Sunday, June 9, 2013

NBA Draft: Shooting Guard Preview

Tier 1: Lottery Pick
1. Ben McLemore, Kansas Fr. (6-5, 189)
One of the few premium talents in this draft, Ben McLemore had sustained periods of dominance throughout the season before hitting somewhat of a wall towards the end of the season. Still, overall he was one of the best players in the country and has prodigious talent. An elite athlete with a 42 inch vertical, McLemore is extremely dangerous in transition, exploding to the basket for highlight dunks. What sets McLemore apart from most super athletic guards is his terrific jumpshot; he knocked down 42% of his 3s while taking almost 5 a game. He needs to become a more consistent playmaker and ball handler, but the sky is the limit for McLemore.

2. Victor Oladipo, Indiana Jr. (6-4, 213)
Perhaps the best perimeter defensive player in the country, no one competes harder on a nightly basis than Victor Oladipo. He is undersized, but it doesn't matter because of his long arms and athleticism, he can guard wing players and create havoc defensively and on the offensive boards. Offensively, while he dramatically improved his shooting and is a good slasher to the rim, Oladipo is still raw and needs refinement to be an above average offensive player in the league. However the other things he brings to the table are so good, teams in the top 5 will be intrigued.

3. C.J. McCollom, Lehigh Sr. (6-3, 197)
As an undersized, high scoring guard from a small school C.J. McCollom is predictably being compared to Damien Lillard, but that's not fair to either. McCollom is a combo guard, not a point guard  while Lillard is much more of a point, but still a score first player. The difference is that Lillard played as a point guard in college and didn't have to make the transition. Making the transition will hurt what McCollom does best: score. He can score from all over the floor and should provide a nice punch of the bench ala Lou Williams.

4. Jamaal Franklin, San Diego State Jr. (6-5,191)
One of the players that will give Oladipo a run for his money as a perimeter defender, it's Franklin. One of the best athletes in the draft, he is quick, explosive and has a 6-11+ wingspan. He can defend quicker guards as well as bigger wings wings while not giving up anything on the boards, where he can dominate on the boards (9.5 a game!). Offensively he is a terrific slasher getting to the rim and has been improving his shooting. Franklin contributes so much to a team and is a high motor, high character player.

Tier 2: Mid-to-Late First
5. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia So. (6-6, 204)
A potential standout role player, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope doesn't have huge upside but can do a number of things that will really help an NBA team. First off is the shooting, Caldwell-Pope has deep, deep range and though streaky he shot 37% from 3 despite being forced to take a lot of bad shots on a bad team. Caldwell-Pope is also a good defender with the size and athleticism to defend on the wing. He is also a really good rebounder and high effort player. 

6. Sergey Karasev, Russia (6-7, 197)
Karasev isn't the defender Caldwell-Pope is, but he is a better shooter and brings more to the table on the offensive end. Karasev is a good ball handler and passer who can make plays for others when he gets into the paint. Karasev is young at only 19, has a lot for experience playing professionally and for the Russian national team in the Olympics alongside other NBA players. He should be able to step in as a rookie and help right away, yet still have upside.

7. Alex Abrines, Spain (6-5, 195)
One of the bigger sleepers in this draft, Alex Abrines is very talented and plays in one of the best leagues in Europe, but he isn't being considered for a high pick because of his lack of track record. Abrines doesn't get a ton of minutes, but is always productive when he does. Abrines is a very good shooter and is also athletic and can get to the rim. Abrines has a high basketball IQ and at only just 20, is full of upside.



8. Glen Rice Jr, NBDL (6-6, 211)
Teams coveting Caldwell-Pope that can't get him should look at Glenn Rice Jr. If not for some character red-flags, Rice Jr. might go higher than him because of his shooting and defense. He is a very good shooter and should be able to space the floor as well as slash to the rim and score in transition. If you we're going to draw up a wing defender, he'd look a lot like Rice Jr: big and strong, with long arms and athleticism (40.5 inch vertical). 


9. Allen Crabbe, California (6-6, 197)
If Allen Crabbe put the effort in on defense he'd be a lottery pick because his offensive game is very good. He is a very good shooter and versatile scorer who averaged 18.4 points a game. Crabbe is also a good athlete and has great size and length for a shooting guard. The concern is his body language on the court when things don't go his way and very inconsistent defensive effort.

10. Tim Hardaway Jr, Michigan Jr. (6-6, 199)
A jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none wing, Tim Hardaway Jr. lacks big time upside but can do a lotof little  things to help his team. Hardaway Jr. is solid shooter and could develop into a very good one over time. He is also a solid defender and good in transition. Hardaway Jr. played big minutes on a very good team and has  great bloodlines.

Tier 3: First Round Bubble
11. Archie Goodwin, Kentucky Fr. (6-5, 189)
A potential top ten pick at the start of the season, Archie Goodwin's stock has steadily fallen throughout the season to the point that the first round isn't a lock. Goodwin's lack of a jumpshot and poor decision were exposed, especially the latter as Goodwin was forced into more of a playmaking role. Goodwin is very explosive with the ball in his hands and has a ton of upside, but also a lot of risk.

12. Ricardo Ledo, Providence Fr. (6-6, 197)
One of the most interesting stories in the draft, Ricky Ledo sat out the whole season because he couldn't get eligible. There's no denying his talent, a big combo guard with an explosive first step, Ledo excels with the ball in his hands getting to the rim. Like Goodwin, he has a ton of upside but even more risk because of some of the same issues, plus some serious concerns that he might be a locker room cancer.


Tier 4: Second Round



13. Erick Green, Virginia Tech Sr. (6-3, 178)
A similar prospect to C.J. McCollom, Erick Green is a scoring combo guard through and through. He is very explosive getting to the rim and is really good in transition, while also being a decent shooter. Green can find teammates and takes pretty good care of the ball, but make no mistake any team that drafts him will be looking for a bench scorer.


14. Nemanja Nedovic, Serbia (6-4, 200)
Breaking the mold of the stereotypical European player, Nemanja Nedovic is an explosive athlete with a 41-inch vertical and tremendous quickness with the ball in his hands. However he is undersized for the 2 guard position and is not a great shooter, but teams looking for someone to stash might target Nedovic in the second.


15. Vander Blue, Marquette Jr. (6-5, 197)
Vander Blue made of the more interesting decisions to turn pro, he had a really good year, but his lack of shooting ability makes him a borderline prospect. Blue is athletic and learned how to play gritty defense at Marquette, but the lack of shooting is a real concern because he doesn't project to be a dominant scorer in other ways either.

16. Carrick Felix, Arizona State Jr. (6-6, 203)
Carrick Felix is a potential 3-and-D wing player, like most second rounders he lacks upside, but he projects as a good wing defender who can make corner 3s and rebound well from his position.

17. Brandon Paul, Illinois Sr. (6-4, 201)
Brandon Paul started the season on fire and rose his stock into the top half of the first round before cooling off for the rest of the year. Paul is a great athlete and shooter, but he's undersized and inconsistent.

18. Michael Snaer, Florida State Sr. (6-5, 201)
Another potential 3-and-D player, Snaer is a really good defender on the perimeter but needs to become a more consistent shooter to make it in the NBA, though he's solid overall. Snaer is a leader who plays really hard and has made a number of big shots in his career.

19. Khalif Wyatt, Temple Sr. (6-4, 212)
I really want Khaliff Wyatt to be drafted and at least make a Summer League roster because he's one of the most entertaining players to watch because of his unorthodox style. Wyatt is not a great athlete, he is undersized and not a good shooter, yet somehow he scores a ton of points against top competition.


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