Five Potential Free Agent Bargains

PG Patty Mills
Reason for Value: Over-saturated Point Guard Market
The NBA has more good-to-great point guards than ever before and with a good point guard draft bringing more lead guard talent into the league, there just isn't that many teams that need point guards any more and that will be willing to hand out money for them.
What They Bring to the Table: Bench Production
Mills has been one of the best backup point guards in the league for the last couple years, capable of lighting up the scoreboard when need be but also providing consistent offensive production night in and night out. A career .395% shooter from three-point range, Mills can be relied on to space the floor, run pick-and-roll and create offense for himself. While mostly known as a scorer, Mills has also improved as a playmaker for others, posting his best assist rate since 2011-12, 24.3%, which ranked 27th among point guards last season. For a playoff contending team looking for some bench scoring, Mills would be a perfect fit and probably won't cost too much, especially if he isn't signed by the time the point guard musical chairs (Kyle Lowry, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague, George Hill, etc) ends.

SF/PF Rudy Gay
Reason for Value: Injury risk
Gay ruptured his Achilles (a serious injury) in January and missed the remainder of the season. Despite the risk, Gay opted out (apparently he really wanted to get out of Sacramento) and bet on himself in the open market. As long as he is able to recover and gets a clean bill of health from team physicians, Gay could be a value signing because his market will be depressed due to risk-adverse teams. If not for the injury, Gay would be a top target in free agency.
What He Brings to the Table: Production and Potential
Despite his reputation as an empty stats player, Rudy Gay has become a much better all around contributor at both forward spots in the last couple years, including ranking in the top 15 in RPM among small forwards despite playing for the dumpster-fire Kings. Due to the injury and aging, Gay may fit best long term at power forward, once he is unable to chase wings around on the perimeter night-in and night-out. That ability to move to the 4 is also a nice backup plan as he ages, as some smaller players would lose more value once they aged. A power forward that can shoot the ball (.372%) and create his own shot off the dribble is a very valuable piece. Now, if teams are paying Gay like they would pre-injury, this isn't a bargain, but that seems unlikely given how risk-adverse most teams are nowadays.

SG/SF Thabo Sefolosha
Reason for Value: Perception
Once a player has received the label of "can't shoot" it is extremely difficult for them to shake it, even when they show improvements over time. Thabo Sefolosha has long been regarded as a great defender that doesn't bring much to the table offensively. The perception, plus his age (33) could
What He Brings to the Table: Inexpensive 3-and-D
Let's be clear, Sefolosha is not much of an offensive threat, nor is he an incredible shooter, but he is still a good enough defender, smart, agile, long, and impactful that he has value in a limited role as a a defensive stopper alone. He just needs to be "good enough" as a shooter to be a rotation player and, at least for the last two season, he was just that, shooting right around 34% from three both seasons, numbers that while not eye-popping are "good enough" when you consider his defense. I don't think Thabo makes sense for non-contending teams, but higher end teams that want to compete with the Warriors and need wing defenders, Sefolosha should be a quality, and inexpensive, option.

SG Ben McLemore
Reason for Value: Played for the Kings
Now I will be the first to admit that the Kings have been doing a much better job recently, however in the past their organization has been so unstable, with countless coaching changes, ill-fitting rosters, and managerial edicts that it is hard to evaluate some of their players in that context. After being drafted 7th overall by the Kings, Ben McLemore has been disappoint, no doubt but he is only 24 and hasn't really had the benefit of a stable environment. McLemore is likely to be cheap, very cheap, but still has some potential left to become the player his physical tools and skills suggest.
What He Brings to the Table: Potential 3-and-D
A tremendous athlete that can run in transition and finish high above the rim, McLemore hasn't quite figured out how to turn that athletic ability into defensive production, but the tools are still there, even if he isn't quite as quick laterally as the rest of his athleticism might suggest. One encouraging sign for McLemore is the steady improvement of his three-point shot, which peaked a .382% last season and could still improve. These tools and skills, plus a more cohesive environment and better coaching, are what teams will bank on when it comes to McLemore. Coming out of college, McLemore was already considered a potentially great shooter and defender who needed to work on his offense off the dribble, and while the jury may be out on his shooting and defense, it is safe to say their is little hope he becomes a better shot creator. However, the upside he has to be a 3-and-D role player at just 24 years old, at a low cost, is an investment teams should look into.

SF/PF Nikola Mirotic (restricted free agent)
Reason for Value: Poorly Used by Previous Team
Due to their asinine roster construction, the Bulls need floor spacing so badly that they basically made Mirotic as spot up shooter. While shooting is a part of Mirotic's game (one he needs to be more consistent at, but he's still a career 35% three-point shooter) he can do so much more and a better coached team will see that and use him more to his strengths.
What He Brings to the Table: Offensive Skill and Sneaky Defensive Production
Believe it or not, Nikola Mirotic actually ranked in the top 10 in RPM for power forwards, better than Kristaps Porzingis, LaMarcus Aldridge, Thad Young, and Serge Ibaka among others. Even more surprising is that he ranked better defensively than offensively. Though he can actually be a quality defender due to his smarts and mobility, Mirotic will make his money on offense. A versatile offensive player, Mirotic can handle the ball and drive to the rim, where he is a solid finisher and is good at drawing fouls. And yes, he can also shoot even if he has been more streaky than expected. Mirotic probably wants out of Chicago and the Bulls may not be eager to bring him back, but he is a restricted free agent, which makes things tricky but in the end, Mirotic was so poorly used that he could be gotten for a reasonable price and provide above-average offensive production once he is given more freedom.

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2017 NBA Offseason Preview: Phoenix Suns

Current Roster
PG: Eric Bledsoe/Tyler Ulis
SG: Devin Booker/Brandon Knight/Elijah Millsap
SF: T.J. Warren/Derrick Jones Jr.
PF: Marquese Chriss/Jared Dudley
C: Tyson Chandler/Dragan Bender

2017 Free Agents
Unrestricted
None

Restricted
C Alex Len
C Alan Williams
PG Ronnie Price

2017 Draft Picks
.199% at First Pick (2nd best odds)
2-23
2-55

Building Blocks 
For a 24-58 team, the Suns have a surprising amount of talented players. Devin Booker has had moments of offensive brilliance and averaged two more points per game (22.1) than his age (20) while TJ Warren bounced back from early season injury and played well.
Their rookies showed promise as well, Tyler Ulis proved he can hang at the NBA level as a backup point guard, 19-year old Marquese Chriss played in all 82 games and while still a far ways off, at least got valuable experience. Dragan Bender, also just 19, showed flashes as well, but struggled with injuries and didn't get much playing time, however there isn't any reason to thing he can't develop into a rotation player just yet. Even undrafted Derrick Jones Jr. gave some signs that he might be a player down the line.
In spite of his injury struggles (97 games played the last two seasons) Eric Bledsoe has been really, really good. However there is a real question as to whether or not Bledsoe, who will turn 28 in December, is really a part of the Suns future, and just how much they can get for him in a trade this summer if they decide to go in that direction.

Needs Going Forward
The Suns defense has not been good the past two seasons, finishing 26th and 28th in defensive efficiency. Aside from Bledsoe (who waxes and wanes) and Tyson Chandler, they don't have any good defenders on the roster. Ulis and Jones Jr. have potential on that end, but are rookies and bench players and while Jared Dudley is solid, he isn't exactly an impact defensive player. Booker is apocalypticaly bad defensively (93rd among SG in DRPM, 7th worst) as is Warren (77th among SF, 5th worst) and Chriss (94th among PF, absolute worst). Of those three, only Booker should really be a starter next season, so with Bledsoe, Chandler, and better defenders at the forward positions, improvement could come quickly.
Offensively, the Suns have obvious potential, as their most used lineup, the starters, have a 105.4 offensive rating, which would rank as 16th best in the NBA. And that is with a raw rookie in Chriss on the floor as well. Replace him with a more competent player and their offense could really take off, though of course defense would likely still be a problem with Warren and Booker on the floor, which is why two new starters seems like the best course of action, perhaps one free agent and one draft pick. The Suns aren't just a few pieces away from contending, but they could become competent with a couple moves.

Draft and Free Agency Targets
Assuming the Suns pick lands in the top 4, they'll likely have their choice between the top two forwards in the draft, Duke Jayson Tatum and Josh Jackson of Kansas. Tatum is the more advanced offensive player, while Jackson is ahead on defense. If they are indeed deciding between these two, the question will likely be whether or not they believe more in Tatum's defense or Jackson's offense.
In free agency, the Suns will likely not be shopping at the top of the market, but there are still some potential fits for what the need in the mid and lower tier of players. Rudy Gay would be an intriguing buy low option, as he is a better overall offensive and defensive player than he is given credit for and might not cost too much coming off of injury, though of course there is obvious risk. Other intersting buy low options including restricted free agent Nikola Mirotic or veterans like Patrick Patterson and Jonas Jerebko, all three of which are better defenders than you might think.

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5 Potential Bargain Free Agents

There is likely going to be crazy money thrown around the NBA world starting July 1st, but that doesn't mean that there still won't be some bargains on the market. Here is a starting five of potential bargain contracts that could turn into consistent contributors...

C: Tyler Zeller, Boston Celtics, Age: 26 (Restricted)

Zeller was excellent during the 2014-15 season, but fell out of the rotation the next season and is now entering restricted free agency with a real chance of moving teams, especially since the Celtics appear to be targeting the likes of Dwight Howard. In 2014-15, Zeller played in all 82 games and averaged 17.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 2.4 assists per 36 minutes, shooting .549% from the field and .823% from the line. Zeller's best attributes are his ability to run the floor and be a high efficiency finisher in the pick-and-roll. He probably isn't good enough defensively to be a full-time starter, but could be a high usage backup helping to anchor the offense of a uptempo, pick-and-roll heavy second unit. Brooklyn, Utah, Indiana, Charlotte, Washington, Dallas, Houston, and New Orleans are in need of depth at center and could look to Zeller as an affordable option with some upside.

PF: Jon Leuer, Phoenix Suns, Age: 27

Leuer doesn't look like an effective NBA player, and especially not an above-average defensive player (and not just because he is white) but in fact that is just what he is. Last season, Leuer played in 67 games and averaged 16.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists per 36 minutes and is a career .479/.375/.718 shooter. Even more impressive, Leuer has graded out as a plus defensively, despite the fact that he played in a train wreck of a team in Phoenix last season. He might not be a starting level player, but Leuer can be an integral part of an effective second unit. Leuer will basically be on a bargain basement contract and could fit any team that needs a little bit of shooting and solid defense from the big man spots.

SF: Dorell Wright, Miami Heat, Age: 30

Believe it or not, it has been 12 years since Dorell Wright entered the NBA and he has bounced around the league, including a year in China, but is still just 30 years old and can be a contributor as a shooter off the bench that has some defensive flexibility. For his career, Wright is a .365% shooter and while not a traditional wing stopper, is at least an average defender with the size at 6-9 to work in a switching style of defense. Wright could be signable for as low as the veteran minimum and be a shooter off the bench with at least average defense. There can never be too much shooting in the league, especially from the wings and every team in the NBA could use more. Wright may be limited offensively, but the skill he offers at the likely price is enough for any team.

SG: E'Twuan Moore, Chicago Bulls, Age: 27

Like all the players on this list, "solid" is the best way to describe Moore, he doesn't have a ton of upside but is good enough to be a versatile, impactful bench player. Moore is a combo guard that can play a little point but is probably best suited as an off guard that can function as a secondary creator. Moore is a career .369% three-point shooter and an average to above-average defensive player at both guard spots. Again, nothing flashy but Moore is a depth piece that can provide consistent guard play off the bench in a league that has fewer better than average guards than you might expect. Chicago shouldn't let Moore go, but teams like New York, Sacramento, Brooklyn, Orlando, Washington, Dallas, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Detroit, Houston, New Orleans, and many more could look to shore up their depth with a player like Moore, that is how broad his appeal is.

PG: Jerryd Bayless, Milwaukee Bucks, Age: 27

Bayless is a known commodity for the most part, a scoring combo guard that has never quite performed up to his talent but has quietly been a good backup because of his shot creation skills. Even more quietly has been the improvement of his jumper, which was once seen as a weakness but is now a weapon, to the point he shot .437% from three last season. While he is sure to regress from that number, there is no reason he can't settle in as an above-average shooter with the ability to break down defenses and beef up the scoring off of the bench of team that maybe has another distributor at a non-point guard position for an inexpensive price.

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2016 NBA Draft: Phoenix Suns Draft Review

Current 2016-17 Roster

PG: Eric Bledsoe/Brandon Knight/Tyler Ulis

SG: Devin Booker/Archie Goodwin/John Jenkins

SF: P.J. Tucker/T.J. Warren

PF: Jared Dudley/Dragan Bender/Marquese Chriss

C: Alex Len/Tyson Chandler/Alan Williams

Free Agents

PF Jon Leuer

SF Chase Budinger

PG Ronnie Price

PF Mirza Teletovic

Who They Acquired

04. Dragan Bender, F/C Maccabi Tel Aviv

Despite their proclivity to search for quick fixes, Robert Sarver's Suns made the correct decision and drafted the best prospect available, despite the fact that he won't be able to step in from day one and be a starting level contributor. Bender is a wonderful prospect for the modern NBA and the exact type of player the high usage, guard heavy Suns need.

09. Marquese Chriss, PF Washington

The Suns traded their latter two of three first round picks and the draft rights to Bogdan Bogdanovic to move up from 13 to 9 and select Chriss, whom was in play starting at three and represented the clear end of a tier. Chriss is loaded with potential but really needs time to develop and learn the game. The physical talent and raw offensive skill are obvious, but the lack of feel and experience are just as well.

34. Tyler Ulis, PG Kentucky

Despite buzz that he would be a first round pick, logic won out and no one drafted a sub-150 pound guard with a first round pick. In the second round, as a clear backup or even third guard, Ulis is much more palatable. Ulis is the third point guard on the Suns roster and believe it or not, the fifth Kentucky guard on Phoenix's roster.

How They Fit

Bender is exactly the type of player the Suns need, a low-usage player that is completely content to do the little things, spacing the floor, passing, and defending on the perimeter while players like Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, Devin Booker, and TJ Warren soak up offensive possessions. Bender is an ideal modern NBA big man who can play in a switching defense, space the floor, and be a ball-mover offensively. His rookie year, Bender should probably just play 15-20 minutes a game as he develops his body and adjusts to the NBA game. Once he is able to play starters minutes, there is a ton you can do with Bender, including playing both sides of the pick and roll as either ball-handler or screener, where he can pop or roll. Defensively, Bender will likely need a strong rim protector next to him, because his strengths defensively lie more in his ability to guard on the perimeter and switch. Perhaps it will change as his body develops, but currently Bender is just average on the glass, so a center and wings/guards that can rebound would be a benefit. Alex Len has shown flashes of that level of rebounding and defense but the jury is still out regarding whether or not he can become that guy.

Chriss shares some of the same weaknesses as Bender, namely his troubles on the glass, so pairing him with players who are good rebounders like Warren, PJ Tucker, and Bledsoe would be advantageous. Chriss is so good getting up and down the floor that he would be a real threat in a uptempo offense where he can get out and run. Chriss needs to develop his feel, instincts, and polish but the flashes he gives show a forward that can attack off the dribble and shoot from the outside. He could be a devastating pick-and-roll player due to his smooth athleticism and explosiveness as a roll-man or popping for a jumper, once his jumper get consistent. Further away yet is an ability to score in isolation, the tools are definitely there but serious refinement is needed going forward as he learns actual moves and builds his experience. All of this might be a few years away, but the reward of patient development could lead to a devastating offensive player with serious switchability on defense. Chriss might spend most of his time in the D-League, as he probably won't be ready for the big team quite yet, especially considering his very high foul rate. The question of long-term fit with Bender and Chriss comes down to whether or not Bender can play center eventually, which will likely be determined by how his body fills out. Still, as more and more teams turn to small-ball lineups, it's hard to see Bender being punished too severely but a lack of strength, especially since if you have Bender and Chriss, you are probably switching everything anyways so that would mitigate many of those issues.

Ulis is a player tailor made for backup or third point guard because he is too physically small (not just short, small) to be effective against starters, but his ability to run pick-and-roll means that when he is on the floor you are going to have an effective offense, even if he really struggled to defend anyone with size. If Knight isn't traded and Ronnie Price is brought back, I would keep Ulis in the D-League for much of the season so he can build chemistry with Chriss. Defensively, Ulis defintely gives tremendous effort but 5-10, 150 he is little better than a traffic cone in the NBA, though he is good picking up steals. You'd want to play a big guard with Ulis to cover up but his utter lack of size and strength would hurt your ability to switch. The question with Ulis is how his intangibles, his leadership and work ethic, can have an affect, if any.

What They Need Going Forward

First and foremost, the Suns need to solve their logjam at center and guard, Alex Len and Tyson Chandler are completely redundant and cannot be played together. Whether by trade, buyout, or stretch it is time for Chandler to move on, presumably to the contender he desires. If Chandler is moved, Alan Williams should be given his shot as the backup, but the Suns should still look for depth, particularly an athletic big that can move and defend the rim. At guard, the Suns have four players that are best with the ball in the hands and a fifth, Devin Booker, that will need plenty of possessions himself. Whether it's Goodwin, Knight, or even Bledsoe, the Suns need to find balance to their roster and get some lower usage wings to compliment their ball-dominant players. At small forward, the Suns have two guys who are probably better at power forward and might not be starter quality, while at power forward there is only Chriss and Bender, neither of whom are ready to play starters minutes. So either the Suns need to move Tucker and Warren to power forward and acquire a small forward or they need to find a power forward. Even with Warren and Tucker there, depth will be needed at both spots. Phoenix signed Jared Dudley to a reasonable deal that will likely have him playing power forward, but they could use another combo forward, perhaps Maurice Harkless. To maximize their current roster and help their young players the most, Phoenix should look for shooters at the forward spots that can create space for Len posting up and their ball-dominant guards.

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