Showing posts with label Nets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nets. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Fantasy NBA: 5 Potential Draft Bargains

Early round picks have all the excitement, but nailing picks in the later rounds can be just as important to winning your fantasy league:

Dewayne Dedmon, C, Atlanta Hawks
Any one who has done a fantasy draft this year knows that rebounds and blocks are difficult to come by, and centers really dry up quickly. Enter Dewayne Dedmon, who has two things going for him: first, he is one of two true centers on the Atlanta Hawks roster and second, he isn't Miles Plumlee. Dedmon seems like a good candidate to soak up a lot of minutes, where the hope is he can give you rebounds and blocks. Dedmon's per 36 minute stats are excellent 10.5 points, 13.4 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, so the hope is that if he gets starters minutes in Atlanta, he will produce around that level. This is not a sexy pick, and Dedmon doesn't have much upside to speak of but he's a step above the rebound/block specialist that really just helps you in one area.

Skal Labissiere, PF/C Sacramento Kings
This one you might require some patience, or maybe if the league is shallow enough you just book mark him in your waiver-wire, but by seasons end there is a good chance that Skal Labissiere will be producing big time for your team. Skal is the most talented big man on the Kings roster, and though it might take some time, he should be playing starters minutes at one of the big man spots for the Kings. The reason he might not get the minutes load he should is that Kings head coach Dave Joerger has been reunited with Zach Randolph and, like any head coach, he wants to win games, which means he will likely lean on his vets more than a rebuilding team probably should (for the same reason, De'Aaron Fox isn't a higher pick) but once it is clear that the Kings are going to lose no matter how they play (and that Randolph should be a starter at this point) Skal will be the one to benefit. Look for him to produce points, rebounds, good percentages, and some blocks as well.

Jeremy Lin, PG/SG Brooklyn Nets
Lin always seems to be pushed out of real life basketball teams for one reason or another, which leads him to be undervalued in fantasy as well. The Nets acquired D'Angelo Russell in the offseason, intending to build around him, which immediately led to a perceived downgrade in Lin's value. Not so fast my friend! True, Lin as lead perimeter dog is a thing of the past, but the Nets play at an absurd pace, tops in the NBA last season, which means plenty of opportunities for both Lin and Russell, not to mention the fact that Brook Lopez and his 29.2% usage rate are now gone or the fact that those two are the only proven guards on the roster, or the fact that Russell is the better shooter, which means it will make more sense for Lin to have the ball more often. Per 36 last season, Lin averaged 21.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 7.5 assists, and 1.7 steals. If Lin proves he is healthy and can handle a 30 minute load, you could get a starting point guard (minus threes, but seriously everyone shoots 3s now) for a backup price.

Eric Gordon, SG Houston Rockets
Gordon was a top 10 shooting guard option last year, finishing fourth in the NBA with 246 three pointers (the three players ahead of him are all first three round picks), and yet ESPN has him ranked as their 20th overall shooting guard, behind an injured Zach LaVine among others (this does include players that also play other positions, but still). Gordon's injury history certainly plays a part in that but now that he is away from the New Orleans Saints Pelicans questionable training staff, that isn't as big of a concern. It is also easy to see how Gordon could be better this year than last: it's his second year in the system, Lou Williams isn't around to steal second unit shots any more and, he'll pretty much always be sharing the floor with either James Harden or Chris Paul, two of the best passer in the league who will also draw a ton of attention. Gordon is the Rockets third best player and will be on the floor in crunch time as well. If you find yourself low on threes, don't be afraid to pull the trigger on this gunner.

 Kent Bazemore, SG/SF Atlanta Hawks
After receiving a big contract, Kent Bazemore Bazed-Less and was considered a disappointment, though it was really only his field goal percentage (.409%) that let fantasy teams down in the aggregate; anyone expecting super-star production was going to be let down no matte what Bazemore did. Just as the real life Bazemore is a glue guy, that is his role for your team, giving you a little bit of everything: least season he averaged 11 points, 1.3 threes, 3.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists 1.2 steals, 0.7 blocks. Nothing that stands out, but nothing that hurt you either while the 0.7 blocks is great from a shooting guard. Now take into account that Bazemore did that in just 26.9 minutes a game. That Hawks teams was a playoff team with multiple offensive weapons. Now, Bazemore might be the best player on the whole team! Expect his minutes to go up and his all around production to be close to his per 36 numbers. Tyler Johnson all falls into the catagory, a guard that provides you with rebounds and blocks at a higher number than you'd expect without killing you in other areas. Every little bit counts.

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Sunday, October 8, 2017

Five Breakout NBA players in 2017-18

After an offseason full of player movement, the start of the season means new opportunities for many players across the league. These five players not only have bigger roles waiting for them, but also the skills to take advantage and break out.

Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
This is the obvious one, Rodney Hood is sure to be all over breakout/most important player lists this preseason; it's clear that Hood needs to take a step forward for the Jazz to return to the playoffs. With Gordon Heyward gone, Hood is Utah's top remaining perimeter scorer and will be there go-to scoring option. It is important to note that Utah's egalitarian offense system won't feature a lot of iso situations, but no offense can rely completely on ball+player movement, there will plenty of times that individual shot creation will be required and Hood will probably lead the team in such opportunities. He won't replace Heyward 1-to-1, the Jazz will count on Ricky Rubio's passing, a Derrick Favors/Alec Burks health bounce-back, and rookie Donovan Mitchell to fill the void, but Hood will be the biggest piece in a group effort. For and foremost, health will be crucial for Hood, who has two seasons playing less than 60 games sandwiched between a nearly complete season of 79 games. Assuming health, Hood will need to not only sustain what he has been good at in the past but also develop his game to become more of a primary offensive option. Hood's strengths are obvious, he is a very good shooter from deep (.371 from three point range) and at 6-8 he has no trouble getting his shot off, while his patience running pick-and-roll allows him to be effective off the dribble without the burst normally associated with such actions. Where Hood needs to get better is inside the arc; his career fee throw rate (.196) and 2-point percentage are (.458) are well below average. Lacking that burst, Hood will need to hone his craft, using his size to finish over shorter players and become more active off the ball, getting easy shots at the basket via cuts and backscreens. Playing with more than willing passers like Rubio and Joe Ingles should allow Hood to get some easier looks, particularly on the break. Utah isn't a very fast-paced team (though that might change with Rubio) by Gordon Heyward excelled at leaking out ahead of the pack, something Hood should attempt to emulate. It's not that Hood is a lazy player by any means, but he can be somewhat low energy and not assertive hunting his own shot, which is exactly what the Jazz need of him. Also, in a contract year, Hood could really help his own financial situation with a big year, or tank it with a bad one.

Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics
The Celtics traded away their two top perimeter defenders and replaced them with a decidedly bad defender (Kyrie Irving), an okay one (Marcus Morris) and a very good one (Gordon Heyward). Heyward and Morris should at least hold serve replacing Jae Crowder but Avery Bradley is a different story. Irving will slot into Isaiah Thomas' role as resident defensive sieve but without Bradley there to match-up on the opposing point guard, that duty will fall in crucial moments on Marcus Smart, who is up to the task on that end of the floor. Whether or not he can replace Bradley's offensive contributions is more of an open question. Smart's size, strength, and tenacity make him one of best, most versatile defender in the league, able to battle bigger players in the post while pestering on the perimeter with quick feet and hands. Despite his willingness to fire away 4+ three-pointers a game, Smart is a terrible three-point shooter (.291 career) and his .422 percentage on two-point shots is just as putrid (compare that with Avery Bradley's .390 and .504 marks, respectively, last season). At this point, defenses have little to fear by leaving him wide open outside the arc, something that will really hurt the Celtics in crunch time, which is exactly when they will need him on the floor. So how can he be successful? In his prime, Tony Allen couldn't shoot and would routinely flub wide-open layups, yet was a successful player for years. Obviously being one of the best perimeter defenders in NBA history helped (Smart is excellent but he isn't quite Allen's level) but that didn't sort out his offense. On that end, Allen was always hunting for easy shots for himself, crashing the glass, sprinting in transition, and was such a threat to cut to the basket that defenses had to pay attention to him even if he wasn't going to shoot. That's the template use for his success, work as hard off the ball offensively as he does on defense. And Smart, while still a really bad shooter, can get hot at times which means that he can take a three from time to time, when wide open, he just shouldn't be so shot happy from there. Like Hood, Smart is also in a contract year and has some financial incentive to be better than he has been.

Allen Crabbe, Brooklyn Nets
With Portland, Crabbe played a crucial role in the Blazers offensive when he was on the floor, spacing the floor for Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, courtesy of a .444 shooting percentage from behind the arc. In Brooklyn, Crabbe will be performing a similar task for D'Angelo Russell and Jeremy Lin. However, Russell and Lin are lower usage players than Lillard and McCollum, which should give Crabbe a chance to take even more three than the 3.8 he attempted per game last season. 73 players attemped more threes than Crabbe last season. As a member of the Nets last season, Bojan Bogdanovic attempted 5 threes a game, if Crabbe takes that many or more a game (last season he was at 3.8) and continues to make 40%+ from three, a breakout offensive performance is very possible. Brooklyn took the third most threes last season (more than Golden State believe it or not) and will look to shoot even more this season, a plan that suits Crabbe just fine. The other factor here is that Brooklyn has every incentive to play Crabbe starters minutes, as they just used much of their copious cap space in order to acquire him, and had attempted to get him in the past. More opportunities is often all that it takes for a NBA player to have breakout campaign.

Jerami Grant, Oklahoma City
As of now, the Thunder's backup center is Dakari Johnson, who might not even make the roster. Unless the Thunder find a veteran big man, they'll have to find someone to backup Steven Adams. While a 6-8, 210 pound forward like Jerami Grant might not seem like the prime option, but Grant's defensive potential as someone who can switch and block shots, is actually ideal for playing center in the modern NBA, especially against backup centers who aren't going to kill him in the post. In less advantageous matchups, say against a lumbering post scorer like Jahlil Okafor, Grant would be just as much of a matchup problem because of his ability to make straight line drives and passably shoot from three, skills that will play up as a center. Last season, Grant made .371 of his 144 three-point attempts, something he will look to keep up in his first full year with the Thunder, if not at that level at least at a passable 33-35%, which would be very good if he is playing at center. Likewise, Grant isn't a superb driver but is quick for his size and is a vicious finisher when he gets to the rim. As a backup center, playing with some combination of Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony, Grant will be asked to space the floor, attack closeouts, and finish lobs, all things he has shown the ability to do in the past. Defensively, Grant is one of the elite shot blockers in the NBA, finishing 11th in the NBA in block percentage (The Greek Freak is the only non-center ahead of him) so Grant has part of the big man skills down pat, though he will drastically need to improve as a rebounder in order to make it work at center. His 7.4 defensive rebound would rank second to last season among centers, besting only 35 year old, ground-bound Boris Diaw. Part of that poor number is the amount of time Grant spent playing small forward (and playing with high level rebounders that grabbed the boards instead) but no doubt he must improve to at least league average on the glass, an accomplishment that seems possible given his length and leaping ability. If Grant can stay a solid shooter and top level defender, while also improving his rebounding, a breakthrough to becoming one of the better backups in the NBA is definitely possible.

Norman Powell, Toronto Raptors
The Raptors roster has changed quite a bit over that last year, with players coming and going. Of the top ten per game minute getters last season, half of them are gone and their replacements are mostly unproven players. On the wing, the Raptors have presumed starters DeMar DeRozan and CJ Miles, then injured rookie OG Anunoby, still raw Bruno Caboclo, and multiple time castoff KJ McDaniels. These are the players Norman Powell is competing with for minutes. In fact it can be argued that Powell is the second best wing on the roster, ahead of Miles. Assuming there are 96 minutes available on the wing, DeRozan will take about 36 of them, leaving 60 minutes to be divided up among the rest. Whether it be from 25 to 30 minutes a game, Powell is sure to see a boost in minutes from the 18 a game he averaged last season. And honestly, as far as talent is concerned, playing time may be all that Powell needs to break out. Despite being relatively short for a wing, Powell is strongly built and has long arms to challenge bigger, stronger players defensively. Offensively, his jumper could stand to be more consistent, he is somewhat streaky, but where Powell stands out is his ability to beat defenders off the dribble and make plays going towards the basket. Powell took 41% of his shots withing 0-3 feet of the basket and made an excellent .606% of those shots. Given his ability defensively and a solid outside stroke, Powell should be the first player off the bench in Toronto, if not the starter by season's end.

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Thursday, June 29, 2017

Brooklyn Nets Draft Review

Current Roster
PG: D'Angelo Russell/Isaiah Whitehead/Spencer Dinwiddie/Archie Goodwin
SG: Jeremy Lin/Sean Kilpatrick/Joe Harris
SF: Caris LeVert/Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
PF: Trevor Booker/Quincy Acy/Andrew Nicholson
C: Timofey Mozgov/Jarrett Allen/Justin Hamilton

2017 Free Agents
Unrestricted
F KJ McDaniels
G Randy Foye

Restricted
None

Who They Drafted
1-22 Jarrett Allen, C Texas
2-57 Aleksandar Vezenkov, SF/PF Barcelona
The Nets, who had their pick swapped with the Celtics, lost out on the number one overall pick but did at least salvage their draft by acquiring D'Angelo Russell (who despite what anyone thinks, still has a chance to become a real star) and drafting a player with lottery talent outside the lottery in Texas big man Jarrett Allen. Allen has tremendous length (7-5+ wingspan) and a frame that is already 234 and should grow even more (which will be crucial), he is also a good athlete for his size and has made some particularly impressive athletic plays. On offense, Allen is a particularly effective lob threat and has nice footwork, hands, and touch in the post, though again he must get a stronger anchor in order to post up other big men. Using his athleticism and length, Allen is an excellent finisher at the rim (71%) and though he is raw away from the basket, he has shown some touch from out there. Defensively, Allen, again, needs to get stronger, but his ability to move laterally and length could make him a very good defensive player. Allen is a raw player at this point and landing in Brooklyn, with their excellent development staff and Timofey Mozgov to start ahead of him so he can come along slowly. In the future, the Nets will hope Allen can develop into a pick and roll partner of Russell and anchor for their defense. It may take a couple years, but Allen has immense upside.
Towards the end of the second round, the Nets drafted a popular sleeper who has tremendous European translations and playing for one of the best teams in Europe. Last season for Barcelona Vezenkov shot 41% on 183 three-point attempts, his best weapon as a 6-9 combo forward though he has shown a wide variety of other way around the floor. Vezenkov is not a great athlete, which will put a serious cap of on his defensive potential, which is poor to say the least, but his shooting and offensive acumen are more intruiging than you'd exepect from your average 57th pick, even if he never comes to the NBA.

What They Need Going Forward
The Nets have plenty of cap space and will likely be active in trying to find less expensive veterans that can help them win now and younger, restricted free agents that they can try to steal from other teams, as they did last year. Nikola Mirotic, Joe Ingles, Shabazz Muhammad, Andre Roberson, and Tony Snell are all restricted options they could look at. They can also become a dumping ground for bad contracts, with some nice assets attached of course. The most important thing for the Nets to do is make sure they don't go overboard with long term contracts.

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Friday, June 24, 2016

2016 NBA Draft: Brooklyn Nets Draft Review

Current 2016-17 Roster
PG: Isaiah Whitehead
SG: Bojan Bogdanovic/Caris LeVert/Sean Kilpatrick
SF: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
PF: Chris McCullough
C: Brook Lopez

Free Agents
SG Sergey Karasev
PF Thomas Robinson
C Henry Sims
PG Donald Sloan
PG Shane Larkin (Player Option)
SG Wayne Ellington (Player Option)
PF Willie Reed (Restricted)
SG Markel Brown (Restricted) 

Who They Acquired
20. Caris LeVert, SG Michigan
The Nets traded Thad Young for this pick and took a serious risk in LeVert, who's leg and foot injury history is quite terrifying. When healthy, LeVert is a very talented wing that can really shoot and has played as some point guard in his career. Without injuries LeVert would be a likely lottery pick. However, even if you take away the injuries LeVert isn't a lock to be a hit, he is a bad defender, lacks toughness, and might be a product of Michigan's spread out system (ala Nik Stauskas and Trey Burke). The Nets are taking a huge risk with a rare resource (for them) at a point where they could have gotten a more bankable return. 

42. Isaiah Whitehead, G Seton Hall
The Nets took a solid gamble in the second round with Brooklyn native Whitehead, a talented combo guard that can really shoot with extended range. Despite strength and quickness, Whitehead is a poor inside the arc scorer, shooting 39% from two point range and a terrible 47% at the rim. The question is, can he be a point guard and more than just shooter off the bench that can make some flashy passes?

How They Fit
One of the most appealing aspects of LeVert's jack-of-all-trades skillset is that he easily fits into most every team as a role player because of his ability to shoot, handle the ball, and pass. You could use him as secondary ball-handler alongside a more ball-dominant point point guard or as a co-lead guard with more of a combo guard. Due his shooting ability, LeVert projects to be a dangerous pick-and-roll threat, especially from the wing spot, so playing him with a good screener/roll man would make for a dangerous second unit offense. LeVert's defense is questionable, so I like his pairing with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson on the wing, who is a strong defensive player but poor shooter. LeVert and Hollis-Jefferson compliment each other well. I would also want a good defensive point guard playing with LeVert as well, though it might not be a necessity. 

Whitehead is a shot-creating combo guard with deep shooting range, so in that respect he actually makes sense with LeVert. Getting penetration and using the threat of his jumper to beat his many has never been an issue for Whitehead, but converting inside the arc and specifically at the rim have been a real problem for him. Spacing on a basketball floor doesn't just help players get to the rim, it makes finishing easier, pulling defenders away from the paint so their challenges are fewer and not as tight. Kemba Walker's finishing improved once Charlotte started spreading the floor and Dirk Nowitzki has been making mediocre guards successful with the threat of his jumper in pick-and-pop for years. With that in mind, spreading the floor for Whitehead and giving him a screening partner that can shoot would help him maximize his efficiency, especially considering his shooting ability will not allow teams to go under on his screens.

What They Need Going Forward
Really everything, so in that respect they actually need assets to rebuild their team from the ground up. They have a promising building block in Hollis-Jefferson (who even still barely played last season) but beyond that there really isn't much. Chris McCullough, LeVert, and Whitehead have upside but also serious questions and are a long way to go to become anything. The next step is selling off Brook Lopez and Bojan Bogdanovic for whatever you can get, both are good players, especially Lopez, but they aren't necessarily part of the Nets rebuilding effort and the ultimate iteration of what Brooklyn is building. From that perspective, the Nets need to view any free agents and non-foundational young players as potential trade assets that can bring back draft picks or good, young, cost controlled players. For example, I could see Whitehead showing his flashy game for a year them being flipped in a package over the summer. Brooklyn might see it differently and look to rebuild quicker, but with how dire this team's situation is, a full tear down seems like it will be necessary for Brooklyn to contend.

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Saturday, July 4, 2015

2015 Draft Review: Brooklyn Nets

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Deron Williams/Jarrett Jack/Steve Blake/Shane Larkin
SG: Joe Johnson/Markel Brown
SF: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson/Bojan Bogdanovic/Sergey Karasev/Earl Clark
PF: Thaddeus Young/Thomas Robinson/Chris McCullough
C: Brook Lopez/Cory Jefferson

2015 Free Agents
C Jerome Jordan (RFA)
PF Mirza Teletovic (RFA)
SG Alan Anderson (player option)

What They Did On Draft Night
Traded Mason Plumlee and the 41st pick to Portland for Steve Blake and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
The Nets began their offseason by clearing up their awkward frontcourt, where Mason Plumlee was probably too good to be a backup but couldn't play alongside Brook Lopez. Not long ago, Plumlee was basically untouchable in Brooklyn's eyes, but his value fell both due to a dip in play and a lack longterm role on the team. Despite being a twenty-third pick, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has a really good chance of sticking in the league because he is such am excellent perimeter defender and does so many things well offensively, even if he can't shoot with range. Hollis-Jefferson landed in a perfect spot because Nets coach Lionel Hollins, who coached Tony Allen in Memphis to three All-Defense teams, has experience using great defensive players with limited range. Plus, Hollis-Jefferson is easier to hide offensively than Allen because he can play power forward. Assuming the Nets don't sign another wing, Brooklyn will have a promising young pair of wings that compliment each other well: Hollis-Jefferson and the more offensively-minded Bojan Bogdanovic.

Drafted Syracuse power forward Chris McCullough 29th overall
The Nets, who are picking 29th because Atlanta had the right to swap picks via the Joe Johnson trade, got a lottery talent in Chris McCullough, but also a project coming off an ACL tear. It's not hard to see how McCullough fits in the modern NBA: he's mobile, excellent blocking shots, with an intriguing offensive game. Provided his knee is 100%, McCullough's first job is improving his 199 pound frame (which will be easier when not rehabbing) so he has the strength to be a good on-ball defender to go with help defense. McCullough's best consistent offensive skill is smooth, slippery athletic ability diving to the basket in pick-and-roll but his jumpshot looks very good, it just needs become more consistent. I am surprised the Nets gave McCullough a guaranteed contract via the first round pick because of his knee injury, but if he pans out Brooklyn will have a valuable rotation piece that compliments their current frontcourt well because he can space the floor.

Drafted Argentinian wing Juan Pablo Vaulet 39th overall
A super draft sleeper, Juan Vaulet wasn't on many radars when he elected to remain in the draft, but a closer look at the 19 year-old revealed an athletic, physically gifted wing. Vaulet is most likely a stash, but with a potential shot at making the NBA because he has an NBA frame, long arms, and above-average athletic ability. Vaulet attacks with an excellent first step, and though he is still learning what to do when he beats his man, has shown playmaker potential. Vaulet's next step is improving his jumpshot, tightening his handle, and gaining strength. It might not be for another couple years, but Vaulet could definitely make the NBA.

A bonus trade sure to never happen
Joe Johnson to Chicago for Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, and Kirk Hinrich

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Monday, June 22, 2015

2015 Draft Preview: Brooklyn Nets

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Deron Williams/Jarrett Jack/Darius Morris
SG: Joe Johnson/Markel Brown
SF: Bojan Bogdanovic/Sergey Karasev/Earl Clark
PF: Cory Jefferson
C: Mason Plumlee

2015 Free Agents
C Jerome Jordan (RFA)
PF Mirza Teletovic (RFA)
SG Alan Anderson (player option)
C Brook Lopez (player option)
F Thaddeus Young (early termination clause)

2015 Draft Picks
1-29
2-11(41)

Team Needs
What the Nets need most is a clean slate and a fresh start, which unfortunately are not available in the draft this year. This summer Brooklyn has a lot of decisions to make on essentially their entire frontcourt; besides Thad Young could elect free agency, Brooklyn will have to decide if they are going to re-sign Brook Lopez, Mirza Teletovic, and Jerome Jordan while also reportedly shopping Mason Plumlee. Basically, Brooklyn's big man rotation might look very different next season. Elsewhere, aside from Joe Johnson and Bojan Bogdanovic, the Nets lack much in the way of proven wing players and could use another, more athletic player to compliment Bogdanovic.

Potential Fits
There are several big men that could be available near the bottom of the first round that could turn out as solid depth options for Brooklyn. LSU big men Jordan Mickey and Jarell Martin are projected in this range and offer differing skillset. Mickey is an excellent defender and rebounder, but somewhat limited offensively, while Martin has a better feel offensively, though he lacks any carrying NBA skill. Syracuse's Rakeem Christmas is similar to Mickey, just a little bit bigger and a couple years older. His teammate for the Orange, Chris McCullough is more of a project as he recovers from a knee injury and develops his body, but also has a lot more upside than Mickey, Martin, or Christmas because of his jumpshot. Another player with a little more upside, mostly due to his age, is Kansas' Cliff Alexander. Alexander has an NBA body and should be a good defender but is a little bit behind as an offensive player.

Mock Draft
29. Jordan Mickey, PF, LSU
41. Olivier Hanlan, G, Boston College

Friday, July 4, 2014

10 Things To Watch At The Orlando Summer League

1. Where does Marcus Smart look most comfortable?
The Celtics drafted Marcus Smart into a situation with a well paid veteran point guard (Rajon Rondo) and shooting guard (Avery Bradley), so there is some question as to where he will play. Before coming to Oklahoma State, Smart was a two guard, but in college he played the point. With James Young and Phil Pressey both on the summer league roster, Smart will have an opportunity to play both, so it will be interesting if he looks more comfortable off the ball or if point guard is truly his future position. With Bradley just signed to a big, long term contract, it seems most likely that Rondo will be the one either traded or let walk when his contract expires next summer. Either way, there will be pressure on Smart to be the point guard of the future. Summer league isn't the best place for point guards to shine, but if he can run some semblance of an offense, it will be a good sign.

2. Can James Young translate his talent onto the court?
There is an expression in baseball scouting that a player who has demonstrated a multitude of present or future skills is a "toolbox." In a basketball sense, Young is a toolbox. At various times he looks like he can shoot the ball from the outside, make plays for himself and others off the dribble, finish with authority, and be a lockdown defender. However, all too often those skills are sabotaged by the cerebral aspect of the game, where Young struggles. Whether it be shooting from 3-point range too often, playing out of control, misreading situations, or making mental mistakes defensively like forgetting assignments and rotations. There are some mitigating circumstances, particularly the unique situation at Kentucky with many young alpha dogs playing together for the first time. Also, he is only 18 years old. Young could have a bright future if his on-court IQ catches up to his physical abilities and skills, but if not he may just be another young talent who never reaches their potential.

3. Do Any of Brooklyn's second rounders step up?
The Nets have a roster packed with heavy contract guys, so if they can get their hands on an inexpensive young contributor or two, it will be a major boon to both their roster and their cap situation. In the 2014 draft, the Nets acquired 3 second round picks and with them drafted two shooting guards, Markel Brown and Xavier Thames, as well as power forward Cory Jefferson. If even one of these prospects becomes a contributor, even as the last man on Brooklyn's bench, it will help the Nets bloated roster gain some semblance of stability. All 3 are good, not great shooters, and have both pluses and minus to their games. Brown is undersized and lacks polished offensive skills, though he is a special athlete. Thames on the other hand, isn't overly athletic, and is also undersized, however he is a good ball handler and has a non-zero chance of becoming a point guard with work. Like Brown, Jefferson is very athletic and can shoot, but isn't a finished product offensively. He is good on the glass and can be a very good rim protector, but is also a late bloomer who hasn't sustained a high level of success for long stretches. Summer league is the first steps for these 3 as they try to prove they belong in the NBA.

4. Can Solomon Hill turn into anything?
Last season the Pacers reached for Solomon Hill, a fringe prospect, in the first round of the draft, and he really failed to impress, posting a very uninspiring 7.62 PER in just 28 game and 8.1 minutes for game. For a college senior close to his ceiling and supposedly ready to contribute, Hill didn't look like he could bring much of anything to the table. This year, the Pacers summer league roster consists of mostly castoffs and journeymen, with Hill clearly the only player with much of a chance to make an impact on the Pacers. Because of this, Hill will likely be featured by the Pacers coaching staff and given every chance to showcase his abilities. Can he show the versatility on both ends of the court that led the Pacers to draft him? Or will he look as lost, unathletic, and unskilled as he did at times during his rookie year. 

5. How do Jordan Adams and Jarnell Stokes handle athletes?
In round one of old vs. new school scouting, we have analytical darlings Jordan Adams and Jarnell Stokes looking to take the first step towards proving that basketball skill and production is more important that physical tools. Neither Stokes nor Adams is particularly impressive athletically, Stokes tested well but plays below the rim while Adams was a disaster at the NBA combine and never looked like an above-average athlete on the court. Both however, were very productive during their time in college, posting big, efficient, numbers scoring the ball, rebounding (relative to position), and even in the case of Adams, high steal totals, all of which are solid indicators of success at the next level. Neither Adams or Stokes were non-prospects, and I think most would agree that they deserves to be drafted, but Adams in particular was surprising with where he was drafted. Hopefully they have successful careers and strike a blow for skill and production over "athletic upside."

6. Is there anyone who can help the Heat?
In a minute, in a day, the Miami situation could change drasitcally depending on what the Big 3 do. If they do all re-sign, the Heat will be in a tight financially situation, which means any kind of bargain player who can help will be a huge benefit. Last year's second rounder James Ennis is intriguing because he is a tough defender and has shown the ability to shoot from the outside, consistency and improvement there would make him an intriguing James Jones replacement. Another interesting prospect is former Duke guard Andre Dawkins, who shot 42% from 3 last year and has a long-track record as a shooter. Former UCLA standout Tyler Honeycutt has always been a jack of all trades on both ends of the court, a gifted passer and ball handler despite being 6-8. The real question was his shooting, but he made 36% of his 3 last season playing in Israel. Towson forward Jarrelle Benimon isn't super skilled athletically, but he plays very hard and eats up rebounds. It is along shot for any of these players to make the Heat, but there is always a chance, which is why the summer league exists.

7. Do any of the Thunder's young players take a step forward?
The Thunder have a stacked roster yet again, featuring multiple first round picks including Steven Adams, Josh Huestis, Perry Jones, Jeremy Lamb, Mitch McGary and Andre Roberson, as well as second rounders Grant Jerrett and Semaj Christon. All are very talented and could play key roles for the Thunder off the bench. Each however, also have areas in need of improvement. Wing defense specialists Huestis and Roberson meet to develop offense to help them stay on the court. Lamb and Jones have all the talent in the world but need to be more consistent. Is McGary recovered and back to normal after his back injury? Will Steven Adams take a step forward from awkward but effective defensive player to legitimate starting center? Jarrett can shoot but he needs to do more than that to earn playing time. Christon is raw and can play wild, but has Eric Bledsoe-like athleticism and motor for a guard.

8. The Orlando's young trio score consistently?
In the last two drafts, Orlando has used 3 lottery picks on some of the best defensive players in those respective classes. Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, and Elfrid Payton all have the potential to be some of the best defensive players at their respective positions down the road. The question is, do they begin to take steps forward on offense? Payton is probably the best in that respect because of his ability to get to the rim, finish, and draw fouls, but his struggles shooting the ball mean he will be working uphill until he can improve in that area. Oladipo and Gordon score off of their energy, but neither are consistent shooters with go-to offensive moves. Oladipo can really get to the rim, but he plays very out of control and gets his shot blocked a lot. Gordon on the other hand, is an awesome finisher, but he needs to improve his footwork in the post and rework a jumpshot that can look pretty ugly at times. All three have bright futures, but the gap between valuable player and star is getting it done on both ends of the court.

9. How does Nerlens Noel look after 17 months off the court?
February 12, 2013 Nerlens Noel tore his ACL and was out for the rest of the season. Since then he has all but disappeared save for a brief appearance when he was drafted by the Sixers, not appearing in a single game for the Sixers. This summer, however, Noel will make his pro debut. Obviously, there is a good chance that he will be rusty, however that really isn't the biggest issue. What Noel needs to show is that he is healthy and fully recovered, able to move side-to-side and vertically like he did before the injury. Noel's ability to guard on the perimeter, high motor, disruptive hands, and elite rim protection skills have drawn comparisons to Joakim Noah. Noel wasn't to play like Noah, but needs to be able to move fluidly to accomplish that level of defensive impact. For all intents and purposes, Noel is basically the Sixers first round pick this year, with Joel Embiid and Dario Saric unlikely to play in the NBA next season, so there will be some unfair pressure on him to perform at a high level. This summer will be a big step forward to see if Noel, rightly or wrongly, will "disappoint" this season.

10. Do any UDFA's make teams look foolish?
Many, many draft prospects weren't drafted this year, but luckily for them they will get a chance to show what they can do in the Summer League. Some of the most notable are Tarik Black, Jahii Carson, Jabari Brown, Joe Jackson, Scottie Wilbekin, Fuquan Edwin, Aaron Craft, Melvin Ejim. Point guards like Carson, JAckson, Wilbekin, and Craft will look to show balance and control of an offense. Wing players such as Brown and Edwin will try to light up the scoreboard and shut down the man in front of them, while Ejim will look to show he isn't a tweener and Black has to defend without fouling and show a higher skill level than he did at Kansas. Odds are, none of these players will ever have a significant career in the NBA, but every once in a while one slips through the cracks of the draft and there isn't any reason why one of these couldn't end up making it on a big team roster. All have talent, from this point it is hard work and a little luck.

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Friday, February 21, 2014

NBA Trade Deadline Deals Reviews

Nets receive SG Marcus Thornton
Kings receive SG Jason Terry and PF Reggie Evans
The Nets continue to show a willingness to take on money in an attempt to become a relevant playoff team during their ever-so-brief window of "contention" before Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett retire. Both Thornton and Terry have been equally bad this season, putting truly awful TS% while providing nothing on defense. Still, Thornton represents an upgrade for the Nets for the simple reason that he is 9 years younger and has a better chance at bouncing back to being at least a league average bench scorer. For the Kings, the deal saves them some money while clearing playing time for Ben McLemore, who should have been playing over Thornton in the first place. Thornton's playing style and contract is a remnant of the old Kings and doesn't fit with their new image. As for Terry and Evans, both are potential buyout candidates this year or next and (hopefully) won't be seeing much on court action for Sacramento.

Warriors receive PG Steve Blake
Lakers receive G Kent Bazemore and SG MarShon Brooks
The Warriors haven't lived up to the hype so far this season and oddly enough, their offense is the biggest issue: defensively they are top 5, but outside the top 10 on offense. Part of the reason for the struggles is their bench, which has been terrible, especially their backup point guard spot. Toney Douglas, Bazemore, and Jordan Crawford have all been given a chance and haven't been successful. Blake is a instant upgrade, though there are flaws, he can play both guard spots, shoots the ball well, run an offense, and play passable defense. He isn't a perpetrator and struggles inside the arc, but again, it's more who is replacing that makes the difference and as an expiring deal, the risk is minimal. The Lakers weren't likely to bring Blake back, and save money this year by trading him. Brooks is all offense and Bazemore is all defense, both could find some success playing for Mike d'Antoni towards the end of the season, however neither are part of the teams long team plans and this deals was all about saving money.

Cavaliers receive C Spencer Hawes
Sixers receive C Henry Sims, F Earl Clark and two 2nd round picks
Well at least you can't say they didn't try. The Cavaliers, despite having a 5.2 percent chance to make the playoffs*, are going hard to earn the right to be swept by the Pacers or the Heat. Hawes is a definite upgrade for their offense, shooting 39.9% from 3-point range and should help to space the floor for Kyrie Irving and work well in pick-and-pop. Defensively, Hawes is about average, probably an upgrade over Tyler Zeller but not as good Anderson Varejao on that end. Hawes is a free agent, but it's hard to imagine they would trade for him just to let him walk after 27 games; committing long-term money to Hawes would only compound the issues in Cleveland. Hawes makes Cleveland better this season, but in the long run could be hurting them. Look at it this way: if the season ended today, Cleveland would have the 9th best chance to win the lottery and would very likely have a top-10 pick in an excellent draft, if they make the playoffs that drops them down to 15th, significantly lower their odds of getting a impact player and becoming more than just cannon-fodder for the top teams in the East playoffs. That doesn't even mention the second round picks, which provide a chance, however slight, to find a very cheap, impact talent. Some of the best contracts in the NBA are second round picks.
In Philadelphia, this trade is about making their team worse in the short term, while also pick up some second round picks to look for impact players on cheap contracts. Neither Sims nor Clark are guaranteed beyond this year and Clark has already been waived, with Sims possibly to follow during the summer. The Sixers are gunning for the top pick in the draft, and planning to pair that pick with the Pelicans lottery pick, Michael Carter-Williams, Nerlens Noel, and Thad Young and you've got a very young, very talented core of players. Who knows if it will all work out, but the Sixers are giving themselves the best chance to turn their franchise around.
*Via John Hollinger's Playoff Odds

Heat receive a highly protected 2nd round pick
Kings receive G Roger Mason and cash
The point of this deal is to create a roster spot for any potential buyout candidates or waived veterans to boost the Heats bench for a playoff run. The pick is so heavily protected that it will likely never get conveyed and the money is simply that, money.

Wizards receive PG Andre Miller and a highly protected 2nd round pick
Sixers receives PG Eric Maynor and two 2nd round picks
Nuggets receives Jan Vesely
The Wizards are usually criticized for their moves, but this one was actually very shrewd for what it was. Not to be overlooked is the fact that Vesely (the #6 pick) was a big time bust and Eric Maynor (the team's big free agent signing this summer) was terrible, so Ernie Grunfeld shouldn't be congratulated too much for cleaning up his own mess yet again. However, they did well to address their weakest spot, backup guard, with a seasoned, experienced veteran who can at least help keep the offense afloat when John Wall goes to the bench. Washington gave up very little, the aforementioned Maynor and the Pelicans second round pick they got in the Emeka Okafor trade. The pick they are getting back in return is likely top-55
The Nuggets gave up Memphis' second rounder and Miller, who had clashed with Brian Shaw and wasn't in the rotation anymore, to get Vesely, who will at least have a chance to live up to his potential in Denver's uptempo offense. Vesely has been mostly terrible but for the price of a mid-second round pick and a player rotting on the end of the bench, it is a least a chance worth taking.
The Sixers are apparently want to have the entire second round to themselves, it is a good plan because second round picks are cheap and non-guaranteed, so if you find an impact player there they become very valuable, but there is also no risk. The more second rounders you have, the more you are increasing the amount of opportunities you have to find one of those gems.

Bobcats receive G Gary Neal and PG Luke Ridnour
Bucks receive PG Ramon Sessions and PF Jeff Adrien
The Bobcats, like the Cavaliers, are going for it trying to get in the playoffs, they are currently positions in the number 8 slot and have an 82% chance of making the playoffs* and are only a couple of games in the loss column out of the 6th seed, which would give them a chance to win a round in the playoffs by missing Indiana and Miami in the first round. This deal should help them reach that goal, Neal and Ridnour should shore up the backcourt depth, giving them a shooter in Neal and a steady ball handler with Ridnour. It is questionable whether making the playoffs is the best thing for Charlotte's long term future, but since they're already likely to make the playoffs, they might as well make the most of it. Also, the Bobcats didn't give up any real assets or take on any big contracts, so this deal doesn't hurt them too much in any respect.
The Bucks, owners of the league's worst record, save themselves some money with this deal in the short team, as well as shedding Neal's salary next year. Sessions could get bought out and Adrien is just an end of the bench guy without a guaranteed deal. It is disappointing that they couldn't get a pick, but at least they saved some money and got worse in a tanking effort.

Rockets receive Jordan Hamilton
Nuggets receive Aaron Brooks
With Andre Miller in the doghouse, then traded, and Ty Lawson injured, the Nuggets were in desperate need for help at point guard, so this deal makes sense in that respect. However, their choice of point guard leaves a lot to be desired, Brooks hasn't posted a PER above league average since 2010 and is terrible on defense. If they hadn't given up a ton to get him, it wouldn't matter but Jordan Hamilton is a young wing with a lot of potential on both ends of the court, you'd think they would be able to get more for him than Brooks.
For the Rockets, Brooks was the fifth guard when everyone was healthy and not providing much. Hamilton is another wing to add into their mix, he has the size to play either forward spot and is a .357 career 3-point shooter, something the Rockets covet. This trade probably won't move the needle much for either team, but if Hamilton turns into anything, the Nuggets may look back at this in regret.

Pacers receive G/F Evan Turner and F/C Lavoy Allen
Sixers receive SF Danny Granger, a second round pick
The biggest names moved at the deadline ended up coming towards the tail end of the day after many had assumed the day was over. All involved here are free agents so this is a straight swap of talent. At his peak, Granger was one of the best players in the league, but injuries have really taken their toll and at least for this year he has been a below replacement level player. Apparently the Pacers agreed and believe that they have a better chance of winning with Turner, who is having his best season, albeit on one of the worst teams in the league. Turner is not a good 3-point shooter and has actually regressed in that area this year; instead his strength is creating off the dribble and making plays for himself and others. The Pacers are hoping that he can sustain their bench offense, a task I am not sure he is up to. Turner makes them better, the question is how much? With Lance Stephenson needing a new contract soon, along with Paul George, and Roy Hibbert, the Pacers aren't likely to re-sign Turner, so this is a straight rental. I wouldn't sleep on Allen either, despite the fact that he is just flotsam to make the deal work, he is a decent defender and mid-range shooter, a nice depth piece.
The Sixers get Golden State's 2015 second round pick and Granger, who may never suit up for them. They can either buy him out or wait until the offseason in an attempt to sign-and-trade him for some kind of asset. The former option is the most interesting for right now because Granger could latch on to a contender and swing a playoff series if he get healthy and right. Buying him out would also save the Sixers some money in the short term, which is likely why they would do it.

Spurs receive Austin Daye
Raptors receive Nando de Colo
This may just seem like a swap of bench warmers, but both de Colo and Daye have some intriguing upside and could help their teams down the stretch. Daye is a perpetual tease, flashing shooting ability and guard skills at 6-11, yet never becoming a efficient scorer or a good defender, despite solid shot blocking numbers. If any team can figure out how to use him, it's the Spurs. I wouldn't hold my breath but anything is possible.
de Colo fell out of favor in San Antonio with Patty Mills and Cory Joseph taking his minutes, he can play both guard spots and doesn't do anything flashy but is solid all around. Depth is important in the playoffs and the Raptors, believe it or not is staring down the barrel of the number 3 seed.

Hawks receive Antwan Jamison
Clippers receive the draft rights to Cenk Akyol
This trade is simply a way for the Clippers to save a little money and give the Hawks a depth piece to help with their injury ravaged team. Akyol isn't a prospect anymore, his draft rights are basically a way for the Clippers to give Jamison away for free.

Sixers receive Byron Mullens and a 2nd round pick
Clippers receive a conditional 2nd round pick
If you couldn't tell the Sixers were tanking before, trading for Byron Mullens seals it. There is no better way to lose games than throwing Mullens out there to jack 3s. The pick they receive is the more valuable piece, the price for taking on Mullens and his salary. The pick they are sending back is highly protected and likely will never be conveyed. This deal, along with the Antwan Jamison deal create roster space for any buyout or waived players they could add to their roster for the playoff run. I would expect them to go after a big man especially, even the newly bought out Glen Davis.

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Thursday, October 31, 2013

Hot and Slow Starts

Because it is the beginning of the season, every little thing will be blown out of proportion by fans and unfortunately some media members as well. It isn't wise to take to much out of the beginning of the season, but it's also a bad idea to completely disregard everything you see...

Three teams that are expected to compete for a title got off to slow starts in their first game, with the Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, and Los Angeles Clippers all lost their opening games. However, there isn't any reason for these teams to panic, as each one is incorporating new elements into their rotations. The Nets have five new rotation players while the Bulls and Clippers have three a piece, plus Brooklyn and L.A. have new coaches. Chicago struggled during the second quarter in which they were out scored by the Heat by 19, in large part because Jimmy Butler and Luol Deng got in foul trouble and new Bulls Mike Dunleavy and Tony Snell weren't quite on point with their rotations, particularly to the corners. Also Derrick Rose was clearly a little rusty, neither of these issues should last. The Nets on the other hand were tentative offensively, still figuring out how to play together together on that end. The absence of key reserve Andrei Kirilenko didn't help either. For the Clippers, there are signs that are a little more concerning but not dire, they were killed on the boards, including 18 offensive rebounds, and looked lackadaisical at times on both ends. Also, they were beaten by a Lakers team that was lost to Golden State by 31 the next night. However, I would be very surprised if they don't make a move for a big before the playoffs (Emeka Okafor when healthy?) and Doc Rivers should be able to instill some discipline in his young team. Bottom line is these are all very good teams and I see no reason why they shouldn't end up in the top 4 seeds in their respective conferences.

It was great to see the Kings still in Sacramento, with rowdy fans showing up en-masse to support their team on their way to an opening night win, thanks in large part to DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins registered 30 points (13-26 from the field, 4-7 from the line) 14 rebounds, a pair of steals and blocks, and an assist. Cousins has put up big numbers before, but he has rarely looked this good, showing off the whole repertoire on the block with hooks, drives, turnaround bank-shots, and one thunderous throwdown off his own miss. More importantly, he cut out bad jump shots, only shooting when he was wide open, and going 2-of-4 in that case. Perhaps most impressively, he played 39 minutes and still (mostly) brought effort on both ends. Cousins is supremely talented and if he can continue to play this way, Sacramento will be going in the right direction. I think it really helps having Greivis Vasquez playing alongside him. Vasquez played great and fit really well on the team, especially playing alongside Isaiah Thomas, the two combined for 33 points (on 11-18 from the field, 7-9 from the line, 4-6 from deep), and 9 assists to 4 turnovers, but most importantly they played good team basketball. Unfortunately, Marcus Thornton still had the blinders on and jacked up terrible shots, which was the norm in Sacramento in previous seasons, but really stood out against when, at least for one night, the Kings looked like a different team. Also, while he struggled offensively, I liked the way the Ben McLemore competed on the defensive end, which was an issue for him at Kansas. Once he is able to get going on offense, I would expect McLemore to move into the starting lineup with Thornton in a more logical bench role.

Michael Carter-Williams had a tremendous debut in the 76ers victory over the Heat, scoring 22 points (6-10 FG, 4-6 three point, 6-8 FT) with 7 rebounds, 12 assists, 1 turnover, and 9 steals. The boards, assists, and steals shouldn't be too big of a surprise (though nine is a lot, obviously), at 6-6 he can really see the floor and make things happen on defense. However, the offense and lack of turnovers are huge, if he can keep protecting the ball and continue to score somewhat efficiently, the future is very bright, because the rest of his game is there. 

The Detroit Pistons are going to make things very difficult for teams in the paint when they play Andre Drummond, Josh Smith, and Greg Monroe together. If they can keep a consistent offense and not foul too much, their defense could be really disruptive. 

Like the Bulls, Nets, and Clippers, the Pelicans are incorporating a lot of new pieces and while the talent and potential is evident, they need to work on their consistency and figure out how the 3 guard lineups are going to be working together. 

The Pacers, who beat New Orleans, who got big bench contributions in their first game, only mustered 10 points of the pine in this game, which will be something to monitor throughout the season, because the bench will be crucial for them in the playoffs after killing them last year. If Danny Granger returns to form, moving Lance Stephenson to the bench should help a lot.

The Thunder scored 101 points, but they only had 9 assists, including only one by Kevin Durant, who was really passing well in the pre-season. This offense is really going to struggle if they don't move the ball more. Russell Westbrook's return will help this immensely, but he is still out for a couple weeks. I would like to see Durant create a little more for his teammates, because without Westbrook they are really lacking ball movers. Note: shooting 33 free throws doesn't help assist totals, but the point still remains.

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