularly on the break. Utah isn't a very fast-paced team (though that might change with Rubio) by Gordon Heyward excelled at leaking out ahead of the pack, something Hood should attempt to emulate. It's not that Hood is a lazy player by any means, but he can be somewhat low energy and not assertive hunting his own shot, which is exactly what the Jazz need of him. Also, in a contract year, Hood could really help his own financial situation with a big year, or tank it with a bad one.

Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics
The Celtics traded away their two top perimeter defenders and replaced them with a decidedly bad defender (Kyrie Irving), an okay one (Marcus Morris) and a very good one (Gordon Heyward). Heyward and Morris should at least hold serve replacing Jae Crowder but Avery Bradley is a different story. Irving will slot into Isaiah Thomas' role as resident defensive sieve but without Bradley there to match-up on the opposing point guard, that duty will fall in crucial moments on Marcus Smart, who is up to the task on that end of the floor. Whether or not he can replace Bradley's offensive contributions is more of an open question. Smart's size, strength, and tenacity make him one of best, most versatile defender in the league, able to battle bigger players in the post while pestering on the perimeter with quick feet and hands. Despite his willingness to fire away 4+ three-pointers a game, Smart is a terrible three-point shooter (.291 career) and his .422 percentage on two-point shots is just as putrid (compare that with Avery Bradley's .390 and .504 marks, respectively, last season). At this point, defenses have little to fear by leaving him wide open outside the arc, something that will really hurt the Celtics in crunch time, which is exactly when they will need him on the floor. So how can he be successful? In his prime, Tony Allen couldn't shoot and would routinely flub wide-open layups, yet was a successful player for years. Obviously being one of the best perimeter defenders in NBA history helped (Smart is excellent but he isn't quite Allen's level) but that didn't sort out his offense. On that end, Allen was always hunting for easy shots for himself, crashing the glass, sprinting in transition, and was such a threat to cut to the basket that defenses had to pay attention to him even if he wasn't going to shoot. That's the template use for his success, work as hard off the ball offensively as he does on defense. And Smart, while still a really bad shooter, can get hot at times which means that he can take a three from time to time, when wide open, he just shouldn't be so shot happy from there. Like Hood, Smart is also in a contract year and has some financial incentive to be better than he has been.

Allen Crabbe, Brooklyn Nets
With Portland, Crabbe played a crucial role in the Blazers offensive when he was on the floor, spacing the floor for Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, courtesy of a .444 shooting percentage from behind the arc. In Brooklyn, Crabbe will be performing a similar task for D'Angelo Russell and Jeremy Lin. However, Russell and Lin are lower usage players than Lillard and McCollum, which should give Crabbe a chance to take even more three than the 3.8 he attempted per game last season. 73 players attemped more threes than Crabbe last season. As a member of the Nets last season, Bojan Bogdanovic attempted 5 threes a game, if Crabbe takes that many or more a game (last season he was at 3.8) and continues to make 40%+ from three, a breakout offensive performance is very possible. Brooklyn took the third most threes last season (more than Golden State believe it or not) and will look to shoot even more this season, a plan that suits Crabbe just fine. The other factor here is that Brooklyn has every incentive to play Crabbe starters minutes, as they just used much of their copious cap space in order to acquire him, and had attempted to get him in the past. More opportunities is often all that it takes for a NBA player to have breakout campaign.

Jerami Grant, Oklahoma City
As of now, the Thunder's backup center is Dakari Johnson, who might not even make the roster. Unless the Thunder find a veteran big man, they'll have to find someone to backup Steven Adams. While a 6-8, 210 pound forward like Jerami Grant might not seem like the prime option, but Grant's defensive potential as someone who can switch and block shots, is actually ideal for playing center in the modern NBA, especially against backup centers who aren't going to kill him in the post. In less advantageous matchups, say against a lumbering post scorer like Jahlil Okafor, Grant would be just as much of a matchup problem because of his ability to make straight line drives and passably shoot from three, skills that will play up as a center. Last season, Grant made .371 of his 144 three-point attempts, something he will look to keep up in his first full year with the Thunder, if not at that level at least at a passable 33-35%, which would be very good if he is playing at center. Likewise, Grant isn't a superb driver but is quick for his size and is a vicious finisher when he gets to the rim. As a backup center, playing with some combination of Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony, Grant will be asked to space the floor, attack closeouts, and finish lobs, all things he has shown the ability to do in the past. Defensively, Grant is one of the elite shot blockers in the NBA, finishing 11th in the NBA in block percentage (The Greek Freak is the only non-center ahead of him) so Grant has part of the big man skills down pat, though he will drastically need to improve as a rebounder in order to make it work at center. His 7.4 defensive rebound would rank second to last season among centers, besting only 35 year old, ground-bound Boris Diaw. Part of that poor number is the amount of time Grant spent playing small forward (and playing with high level rebounders that grabbed the boards instead) but no doubt he must improve to at least league average on the glass, an accomplishment that seems possible given his length and leaping ability. If Grant can stay a solid shooter and top level defender, while also improving his rebounding, a breakthrough to becoming one of the better backups in the NBA is definitely possible.

Norman Powell, Toronto Raptors
The Raptors roster has changed quite a bit over that last year, with players coming and going. Of the top ten per game minute getters last season, half of them are gone and their replacements are mostly unproven players. On the wing, the Raptors have presumed starters DeMar DeRozan and CJ Miles, then injured rookie OG Anunoby, still raw Bruno Caboclo, and multiple time castoff KJ McDaniels. These are the players Norman Powell is competing with for minutes. In fact it can be argued that Powell is the second best wing on the roster, ahead of Miles. Assuming there are 96 minutes available on the wing, DeRozan will take about 36 of them, leaving 60 minutes to be divided up among the rest. Whether it be from 25 to 30 minutes a game, Powell is sure to see a boost in minutes from the 18 a game he averaged last season. And honestly, as far as talent is concerned, playing time may be all that Powell needs to break out. Despite being relatively short for a wing, Powell is strongly built and has long arms to challenge bigger, stronger players defensively. Offensively, his jumper could stand to be more consistent, he is somewhat streaky, but where Powell stands out is his ability to beat defenders off the dribble and make plays going towards the basket. Powell took 41% of his shots withing 0-3 feet of the basket and made an excellent .606% of those shots. Given his ability defensively and a solid outside stroke, Powell should be the first player off the bench in Toronto, if not the starter by season's end.

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2015 Draft Review: Toronto Raptors

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Kyle Lowry/Delon Wright

SG: DeMar DeRozan/Terrence Ross/Norman Powell

SF: DeMarre Carroll/Bruno Caboclo

PF: Patrick Patterson/James Johnson

C: Jonas Valenciunas/Lucas Nogueira

2015 Free Agents

SF Landry Fields

PF Tyler Hansbrough

C Chuck Hayes

PF Amir Johnson

C Greg Steimsma 

G Lou Williams

What They Did On Draft Night

Drafted Utah point guard Delon Wright 20th Overall

After trading Greivis Vasquez, the Raptors needed a backup point guard and had the chance to select one that complimented Kyle Lowry better while also improving the team's biggest weakness. Delon Wright can legitimately play point guard, but has the size to defend wings meaning he can play alongside Lowry as well, relieving some of Toronto's reliance on his playmaking and hopefully keeping him from wearing down. Wright is also an excellent defender, a huge upgrade over what Vasquez offered on that end, that should help improve the Raptor's defense when he is on the floor. Wright is 23, so basically a finished product, but ready to play basically right away and could form a nice second unit backcourt combo with Terrence Ross, who compliments Wright's one big weakness: shooting.

Traded Greivis Vasquez to Milwaukee for Norman Powell and a 2016 conditional first-round pick

Getting a first round pick of any kind for a backup on an expiring deal is a good move, especially when you have a ready made replacement that fits you team better available to you in the draft. Toronto also got back the draft rights to the 46th pick, which the used on Norman Powell. The idea behind drafting Powell is similar to that of Wright: find more creators that can get to the rim and take some pressure off of Kyle Lowry. Powell also somewhat duplicates what Lou Williams brought to the team, so if he departs in free agency, Toronto at least has a creative scorer type to try as a potential replacement.

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NBA Draft: Potential Role Players

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The lottery and much of the first round of the NBA Draft is driven by the search for potential. However, no team is made up of just high-ceiling stars, role players are needed to fit in various facets of both offense and defense, as starters and bench players. There are several archetypes for these roles which every team needs in the modern NBA.

3-and-D
The name says it all, 3-and-D players excel in two areas: defense and shooting. They are usually wing players who don't create their own shot well, but can finish the opportunities made for them by others. The most important way they do this is by spotting up to keep defenses spread out and making them pay if they are helped off of. Danny Green is a good example of a 3-and-D wing, big men can also be 3-and-D players if their primary offense comes from shooting the ball, yet they can still block shots and protect the basket, some might consider Myles Turner to become this, though I think his upside is higher than role player. However, there are two players in this draft of the former description...

Justin Anderson, SF Virginia (6-6, 227) Age: 21
Anderson is questionable as a 3-and-D prospect because there is some question about his shooting. However, there is no issues with his defense: Anderson is built to defend small forwards, despite only average height, Anderson's 6-11 wingspan and powerful build should allow him to hold up physically against even the strongest 3s in the NBA. I'm not sure he has the lateral quickness to defend all shooting guards, but since he'll likely be coming off the bench, coaches will be able to manage his assignments. The shooting aspect is a different matter; after shooting 30% from 3 his first two seasons (on 168 attempts) Anderson dramatically improved that rate to 45% (104). The question is, which shooter will show up on a consistent basis? The answer to that will determine much of Anderson's NBA value.

Anthony Brown, G/F Stanford (6-6, 215) Age: 22
Brown has no concerns about his shooting after he made 132 three pointers the last two seasons on 45% shooting from deep. Defensively, he lacks the upside of Anderson because he isn't going to rack up huge steal or block totals, instead he is just an extremely solid perimeter defender who can check both guards and forwards. Brown adds additional value because he is a decent ball-handler and willing passer, however it is his shooting and defense that will be his primary responsibility at the next level. Because he is 22 and a fifth-year Senior, Brown will likely not be drafted till at earliest the end of the first round, but whoever takes him should be getting a solid contributor in both ends of the floor.

Back-up Point Guard
This is the golden age of point guards in the NBA, there are so many great starting point guards out there is seems like a team is behind the 8-ball without one. There is still, as always, a need for backups: Ramon Sessions (64 games, 11.17 PER), Brian Roberts (72 games, 11.74 PER), Steve Blake (81 games, 9.48 PER!) and many others played prominent roles in the NBA last season and where less than productive. It's easy to overlook point guards in the draft that lack flash and upside, but there is a big need for them in the NBA. In this draft, Tyus Jones and Cameron Payne could be considered for this category, but they have more of a chance to start.

Delon Wright, G Utah (6-5, 190) Age: 23
Wright can be an impact player because of all that he does to help his team win. Wright is an excellent defender who can sick with either guard spot while also disrupting offenses with his aggressiveness and help defense (2.1 steals, 1 block a game). While defense will likely be his calling card, Wright can also play either guard spot on offense as well. Wright sees the floor well and is unselfish (sometimes too much) enough to run an offense. He is most effective slashing to the rim with long strides, but Wright has also shown the ability to make outside shots as well to the point he is good enough from there (36%) to play off the ball as well. Wright is a very smart player with a natural understanding to the game. His defense, passing, and efficient offensive profile will make Wright and instant impact in the NBA, though as a 23 year-old he is upside is limited, what he is now is good enough to be a rotation player.

T.J. McConnell, PG Arizona (6-1, 195) Age: 23
McConnell is a long shot to even get drafted, let alone make a roster, but in a Matthew Dellavedova out-of-nowhere kind of way, he could stick. McConnell is a very steady player with a good understanding of running an offense; he looks to pass and set-up teammates first and to score second. McConnell was actually good at the rim last season (67%) excellent from mid-range (44%) and though he only shot 32% from three, he was above 36% from there his previous three seasons. Defensively, McConnell is physically limited but puts for great effort and has a nose for the ball (2.2 steals a game). McConnell orchestrated an excellent offense at Arizona and was the tip of the defensive spear for one of the best defenses in the country.

Instant Offense
More commonly known as "gunner," "microwave player" and any other number of colloquialisms, but they all refer to the same type of player. The type that can come off the bench and score in bunches. Sometimes they are score-first combo guards who can't run an offense for a sustained amount of time (Isaiah Thomas), defense-negative wing players (Jamal Crawford), or streaky shooters who can make or miss five shots in a row at the drop of a hat (Gerald Green). Whatever the profile, the role is the same: come off the bench, score points.

Terry Rozier, PG Louisville (6-1, 190) Age: 21
Rozier is quite simply a shooting guard built like a smaller point guard, which just isn't the type of player that is likely to be an NBA starter. Rozier is at his best in attack mode, going full bore towards the rim and drawing fouls. He is very fast playing straight ahead in the full-court and difficult to stay in front of or keep from getting to the spots he wants to. Rozier would be a nice fit with an athletic second unit that can run with him and push the pace. He also add nice additional value defending point guards with pressure defense, though his lack of a consistent 3-point shot hurts (33% career shooter). His shot selection leaves a lot to be desired as well, but that isn't a killer in the gunner role.

Michael Qualls, SG Arkansas (6-6, 210) Age: 21
Qualls has exactly the kind of size/length/athleticism of a starting shooting guard in the NBA, but his style of play is more suited to coming off the bench. Qualls is a ball of energy on both ends of the court, attacking the basket with sometimes reckless abandon which usually ends with a dunk, acrobatic layup attempt, or turnover. Defensively it is the same story, he will over pressure his man to the point that it can lose effectiveness; he has the potential to be better but needs to tone it down and focus more of fundamentals. Qualls attacking style will work best off the bench alongside and uptempo point that can take advantage of his ability to fly up the floor for dunks. Right now, this is Qualls ceiling, but if he can improve his defense and become a better shooter then he could become a valuable starter similar to another Mike Anderson-coached player: DeMarre Carroll.

Norman Powell, SG UCLA (6-4, 215) Age: 21
Powell is another undersized shooting guard who is at his best getting to the basket, where he takes nearly half of his shots. While not overwhelmingly quick or athletic, Powell is very crafty and smooth with the ball in his hands with a strong frame and long 6-11 arms. Those physical traits help him on the defensive end as well, where he could be at least average against shooting guards with some work. What is holding Powell back is his jump shot, which is streaky at best, ineffective at worst. Not being able to consistently make 3s cause defenses to play off him and remove some of his ability to drive. However, if a team is just looking for a guard to break down a defense, Powell would fit.

Rashad Vaughn, SG UNLV (6-6, 210) Age: 18
Vaughn is the classic gunner profile, he takes all kinds of shots, some of them cringe-worthy, from all over the court: chucking 3s, putting his head down and driving to the basket, improbably mid-range pullups. However, for as bad as some of his shot selection was (it wasn't all bad) he was actually remarkably efficient on them, posting above-average percentages at all parts of the floor except the rim, where he not very good, most likely a product of so-so athletic ability and shorter arms. So while Vaughn can get hot and knock down bad shots, that is a very questionably translatable skill. Bad shots get harder in the NBA and coaches have increasingly less patience for inefficient players who provide little else aside from scoring. The good news: Vaughn won't turn 19 until August.

Tyler Harvey, SG Eastern Washington (6-4, 185) Age: 21
Harvey has one special skill that makes him a prime candidate for coming off the bench and providing instant offense: shooting. Harvey can make any kind of jump shot you can think of, whether it be spotting up, of the dribble, pulling up, in transition, turning around, of balance, off curls, with a defender in his face, it doesn't matter. There is absolutely no questioning this skill, it is the rest of his game that makes him a candidate to come off the bench. Harvey is decent with the ball in his hands and good enough to function as a secondary ball-handler, but a point guard he is not. Additionally, he has the physical profile to guard point guards, but bigger two guards will likely give him trouble. Harvey is an interesting case, he will certainly have a role as a shooter off the bench ala an Eddie House, but it is also not impossible to see him improving in some areas to the point he is an Eric Gordon-lite, mostly he settles somewhere in the middle as sort of what many thought Jimmer Fredette would be.

Olivier Hanlan, G Boston College (6-4, 190) Age: 22
Playing in the relative obscurity of Boston College basketball, Olivier Hanlan quietly led the ACC in scoring last season, capping off three very successful seasons for the Eagles. Hanlan is very good at creating his own shot and should be able to do it against non-elite defenders in the NBA, he isn't vertically explosive but is very sudden in his movement and changes of direction. He is a prime candidate to come off the bench because he is undersized but good enough of a playmaker to play point guard in small, controlled run against favorable matchups; not a natural at the position by any means, but good enough to get his scoring onto the floor without getting killed defensively.

Joseph Young, SG Oregon (6-2, 185) Age: 22
Young is yet another shooting guard built like a point guard, but he was so good the last three years for Oregon and Houston, (averaging between 18 and 21 points with very good percentages) that teams should definitely give him a look at least as a UDFA. Young is a very good athlete who can create his own shot and score efficiently from all over the floor. If a team has the personnel or system to play Young at point guard, without asking him to handle too many point guard duties, he could really flourish in as a Jason Terry type of player.

3rd/4th Big Man
It is an easy concept to grasp that the bigger a basketball player is, the more likely they will be be to need rest during games and the less likely they are to stay healthy. Therefore, quality frontcourt depth is crucial to success. There are a lot of reasons a big man might come off the bench, sometimes it is to control their defensive matchups (Carl Landry), other times it is because they are limit offensively (Ed Davis) or they are undersized (Trevor Booker). Whatever the reason, there are several potential quality backups in this draft....

Trey Lyles, PF Kentucky (6-10, 235) Age: 19
While consensus may be split on Lyles offensive ability, it is hard to find an argument that his defense will top out at anything but average, with the likelihood he is even worse in that area. Not particularly laterally quick or overall athletic, Lyles will work off the bench because coaches can limit his exposure against the better offensive power forwards in the league. Lyles verses the Blake Griffins of the NBA on a nightly basis? No Thanks, but against Patrick Patterson? I'll take my chances.

Montrezl Harrell, PF Louisville (6-8, 240) Age: 21
Harrell is undersized, but he has the long arms, athletic ability, and non-stop motor to have an impact simply because he will outwork opponents most nights. However, for 35 minutes a game against the best of the best, this may be less effective as Harrell tries to conserve energy. Though, if you cut that down to 18 minutes and let him go all out defending, crashing the glass, and sprinting up and down the floor in transition, Harrell could be valuable and effective.

Jarell Martin, PF LSU (6-10, 236) Age: 20
Martin is very talented and does just about everything you want from a power forward, but the problem is he does it all at an average or slightly above level, lacking an elite skill. This plays well off the bench for many teams because on a night-to-night basis because he will be versatile enough to fill in the gaps needed for whatever combination of starters and bench players you wish to use. One note: Martin had a rep as a better shooter than he has been so far, if his results lives up to that talent then he could become a starter.

Jordan Mickey, PF LSU (6-8, 235) Age: 20
Martin's teammate Jordan Mickey is a different type of player, a defensive and rebound specialist that will be excellent as a matchup piece for use against perimeter based power forwards. When not being used in this role, Mickey will still have value because he is an excellent shot blocker and rebounder. Offensively, Mickey can finish around the basket but at this point that is the only bankable ability on that end, which will limit his potential to make an NBA team.

Dakari Johnson, C Kentucky (7-0, 255) Age: 19
Johnson is an old school center who plays below the rim, rebounds at a solid rate, and does all of his damage in the paint. As a starter, he could hurt spacing and potentially compromise a defensive scheme. However, as a back-up he could excel versus lighter bigs and provide work on the glass. He isn't a dangerous shot blocker, but he can at least use his size to get in the way. I take the under on minutes as a start for Johnson, but the over for years in the league because he will provide quality insurance and depth while beating up on lesser centers.

Aaron White, PF Iowa (6-9, 220) Age: 22
White making it in the NBA will be based almost solely on whether his 3-point shooting from last year is real. Prior to shooting 36% from deep, White never made more 28% of his 3s. If the shooting is real, White could be valuable spacing the floor while also not be a total negative defensively and on the glass, provided his matchups and minutes are managed. If the shooting isn't real, White will have a great career in the D-League or overseas.

Rakeem Christmas, F/C Syracuse (6-9, 250) Age: 23
Christmas was a defensive specialist up until last season when he took a big step forward and carried Syracuse's offense with strong post play. He isn't starter material because his offense player more like a center, with little range, but he lacks the size to play there. However, as an energy big off the bench he can provide plus defense and even score some in the post when presented with a favorable matchup. This may not sound  too sexy, but it is valuable.

Anyone with role player potential that I missed?

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