Showing posts with label Nuggets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nuggets. Show all posts

Friday, June 30, 2017

Denver Nuggets Draft Review

Current Roster
PG: Jamal Murray/Emmanuel Mudiay/Jameer Nelson/Monte Morris
SG: Gary Harris/Malik Beasley/Mike Miller
SF: Wilson Chandler/Will Barton
PF: Juancho Hernangomez/Kenneth Faried/Darrell Arthur/Trey Lyles/Tyler Lydon
C: Nikola Jokic

2017 Free Agents
Unrestricted
F Danillo Gallinari
C Roy Hibbert

Restricted
C Mason Plumlee

Who They Drafted
1-24 Tyler Lydon, PF Syracuse
2-49 Vlatko Cancar, SF Mege Bemax
2-51 Monte Morris, PG Iowa State
After trading down and aquiring Jazz power forward Trey Lyles, the Nuggest selected... well, a player very similar to Trey Lyles. Tyler Lydon is sweet-shooting forward with deep range on his jumper. A career .398% three point shooter (246 attempts), Lydon projects as a stretch power forward at the next level that can make opponents pay for leaving him but also make a couple plays off the dribble if closed-out against too aggressively. The rest of his game is more worrisome, though a good shot-blocker Lydon is an uncertain defender to to his lack of man-to-man experience, playing in Syracuse's 2-3 zone exclusively in college. Though a solid athlete, Lydon isn't super strong and will probably struggle versus any level of force in the NBA. If he can play passable defense, his ability to shoot and block shots will be value, though it will take a lot of improvement to his body and skills. Even then, with stretchy power forwards Jaun Hernangomez and Tyler Lydon already ahead of him on the roster, not to mention Darrell Arthur and Kenneth Faried, it's hard to imagine Lydon is going get any playing time soon.
Later in the second round, the Nuggets took an international prospect, Vlatko Cancar, a wing that can shoot the ball some and should grow into a weapon in that respect. While not much of a playmaker by any means, Cancar is capable off the dribble, at least when given a path to the rim. Defensively, Cancar lacks great physical tools but is smart and gives good effort. Overall, Cancar has potential to be a solid shoot off the bench but it is harder to see how he becomes more than that, though the Nuggets will certainly give him time to try over in Europe.
Two picks later, the Nuggets drafted one of the best players in college basketball, Monte Morris. Despite handling the ball as the lead guard in a fast, wide-open system at Iowa State, Morris had an historically great assist-to-turnover ratio, a testament to his intelligence, ball-handling, and passing ability. Morris isn't a great athlete and will probably never be a good defender or finisher, however he is such a solid passer and ball-handler as well as a knockdown shooter, I bet he'll end up making it in the league despite the poor record of lower second round picks making it in the NBA.

What They Need Going Forward
Though they have been rumored to be trying to trade for Paul George and Kevin Love, what the Nuggets really need to be doing is using their cap space to sign an impact player or two that won't also compromise their prodigious young talent. Paul Millsap is the obvious choice here and a fit that makes so much sense and will likely be the first call they make when free agency starts.

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Tuesday, March 1, 2016

2016 NBA Mock Lottery (4/16)

Mock drafts prior to the reveling of the actual lottery and draft order are pretty silly, but since usually the changes are minor, we can at least gain a little insight into what things will look like on draft night and what teams may be thinking. This is what I believe, without any inside information, is most likely to happen at this exact moment subject to massive changes before draft night.

01. Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons, PF LSU
Prior to Sam Hinkie's resignation, Brandon Ingram would have been the obvious choice here, however with Bryan Collangelo now in charge with presumably a mandate to make the Sixers competitive and marketable fast, it seems highly likely they will look to draft a more hyped, popular player who may be more ready to contribute from day one. Simmons is a poor fit, in my opinion, but with conventional wisdom now reigning once again in Philadelphia, Simmons seems likely to be the guy.

02. Los Angeles Lakers: Brandon Ingram, SF Duke
While they may be more interested in landing a quote star un-quote in the draft, Ingram is a much more obvious fit in LA, where the Lakers are severely lacking in both defensive players and shooters. Ingram also doesn't overlap positionaly with Julius Randle like Simmons would. If the lottery holds true and it goes Sixers #1 and Lakers #2, I would expect LA to draft whomever Philadephia doesn't draft between  Ingram and Simmons and be completely happy with that.

03. Boston Celtics (from Brooklyn): Jaylen Brown, SF California
This is the toughest pick to project, based on currant draft standing, because Boston is playoff team without a ton of obvious needs (excluding a true super-star, which you most likely aren't finding in this draft) so where do they go? Dragan Bender is the best prosper available (and the best in the draft, in my opinion) but he isn't a player likely to have an immediate impact and might not even come to the NBA right away. Add to that, the Celtics are sort of piled up in the frontcourt. Jaylen Brown, on the other hand, is also somewhat of a project but fits into the Celtics multiple offense and would be an intruiging 1-2 forward punch with Jae Crowder which would allow Boston to switch everything and be and even more threatening transition team. They could also trade the pick and throw everything off.

04. Phoenix Suns: Dragan Bender, PF Maccabi Tel Aviv
A couple of wins late in the season dropped the Suns from the third best odds to the fourth, which could be the difference between getting one of the top tier of three prospects and not. In this scenario, if Boston is unwilling to take a project in Dragan Bender, the Suns could still luck out. After trading Markeiff Morris and now potentially losing Mirza Teletovic and Jon Leuer (backups at best) power forward is an area of longterm weakness in Phoenix. Bender is a stupendous prospect with special potential as a defender and the tools to become a versatile offensive player, just what Phoenix needs.

05. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jamal Murray, SG Kentucky
Aside from power forward, the Timberwolves have their starting five set (barring a Ricky Rubio trade) and with no power forward that really fits this draft range, they can look to something else they need: shooting and shot creation. Murray is an excellent shooter and while the jury may be out on his ability to consistently create at the next level, he has a good offensive feel and may fit better in the NBA where more space is available. If they trade Ricky Rubio, Kris Dunn could be and option, and if they believe a power forward is necessary, a versatile offensive player like Henry Ellenson could be an interesting fit with Karl-Anthony Towns.

06. New Orleans Pelicans: Kris Dunn, PG Providence
While Jrue Holiday, point guard, is one of New Orleans' two actually good players under contract, both he and Kris Dunn are big enough and have the defensive chops to defend shooting guards (in fact, Dunn is actually bigger than Eric Gordon) and Holiday can shoot well enough to make this pair work. Dunn is a great defenive prospect, a killer in transition, and a willing half-court player that should flourish as a third option in the more spacious NBA. Buddy Hield, as a more traditional shooting guard, is another option, as is a potential Ryan Anderson replacement in Henry Ellenson.

07. Denver Nuggets (from New York): Henry Ellenson, PF Marquette
The Nuggets have a ton of big men, but none of their power forwards are particularly skilled offensively (unless you include Danillo Gallinari who is injured often and possibly trade-bait). Henry Ellenson is a versatile offensive player with potential as a three-point shooter. He is a project defensively, but Mike Malone is known to get the best out of such players. They have depth in most spots on their roster and could go in many ways but Ellenson makes a lot of sense as a compliment to Kenneth Faried at power forward.

08. Sacramento Kings: Buddy Hield, SG Oklahoma
This is a marriage of player and team that just needs to happen. Hield could (foolishly) go earlier but if he is there, or if the Kings can acquire him by trade, it is something that would be perfect for them both on and off the court. Hield is exactly the type of player Sacramento needs, a knockdown three point shooter that is terrific moving off the ball. He is also a high character individual and tireless worker, the type of leader that the Kings desperately need. Make it happen, Vlade Divac (but don't give up too much)

09. Toronto Raptors (from Denver): Marquese Chriss, PF Washington
The Raptors love taking high-upside projects, and while their thinking may change this picking this high, I doubt it. Marquese Chriss, with work, could seriously be their starting power forward of the future, something they aren't particularly set up with at this point. Chriss has the potential to be a dynamite offensive player that can shoot and drive. He is a raw player that very much needs to learn the game, but the tools are off the charts.

10. Milwaukee Bucks: Jakob Poeltl, C Utah
Another perfect marriage of player/team. Since they made the change from Zaza Pachulia to Greg Monroe, the Bucks haven't been the same team. The need someone who an excell on the defensive glass, protect the rim, and set good screens, which are all areas that Poeltl could excel at. Monroe, if he isn't traded, could still be gone after next season, which would open the door for Poeltl full time. Last season, Milwaukee brought Monroe of the bench and started Miles Plumlee. Poeltl could do the same, and be much better than Plumlee.

11. Orlando Magic: Ivan Rabb, PF California
The Magic have big plans when it comes to adding free agents this summer, so they could trade this pick to save space or draft a stash prospect, however if they do go with a prospect that could play this year for them, power forward is an area they could address. Aaron Gordon is already blossoming into a star, but Jason Smith also played heavy minutes last season as his backup, which translates to you need another backup power forward, particularly since Smith is a free agent this summer. Ivan Rabb is a very solid player, smart and skilled. He is limit in some ways, but should be a good option for rebounding, defense, and some inside-out scoring off the bench.

12. Utah Jazz: Demetrius Jackson, PG Norte Dame
Even if Dante Exum returns to full strength next season, Utah will still need a point guard because the poo-poo platter of Shelvin Mack, Raul Neto, and Trey Burke just isn't going to cut it for a playoff team, especially if Exum (who has a ways to go himself) isn't back to full-strength. Demetrius Jackson is better than all those other options, a dynamic athlete that has a long track record of excellent outside shooting and tough defense. He could backup Exum or play alongside him, due to Exum's excellent size. Utah needs a point guard that can create, defend, and shoot, not just one of those things.

13. Phoenix Suns (from Washington): Timothe Luwawu, SF Mega Leks
With their second first round pick in the draft, the Suns can look to shore up another area of need, small forward (or power forward if they draft, say, Jaylen Brown with their earlier pick). With what appears to be three high-usage guards on the roster, the Suns need players to go with them that don't need the ball to be valueable. Timothe Luwawu looks to be that type of player, a versatile defensive wing with potential in that area as well as shooting the ball, where he has made great strides of late, however his low release is still somewhat of a question mark.

14. Chicago Bulls: Denzel Valentine, SG Michigan State
This seems like the kind of pick the Bulls seem to like. A decorated four year college player that can probably play very soon in his young career. Denzel Valentine is not without his faults (defense) but he seems like an ideal fit in Fred Hoiberg's offense because he is a knockdown shooter with tremendous vision and passing ability. Another option is fellow Spartan Deyonta Davis, who could be the first step in rebuilding the beleaguered Bulls frontcourt, once a source of so much depth, not possibly losing both Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah. The same could be said about Domantas Sabonis, who is the kind of skilled player that could excel under Hoiberg.

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Friday, July 3, 2015

2015 Draft Review: Denver Nuggets

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Ty Lawson/Erick Green
SG: Emmanuel Mudiay/Randy Foye/Gary Harris/Jamaal Franklin
SF: Danilo Gallinari/Wilson Chandler
PF: Kenneth Faried/J.J. Hickson/Joffery Lauvergne
C: Jusef Nurkic/Nikola Jokic

2015 Free Agents
G/F Will Barton (RFA)
G Ian Clark (RFA)
PF Darrell Arthur
PG Jameer Nelson (player option)

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Congolese-American point guard Emmanuel Mudiay 7th overall
The Nuggets had considered trading up for Mudiay, but lucked out when who I considered to be the second best prospect in the draft, fell to them at pick seven. Emmanuel Mudiay is a perfect fit for Denver's situation and team; he'll allow them to move on from Ty Lawson, getting value from him via trade while also having a prospect with better long-term potential at point guard than Lawson. Mudiay should flourish in Denver because Mike Malone should help him get the most out of his immense defensive potential while also playing to his strengths on offense. Mudiay is terrific fast-breaking in the open floor, which is what the Nuggets want to do in the altitude.When they do get in the half-court, Mudiay excels running pick-and-roll and he'll have plenty of opportunities with some good partners with which to run it. Pick-and-roll should be the bread-and-butter of Denver's halfcourt offense for years to come, which sets the direction they should be heading towards when acquiring players: efficient pick-and-roll players that are good at both starting and finishing fast breaks.

Drafted Serbian point guard Nikola Radicevic 57th overall
Radicevic, who played with fellow draftees Kristaps Porzingis and Guillermo Henangomez at Sevilla, isn't likely to come to the NBA anytime soon but has some potential when he does. A big point guard that is good running pick-and-roll, Radicevic is similar to Mudiay in several ways, though not as good of an athlete or finisher. He is a good lateral athlete though, which combined with his size gives him the potential to be an above-average defender. Where he needs to improve is shooting from range, he made just 25% of his shots in the ACB last season. For a 57th overall pick, Radicevic has better than average odds to make it to the NBA as a backup point guard.

What To Do Next?
Denver needs to figure out which players they are keeping and whom they want to move on from. Lawson is most likely out the door, giving Mudiay a chance to start early on and the Nuggets really should try to get what they can for Faried, who isn't that good of a player and is vastly overpaid. There have been rumors that Gallinari is also on the block, but I am not sure why they would want to. Gallinari is a good player, just 26, and on a good contract. After trades, Denver should target younger players to grow with the core of Mudiay, Nurkic, and possibly Gallinari. Justin Holiday is an athletic wing with solid defensive, ball-handling, and shooting potential. He could duplicate a lot of what Will Barton gave them last year, but with better chance of making outside shots. Derrick Williams would also be an interesting potential lottery ticket. He has always been very good getting out in transition and if he develops a jumpshot, they could have a nice fit for that they want to do.

A bonus trade sure not to happen
Faried (or Gallinari) and Lawson to Boston for Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk, and Gerald Wallace

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Sunday, June 14, 2015

2015 Draft Preview: Denver Nuggets

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Ty Lawson/Erick Green
SG: Randy Foye/Gary Harris/Jamaal Franklin
SF: Danilo Gallinari/Wilson Chandler
PF: Kenneth Faried/J.J. Hickson/Joffery Lauvergne
C: Jusef Nurkic/Nikola Jokic

2015 Free Agents
G/F Will Barton (RFA)
G Ian Clark (RFA)
PF Darrell Arthur
PG Jameer Nelson (player option)

2015 Draft Picks
1-7
2-27(57) via Portland

Team Needs 
No team's needs are subject to change as much as the Nuggets prior to the draft, as they could hire a coach that could dramatically shift the direction of their system (Mike d'Antoni for instance) and trade pretty much anyone on the roster, including Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried. As things stand now, Denver has a talented roster that injuries, chemistry, and a poorly matched coach ranked. Lawson, Gallnari (when healthy), and Nurkic are all starting quality players, while power forward and shooting guard are areas that can be improved upon. Faried got a big contract that will likely keep him in the starting lineup, but his abilities don't merit it. Harris and Foye are solid players, but are better suited to coming off of the bench. 

Potential Fits
At shooting guard, there probably isn't a one available at pick 7 worth the pick, unless Denver want to play a natural small forward there or Duke's Justise Winslow or Croatian Mario Hezonja in unexpectedly available. Power forward has some more intruiging options, Kristaps Porzingis would be a great fit and Denver has enough options that he wouldn't need to be forced into action too early. Willie Cauley-Stein of Kentucky is an option, but unless Nurkic is traded, those two probably couldn't play together. One solution that would fit the available players would be playing Gallinari at power forward more and drafting a wing like Arizona's Stanley Johnson to play alongside of him. Johnson is strong and versatile enough to cross-match defensively with Gallinari depending on match-ups.

Mock Draft
7. Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Seville
57. Joseph Young, SG, Oregon

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Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Denver Nuggets Draft Review

16. Jusuf Nurkic, C Bosnia (6-11, 280)
The Nuggets traded their lottery pick to the Bulls for two mid-first rounders, and got two lottery talents there anyways. The first and most intruiging of these picks is Jusuf Nurkic, a massive low-post player with great hands and a soft touch. Nurkic is just 19 and likely to stay in Europe for another year or two, but if he continues to develop and focus on conditioning, he could have a big impact on the NBA. The interesting thing about this pick is that the Nuggets are such a fast paced team and Nurkic, who has struggle with weight occasionally, could be an issue getting up and down the court in the Colorado altitude.

19. Gary Harris, SG Michigan State So. (6-5, 205)
With their second first rounder, the Nuggets drafted a higher-floor, lower-ceiling prospect in Gary Harris, who will be the Nuggets long term solution at shooting guard once Arron Afflalo becomes a free agent, likely next summer. Harris was projected to the lottery by many, he has shown the ability to be an excellent shooter (though last season he was very streaky), can handle the ball some, and is a committed, skilled defender. The issues teams likely had was the fact that Harris is not a top athlete, isn't very long, and is undersized (6-2.5 in socks, don't buy the 2-inches he gained in shoes). That lack of physical gifts means he'll have to work extra hard on both ends, which he will, but it narrows the margin for error. It simply is much easier in the NBA if you have length and athleticism. Don't expect a star in Harris, but a Wes Matthews type, if his shooting improves, is a high probability.

41. Nikola Jokic, PF Serbia (6-11, 253)
With a pretty full roster already, the Nuggets elected to draft another international to stash overseas until he can contribute and there is roster space for him. Jokic is intruiging because he has size, length, and a high skill level for a center. He isn't an elite athlete and will likely struggle to defend in space, but a large frame and a 7-3 wingspan should help his interior defense. On offense, he can handle, pass, and shoot, which is where his money will be made. If he can become a consistent shooter, the he could be a valuable piece. There is still a pretty good chance he never plays in the NBA, but Jokic is intruiging non-the-less.   

Projected Lineup
PG: Ty Lawson/Nate Robinson
SG: Arron Afflalo/Gary Harris/Quincy Miller
SF: Danilo Gallinari/Wilson Chandler
PF: Kenneth Faried/Darrell Arthur
C: JaVale McGee/Timofey Mozgov

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Saturday, November 2, 2013

What's Up With The Nuggets?

Last season, the Nuggets won 57 games, grabbed the number three seed in the playoffs, and averaged 106.1 points a game, tops in the league* as well as having the 11th most efficient defense in the NBA. So far this season, they are 0-2, including losing on Friday for the first time at home in twenty-four games. Denver is scoring only 93 points a game (23rd in efficiency) while giving up 101.5 (20th in efficiency). Obviously this is a tiny sample-size that is hard to learn much from, but it bears out what is pretty clear on the court, this team is a mess right now and nothing like what it was last season. This isn't surprising considering all the changes they went through in the off-season, from the top of the organization on down. After GM Masai Ujiri left for Toronto, the Nuggets fired George Karl and hired Brian Shaw, a first time head coach who helped the turnaround in Indiana. They also allowed Andre Igoudala to leave in Free Agency, traded Kosta Koufos for Darrell Arthur, and signed Randy Foye, Nate Robinson, and J.J. Hickson. So far they have really looked like they are struggling to make the pieces fit together on both ends of the floor. Shaw, a discipline and defense oriented coach, has been given a number of undisciplined players who struggle on defense. JaVale McGee, who signed a four-year, $44 million deal last summer, was supposed to be a franchise player for them this year, but he logged only 10 and 13 minutes in Denver's first two games. Kenneth Faried, who became a star for them last season and started 80 games, was moved to the bench and had his role decreased. Andre Miller, who Karl came to rely on heavily, has also seen his minutes drop. These were all big parts of last year's team, relegated to minor roles so far. It is hard not to point to their defense as a reason for the decreased roles. But if Shaw doesn't want to play them, he is left with limited options and no real dynamic talent except Ty Lawson, until Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari return from injury. The other issue is that Faried and Miller have two years left on their deals, while McGee has three and Miller, who is 37 and hasn't had a ton of playoff success potentially wanting to bolt for a better team and more minutes, and he does have a reputation as being a little bit of a trouble-maker in the past. Shaw could turn this all around and the team could look completely different in a couple weeks, but the possibility of a pretty big mess is laying in the weeds right now. All is not lost in Denver however, Chandler should be back soon and Gallinari could be back as soon as soon as January, but the issue remains that the Nuggets have a lot of pieces at high prices that their new coach doesn't seem thrilled with. If they continue to struggle, there could be some trades coming.

*They were 5th in offensive efficiency.

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