Miami Heat Draft Review

Current Roster
PG: Goran Dragic/Tyler Johnson
SG: Josh Richardson/Wayne Ellington
SF: Justise Winslow/Rodney McGruder
PF: Josh McRoberts/Okaro White
C: Hassan Whiteside/Bam Adebayo

2017 Free Agents
Unrestricted
F Luke Babbit
F Udonis Haslam
F James Johnson
F Willie Reed
G Dion Waiters

Who They Drafted
1-14 Bam Adebayo, C Kentucky
The Heat went off the board a little bit for their only selection of the night, a "reach" though probably not to them, which is what actually matters, not what pundits think. That said Adebayo is an interesting selection for the Heat because a lot of what he does duplicates Hassan Whiteside, though he does have some other strengths that Whiteside doesn't and could make him a better modern NBA fit down the line. Adebayo's 243 pound frame and 9-foot standing reach mean he should be able to play center in the NBA, which is good because that is where his offensive skillset fits best, as a roll man and lob threat like Whitside (though without his desire to post up, thank goodness). While he has flashed a jumper in workouts, it is fair to be skeptical since he a) did it rarely in college and b) when he did do it, he was horrible at it, shooting 31% away from the rim and 65% from the line. Defensively, Adebayo isn't particularly impressive as a shot blocker, though he will run into them do to his length and athletic ability, nor is he at all a good rebounder, which is especially disappointing, grabbing only 14.3% of available rebounds at Kentucky (for reference, that would be tied for fortieth among centers in the NBA last season, Whiteside was third). One advantage Adebayo does have defensively over Whiteside is his ability to comfortably switch, which is a skill that makes him project to be a valuable NBA defender who can defend on the perimeter, unlike Whiteside who prefers to hang back and look for shots to block. The Heat would occasionally take Whiteside out of the fourth quarter of games last season and Adebayo could be the guy that gets those minutes down the line. Where the Heat will have to work with him, and this is something they do very well, is to get him to play hard more consistently, Adebayo has all the physical gifts in the world but his lack of effort at times is what caused his overall lack of production and the reason many weren't as high on him.

What They Need Going Forward
The Heat have two higher level players, Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside, and then five grit-and-grind-y, high effort guard/forwards that have some skills but are flawed in one way or another. All five of these players are good to great defensive players and they make up the backbone of Miami's defense. Basically, this roster is prime for an injection of a star or two, preferably at the forward spots. Power forward, in particular is a weak spot for the Heat, as Josh McRoberts and Okaro White are the only true 4s on the roster; neither should be starters or even perhaps even rotation players. The big fish they need to go after are Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap, and Gordon Heyward. I like the fit of Griffin especially, as he has a lot of familiarity playing with a Whiteside-esque player in DeAndre Jordan and would really add another dimension to their offense. Millsap would help them in similar ways, and while Heyward is more of a wing, he could work in combination with Justise Winslow and would instantly the Heat's best player. If they aren't playing in the top of the market, there are any number of power forwards they could look at to fill the hole at that position.

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2015-16 NBA Season Preview: Team Predictions

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

1. Toronto Raptors (1)

2. Boston Celtics (9)

3. New York Knicks (10)

4. Brooklyn Nets (14)

5. Philadelphia 76ers (15)

Why: Picking the Celtics to miss the playoffs was one of the hardest decisions this year, but I think they are definitively worse than the top 7 in the East and the Pistons are my pick, no matter how much of a long-shot, to have a surprise turnaround season. I actually think the Celtics are more likely to make the playoffs, but predictions are much more fun when you don't go with the most likely outcomes. The Raptors as the top overall team is a bet that improved defense and a weak division will lead to a lot of regular season wins.

Central Division

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (2)

2. Chicago Bulls (5)

3. Milwaukee Bucks (7)

4. Detroit Pistons (8)

5. Indiana Pacers (13)

Why: At this point, despite being (when healthy) the best team in the conference, the Cavs injuries are reaching absurd levels and it is getting harder to believe in any of their top 3 players to stay healthy, not to mention the rest of their roster and the Tristan Thompson affair. The Bulls will have some growing pains and be better than the fifth best team after the All-Star break. I love Indiana's coaching and think Paul George is a top 15 player in the NBA, but their frontcourt is such a mess otherwise and their defense could be a mess.

Southeast Division

1. Miami Heat (3)

2. Washington Wizards (4)

3. Atlanta Hawks (6)

4. Charlotte Hornets (11)

5. Orlando Magic (12)

Why: The Heat I think will pace themselves this season and try to be fully healthy come playoff time, but their starting lineup is so talented and for the first time in a while, they may have some legitimate depth. Atlanta is going to fall off, but not as much as some think, finishing sixth is more a vote of confidence in the improvements the teams above them made. If not for the Michael Kidd-Gilchrist injury Charlotte would have been my 8-seed, as is I think they will struggle to defend consistently.

Western Conference

Pacific

1. Golden State Warriors (2)

2. Los Angeles Clippers (5)

3. Phoenix Suns (8)

4. Sacramento Kings (12)

5. Los Angeles Lakers (13)

Why: The Clippers will still win a ton of games and could easily have the best record in the West, but I really doubt we'll see another 82-game season from Chris Paul. The Warriors are still the best team in the NBA, but injuries are more likely to bite them this season and perhaps a bit of a championship hangover, just enough to knock them from the top overall seed. 

Southwest

1. Houston Rockets (3)

2. San Antonio Spurs (4)

3. Memphis Grizzlies (6)

4. New Orleans Pelicans (9)

5. Dallas Mavericks (10)

Why: Both the Pelicans and Mavericks have the potential to make the playoffs, but injuries are already a huge problem and don't seem likely to go away. The Spurs are still probably going to play more for the postseason and not worry too much about seeding as long as they get home court advantage.

Northwest

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (1)

2. Utah Jazz (7)

3. Denver Nuggets (11)

4. Portland Trailblazers (14)

5. Minnesota Timberwolves (15)

Why: The Thunder are locked and loaded for a massive season with a healthy Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka and more depth across the board. Mediocre or worse teams I think are just going to be blown off the floor by this team. The Blazers might make this prediction look bad, but I don't like how their team fits together and could really be a mess on both ends.

Playoffs

Eastern Conference First Round

Raptors over Pistons

Cavaliers over Hawks

Heat over Bucks

Wizards over Bulls

Why: Chalk.

 

Western Conference First Round

Thunder over Suns

Warriors over Jazz

Rockets over Grizzlies

Spurs over Clippers

Why: Chalk again, but this year home court again makes the difference in Spurs/Clippers but with the Spurs advancing this time.

Eastern Conference Second Round

Wizards over Raptors

Heat over Cavaliers

Why: Let me be clear, I think the Cavaliers are still the favorite to reach the Finals out of the East, but predictions are more fun when you take chances and there is a distinctly non-zero chance the Heat are definitively more healthy than the Cavaliers come playoff time. Paul Pierce is gone, but the Wizards are still a bad match-up for Toronto and seem to have their number. 

Western Conference Second Round

Thunder over Spurs

Warriors over Rockets

Why: The Thunder when healthy have gotten the better of San Antonio, same with the Warriors and Rockets. Both series would be very close though.

Eastern Conference Finals

Heat over Wizards

Why: The Heat could make this look terrible if injuries really crop up but I believe in their coaching and talent.

Western Conference Finals

Thunder over Warriors

Why: This series, if it happens, would easily be my most anticipated event of the season. The Warriors are probably a better team, but I think home court and Durant would make the difference if things play out this way.

The Finals

Thunder over Heat

Why: A rematch of the 2012 Finals that lacks some bite sans LeBron, however it would still be a really fun series that ultimately has the Thunder finally winning the championship.

Again, these predictions are the most likely outcomes but they are a mix of probability, gut instinct, and some wildness just for fun.

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2015 Draft Review: Miami Heat

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Mario Chalmers/Shabazz Napier
SG: Dwyane Wade/Josh Richardson/Tyler Johnson/Zoran Dragic
SF: Luol Deng/Justise Winslow/James Ennis/Bill Henry Walker
PF: Chris Bosh/Josh McRoberts/Udonis Haslam
C: Hassan Whiteside/Chris Anderson

2015 Free Agents
F Michael Beasley (team option)
PG Goran Dragic (player option)

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Duke wing Justise Winslow 10th overall
The Heat benefited from the draft falling favorably to them, getting a perfect fit for their culture and needs. Justise Winslow isn't likely to become the future star some suggest, but he can be a high-level role player on a championship level team. Early on in his career, Winslow will probably not be a consistent threat from three-point range or creating his own shot starting out, but in Miami he can play off their other creators in transition and off the ball, until his offensive game develops more overall consistency. Where Miami will really benefit from Winslow is on the defensive end; Luol Deng (if he returns) is the closest thing they have to a lockdown wing defender so this year, which is a pretty important part of a contending team. Despite some of the noise in his shooting numbers and offensive creation ability, Winslow has always been and likely will always be an ace wing defender. He is athletic with very good lateral agility and strength, but most importantly Winslow is committed and focused on that end. On a different team, one looking for a number one or two option, Winslow might disappoint. However, in this situation, with potentially Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic, and Josh McRoberts all there to move the ball and get Winslow some easy shots, he should excel as a defender/hustle player with potential for more offense in a couple of years.

Drafted Tennessee shooting guard Josh Richardson 40th overall
The Heat got another great fit for their team in the second round with Josh Richardson, who is sort of a older, lower upside version of Winslow. He is a solid, likely league-average NBA shooter that is also a good, committed defensive player that has enough ball skills and passing ability to be a secondary playmaker in a second unit. That ability makes him a little more valuable than the average good, not great shooting/defending 3-and-D because when he catches the ball, he is a threat to penetrate and pass in certain situations, instead of just having to shoot or move the ball along. This will really work in Miami, that loves manipulating defenses with passing and dribble-drives.

What To Do Next?
Miami's first priority should be retaining the services of Dragic. Beyond that they don't have much cap flexibility to make any free agent moves beyond minimum deals, but they could get back a contributor by dealing Mario Chalmers or Shabazz Napier for another position in need of depth. Chalmers is an expiring deal so he should be easy to deal to a team looking for a back-up point guard that can shoot. Targeting another backup big man or wing would make sense.

A bonus trade sure to never happen
Mario Chalmers and Zoran Gragic to the Hornets for Marvin Williams

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2015 Draft Preview: Miami Heat

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Mario Chalmers/Shabazz Napier
SG: Tyler Johnson/Zoran Dragic
SF: James Ennis/Bill Henry Walker
PF: Chris Bosh/Josh McRoberts/Udonis Haslam
C: Hassan Whiteside/Chris Anderson

2015 Free Agents
F Michael Beasley (team option)
PG Goran Dragic (player option)
SF Luol Deng (player option)
SG Dwyane Wade (player option)

2015 Draft Picks
1-10
2-10(40)

Team Needs
Assuming that Goran Dragic, Luol Deng, and Dwyane Wade all opt-in or re-sign, Miami's starting lineup will be both set and stacked. However, depth is a real issue. James Ennis has potential to be a solid 3-and-D wing off of the bench if his shooting improves and Mario Chalmers is a decent backup point guard. But other than that... Chris Anderson will be 37 and Josh McRoberts is coming off of a torn meniscus, Considering Wade, Deng and Dragic's proclivity to get injured, Miami needs a better backup plan than Tyler Johnson, Henry Walker, and Shabazz Napier when the inevitable bumps and bruises come along.

Potential Fits
Miami is a team all-in on the next season or two, so they will likely be looking at players who can contribute right away, stick in a rotation, and step into the starting line-up in event of an injury. Looking at the players that will likely be available, Wisconsin power forward Frank Kaminsky is the most NBA ready; he can really shoot and is great handling the ball and passing. His ability to help you as both a high and low usage player is very valuable because he always be contributing. Kaminsky, however, does many of the things they are hoping to get from Josh McRoberts; though having multiple super-skilled big men is never a problem. If Arizona's Stanley Johnson falls to their pick, he would be another strong option as a backup and eventual replacement for Deng. Johnson also has the size to some play small-ball 4 but could guard many shooting guards as well, the kind of versatility Miami likes. Kelly Oubre of Kansas is more of a pure wing than Johnson, but he is more likely to be available and does a lot of things on both ends of the court. Oubre might not be as much of a day one contributor as Johnson or Kaminsky, but he has a higher upside. Kentucky guard Devin Booker's jumpshot will play from day one, and Miami loves shooters, but there are so questions about what else he can do. If Johnson is, as expected, off the board I think Kaminsky makes the most sense. In the second, they should target an NBA-ready role player to provide some inexpensive depth.

Mock Draft
10. Frank Kaminsky, F/C, Wisconsin
40. Norman Powell, SG, UCLA

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Miami Heat Draft Review

24. Shabazz Napier, PG Connecticut Sr. (6-1, 175)
There is so much going on with this pick, it will be one of the most interesting to follow in the next couple of years. First, there is a good story about LeBron loving Napier and wanting him on the team, but it really smells of the previous "GM LeBron" moves that Cleveland succumbed to, with disastrous results. This particular move is a generally a low-risk maneuver for the Heat, but trying to appease one player is usually a bad move if it comes to the detriment of the team. In that case however, it probably doesn't but it could be the first step down a desperate path that already killed on franchise's championship chances. Napier is an excellent fit in Miami, who need another player who can get his own shot and isn't completely reliant on LeBron to get them shots. He is probably an upgrade over Norris Cole and Mario Chalmers, though certainly not a sure thing because of Napier's size and the overall nature of his game as a shoot-first guard. Yes, he's made some big shots in college, but so did Chalmers and that made zero difference in this recent finals. Overall, I think this helps make the Heat better though, but I hope fans don't hold Napier up to be something he isn't.

Projected Roster
PG: Norris Cole/Shabazz Napier
SG: Dwyane Wade
SF: LeBron James
PF: ???
C: Chris Bosh

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Draft Review: Miami Heat

Second Round

James Ennis, SF Long Beach State (50)

The Heat only had one pick, but they made the most of it by taking a prospect perfect for their system. James Ennis doesn't have big upside, but he can do three things well: spot up, finish, and defend, which fits very well in Miami. If the Heat decide to she'd salary in the form of Mike Miller, Ennis could step in as a replacement.

Projected Rotation

PG: Mario Chalmers/Norris Cole

SG: Dwyane Wade/Ray Allen

SF: LeBron James/Mike Miller

PF: Shane Battier/Rashard Lewis

C: Chris Bosh/Udonis Haslem