2017 NBA Draft: Breaking Down De'Aaron Fox

De'Aaron Fox, Point Guard, Kentucky 

Height: 6-3 Weight: 187 Age: 19

De'Aaron Fox has managed to be a high level impact player despite performing quite poorly from an efficiency standpoint, including a well below average .452 eFG% and a .513 TS% For example, his TS% would be 39th of qualified point guards in the NBA, just behind Ricky Rubio.

The root of Fox's ineffiency comes from the fact that he has proved almost completely ineffective as a shooter. Fox is just not a threat from three-point range (.153% on 26 attempts) nor does he have much more success on two point jumpers (.291% on 55 attempts). At the college level, defenses are unsophisticated and frankly, frequently just poorly coached. For example, against North Carolina, Fox's defender consistently fought through the screens set for Fox instead of going under them, despite that he is little threat shooting the ball. Until Fox can prove he can shoot when left open, NBA defenses will give him open shots and go under screens against him, seriously hindering his ability to gain an advantage driving to the rim. Fox's jumper isn't terrible looking, but it just does t go in and hasn't throughout his young career in college and high school.

Fox is very quick and athletic, so he can still get to the rim, even without that advantage at the college level. Fox has taken nearly half his shots at the rim. Once he gets there, Fox is a good finisher (.658%) but needs to improve in contested situations, where his lack of strength and so-so touch can occasionally become issues, weaknesses that will only be exacerbated in the NBA when defenders become stronger, longer, and more athletic. It should be said that this iteration of Kentucky is very shooting-light, featuring only two players shooting better than 35% from three, so Fox isn't being given much room to operate, something that should improve in the NBA. 

It is all the other areas that Fox really excels, he is a tremendous passer with a good handle, creativity and vision. He is excellent in transition, pushing the ball with both the dribble and the pass and has extensive experience running pick-and-roll and generally makes the correct decisions. 

Defensively, Fox has a chance to be special (provided his lack of strength doesn't prove to much of a hinderance) he has tremendous lateral agility, great defensive instincts and quick, disruptive hands to create deflections and steals. What is most impressive about Fox is how hard he competes on a play-to-play basis, which shows in his defensive tenacity, transition ability, and contributions on the glass (8.1 rebound rate).

Even if his ability to shoot and score efficiently never improves to an above-average rate, Fox's passing, defense, motor, and intelligence should allow him to stick in the league, ironically in a similar way that Ricky Rubio has succeeded and been a positive contributor in the NBA.

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2017 NBA Draft: Breaking Down Lonzo Ball

Lonzo Ball, UCLA 

Height: 6-6 Weight: 190 Age: 19

Statistically, Ball has been one of the most efficient players in college basketball, posting a .664 TS% and .659 eFG%, both elite numbers for a point guard. This is even more impressive when you consider that he neither gets fouled a ton (4.4 FTA/100 possessions) nor does he convert said free throws at a high rate (.658%). Ball's efficiency is built almost completely on his ability to score from the field, taking and making a high number of threes per game (7.7 per 100) while also scoring absurdly effienctly from two point range (.673%). His two point shooting is almost all based at the rim, as 2-point jumpers make up a paltry 6% of his shot taking.

However, here lies some of the concern for Ball, who clearly benefits from the elite offensive talent around him; for example UCLA has five players averaging heavy minutes shooting over 39% from three, which certainly contributes to Ball shooting .726% at the rim as elite spacing provides much easier opportunities at the basket, especially when you factor in Ball's passing ability requires opponents to stay at home on shooters. Additionally, Ball isn't an great one-foot leaper, which makes finish contested shoots at the rim more difficult. Unless Ball is drafted into the perfect situation in the NBA, he won't be nearly as effective at the rim, which is a large part of why he has been so effienctly so far in college. What about the other half of his offensive efficiency? Ball's three-point shooting is also some what questionable, and not just because his jumper makes Kevin Martin's shot look textbook. What isconcerning is that Ball's three pointers are being assisted on .793% of the time, that means that only 1/5 of his jumpers are created on his own. Ball likes to pull up in transition, which is one way he creates open threes, but overall Ball's awkward release makes shooting off the dribble, particularly when defends go under screens, difficult. Overall, his shot is easier to challenge than most so when the spacing UCLA has most likely disappears at the next level, he could see his open shots drop because of the margin for error lessening. 

Overall, Ball will most likely be more of an opportunistic scorer in the NBA, scoring in transition and using the threat of his passing to create open looks instead of the high efficiency player offensive player that his college stats might suggest.

Ball shines in his ability to affect the game in multiple ways with scoring. At 6-6, he has the size and defensive versatility to guard multiple positions and though his athletic tools will likely hold him back from being a lock down defender against an position, that versatility is a valueable commodity in today's NBA. Ball is active defensively, particularly off the ball, and has a inherent ability to be disruptive in passing lanes with quick hands and tremendous instincts. He also uses his size well as a deterrent to shooters, averaging 1.4 blocks per 100. He may never be a shutdown defender, but Ball has the versatility and disruptive ability to be an overall plus on that end

Though he is point guard, Ball is also excellent off the ball, adept at cutting and finding open spaces to receive the ball. Despite the awkwardness of his jumper, Ball is still effective shooting when he is open, which is crucial when playing without the ball.

As a passer, Ball is obviously quite gifted, especially in transition when pushing the ball with his eyes up searching for the open man. While he isn't the quickest player, Ball is deadly when breaking down the defense because of his vision, instincts, and IQ. However, there is some question as to how easily he will be able to penetrate without UCLA excellent spacing and whether he can be able to break down defenders off the dribble when the floor closes up in the halfcourt. 

UCLA, which has four excellent guards, doesn't always need Ball to be a dominant creator and can attack matchups accordingly. Workouts will be key to show whether or not Ball can be counted on to break down defenses at a high enough level to utilize his vision and passing in the halfcourt. He might benefit playing with another creator, for instance Boston could be drafting in the range where Ball would likely be selected and he could play as a co-creator role with Isaiah Thomas but without being asked to be the one and only creator on the floor.

Though there are some questions about his jumper and ability to get into the lane, Ball is still an excellent prospect because of his high level of intelligence and the way he can affect the game not with and without the ball. 

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NBA Draft: Mitch McGary Scouting Report

Measurements
Age: 21; Height: 6-10; Weight: 255; Wingspan: 6-11.5; Reach: 8-11.5

Season Stats (as of 2/23)
24.6 mpg, 9.5 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.9 spg, 0.8 bpg, 1.6 tpg, 3.1 fpg, .545 FG, .667 FT, N/A 3P

Strengths
-Prototypical height/weight for a power forward
-Strong, particularly in the upper body
-Good athlete, gets off the ground fast
-Quick and fairly fluid for a big guy
-Runs the floor well
-Great hands
-Decent mid-range shooter
-Makings of a post game
-Finishes well in a variety of ways
-Good ball handler
-Comfortable distributing
-High energy defensive player
-Good help defender, shot blocker
-Creates turnovers
-Excellent rebounder, particularly offensively
-Physical
-Plays very hard on both ends

Weaknesses
-Average length
-A good athlete, but not a special one
-Lacks polish overall on offense
-Not a great free throw shooter
-Just an average shot blocker
-Foul prone
-Short track record of success
-History of conditioning issues
-Had a season ending back injury
-Made rep against younger players in high school
-Old for a Sophomore, 22 on draft night

NBA Comparison
During McGary's NCAA Tournament, they hype on him got somewhat out of hand. However, if he can recover from his back injury I can see him easily developing into a valuable forward like Nick Collison, who rebounds, passes, plays great defense, and can hit an occasional jumper.

Draft Projection
The severity of the back injury is the biggest question mark on his draft standing. If healthy, I could see him going any where in the back half of the first round. However, with such a question hanging over his head it's hard to see him going as high as Jared Sullinger (21) because he is older, not as good, and in a deeper draft than Sullinger.

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NBA Draft: Kyle Anderson Scouting Report

Measurements

Age: 20; Height: 6-9; Weight: 230; Wingspan: 7-2; Reach: 9-0

Season Stats (as of 2/19)

33.0 mpg, 15.5 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 6.8 apg, 1.6 spg, 0.8 bpg, 3.2 tpg, 1.6 fpg, .502 FG, .742 FT, .524 3P

Strengths

-Outstanding length/reach

-Great size if he is a 3

-Very fluid, great body control, moves very well

-Crafty below-the-rim finisher

-Can penetrate off the dribble

-Much improved shooter from 3-point range

-Great mid-range game

-Legitimate point guard skills

-Excellent ball handler

-Top level court vision

-Outstanding passer

-Above-average rebounder

-Length an asset on D

-Unselfish

-Can play multiple positions offensively

-Made a big jump from years 1 to 2

Weaknesses

-Not a great athlete

-Plays mostly below the rim

-Not very quick

-Suspect lateral movement

-Could struggle on D

-Unknown how well his game will translate

-Can he win off the dribble in the NBA?

-Needs to get stronger

-Questions about position on defense

-Not a fit for every team

-May require some creative scheming

-Slow release on jumper 

-Short track record of high efficiency shooting

NBA Comparison

Anderson defies both NBA positions and NBA comparisons; he has the build and shooting ability of former second rounder pick Justin Harper (currently playing in Israel), but with the legitimate point guard skills at that size, similar to former Rocket and Sixer Royce White, though presumably without the baggage.

Draft Projection

Teams could view Anderson as a point guard, a power forward, or anything in between. Where he plays will likely be determined by who he can guard defensively. Additionally, Anderson's not a fit for every offense and will take a GM and coach who have a plan for how to use him on both ends of the court. I could see him going anywhere from the late lottery to the second round, with the most likely landing spot somewhere in the middle

Highlights

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NBA Draft: Jerami Grant Scouting Report

Measurements

Age: 19; Height: 6-8; Weight: 215; Wingspan: 7-2.5; Reach: 9-0.5

Season Stats (as of 2/18)

31.9 mpg, 12.5 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.7 bpg, 1.1 tpg, 2.3 fpg, .481 FG, N/A 3P, .688 FT

Strengths 
-Terrific combination of size, wingspan, and reach
-Could be closer to 6-9
-Top level athlete
-Very explosive, quick, and fast
-Extremely mobile, covers a lot of ground quickly
-Great body control for size
-Excels attacking off the dribble, drawing fouls
-Improving ball handler
-Flashes of court vision
-Can finish above the rim and through contact
-Potential developing jumpshot with range
-Excellent in transition
-Blocks shots, challenges shooters, plays passing lanes
-Tools to be elite defender who can guard multiple positions
-Good rebounder, particularly offensively
-Very high motor
-Consistently improving
-Very high upside on both ends

Weaknesses
-Uncertain position
-May be undersized at the 4
-Needs to get stronger
-Overall offensive polish
-Jumpshot consistency
-Streaky foul shooter
-Needs to tighten up ball handling
-Lacks a true low-post game
-Currently plays in a zone defense
-Low floor offensively 

NBA Comparison

Shawn Marion is an all-time great defensive player, so it would be foolish to say Grant is like him, but there is potential to become a similar type of defender who capable of guarding both guards and forwards as well as blocking shots and rebounding. Marion also took time to grow into an offensive threat and make jumpshots consistently, which will likely be the case for Grant as well. The potential is all there, though it is highly unlikely he ever averages 20 points a game like Marion did at points in his career. 

Draft Projection
A lot may depend on how he measures out, if he can come in at 6-9, teams may look at him at either forward position which will help his standing. Grant has high upside and may appeal to teams looking for potential high impact but don't have a top ten pick. He is also a project so I would expect that he ends up being drafted somewhere between picks 10 and 20.

Highlights

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NBA Draft: Adreian Payne Scouting Report

Measurements

Age: 23; Height: 6-10; Weight: 245; Wingspan: 7-4

Season Stats (as of 2/17)

28.6 mpg, 16.3 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.9 bpg, 1.9 tpg, 2.7 fpg, .526 FG, .790 FT, .431 3P

Strengths

-Prototypical height/weight/length/athleticism

-Explosive leaper, even from a standstill

-Runs the floor well

-Quick, mobile

-Great hands on lobs, on the move

-Strong, high efficiency finisher

-Solid post game

-Much improved jump shooter

-3-point range

-Pick-and-roll/pop threat

-Good foul shooter

-Very good defender

-Length and athleticism are very disruptive

-Gives great effort, particularly on D

-Solid rebounder, tools to be better

-High floor, great role player potential

Weaknesses

-Needs to better redistribute weight/strength

-Can be a little robotic

-Slowish release on jumper

-Turnover prone

-Questionable feel on offense

-Underwhelming rebounding/shot blocking totals

-Should be better on the glass

-Capped upside due to age

-Struggled with injuries in 2014

NBA Comparison

There aren't a lot of long, athletic big men with top defensive chops that are also excellent shooters, but Serge Ibaka fits the bill. Payne isn't likely going to be that level of a player because he isn't as good defenively as Ibaka, but he could still be a very valuable player. Another difference between the two? Ibaka, 5 years into his NBA career, is just 17 months older than Payne.

Draft Projection

If he had this skillset as a 18-20 year old, he would be a top 10 pick at least, but at 23 Payne is much more likely to fit in from 15-25 in the first round. His shooting/defense combination will interest teams looking to stretch 4 and defensive big man. Payne has big time role player potential and should stick around for a long time if he continues to shoot 35-40% on 3s.

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NBA Draft: Clint Capela Scouting Report

Measurements

Age: 19; Height: 6-10.5; Weight: 211; Wingspan: 7-3.5; Reach: 9-2.5

Season Stats (as of 2/17)*

18.2 mpg, 7.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.2 apg, 0.6 spg, 2.0 bpg, 1.3 tpg, 2.0 fpg, .659 FG, .500 FT, N/A 3P

Strengths

-Terrific frame

-A lot of growth potential

-Top level wingspan and reach

-Good athlete

-Runs the floor well

-Fluid, mobile, and quick

-Good hands

-Outstanding finisher around the rim

-Potential pick-and-roll threat

-Excellent rebounder on both ends

-Outstanding defensive potential

-Very good shot-blocker

-Quick jumper, good timing

-Mobility to guard the pick-and-roll

-Lateral agility and quickness to cover stretch 4s

-High upside

Weaknesses

-Needs to add strength/bulk

-Raw on the offensive end

-Not much of a jump shoot

-Poor foul shooter

-Lack of a post game

-Inexperienced on offense

-Still learning defensive nuance

-Foul Prone

NBA Comparison

Serge Ibaka is the obvious comparison, but Ibaka had better shooting mechanics and became a very good shooter quickly. John Henson has similar size, length, and mobility with top shotblocking ability and the mobility to be a very good defender all over the court. Both need to get stronger, however Capela is younger and has a better frame than Henson did coming out, still both have the same potential to be game changing defenders.

Draft Projection

Capela is just getting onto NBA radars and should continue to rise as his play against older, more experienced players continues to improve. Right now, Capela is likely in the 20s right now, but could go has hog has the late lottery, if not higher.

Highlights

*In French Pro A

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NBA Draft: Dario Saric Scouting Report

Measurements

Age: 19; Height: 6-10; Weight: 223; Wingspan: 6-10

Season Stats (as of 2/17)*

31.5 mpg, 15.8 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.5 bpg, 2.9 tpg, 3.1 fpg, .535 FG, .706 FT .319 3P

Strengths

-Good size for a 3/4

-Very fluid, underrated athletically

-Moves very well

-Good hands, ball skills
-Improving mid-range game

-Excellent slasher

-Finishes well at the rim

-Draws fouls

-Excellent ball handler

-Point guard abilities

-Special court vision for a forward

-Very good, creative passer

-Good rebounder

-Plays the passing lanes

-Outstanding feel for the game

-Good motor, plays hard

Weaknesses

-Lacks great length

-Just an average athlete

-Not particularly quick laterally

-Lacks strength

-May struggle against athletic wings, strong bigs

-Still a below average 3-point shooter

-Turns the ball over a lot

-Tries to do too much sometimes

-Not a fit for every team, offense

-May require some creative defensive and offensive planning

-Not playing in the top European leagues

NBA Comparison

It is hard to find a good comparison for Saric, his passing as a forward is reminiscent of Boris Diaw though he has the ability to handle the ball and attack of the dribble at 6-10 like Thaddeus Young. The combination of the two isn't something seen in the NBA much today, and perhaps the most similar basketball player around is fellow draft project Kyle Anderson of UCLA.

Draft Projection

Saric is difficult to project because he won't be a fit for every team, however his unique abilities on offense could cause a team that falls in love to draft him as high as 6 and I can't see him falling out of the lottery.

Highlights

*In the Adriatic League

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NBA Draft: Julius Randle Scouting Report

Measurements

Age: 19; Height: 6-9; Weight: 250; Wingspan: 6-11; Reach: 8-9.5

Season Stats (as of 2/16)

29.8 mpg, 15.7 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.5 spg, 0.8 bpg, 2.9 tpg, 2.4 fpg, .529 FG, .711 FT, .250 3P

Strengths 

-Strong, physically built power forward

-Excellent athlete

-Explosive and very quick

-Very good first step

-Awesome scorer around the basket

-Strong finisher

-Excellent in the post

-Incredible attacking off the dribble facing up

-Raw skills as a jump shooter

-Draws a ton of fouls, coverts at a good rate

-Potential to be an efficient 20+ point scorer 

-Adept with both hands

-Good ball handler

-High IQ, good passer

-Plays tough defense

-Excellent rebounder on both ends

-Great motor, plays very hard

-Unafraid to be physical

-Improved shot selection, attacking more

Weaknesses

-Some may consider him undersized

-Below average length

-Can struggle against long defenders

-Has had condition problems in the past

-Somewhat turnover prone

-Jumper isn't a legitimate weapon yet

-Can get tunnel vision

-Sometimes relies on athleticism more than fundamentals

-Not consistently making impact plays on defense yet

-Will probably never be a top level shot blocker

NBA Comparison

Like Randle, Blake Griffin was dominant in college using his strength, athleticism, and skill to score in a variety of ways around the basket though they can struggle versus length. Both rebound at a high rate, excel at getting to the line and Griffin, like Randle, had the makings of a jumpshot that eventually became a weapon. Also, neither Randle or Griffin are impact defenders, but are solid on that end. 

Draft Projection

Randle should be a 20-10 power forward in the NBA with at least average defense. That is worth at least a top pick, possibly as high as 3rd overall, Randle should be the top power forward taken and second big man after Joel Embiid.

Highlights

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NBA Draft: Noah Vonleh Scouting Report

Measurements

Age: 18; Height: 6-10; Weight: 240; Wingspan: 7-4; Reach: 8-10

Season Stats (as of 2/16)

25.8 mpg, 11.6 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 0.5 apg, 0.9 spg, 1.3 bpg, 2.3 tpg, 2.7 fpg, .540 FG, .720 FT, .542 3P

Strengths

-Excellent size, length, reach, build, and frame

-Tremendous growth potential

-Doesn't turn 18 until August 24th

-Good athlete for his size

-Excellent mobility and fluidity

-Runs the floor well

-Good finisher around the rim

-Flashes of a post game

-Rapidly improving jump shooter

-Potentially versatile pick-and-roll player and stretch 4/5

-Draws fouls, converts at the line

-High offensive upside

-Excellent defensive potential

-Length and mobility a real asset defensively

-Physical on the interior, hard to move

-Plays very strong and physical on both ends
-Excellent rebounder on both ends

-Awesome motor

Weaknesses
-Not an overly explosive leaper
-Relies more on length than vertical
-Offense mostly projection
-Not a dominant scorer right now
-Needs to improve ball-handling
-Still learning as a ball mover, turnover prone
-Poor 0.22 A/TO ratio
-Youth can have a downside as well
-Questions about his true position

NBA Comparison

Al Horford has great size, length, athleticism, and skill for a power forward, yet has played center at a high level for much of his career. Vonleh isn't quite the athlete or up to Horford's skill level yet, but he is longer and bigger at this stage in his career. If Vonleh's jump shot continues to develop, he could have a similar impact on both ends as Horford at both power forward or possibly center.

Draft Projection
Vonleh isn't as high profile as the other big time Freshman , but if he declares the draft process should be very kind to him. There's a chance he challenges Julius Randle, but must likely he will be battling with Aaron Gordon to be the second power forward drafted and land somewhere in the mid-to-end of the top 10. 

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NBA Draft: Aaron Gordon Scouting Report

Measurements

Age: 18; Height: 6-9, Weight: 225, Wingspan: 6-11.5, Reach: 8-10.5

Season Stats (as of 2/11)

30.8 mpg, 11.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.9 bpg, 1.4 tpg, 1.9 fpg, .471 FG, .296 3P, .418 FT

Strengths

-Good height and reach for a power forward

-Great frame, could add 25 more pounds

-Top level explosiveness and athleticism

-Tremendous second jump

-Very good hands

-Strong finisher above the rim

-True threat on lob plays and putbacks

-Good ball handler for his size

-Effective passer

-Very good rebounder

-Excellent defender with lockdown potential

-Capable of guarding both forward positions

-Willing help defender

-Defends without fouling

-High motor, plays very hard

-Very good feel for the game, high IQ

-Great teammate, willing to do dirty work

Weaknesses

-Below average wingspan

-Limited offensive player right now

-Jumpshot needs a lot of work

-Little post game

-Very poor free throw shooter

-Despite defensive ability, just average in terms of steals and blocks 

NBA Comparison

Amir Johnson is close in size (6-9, 210) to Gordon with similar explosiveness. In Johnson's first couple years, he made his name on defense and took most of his shots in the immediate basket area, not taking less than 70% of his shots from point blank range until his fifth season. Later in his career, Johnson became an above-average midrange shooter, even extending out to the 3-point line. Gordon should follow a similar arc: rebounding, defending, and finishing a high percentage of short shots, while slowly expanding his game outwards. Gordon has more upside than Johnson due to his bigger frame and ball moving skills.

Draft Projection

Gordon is still a baby, both physically and skill-wise, so he will be drafted a lot on the hope his offense catches up to the defense. Right now, he is a lock for the top 10, but will have to battle Noah Vonleh to be the second power forward drafted after Julius Randle.
Aaron Gordon Highlights

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