PG Patty Mills
Reason for Value: Over-saturated Point Guard Market
The NBA has more good-to-great point guards than ever before and with a good point guard draft bringing more lead guard talent into the league, there just isn't that many teams that need point guards any more and that will be willing to hand out money for them.
What They Bring to the Table: Bench Production
Mills has been one of the best backup point guards in the league for the last couple years, capable of lighting up the scoreboard when need be but also providing consistent offensive production night in and night out. A career .395% shooter from three-point range, Mills can be relied on to space the floor, run pick-and-roll and create offense for himself. While mostly known as a scorer, Mills has also improved as a playmaker for others, posting his best assist rate since 2011-12, 24.3%, which ranked 27th among point guards last season. For a playoff contending team looking for some bench scoring, Mills would be a perfect fit and probably won't cost too much, especially if he isn't signed by the time the point guard musical chairs (Kyle Lowry, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague, George Hill, etc) ends.
SF/PF Rudy Gay
Reason for Value: Injury risk
Gay ruptured his Achilles (a serious injury) in January and missed the remainder of the season. Despite the risk, Gay opted out (apparently he really wanted to get out of Sacramento) and bet on himself in the open market. As long as he is able to recover and gets a clean bill of health from team physicians, Gay could be a value signing because his market will be depressed due to risk-adverse teams. If not for the injury, Gay would be a top target in free agency.
What He Brings to the Table: Production and Potential
Despite his reputation as an empty stats player, Rudy Gay has become a much better all around contributor at both forward spots in the last couple years, including ranking in the top 15 in RPM among small forwards despite playing for the dumpster-fire Kings. Due to the injury and aging, Gay may fit best long term at power forward, once he is unable to chase wings around on the perimeter night-in and night-out. That ability to move to the 4 is also a nice backup plan as he ages, as some smaller players would lose more value once they aged. A power forward that can shoot the ball (.372%) and create his own shot off the dribble is a very valuable piece. Now, if teams are paying Gay like they would pre-injury, this isn't a bargain, but that seems unlikely given how risk-adverse most teams are nowadays.
SG/SF Thabo Sefolosha
Reason for Value: Perception
Once a player has received the label of "can't shoot" it is extremely difficult for them to shake it, even when they show improvements over time. Thabo Sefolosha has long been regarded as a great defender that doesn't bring much to the table offensively. The perception, plus his age (33) could
What He Brings to the Table: Inexpensive 3-and-D
Let's be clear, Sefolosha is not much of an offensive threat, nor is he an incredible shooter, but he is still a good enough defender, smart, agile, long, and impactful that he has value in a limited role as a a defensive stopper alone. He just needs to be "good enough" as a shooter to be a rotation player and, at least for the last two season, he was just that, shooting right around 34% from three both seasons, numbers that while not eye-popping are "good enough" when you consider his defense. I don't think Thabo makes sense for non-contending teams, but higher end teams that want to compete with the Warriors and need wing defenders, Sefolosha should be a quality, and inexpensive, option.
SG Ben McLemore
Reason for Value: Played for the Kings
Now I will be the first to admit that the Kings have been doing a much better job recently, however in the past their organization has been so unstable, with countless coaching changes, ill-fitting rosters, and managerial edicts that it is hard to evaluate some of their players in that context. After being drafted 7th overall by the Kings, Ben McLemore has been disappoint, no doubt but he is only 24 and hasn't really had the benefit of a stable environment. McLemore is likely to be cheap, very cheap, but still has some potential left to become the player his physical tools and skills suggest.
What He Brings to the Table: Potential 3-and-D
A tremendous athlete that can run in transition and finish high above the rim, McLemore hasn't quite figured out how to turn that athletic ability into defensive production, but the tools are still there, even if he isn't quite as quick laterally as the rest of his athleticism might suggest. One encouraging sign for McLemore is the steady improvement of his three-point shot, which peaked a .382% last season and could still improve. These tools and skills, plus a more cohesive environment and better coaching, are what teams will bank on when it comes to McLemore. Coming out of college, McLemore was already considered a potentially great shooter and defender who needed to work on his offense off the dribble, and while the jury may be out on his shooting and defense, it is safe to say their is little hope he becomes a better shot creator. However, the upside he has to be a 3-and-D role player at just 24 years old, at a low cost, is an investment teams should look into.
SF/PF Nikola Mirotic (restricted free agent)
Reason for Value: Poorly Used by Previous Team
Due to their asinine roster construction, the Bulls need floor spacing so badly that they basically made Mirotic as spot up shooter. While shooting is a part of Mirotic's game (one he needs to be more consistent at, but he's still a career 35% three-point shooter) he can do so much more and a better coached team will see that and use him more to his strengths.
What He Brings to the Table: Offensive Skill and Sneaky Defensive Production
Believe it or not, Nikola Mirotic actually ranked in the top 10 in RPM for power forwards, better than Kristaps Porzingis, LaMarcus Aldridge, Thad Young, and Serge Ibaka among others. Even more surprising is that he ranked better defensively than offensively. Though he can actually be a quality defender due to his smarts and mobility, Mirotic will make his money on offense. A versatile offensive player, Mirotic can handle the ball and drive to the rim, where he is a solid finisher and is good at drawing fouls. And yes, he can also shoot even if he has been more streaky than expected. Mirotic probably wants out of Chicago and the Bulls may not be eager to bring him back, but he is a restricted free agent, which makes things tricky but in the end, Mirotic was so poorly used that he could be gotten for a reasonable price and provide above-average offensive production once he is given more freedom.
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Showing posts with label free agency. Show all posts
Showing posts with label free agency. Show all posts
Friday, June 30, 2017
Saturday, April 15, 2017
2017 NBA Offseason Preview: Phoenix Suns
Current Roster
PG: Eric Bledsoe/Tyler Ulis
SG: Devin Booker/Brandon Knight/Elijah Millsap
SF: T.J. Warren/Derrick Jones Jr.
PF: Marquese Chriss/Jared Dudley
C: Tyson Chandler/Dragan Bender
2017 Free Agents
Unrestricted
None
Restricted
C Alex Len
C Alan Williams
PG Ronnie Price
2017 Draft Picks
.199% at First Pick (2nd best odds)
2-23
2-55
Building Blocks
For a 24-58 team, the Suns have a surprising amount of talented players. Devin Booker has had moments of offensive brilliance and averaged two more points per game (22.1) than his age (20) while TJ Warren bounced back from early season injury and played well.
Their rookies showed promise as well, Tyler Ulis proved he can hang at the NBA level as a backup point guard, 19-year old Marquese Chriss played in all 82 games and while still a far ways off, at least got valuable experience. Dragan Bender, also just 19, showed flashes as well, but struggled with injuries and didn't get much playing time, however there isn't any reason to thing he can't develop into a rotation player just yet. Even undrafted Derrick Jones Jr. gave some signs that he might be a player down the line.
In spite of his injury struggles (97 games played the last two seasons) Eric Bledsoe has been really, really good. However there is a real question as to whether or not Bledsoe, who will turn 28 in December, is really a part of the Suns future, and just how much they can get for him in a trade this summer if they decide to go in that direction.
Needs Going Forward
The Suns defense has not been good the past two seasons, finishing 26th and 28th in defensive efficiency. Aside from Bledsoe (who waxes and wanes) and Tyson Chandler, they don't have any good defenders on the roster. Ulis and Jones Jr. have potential on that end, but are rookies and bench players and while Jared Dudley is solid, he isn't exactly an impact defensive player. Booker is apocalypticaly bad defensively (93rd among SG in DRPM, 7th worst) as is Warren (77th among SF, 5th worst) and Chriss (94th among PF, absolute worst). Of those three, only Booker should really be a starter next season, so with Bledsoe, Chandler, and better defenders at the forward positions, improvement could come quickly.
Offensively, the Suns have obvious potential, as their most used lineup, the starters, have a 105.4 offensive rating, which would rank as 16th best in the NBA. And that is with a raw rookie in Chriss on the floor as well. Replace him with a more competent player and their offense could really take off, though of course defense would likely still be a problem with Warren and Booker on the floor, which is why two new starters seems like the best course of action, perhaps one free agent and one draft pick. The Suns aren't just a few pieces away from contending, but they could become competent with a couple moves.
Draft and Free Agency Targets
Assuming the Suns pick lands in the top 4, they'll likely have their choice between the top two forwards in the draft, Duke Jayson Tatum and Josh Jackson of Kansas. Tatum is the more advanced offensive player, while Jackson is ahead on defense. If they are indeed deciding between these two, the question will likely be whether or not they believe more in Tatum's defense or Jackson's offense.
In free agency, the Suns will likely not be shopping at the top of the market, but there are still some potential fits for what the need in the mid and lower tier of players. Rudy Gay would be an intriguing buy low option, as he is a better overall offensive and defensive player than he is given credit for and might not cost too much coming off of injury, though of course there is obvious risk. Other intersting buy low options including restricted free agent Nikola Mirotic or veterans like Patrick Patterson and Jonas Jerebko, all three of which are better defenders than you might think.
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PG: Eric Bledsoe/Tyler Ulis
SG: Devin Booker/Brandon Knight/Elijah Millsap
SF: T.J. Warren/Derrick Jones Jr.
PF: Marquese Chriss/Jared Dudley
C: Tyson Chandler/Dragan Bender
2017 Free Agents
Unrestricted
None
Restricted
C Alex Len
C Alan Williams
PG Ronnie Price
2017 Draft Picks
.199% at First Pick (2nd best odds)
2-23
2-55
Building Blocks
For a 24-58 team, the Suns have a surprising amount of talented players. Devin Booker has had moments of offensive brilliance and averaged two more points per game (22.1) than his age (20) while TJ Warren bounced back from early season injury and played well.
Their rookies showed promise as well, Tyler Ulis proved he can hang at the NBA level as a backup point guard, 19-year old Marquese Chriss played in all 82 games and while still a far ways off, at least got valuable experience. Dragan Bender, also just 19, showed flashes as well, but struggled with injuries and didn't get much playing time, however there isn't any reason to thing he can't develop into a rotation player just yet. Even undrafted Derrick Jones Jr. gave some signs that he might be a player down the line.
In spite of his injury struggles (97 games played the last two seasons) Eric Bledsoe has been really, really good. However there is a real question as to whether or not Bledsoe, who will turn 28 in December, is really a part of the Suns future, and just how much they can get for him in a trade this summer if they decide to go in that direction.
Needs Going Forward
The Suns defense has not been good the past two seasons, finishing 26th and 28th in defensive efficiency. Aside from Bledsoe (who waxes and wanes) and Tyson Chandler, they don't have any good defenders on the roster. Ulis and Jones Jr. have potential on that end, but are rookies and bench players and while Jared Dudley is solid, he isn't exactly an impact defensive player. Booker is apocalypticaly bad defensively (93rd among SG in DRPM, 7th worst) as is Warren (77th among SF, 5th worst) and Chriss (94th among PF, absolute worst). Of those three, only Booker should really be a starter next season, so with Bledsoe, Chandler, and better defenders at the forward positions, improvement could come quickly.
Offensively, the Suns have obvious potential, as their most used lineup, the starters, have a 105.4 offensive rating, which would rank as 16th best in the NBA. And that is with a raw rookie in Chriss on the floor as well. Replace him with a more competent player and their offense could really take off, though of course defense would likely still be a problem with Warren and Booker on the floor, which is why two new starters seems like the best course of action, perhaps one free agent and one draft pick. The Suns aren't just a few pieces away from contending, but they could become competent with a couple moves.
Draft and Free Agency Targets
Assuming the Suns pick lands in the top 4, they'll likely have their choice between the top two forwards in the draft, Duke Jayson Tatum and Josh Jackson of Kansas. Tatum is the more advanced offensive player, while Jackson is ahead on defense. If they are indeed deciding between these two, the question will likely be whether or not they believe more in Tatum's defense or Jackson's offense.
In free agency, the Suns will likely not be shopping at the top of the market, but there are still some potential fits for what the need in the mid and lower tier of players. Rudy Gay would be an intriguing buy low option, as he is a better overall offensive and defensive player than he is given credit for and might not cost too much coming off of injury, though of course there is obvious risk. Other intersting buy low options including restricted free agent Nikola Mirotic or veterans like Patrick Patterson and Jonas Jerebko, all three of which are better defenders than you might think.
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Friday, June 24, 2016
2016 NBA Draft: Phoenix Suns Draft Review
Current 2016-17 Roster
PG: Eric Bledsoe/Brandon Knight/Tyler Ulis
SG: Devin Booker/Archie Goodwin/John Jenkins
SF: P.J. Tucker/T.J. Warren
PF: Jared Dudley/Dragan Bender/Marquese Chriss
C: Alex Len/Tyson Chandler/Alan Williams
Free Agents
PF Jon Leuer
SF Chase Budinger
PG Ronnie Price
PF Mirza Teletovic
Who They Acquired
04. Dragan Bender, F/C Maccabi Tel Aviv
Despite their proclivity to search for quick fixes, Robert Sarver's Suns made the correct decision and drafted the best prospect available, despite the fact that he won't be able to step in from day one and be a starting level contributor. Bender is a wonderful prospect for the modern NBA and the exact type of player the high usage, guard heavy Suns need.
09. Marquese Chriss, PF Washington
The Suns traded their latter two of three first round picks and the draft rights to Bogdan Bogdanovic to move up from 13 to 9 and select Chriss, whom was in play starting at three and represented the clear end of a tier. Chriss is loaded with potential but really needs time to develop and learn the game. The physical talent and raw offensive skill are obvious, but the lack of feel and experience are just as well.
34. Tyler Ulis, PG Kentucky
Despite buzz that he would be a first round pick, logic won out and no one drafted a sub-150 pound guard with a first round pick. In the second round, as a clear backup or even third guard, Ulis is much more palatable. Ulis is the third point guard on the Suns roster and believe it or not, the fifth Kentucky guard on Phoenix's roster.
How They Fit
Bender is exactly the type of player the Suns need, a low-usage player that is completely content to do the little things, spacing the floor, passing, and defending on the perimeter while players like Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, Devin Booker, and TJ Warren soak up offensive possessions. Bender is an ideal modern NBA big man who can play in a switching defense, space the floor, and be a ball-mover offensively. His rookie year, Bender should probably just play 15-20 minutes a game as he develops his body and adjusts to the NBA game. Once he is able to play starters minutes, there is a ton you can do with Bender, including playing both sides of the pick and roll as either ball-handler or screener, where he can pop or roll. Defensively, Bender will likely need a strong rim protector next to him, because his strengths defensively lie more in his ability to guard on the perimeter and switch. Perhaps it will change as his body develops, but currently Bender is just average on the glass, so a center and wings/guards that can rebound would be a benefit. Alex Len has shown flashes of that level of rebounding and defense but the jury is still out regarding whether or not he can become that guy.
Chriss shares some of the same weaknesses as Bender, namely his troubles on the glass, so pairing him with players who are good rebounders like Warren, PJ Tucker, and Bledsoe would be advantageous. Chriss is so good getting up and down the floor that he would be a real threat in a uptempo offense where he can get out and run. Chriss needs to develop his feel, instincts, and polish but the flashes he gives show a forward that can attack off the dribble and shoot from the outside. He could be a devastating pick-and-roll player due to his smooth athleticism and explosiveness as a roll-man or popping for a jumper, once his jumper get consistent. Further away yet is an ability to score in isolation, the tools are definitely there but serious refinement is needed going forward as he learns actual moves and builds his experience. All of this might be a few years away, but the reward of patient development could lead to a devastating offensive player with serious switchability on defense. Chriss might spend most of his time in the D-League, as he probably won't be ready for the big team quite yet, especially considering his very high foul rate. The question of long-term fit with Bender and Chriss comes down to whether or not Bender can play center eventually, which will likely be determined by how his body fills out. Still, as more and more teams turn to small-ball lineups, it's hard to see Bender being punished too severely but a lack of strength, especially since if you have Bender and Chriss, you are probably switching everything anyways so that would mitigate many of those issues.
Ulis is a player tailor made for backup or third point guard because he is too physically small (not just short, small) to be effective against starters, but his ability to run pick-and-roll means that when he is on the floor you are going to have an effective offense, even if he really struggled to defend anyone with size. If Knight isn't traded and Ronnie Price is brought back, I would keep Ulis in the D-League for much of the season so he can build chemistry with Chriss. Defensively, Ulis defintely gives tremendous effort but 5-10, 150 he is little better than a traffic cone in the NBA, though he is good picking up steals. You'd want to play a big guard with Ulis to cover up but his utter lack of size and strength would hurt your ability to switch. The question with Ulis is how his intangibles, his leadership and work ethic, can have an affect, if any.
What They Need Going Forward
First and foremost, the Suns need to solve their logjam at center and guard, Alex Len and Tyson Chandler are completely redundant and cannot be played together. Whether by trade, buyout, or stretch it is time for Chandler to move on, presumably to the contender he desires. If Chandler is moved, Alan Williams should be given his shot as the backup, but the Suns should still look for depth, particularly an athletic big that can move and defend the rim. At guard, the Suns have four players that are best with the ball in the hands and a fifth, Devin Booker, that will need plenty of possessions himself. Whether it's Goodwin, Knight, or even Bledsoe, the Suns need to find balance to their roster and get some lower usage wings to compliment their ball-dominant players. At small forward, the Suns have two guys who are probably better at power forward and might not be starter quality, while at power forward there is only Chriss and Bender, neither of whom are ready to play starters minutes. So either the Suns need to move Tucker and Warren to power forward and acquire a small forward or they need to find a power forward. Even with Warren and Tucker there, depth will be needed at both spots. Phoenix signed Jared Dudley to a reasonable deal that will likely have him playing power forward, but they could use another combo forward, perhaps Maurice Harkless. To maximize their current roster and help their young players the most, Phoenix should look for shooters at the forward spots that can create space for Len posting up and their ball-dominant guards.
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Sunday, July 7, 2013
Free Agency + Trade Reviews
New Orleans receives Jeff Withey and Tyreke Evans, who signs for 4 years, $44 Million
Sacramento receives Greivis Vasquez and two second round picks
Portland receives Robin Lopez and Terrel Harris
This trade works out for all sides, with each team acquiring talent that fits their needs. For New Orleans, they get the best player in the deal in Evans, who finally got his game back on track last season. Evans is still a dynamic scorer who can play three positions, but he also needs to learn to play well with others. As a super-sixth man, Evans fits nicely on this roster and the five man group of Evans, Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, and Anthony Davis has a lot of versatility and potential. The money is a lot, but New Orleans had to overpay a little so Sacramento didn't match, and they are paying a little for potential as well, but if Evans reverts to his year 2 and 3 performance, this deal could look ugly down the line. Not to be overlooked in this deal is Jeff Withey, who is a better rim protector than Lopez and should be able to basically replace his production at a cheaper price tag, though in a lesser role. The Kings, who needed to move on from Evans anyway, did a good job getting something out of the deal. Not only that, Sacramento got a player perfect for their team and one who should help them rebuild their culture. Greivis Vasquez is a pass first point guard that plays with tremendous passion and leadership, exactly the kind of player Sacramento needs to get the ball to DeMarcus Cousins and Ben McLemore. Also, he is in the last year of his deal, so if things don't work out, there is no long term investment. Also, the second round picks shouldn't be under-estimated in value, it's the best way to get ultra-cheap talent. For Portland, they were able to fill arguably their biggest need by landing a solid, if unspectacular starting center in Robin Lopez, who still has two years left on his deal. Lopez is important because it gives Meyers Leonard more time to develop without the pressure of being a starting player and playing a lot of minutes. All in all, this deal makes every team better, with only New Orleans taking on any kind of a risk.
This is one of the weirder signings so far in free agency, but in a lot of ways it makes sense. Charlotte has been unwatchable for quite a while and continue to get worse. If they keep on this path, stinking and taking lottery picks that may or may not pan put, what few fans that still go to games will be fed up. Charlotte needs to put a semi-watchable team on the floor or else they'll risk losing fans and maybe the franchise. However, I'm not sure overpaying Al Jefferson was the way to go. Jefferson is the best low-post scorer in the league, something Charlotte could certainly use, but they're giving a ton of money to a player that isn't a very good defender and who's upside makes you slightly better but not enough sniff the playoffs. Charlotte risks moving into the territory of missing out on top draft picks, but not making the playoffs, somewhere you don't want to be. Jefferson actually fits pretty well on Charlotte however, especially of Cody Zeller can become a perimeter 4 to space the floor for Jefferson in the low post. Bismack Biyombo, as limited offensively as he is, should help some with Jefferson's defensive issues.
Utah receives Richard Jefferson, Andris Biedrins, Brandon Rush, a 2014 and 2017 1st Round Picks and several 2nd round picks
Golden State receives Kevin Murphy
This is purely a salary dump for Golden State, to clear room so they can sign Andre Igoudala. Brandon Rush was a big part of the Warriors 2011-2012 season, but was out all of last season with a knee injury and didn't figure into their long term plans. The Jazz need another 2 guard, and if Rush is healthy will be a solid compliment to Alec Burks, particularly if he keeps up his 41% career 3-point shooting. Biedrins and Jefferson have no on court value and I doubt that either gets any playing time in Utah. All three total $24 Million in expiring contracts, which is the incentive for Utah taking them on. These contracts can be used as trade chips, or kept so Utah can have a ton of cap space next summer. However, this also means that Utah is pretty much punting on this season, building around the core of Derrick Favors, Trey Burke, Gordon Heyward, Enes Kanter and their two draft picks in next years loaded draft, one of which may be very high.
After clearing up all that cap space, the Warriors signed Andre Iguodala with the new space. Iguodala is a good fit on this team, as he won't have to be primary offensive player, but can focus on what he does best and really just be a third or fourth scoring option. Iguodala is an elite perimeter defender, capable of guard 1s, 2s, and 3s while also rebounding well for his position. Offensively, Iguodala is an elite finisher, especially in transition, who also has the ability to play point forward do to his ball handling and exceptional court vision. I love the idea of Iguodala with elite shooters in Klay Thompson and Steph Curry because he will be able to create shots for them. When he is on the floor, Iguodala should immediately upgrade the Warriors defense, and if used properly, their offense as well. The biggest issue with this signing is that it means neither Jarrett Jack or Carl Landry will be brought back, leaving them with essential a bench of second year forwards Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes, along with rookie guard Nemanja Nedovic. Andrew Bogut and Curry, two very injury prone players, are without any kind of proven backup. Filling out a solid bench, while also finding a backup point guard and center that can step in and start when needed will be challenging but necessary. One option is trading David Lee for pieces and moving Harrison Barnes into the starting lineup at power forward.
Though it will recieve a lot of criticism, the deal works if it is Detroit's intention is to bring Andre Drummond off the bench, starting Smith at power forward and playing a shooter like Kyle Singler at small forward. That would give them a deadly three man rotation in the frontcourt, and while they couldn't close games with those three on the court, Drummond's free throw problems make it difficult for him to play then regardless. If that's the case, this is still an over pay, but not the worst move in the world. If they intend to play significant minutes of Smith, Drummond, and Greg Monroe on the floor however, I really question it. Playing those three together will cause serious spacing issues and would force Smith, who's biggest problem is he is a bad jump shooter who loves to shoot, into taking jumpers. The risk on this deal isn't as big as when they signed Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon, who ended up being unplayable due to on court deficiencies because Smith is still a good player and should remain on for the who length of the contract. The risk is that the pieces won't fit and Detroit won't get the most out of a significant investment.
The Bucks are continuing their frustrating trend of being stuck in the middle of bottoming out to re-build and being any kind of serious contender. In the past 5 years, Milwaukee has won 38, 31, 35, 46, and 34 games and actually done a good job drafting, but never getting a real franchise changer because they always pick in the late lottery/mid-first round. Signing O.J. Mayo seems to be putting them into a holding pattern once again. I actually really like Mayo as a player, provided he is put in the right role, but what is the upside here? Mayo isn't going to make them go enough to contend, but will likely help them be too good to get a top pick. Mayo is a better player than Monta Ellis and it isn't close, so Bucks fans can take solace in that. I could be wrong about all this, but the Bucks have been throwing money at players like Mayo, Drew Gooden, John Salmons, and Ersan Ilyasova without much to show for it.
I really hope there is a trade coming, or else this deal makes so little sense. Zaza Pachulia is a solid backup center, but so are Gustavo Ayon and Ekpe Udoh, and for much cheaper. Even if both are traded, this is a lot of money to pay an offensively limited 29 year-old that plays the same position as your best player. I'd say that I don't know what the Bucks are doing, but they have shown a consistent trend of questionable moves and mediocre results.
Probably the best signing this offseason, the Hawks get one of the most underrated players in the league for a good price that doesn't lock them in too deep. Paul Millsap and Al Horford will comprise a very skilled and tough pair of bigs who can both score inside and out, rebound, and play above average defense. Millsap will only be 30 when this deal expires, so he's got another big contract in him. I like the direction the Hawks are going, and am a believer in their new coaching staff. My concern with this team is that they struggled last season to draw fouls, fourth worst in the league, and Millsap will only help some with that. They also could use another wing and have the cap space to go get one, I like Andrei Kirilenko here, or Corey Brewer on a lesser deal.
Another solid move by Atlanta here, getting a good backup wing who plays very hard for a cheap deal. DeMarre Carroll isn't particularly skilled offensively, but he's got a great motor and is a good rebounder and defender. Carroll isn't going to light up the scoreboard or even get much recognition, but his drive and hustle is a good addition to any team. Carroll has overcome liver disease and fought his way into the NBA, and that kind of drive is inspiring to teammates, not to mention the on court benefits of his defense and energy.
This may seem like a lot of money and years to give to a 32 year-old three point specialist, but this deal isn't as risky as it appears. First of all, Korver is a valuable player who is one of the best shooters in the league but was misused last season, a mistake that the new Hawks coaching staff is unlikely to make. While his one-on-one defense isn't the best, Korver has made himself into a good team defender as well as a good passer. Atlanta's roster still has a lot of remodeling left to be done, but if they want to build around Al Horford and Paul Millsap, shooting will be crucial. The reason this deal isn't as risky as it appears is that Korver is likely to retain all of his skills for most, if not all of his deal. Shooting, passing, and team defense don't rely as much on athleticism, which Korver lacks already anyways, so even at 36 he should be an effective, if slightly over-payed, shooting specialist.
Dallas signs Jose Calderon for 4 years, $29 Million
I don't think this is what Mark Cuban had in mind when he blew up a Championship team with hopes of landing a superstar in subsequent years. After whiffing on both Deron Williams and Dwight Howard, the Mavericks are left with Dirk Nowitzki and a bunch of ageing parts. What makes this signing so weird is that Jose Calderon is just another ageing piece. The Mavs have two options: trade Nowitzki and bottom out in a very good draft year with a big free agent class next or go after the rest of this free agent class, the likes of Andrew Bynum, Monta Ellis, Corey Brewer, Jarrett Jack, or try to get a restricted free agent like Nikola Pekovic. This signing seems to point in the direction of the latter, as the Calderon alone isn't enough to make Dallas a contender, but also unnecessary for a team attempting to blow it up and rebuild. With Calderon turning 32 before the season, this deal is risky for Dallas, but like Korver in Atlanta, Calderon should be able to keep around the same level of performance. Calderon isn't a good perpetrator or defensive player anyways, so it's not like he'll lose that with age. What he does bring to the table is tremendous shooting, passing, and an extremely low amount of turnovers. Calderon and Nowitzki should be deadly running pick and pop, and on the court this deal makes sense, just not for the overall direction of the franchise.
Dallas signs Jose Calderon for 4 years, $29 Million
I don't think this is what Mark Cuban had in mind when he blew up a Championship team with hopes of landing a superstar in subsequent years. After whiffing on both Deron Williams and Dwight Howard, the Mavericks are left with Dirk Nowitzki and a bunch of ageing parts. What makes this signing so weird is that Jose Calderon is just another ageing piece. The Mavs have two options: trade Nowitzki and bottom out in a very good draft year with a big free agent class next or go after the rest of this free agent class, the likes of Andrew Bynum, Monta Ellis, Corey Brewer, Jarrett Jack, or try to get a restricted free agent like Nikola Pekovic. This signing seems to point in the direction of the latter, as the Calderon alone isn't enough to make Dallas a contender, but also unnecessary for a team attempting to blow it up and rebuild. With Calderon turning 32 before the season, this deal is risky for Dallas, but like Korver in Atlanta, Calderon should be able to keep around the same level of performance. Calderon isn't a good perpetrator or defensive player anyways, so it's not like he'll lose that with age. What he does bring to the table is tremendous shooting, passing, and an extremely low amount of turnovers. Calderon and Nowitzki should be deadly running pick and pop, and on the court this deal makes sense, just not for the overall direction of the franchise.
Dallas appears to be attempting to fill out their roster to at least be competitive this season. Devin Harris, once a promising star, has really fallen off in recent years and isn't a starting caliber player anymore. I do like his fit as a slashing two guard off the bench, and should be a good change of pace to the steady Jose Calderon, who isn't much of a penetrator. I think Dallas should blow it up, but if they want to go in another direction, this is a solid value signing.
After flirting with the Bucks and others, J.R. Smith the reigning Sixth Man of the Year, re-signed with the Knicks. I don't hate J.R. Smith as a player, nor do I think this is an unreasonable contract for what Smith provides. However, I hate his fit on the Knicks and I don't like the direction they are going with this roster. Giving prominent minutes to two ISO-heavy offensive players who don't play defense isn't how you win in today's NBA. New York is making themselves into a middle of the pack Eastern Conference team that maybe gets past the first round in the playoffs, but will be exposed by the top teams in the league on both ends of the floor.
This is an interesting deal because it is pretty big money for a team to give player who is best with the ball in his hands and plays the same position as the team's best player, who also is best with the ball in hands. I understand the rational behind the signing though, putting Jack in that super sixth man role who can backup either guard spots, on both ends of the floor. Also, and perhaps most importantly, it gives Cleveland a starting caliber point guard who can step in when the often injured Kyrie Irving has to miss time, much the same way Golden State used Jack to backup Steph Curry. Misguided or not, Cleveland wants to make a run at the playoffs, something which Jack will certainly help with. One other concern, Jack will be 30 at the start of the season, so this deal could go south towards the end.
With a new lease on life in the city of Sacramento as well as finally having new ownership and management, the Kings are ready to change their image and turn the franchise around. Drafting Ben McLemore and Ray McCallum, then trading for Greivis Vasquez was the first step, now they have brought in an underrated forward who has played for the organization before. Carl Landry is a hard working, high quality big man who is comfortable coming off the bench or starting. When ever he comes on the floor, Landry brings efficient offense, rebounding, toughness, and leadership, all things that the Kings can use. It might take a couple years to establish a new culture in Sacramento, but this is a good start.
New York re-sign Pablo Prigioni for 3 years, $1.5 Million
As much as I dislike the Smith deal, I like this one for New York. When you put two ball-stoppers like Smith and Carmelo on the floor, it's important to have ball movers on the floor, which is exactly what Prigioni provides. He is already 36 years old, so I doubt he plays out the length of this contract, while the threat of decline is minimal due to the style of Prigioni's game and his current age. The other think Prigioni brings to the table is three point shooting, when you can actually get him to shoot, he shot 40% from 3. This will be important for floor spacing, especially since Steve Novak was traded.
Houston re-signs Francisco Garcia for 2 years, $2.6 Million
As much as I dislike the Smith deal, I like this one for New York. When you put two ball-stoppers like Smith and Carmelo on the floor, it's important to have ball movers on the floor, which is exactly what Prigioni provides. He is already 36 years old, so I doubt he plays out the length of this contract, while the threat of decline is minimal due to the style of Prigioni's game and his current age. The other think Prigioni brings to the table is three point shooting, when you can actually get him to shoot, he shot 40% from 3. This will be important for floor spacing, especially since Steve Novak was traded.
Houston re-signs Francisco Garcia for 2 years, $2.6 Million
There was some market for Francisco Garcia, so the Rockets did well to him bring back. Garcia is a veteran, do-it-all forward with some good shooting ability, which will be crucial with Dwight Howard on the floor. What might have appealed most to Rockets about Garcia was his performance in the playoffs last season, where he defended Kevin Durant better than any other Rocket and shot a blistering 46% from 3. This signing was important because Houston was unable to re-sign Carlos Delfino, so Garcia will serve as the primary backup wing, barring another move by Houston.
The Pacers get one of the best, sneaky good signings of the off season by bringing in Chris Copeland to continue to bolster the bench. The bench for Indiana last season was abysmal, but now with the addition of Copeland, C.J. Watson, and the return of Danny Granger, this has become a strength. Copeland is a terrific offensive player who can play either forward position and really light it up, averaging a 8.7 points in just 15.4 minutes a game. I imagine he'll serve as David West's primary backup, bringing an added dimension of 3-point shooting to the team when he is one the floor: Copeland shot 42% from 3 last season.
I am suprised that Al-Farouq Aminu, who is coming off his best season as a pro and is only 22 years old, didn't have more of a market this offseason. As long as you know Aminu's limits as a player, he can be very useful. Aminu is not a skilled offensive player, he struggles shooting and dribbling, but is a very good finisher, particularly in transition. Where Aminu adds value is on defense and the glass, he is huge for a wing player and with terrific length and athleticism while learning more and more how to play NBA defense. With all the creators New Orleans has on the perimeter, plus Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson inside, Aminu won't have much pressure to produce offensively, other than what is created for him.
Portland signs Dorell Wright for 2 years, $6 Million
Portland signs Dorell Wright for 2 years, $6 Million
Like the Pacers, the Blazers continue to bolster their bench, which was a significant weakness for them last season. The Thunder also were reported to be after Dorell Wright, so I am surprised Portland were able to get him for such a good value deal. Wright is a classic 3-and-D wing player who's value is based on his shooting and defense, both of which are above average. Wright doesn't do a whole lot else, and isn't super efficient scoring in between the arc and the rim, but as a back up who can spread the floor and has the size at 6-9 to defend bigger wings, Wright has value.
The Clippers have done a great job finding shooters and wing players, but the still need to find some bigs and grit players. Matt Barnes is a combo forward who may end up being Blake Griffin's primary backup. Barnes is a decent shooter, but where he provides his real value is defensively, on the boards, and working off the ball. He is a good defender who can guard 3s and more 4s, while offensively he's one of the best cutters in the league. The Clippers are putting together a solid, deep roster for a title run, however they still need a couple more bigs.
What a great deal for the Clippers, reuniting Darren Collison with former teammate Chris Paul and giving L.A. their backup. Collison had his best season coming off the bench as a change-of-pace guard, which seems to be his best role in the NBA. With the second year a player option, this is basically a rehab deal for Collison to improve his stock after a disastrous season in Dallas, in which he was benched for Mike James and lost the trust of his coach. If Collison does well, he can opt out and seek a better deal, if not he will opt in and give it another shot.
Houston receives future draft considerations
In another attempt to clear mor cap space, the Rockets have parted ways with the very talented and unique Royce White. White, drafted 16th overall last draft by Houston, has yet to play a minute of NBA basketball, but is better known for his public clashes with Rocket's management. White is a huge point forward with tremendous court vision and passing skills. He can also score in the high and low post and rebound. Philadelphia is a second, and perhaps last chance for White, who needs to prove he's valuable enough as an NBA player for teams to deal with the other issues. Furkan Aldemir may never play in the NBA but is noteworthy because of the high level of motor and intensity he plays with as an undersized power forward.
Any time the Spurs sign a player it requires a second look due to their success rate with free agents and Greg Popovich's ability to get the most out of players. Marco Belinelli is up and down, seemingly from game to game, where he'll be on fire one night and missing wide open shots the next. This is a low risk deal for the Spurs, as Belinelli will be their third strong shooting guard. However the upside is that he plays well enough for Manu Ginobili to get plenty of rest during the regular season, in preperation for the playoffs.
This is basically a one year "show me" deal, as the second year is a team option. Earl Clark had a lot of offensive potential coming out of college, but hasn't ever really been able to put it all together on that end of the floor. However, as a 6-10, 225 with long arms he has the ability to be a very good wing defender, which will presumably be the role Cleveland has envisioned for him. If he delivers on that end or improves his offense, they can pick up the option, if not, they won't have lost much.
Tuesday, July 2, 2013
Early Free Agent Signings + Bledsoe Trade
Mike Dunleavy signs with the Bulls for 2 years, $6 Million
This is just one of those perfect fits that comes around every free agency, a veteran on a cheap deal going to a good team and fitting exactly into what they want to do. The Bulls needed a shooter, an upgrade over Marco Belinelli and they got a very good one in Dunleavy, who has become underrated over the years because of injuries and playing for bad teams. However, he's a 6-9 guard/forward who shot 43% from 3 last season and is a much improved defensive player who will only get better in the Bulls system. His shooting especially will be great for the Bulls' spacing and he is a good rebounder and passer. You can't beat the price either. The Bulls now Dunleavy, Luol Deng, Jimmy Butler, and Tony Snell at the wing position, a diverse and deep group of players.
This was bound to happen, Tom Thibodeau likes Mohammed and the feeling is mutual. Mohammed is cheap, knows the system, and is well respected by his teammates. However, if the Bulls view him as anything more than a third center, I disagree with this signing. Joakim Noah is injury prone, and having a backup for him that can also step in as a starter is crucial. Mohammed, who will turn 36 in September is simply too limited to be anything but an emergency backup and veteran mentor. I would expect the Bulls to make a run at another, younger center.
When the Wolves traded for Chase Budinger last season, it made a ton of sense, as Budinger was exactly the kind of shooter they needed, and he has experience playing in Rick Adelman's system. However, this is a lot of money for a player who only played 23 games last season due to an knee injury, and shot 41% from the field and only 32% from 3, which isn't going to cut it. If he's fully healthy and can regain the shooting form of his 11-12 season, this is a great deal and exactly what Minnesota needs, but if not the Wolves could be in line for another painful season.
Speaking of players familiar with Rick Adelman's system, the Timberwolves fix their issues at shooting guard and from 3-point range with an extremely efficient scoring guard who shot 43% from 3 last season. Martin doesn't draw fouls like he used to, but is still one of the most efficient scorers in the NBA. The Timberwolves got nothing from their shooting guards last season and were historically bad from deep, so Martin will certain help a Minnesota team that, if healthy, is snapping up to be a juggernautoffensively. Defensively however, they could struggle quite a bit, something Martin will definitely contribute to. Still, with all this offensive firepower, and pieces that fit very well together, the Wolves could make a run at the playoffs.
Given the price of this deal, it's hard to poke holes in it other than as a solid, if unspectacular, move by the Wizards. Maynor will be purely a backup for John Wall, but he may have to step in as a starter if Wall goes down with bumps and bruises, which seems likely based on history. Maynor is an ideal backup, a smart, pass first point guard who can hit a three and competes defensively. The problem is that the Wizards are building their offense around Wall's ability to penetrate and find shooters, something that Maynor may not be able to due simply because he isn't quick enough. Obviously, the Wizards can adjust on the fly, but stylistically it's not a perfect fit. However, if Wall stays healthy I like it.
This is the Wizards full mid-level exception (with year 4 only partially guaranteed) which may seem like a lot for Webster, but whether this deal works out will depend fully on whether or not Webster's health and improvements last season were real or not. Webster has always been a solid shooter but last season he took it to another level, hitting on 42% of his 3s, including 49% from the corners, which is perfect for playing alongside John Wall. He also performed well on defense and can be counted on the play hard every night. Also, at only 26, it's not impossible that he is simply entering his peak and this isn't a fluke. If all this goes right, it's a good deal for the Wizards. However, if Webster's injuries, particularly his back, crop up again or the shooting regresses to the 34% he shot in 11-12, then the Wizards gave significant money and years to a middling NBA backup.
The Pacers didn't ask much of D.J. Augustin last season, basically to play defense and shoot 3s, he was average at the later and perhaps the worst in the league at the former. Also, anytime a players 35% 3-point shooting is higher than their overall field goal percentage, it may be time to find an upgrade. C.J. Watson is an a good shooter, hovering around 40% the last three years and average defensively while not providing much else, but that is such a massive upgrade over Augustin, that is should help the Pacers woeful bench immensely. Next step for the Pacers: a backup power forward.
This was a no-brainer for Indiana, bringing back the steady and dependable David West, who is really the cog that makes their offense work. West is turning 33 this year, so normally a 4 year deal would be questionable, but West's game isn't based on athleticism and should continue to age nicely. West is just an overall great player, he may not get much credit, but he can score inside, shoot, rebound, pass, and is an above average defender. He might not keep up this pace though out the whole of the deal, but should provide value thought the length on the contract.
With memories of Splitter's poor performance against the Heat fresh on their minds, many may see this as a bog overpay. However, this is just about right for Splitter and the Spurs for a couple of reasons. First, Splitter may have had a bad finals, but he was crucial to defending Marc Gasol in the Western Conference Finals, and if Dwight Howard ends up in the Western Conference, he'll be useful defending him as well. Also, Splitter's presence in the regular season allows the Spurs to spell Tim Duncan more so than a lesser player. And it's not like Splitter is a bad player either, he posted a PER of 18.71 last season, and perhaps most importantly he has improved each of his three NBA seasons. Splitter isn't sexy, but he's a valuable player, particularly to San Antonio.
This is really a one year deal, as the second year is a player option that Blatche will almost certainly decline. Still it's a good value for the Nets, who needed a backup for Kevin Garnett to keep him fresh for the playoffs. Blatche is a knucklehead, but actually played pretty well in a limited role last season, posting a 21.98 PER and averaging an impressive 10.3 points in just 19 minutes a game. If he can keep that production up, he'll far out earn his pay. Plus the hilarity of Blatche and Garnett as teammates will be worth $2.8 million by itself.
Suns receive Eric Bledsoe and Caron Butler
Bucks receive two second round picks
While giving up a young talent may have been hard for the Clippers, it was absolutely the right move to trade him and they got a great deal out of it. J.J. Redick is a perfect fit for this team and should slide right into the starting shooting guard slot, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him closing out games over Jamal Crawford. Redick is obviously the main get here, but don't sleep on Dudley, who should start at small forward and is the ultimate glue guy. He does a little bit over everything offensively, is a solid defensive player, and is a 41% career 3-point shooter. Now what was a weakness last year for the Clippers, is now a strength, especially when you add to that rookie Reggie Bullock, who was one of the best shooters in this last draft. For the Suns, Bledsoe is the main piece in this deal, with Butler and his expiring deal a trade chip, not a building block. While I understand the desire to trade for Bledsoe, he also plays the same position as the Suns best player, Goran Dragic, so it's more like one step forward of a move instead of a big leap in the Suns rebuild. It will be interesting to see what the Suns intend to do with Dragic, if they want to play him alongside Bledsoe or trade for a piece at a different position. I would go with the latter, but that means they need to find a trade partner who is willing to pay for a point guard. As for the Bucks, they did well to get something for Redick, but they never should have traded for him in the first place, giving up a promising young piece in Tobias Harris for a couple month rental of Redick so they could get swept in the playoffs. The Bucks are a mess now and should go full rebuild around their young big men and forwards, and stay as far away from Brandon Jennings and Monte Ellis as they can.
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