Denver Nuggets Draft Review

16. Jusuf Nurkic, C Bosnia (6-11, 280)

The Nuggets traded their lottery pick to the Bulls for two mid-first rounders, and got two lottery talents there anyways. The first and most intruiging of these picks is Jusuf Nurkic, a massive low-post player with great hands and a soft touch. Nurkic is just 19 and likely to stay in Europe for another year or two, but if he continues to develop and focus on conditioning, he could have a big impact on the NBA. The interesting thing about this pick is that the Nuggets are such a fast paced team and Nurkic, who has struggle with weight occasionally, could be an issue getting up and down the court in the Colorado altitude.

19. Gary Harris, SG Michigan State So. (6-5, 205)

With their second first rounder, the Nuggets drafted a higher-floor, lower-ceiling prospect in Gary Harris, who will be the Nuggets long term solution at shooting guard once Arron Afflalo becomes a free agent, likely next summer. Harris was projected to the lottery by many, he has shown the ability to be an excellent shooter (though last season he was very streaky), can handle the ball some, and is a committed, skilled defender. The issues teams likely had was the fact that Harris is not a top athlete, isn't very long, and is undersized (6-2.5 in socks, don't buy the 2-inches he gained in shoes). That lack of physical gifts means he'll have to work extra hard on both ends, which he will, but it narrows the margin for error. It simply is much easier in the NBA if you have length and athleticism. Don't expect a star in Harris, but a Wes Matthews type, if his shooting improves, is a high probability.

41. Nikola Jokic, PF Serbia (6-11, 253)

With a pretty full roster already, the Nuggets elected to draft another international to stash overseas until he can contribute and there is roster space for him. Jokic is intruiging because he has size, length, and a high skill level for a center. He isn't an elite athlete and will likely struggle to defend in space, but a large frame and a 7-3 wingspan should help his interior defense. On offense, he can handle, pass, and shoot, which is where his money will be made. If he can become a consistent shooter, the he could be a valuable piece. There is still a pretty good chance he never plays in the NBA, but Jokic is intruiging non-the-less.   

Projected Lineup

PG: Ty Lawson/Nate Robinson

SG: Arron Afflalo/Gary Harris/Quincy Miller

SF: Danilo Gallinari/Wilson Chandler

PF: Kenneth Faried/Darrell Arthur

C: JaVale McGee/Timofey Mozgov

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Gary Harris: Inside the Numbers

During the 2012-13 season, Freshman guard Gary Harris was critical to a Michigan State teamthat  reached the Sweet 16. He was second on the team in scoring and one Freshman of the Year in the Big 10. In the offseason Harris eschewed the NBA Draft, where he would have been a lottery pick, possibly in the top 10, and returned for his Sophomore season. Based on his counting stats, Harris made a good choice:

2012-13: 29.7 mpg, 12.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.5 tpg

2013-15: 30.1 mpg, 17.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.0 apg, 2.1 tpg

On a superficial level, Harris is producing at a higher level than last season with only a negligible increase in minutes.* In a sense, that is true, he is rebounding the ball better and become a better playmaker, without turning the ball over much more often. However, it is the scoring number that is misleading, Harris may be scoring more, but he has been doing so much less efficiently:

2012-13: .456 FG%, .411 3P%

2013-14: .403 FG%, .312 3P%

Both Harris' overall shooting percentage and three-point percentage are down significantly, and the reason for his increased scoring is due in large part to taking a greater volume of shots. His shots per game grew from 9.7 in his Freshman year to to 13.9 this year and he is also taking 3.1 more threes per game. Basically, it appears Harris is making more shots because he is taking more shots, not necessarily because he has improved offensively. However, just as the counting stats deceive, so do the shooting percentages. The drain on Harris' percentages are due almost entirely to an extended three-point shooting slump, and to a lesser extent shot selection. In fact, Harris has improved as an offensive player in several ways, despite a much lower FG% this season, Harris has actually improved his efficiency from two-point range:

2012-13: 2-point FG% 85/171 (.497%), 3-point FG% 65/158 (.411%)

2013-14: 2-point FG% 32/62 (.516%), 3-point FG% 24/77 (.312%)

In addition to this, Harris is also drawing more fouls a game (2.9 to 4.2) and converting them at a higher rate than last season. Based on this, if his shooting rebounds he could be an even more effective scorer. Until then, he should attack the basket more and attempt to get to the free throw line.  Harris has a nice floater, is good at beating his man, and moves well without the ball so he should be able to find ways to score inside the arc until his shooting stroke returns. The question is, of course, will it return? It is important to note that health may be playing a role in both his shot selection and shooting; Harris has missed 3 games this season with a nagging ankle injury he first hurt over the summer. If he can get healthy**, it could do wonders for his efficiency. Based on the eye test, Harris should bounce back; his stroke looks good and was very effective last season; this is backed up by the fact that he is an excellent free throw shooter converting at a .905% rate, which is usually a sign of a good stroke. 

For his draft stock, it is important that Harris shows his Freshman year shooting isn't a fluke because teams will already look at him questionable due to the fact that he is undersized, which means shooting will be even more important for him at the next level against bigger NBA wings. Michigan State lists him at 6-4, while at the Kevin Durant Skills Camp he measured in with only a 6-7 wingspan***, Harris isn't an elite athlete either. He is often compared to Bradley Beal physically, but Beal was bigger, longer, and a better athlete. Blocked shots is usually a good indicator of athletic ability in guards, Harris has blocked 8 shots in his Michigan State career, Beal blocked 31 in seven less games. However, Harris is a good, committed defender, he just may not physically be able to have a huge impact on that end beyond just being above average. As he enters Big 10 conference, Harris will have plenty of opportunities to adjust his shot selection and improve his shooting. In addition to this, if he declares for the draft he will have workouts to show his shooting ability. Harris has improved other parts of his game, but the shooting from three is the key to his draft stock.

*Though in an increased role.

**It is also worth questioning if Harris, who also had offseason shoulder surgery, is simply injury prone
***Via DraftExpress

2013-2014 NCAA Basketball Pre-Season All-American Teams

All-American First Team

G: Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State, So.

Reigning Big 12 Player of the Year and Second Team All-American last season, Smart affects the game beyond the box score. His defense and leadership are lauded by coaches, while his ability to make winning plays as well as stuff the stat-sheet should endear him to voters once again.

G: Russ Smith, Louisville, Sr.

Russ Smith averaged 18.7 points a game for the Title-winning Cardinals and plays an exciting style of basketball on both ends of the court. He pressures the ball relentlessly on defense and is a one man fast-break going the other way. With second and third leading scorers Peyton Siva and Gorgui Dieng gone, Smith should produce even more this season.

F: Jabari Parker, Duke, Fr.

While choosing Parker over Andrew Wiggins may seem ridicules to some, Parker is every bit the player Wiggins is right now, and more polished. Five years from now, give me Wiggins, but this season, particularly early I think Parker out-produces Wiggins and will be on a better team. Also, Parker will play a lot of 4, which means high rebounding numbers.

F: Doug McDermott, Creighton, Sr.

As much of a lock for the All-American team as anyone, McDermott has been on the First Team the last two season and should go down as one of the best college scorers in history. He is looking for his third straight 20 point season, and he a higher profile Big East conference to show out in.

C: Adreian Payne, Michigan, Sr.

This may seem like a bold projection for Payne, but if he improves with the same learning curve he has to this point, and gets an increase in minutes, Payne should produce at a high level. Not only has he progressed skill-wise, he has also grown in the mental aspects of the game, allowing Payne to use his considerable physical gifts.

All-American Second Team

G: Aaron Craft, Ohio State, Sr.

Like Marcus Smart, Aaron Craft affects the game beyond what the box score indicates. His stats are pedestrian, barely averaging double digit points and doing so inefficiently, however his intense defense and leadership are invaluable. He will need to take a step forward offensively this season for Ohio State.

G: Gary Harris, Michigan State, So.

After a quietly impressive Freshman season, Gary Harris passed up on the NBA to return for another season at Michigan State. Fully healthy after shoulder surgery, Harris should become one of the premier perimeter scorers in the country, getting it done on both ends of the court and filling it up from all over the floor.

F: Andrew Wiggins, Kansas, Fr.

By now, most non-Jayhawk fans are sick of hearing about how great Andrew Wiggins is, and for good reason: he is very impressive. Wiggins in a surefire top-3 draft pick and future star, as explosive a player as you will see and exciting on both offense and defense. I worry about expectations early, but by Tournament time he should be rolling. 

F: Julius Randle, Kentucky, Fr.

A monster of a man and an elite athlete, Julius Randle is also very skilled. Like Wiggins he'll be a top NBA pick and should be the next in line of Kentucky one-and-done's. He could easily take off and be First Team, but Kentucky is loaded with options that will cannibalize each other's stats.

C: Montrezl Harrell, Louisville, So.

Montrezl Harrell's stats last season are unimpressive because he played a small role behind First Round pick Gorgui Dieng. This year Harrell, fresh off of playing with Team USA and winning the U19 championship, will step into Dieng's role and minutes and should blow up with points, rebounds and defense.

All-American Third Team

G: Tyler Haws, BYU, Jr.

One of the most unheralded great players in college basketball, Tyler Haws was awesome last season, averaging 21.7 points per game with a very impressive 47%/38%/88% slash line. BYU could ride Haws to a Tournament birth which should put him in consideration for the All-American team. 

G: Nick Johnson, Arizona, Jr.

Lost in all the hype surrounding Arizona's last two big recruiting classes is that Nick Johnson was very impressive last season and will likely be their leading scorer this season. Johnson is also a very good defender and a highlight dunk waiting to happen, which should get him national exposure.

F: Glenn Robinson III, Michigan, So.

Glenn Robinson III eschewed the NBA to come back as Michigan's returning leading scorer along with Nik Stauskas. Robinson III will be the alpha-male on this Michigan team and should put up big numbers as he becomes more consistent game to game.

F: C.J. Fair, Syracuse, Sr.

Quietly one of the best players in the country last season, C.J. Fair has always been an elite athlete, a good rebounder and defender but now he's become a very good shooter who can fill it up from the outside. Syracuse usually has a balanced scoring attack, but Fair will lead the way on what should be a  very good team.

C: Isaiah Austin, Baylor, So.

This last big man spot could go to a lot of players, a couple of the Kentucky guys, Mitch McGary or Aaron Gordon could all fit here, however I think Austin takes a step forward to build on what was an already impressive Freshman year. Austin should be the focal point of Baylor's offense and a good statistical contributor across the board.