Preseason Award Predictions

Coach of the Year: Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat

It is a common opinion that Erik Spoelstra is an average (or worse) coach that the Big 3 made look good. However, in some ways it was the opposite, Spoelstra built an offense around their unique skills: a big who shoots, a guard who doesn't, and the worlds biggest point guard. He also organized a tremendous, swarming defense that was the backbone of 4 straight Finals teams. With LeBron gone and Wade hobbled, this will be the year that both Spoelstra and Chris Bosh get the credit they are due, possibly leading the Heat to 50 wins and a 3-seed. Obviously Gregg Popovich could easily win it again, as could newcomer David Blatt, or any number of coaches that exceed expectations. For example, if Frank Vogel gets the disasterous Pacers back the playoffs, he would have to get a lot of considerations.

Executive of the Year: LeBron James David Griffin, Cleveland Cavaliers

They can't give him the award, can they?

Most Improved Player: Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks

This award usually goes to players in their third or fourth season who have a big jump in minutes, however their aren't a ton of candidates that meet that criteria, so instead the favorites may be players fully integrating into a system or that add something to their game that takes it to the next level. Jeff Teague was great last year in Mike Budenholzer's offense, and should only improve with experience. Also, the return of Al Horford and the arrival of rookie Adeian Payne is sure to raise his assist totals and take the focal point of defenses off of him. Speaking of assists, another possibility to win the award is Timberwolves guard Ricky Rubio, who actually improved as a shooter last year, and surely can't be a dreadful of a finisher as he has in the past. (right?) The super-athletes he will play with this year (Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, Thad Young) will lend to an uptempo style and a ton of assists (he should lead the league in this category, or be close) and even if he just shoots 40-42% and finishes better, it will be a huge improvement. Some advanced stats love Rubio (10.76 RPM) while others aren't as high (+2.6 Simple rating, 15.35 PER). Rubio is hurt by the fact that Minnesota likely isn't going to win a ton of games this year and won't get a ton of national attention as a result. While I hate to be a sucker for pre-season storylines, if Michael Kidd-Gilchirst really has developed a decent jumpshot, it could be the piece that brings all the other great things he does together into a premier package.

Sixth Man of the Year: Taj Gibson, Chicago Bulls

The usual suspects like Jamal Crawford and Manu Ginobili will be in the running, but this may finally be the year that Taj Gibson, who unlike most Sixth Man winners also adds tremendous value defensively, will finally get some recognition. Pau Gasol may have replaced Carlos Boozer, but I would be surprised if Gibson wasn't still finishing games at power forward like he was last year. A sleeper would be Dion Waiters, if he is used off the bench, because he has talent because LeBron (and winning) tends to bring the most out of players, despite their flaws. If he is fully healthy Ryan Anderson is another under-the-radar option because he is so efficient and should get plenty of playing time. If Utah wasn't going to be terrible, Alec Burks would be another strong candidate.

Rookie of the Year: Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks

Rookie of the Year doesn't usually go to the best rookie, it goes to the one given the best oppurtunity to put up stats. Role is most important in this race. Jabari Parker will be the focal point of Milwaukee's offense right away and has the talent to excell in that position, scoring a lot of points with good percentages and grabbing a lot of rebounds. Nerlens Noel, Andrew Wiggins, Elfrid Payton, Marcus Smart will all get plenty of playing time, and could win the award if they adjust quickly to the NBA game. Dante Exum has a bright future but probably isn't ready to be a star right away while Julius Randle, Nikola Mirotic, and Doug McDermott have the ability to put up big numbers, but likely won't get the playing time. This is a tremendous crop of rookies and all will be worth watching closely this season, even though who just have limited roles right now. 

Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder

This award almost always goes to a big man, though wing defenders like Andre Igoudala and Tony Allen are deserving of recognition, a rim protecting center is usually the favorite. Serge Ibaka transformed himself an average or worse defensive player who blocked a lot of shots to an elite defensive player who still blocks a lot of shots. Joakim Noah, Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler, Roy Hibbert, and Dwight Howard also have a chance, as do young players like Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond. Of course, if LeBron James is able to focus more on the defensive end this season, he certainly has the chaps to win the award, but I doubt it ever happens.

Most Valueable Player: LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers

Kevin Durant deservedly won the award last season, but I am not sure he'll be able to top that performance, which may be what it takes to beat out LeBron for the award, who will still score 25-30 points a game with awesome percentages as well having his rebounds and assists up playing alongside Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love and in the Eastern Conference. It will also be interesting to see if he takes on a bigger role defensively now that some of the offensive pressure if off his back. LeBron is far from a lock and I could see Blake Griffin, Chris Bosh, Steph Curry, Derrick Rose, or even an epic season from Dirk Nowizki winning the award. Chris Paul will get a lot of love, but he has been the same (albeit awesome) guy the last couple of years and not come close to winning the award.

All-NBA First Team
G: Chris Paul, Clippers
G: Steph Curry, Warriors
F: Kevin Durant, Thunder
F: LeBron James, Cavaliers
C: Marc Gasol, Grizzlies

All-NBA Second Team
G: Tony Parker, Spurs
G: Russell Westbrook, Thunder
F: Blake Griffin, Clippers
F: Serge Ibaka, Thunder
C: Chris Bosh, Heat

All-NBA Third Team
G: John Wall, Wizards
G: James Harden, Rockets
F: LaMarcus Aldridge, Blazers
F: Kevin Love, Cavaliers
C: Joakim Noah, Chicago

All-Defensive First Team
G: Mike Conley Jr, Grizzlies
G: Andre Igoudala, Warriors
F: Kawhi Leonard, Spurs
F: Serge Ibaka, Thunder
C: Marc Gasol, Grizzlies

All-Defensive Second Team
G: Chris Paul, Clippers
G: Tony Allen, Grizzlies
F; LeBron James, Cavaliers
F: Tim Duncan, Spurs
C: Joakim Noah, Bulls

All-Rookie First Team
G: Elfrid Payton, Magic
G: Marcus Smart, Celtics
F: Andrew Wiggins, Timberwolves
F: Jabari Parker, Bucks
C: Nerlens Noel, Sixers

All-Rookie Second Team
G: Dante Exum, Jazz
G: Nik Stauskas, Kings,
F: Doug McDermott, Bulls
F: Julius Randle, Lakers
C: Noah Vonleh, Hornets

What do you think? Who will take away the big awards this season?

Follow me on Twitter @double_tech

He's back!

The buzz after last night's Bulls-Knicks game was all about Derrick Rose. Playing in his first game at home in over a year, Rose struggled for much of the night, but hit the game winner in dramatic fashion. However, there was another return last night, the return to form of Tyson Chandler. After winning Defensive Player of the Year in 2011-2012, Chandler battled through a debilitating bulging disk injury, missed 16 games, lost weight and wasn't nearly the defensive force he had been in previous years. New York was actually better on defense with Chandler off the court last season (.513 eFG on to .502 off) while in his DPOY season, he and the team were much better on that end (.480 on, .493 off). However, in the Knicks opening night game against the Bucks, and even more so against the Bulls, Chandler looked back to elite defensive form, almost always in the right spot, making life particularly tough for Rose who had to contend with his long arms and massive frame all night. Chandler blocked four shots, but hasn't put up the huge block numbers you expect from a top defensive center, never averaging more than 1.8 blocks a game. Instead, Chandler protects the rim with size and elite positioning. Another benefit of this is it keeps his fouls down while allowing him to draw more offensive fouls on opponents. Also, so far this season he has looked like his old self defending pick-and-rolls, which is crucial in today's NBA that uses that as its bread and butter. At least so far, the Knicks offense doesn't look as potent as last years, which means they may have to lean more on a their defense, to which Chandler is crucial. Chandler is almost a lock to miss some games with injury, he's played 80 games exactly once in twelve seasons and has averaged 63 games the last five.* What matters is that he is healthy enough to play at a high level when he does plays and can play at that level in the playoffs. The Knicks, who have floundered in the playoffs the last two seasons, are resting their hopes on it.

Some more thoughts on Bulls-Knicks:

While he isn't as crucial of a player as Chandler, Taj Gibson also looked like he was back in top form after battling a knee injury and missing 17 games last year. Gibson frequently closes out games for the Bulls because he is an elite defender at the power forward position. A healthy Gibson means a lot to the Chicago bench and crunch-time lineups. 

Rose really struggled from the field, but he was getting where he wanted for the most part, he just needs to get everything back in rhythm as he regains his elite finishing ability. It will also help when he starts drawing more fouls, the referees were letting quite a bit of contact go uncalled for some reason. If Rose looks this way in game 40, I might worry. In game 2, he is in good shape.

I liked the posting up of Jimmy Butler the Bulls were doing, at 6-7, 220 he has a distinct size advantage over most two guards. Chicago should get some easy buckets this way, whether though Butler in the post or action off of it.

It was nice to see Andrei Bargnani his some shots, if he can regain his stroke (but mostly his confidence) it should help the Knicks offense, his defense and rebounding are still a worry but that is another reason why Chandler is so important to New York.

*Not including the lockout-shortened season in which he played all 62 games.

Follow me on Twitter @double_tech