Showing posts with label sleepers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sleepers. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

2017 NBA Draft: 5 Second Round Sleepers

Monte Morris, PG Iowa State (6-2½, 170) Age: 22
As a senior, Monte Morris posted an assist percentage over 30 (32%), a turnover percentage under 10 (7.5%), and a usage rate over 20 (22.8), benchmarks that only three players in NBA history playing more than a thousand minutes have reached, add in Morris' career three-point percentage of 38% and you get down to one player (Tracy McGrady). Obviously, that doesn't mean Monte Morris is going to be some NBA historical anomaly but it does show that he can handle and pass the ball a ton while turning the ball over very little. Morris is also a good three-point shooter and, despite his slight frame is a decent finisher (.659%) and two-point shooter (career .517%). With a 6-4 wingspan and good quickness but mediocre vertical explosiveness (33½ max vert), there are questions about how Morris will defend and finish at the NBA level and that is the reason he isn't a first round pick despite those special offensive numbers. However, as a backup point guard that can be relied upon to run a consistently productive second unit offense, Morris  should have a lot of takers in the second round.  Best Fit: Chicago Bulls, pick 38

Wesley Iwundu, SG/SF Kansas State (6-6¾, 193) Age: 22
A classic wing that can comfortable switch between the guard and forward positions, Wesley Iwundu has a lot going for him that modern NBA teams are looking for. The place to start with Iwundu is his physical tools: standing a shade under 6-7 and sporting a 7-1 wingspan, he has the size and elite length that give him numerous advantages on both ends of the court. Offensively, Iwundu has enough quickness and ball-handling to get to the rim quite frequently, something he did last season, shooting 43% of his shots at the rim, however he needs to improve as a finisher (.625%). While not a lead playmaker by any stretch, Iwundu has developed into a good and willing passer (.229 AST %). Pretty much a non-shooter before his Senior year, Iwundu made big strides in that area, making ,376% of his threes. This will be a key area for Iwundu to continue to improve at the NBA level, as with many prospects he may live and die by his jumper. Defensively, Iwundu needs to play tougher against bigger players but is still hard to deal with on that end do to his length and quickness. While Iwundu doesn't stand out in any one area, his ability to be average at many skills while having the size and length to comfortably play on the wing means he is a valuable commodity.
Best Fit: New Orleans Pelicans, pick 40

Tyler Dorsey, SG Oregon (6-4½, 183) Age: 21
As much as we are fascinated with other aspects of basketball, the single more important skill a player can have is to be able to create and make a basket. Tyler Dorsey can do that. Dorsey, much like the much more highly rated Malik Monk, excels at getting his won shot from a variety of places on the floor, though he prefers scoring from beyond the three-point line, taking over half of his shots from there last season (.514) and making them at a high rate (.423%). Though he is excellent as a catch and shoot player, Dorsey also does a good job creating space to get his shot up through step-backs and quick dribble moves. For three-point focused player, Dorsey was fair from two-point range (.513%) though his lack of great physical tools will likely mean he struggles at the rim, if he can get there. Dorsey's shot making (which has shown the ability to do on the big stage) will need to be backed up by some other skills, be it ball-handling or defense, that allows his to stay on the floor. His size says he defends point guards, but that is not a position he can play on offense, therefore he might fit best alongside another playmaker that doesn't play point guard, allowing him to guard point guards but play off the ball on offense.
Best Fit: Philadelphia 76ers, pick 46

Sterling Brown, SG/SF SMU (6-5, 225) Age: 22
Switching has become the new in-vogue NBA defense (and for good reason, it works) but the supply of players that are actually able to switch onto bigger or smaller players hasn't quite met the demand yet. Enter Sterling Brown (brother of former NBAer Shannon Brown) who the size, strength, and length to guard a number of positions defensively. With a 6-9½ wingspan, very good feet, lateral quickness, and a toughness to go up against bigger players both defending in the post and on the glass. Brown appears to be a player who can guard 1-4 on switches and even play some small ball power forward himself. Offensively, Brown's best skill is his jumper, which he has converted at a .451% rate over 284 career attempts. He is also a solid ball-mover and not a selfish player with a good IQ on the court. The rest of his offensive game, particularly off the dribble, isn't very advanced, but that isn't what you draft him for, you draft him as a versatile 3-and-D wing that can guard and play multiple positions. Think PJ Tucker but a better shooter.
Best Fit: Phoenix Suns, pick 32

Cameron Oliver, PF/C Nevada (6-8¼, 239) Age: 20
The first thing about Cameron Oliver that stands out is his physical frame, which looks exactly as a NBA power forward should, with the strength and length (7-1+ wingspan) to hold his own against the biggest NBA bodies. Oliver is also a explosive leaper, measuring a 39½ inch max vertical leap, a tremendous number for a player his size. Offensively, Oliver has flashed quite a bit of ability as a shooter, making .384% of 172 attempts from deep last season. His physical gifts also makes him a serious threat around the rim on lobs and putbacks. Defensively and on the glass, again his tools give Oliver a lot of potential and he was productive at Nevada (10.9 rebounds, 3.3 blocks per 40). So why isn't Oliver considered a lock first rounder? Well he is still a raw player that needs seasoning as far as his on court IQ is concerned to maximize his potential and his overall game just needs more polish. Due to this, Oliver is more of a project than many teams want to deal with to deal with, however based on the skills he has flashed and the physical upside, a smart team will be patient and season him in the G-League and reap the rewards.
Best Fit: Sacramento Kings, pick 34

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Saturday, March 18, 2017

2017 NBA Draft: Sleepers Outside the First Round

Every year there are players drafted outside the first round or signed as undrafted free agents become NBA rotation players and even stars. This draft will likely be no different. Here are some potential prospects that could fit the bill...
 
Grayson Allen, SG Duke (6-4, 195) Age: 21
It is sometimes difficult to remember that, despite the other drama surrounding him, Grayson Allen is still a pretty talented player. He is a good athlete and shooter, which is enough to make him interesting to NBA teams. Allen has grown as a playmaker, though not to a primary level and I don't buy that at the NBA level he will draw BS fouls with the flailing and flopping he specializes in, though he is fearless, which goes a long way. He has the tools to be an okay defender, but hasn't really put it all together on that end yet. Allen has been a mess in a lot of ways this season, but there is still a pretty intruiging package, for a second round pick, beneath all the noise.

Dwayne Bacon, SF Florida State (6-7, 210) Age: 21 
As a Freshman, Bacon was a good college player, but a questionable NBA prospect, mostly due to his inconsistent jumper. However, this season Bacon has improved his jumper, shooting .281% on threes compared to last years .343%. Due to his size, body, and athleticism, Bacon was already on NBA radars, not a little bit because competent wings are such a rare and valuable commodity. Bacon's jumper is crucial because it sets up his slashing game, where he has made the most consistent hay as a scorer. Defensively, Bacon has the tools to be above-average and maybe play a little bit of small-ball 4, think Jae Crowder-esque upside if the jumper continues to come along.

Jordan Bell, PF/C (6-7, 190) Age: 22
2016-17 Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, Bell is a modern NBA defensive player, equally comfortable defending on the perimeter and protecting the rim (2.2 bpg for his career). That defense alone should give him a shot in the NBA (especially if his 2016 Nike Basketball Academy measurements of 6-8.5, 227 are accurate.) Offensively, Bell is a really good finisher and has shown he has the ball-handling and passing acumen to not be a negative when he gets the ball. Where he has really shown promise is as a shooter; Bell hasn't stretched it out to three yet but he shot a very good .455% on two-point jumpers and .724% from the free throw line. Obviously, he'll never be a force on that end but the question is whether he can be good enough to let his defense play. 
Jaron Blossomgame, SF/PF (6-7, 215) Age: 23
Blossomgame was projected as borderline first-round pick last year but he decided to return to school and this year he is... a borderline first round pick. Given how his jump shooting has regressed (.441% from three to .255%), it is a testament to Blossomgame's overall game that he has remained pretty steady as a prospect. Blossomgame is a super athlete with a tough off-the-bounce game and excellent finishing skills. His path to the NBA may be at the power forward position, where he will have a quickness advantage but also has the rebounding and shot-blocking skills to do some of the big man things as well.

Dillon Brooks, SF/PF (6-5, 205) Age: 21
Bell's teammate, Dillon Brooks has been one of the best players in the Pac-12 for the last two seasons. There is no question he is a good scorer who can be efficient from everywhere on the floor, the question is whether he has the size and length to work as a combo forward in the NBA the same what he does in college. Even if measures out at 6-7, Brooks appears to have quite average length, nor is he notably explosive, therefore the margin for error will be quite low at the next level.
Bryant Crawford, PG Wake Forest (6-3, 190) Age: 20
While teammate John Collins has gotten all the hype and first round talk, his running mate at Wake Forest, Bryant Crawford, has been just as good this year. Crawford has excellent size and length for a point guard. A smart player and a pesky defender, Crawford provides the kind of versatile overall package of scoring, shooting, distributing, defending that you want in a backup guard with enough upside to dream on due to his age and physical gifts.
Jawun Evans, PG Oklahoma State (6-0, 175) Age: 20
Evans is an uptemp, transition, and pick-and-roll maestro with tremendous ball-handling ability, vision, intelligence, passing, and unselfish style; he also really shoots the ball well, a career .407 from three. The problem is that Evans is small, just around six-feet tall, and this shows up in his .504% shooting at the rim this season, though he does have a good wingspan for his size. Of course, being small isn't a death sentence, it just narrows the percentages chance of success considerably, however Evans has the skills you want in a small guard and I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see him make it in the NBA.   
Devin Robinson, SF/PF Florida (6-8, 178) Age: 22
Though just a Junior, Devin Robinson seems like he has been on NBA draft radars forever. It is easy to see why, Robinson is bouncy, has good size and length for a combo forward and has become an above-average three-point shooter in the last two seasons. The question is where does he play, Robinson is skinny and lacking the bulk to be a full-time power forward, yet is perhaps not skilled enough to be wing full-time. The answer will probably be bouncing between the positions depending on matchup. That isn't a huge problem, but it puts a cap on his upside.

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Hoop-math.com draftexpress.com & sports-reference.com/cbb/ are all feature invaluable information used in this post.