Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Breakout NBA players

Atlantic Division: Avery Bradley, Celtics
Bradley is still recovering from shoulder surgery and probably won't be back until mid-December, but when he does he should be inserted right into the starting lineup. Bradley played limited minutes, but in the last month of the season he played 33 minutes and averaged 15 points a game on 52% shooting while playing some of the most tenacious defense in the league. Like seriously, this guy is already one of the best wing defenders in the league, he'll provides relentless ball pressure and is very hard to beat of the dribble with fast hands to pick up steals. If Bradley, with his motor and cutting ability can get Boston 2 or 3 easy shots a game and he continues to improve as a shooter, especially from the corner, and as ball handler, he'll be one of the better 2 guards in the league, his defense is that good.

Central Division: Tristan Thompson, Cavaliers
The 4 overall pick in the draft had an up and down season, combining powerful dunks and big blocks with bricked free throws and poor turnovers. Thompson was a tremendous rebounder (especially offensively, where he averaged 3.1 a game) and played some pretty solid defense, while drawing fouls in bunches (almost 5 FTA a game) and converting close to the basket. All of those things should continue, but he needs to improve on his shooting and post play. Thompson shot poorly from the outside and even worse from the line (55%). If Thompson can improve that to 65%-70% while taking smarter, closer shots and waiting to be set up by teammates instead of force action, he could become a solid starter due to his other abilities.

Southeast: Nikola Vucevic, Magic
The Magic didn't get much for Dwight Howard, but one of the young pieces they got back has a chance to become a decent NBA starter, and since he's a center, that means Nikola Vucevic will be a valuable NBA player. With Dwight Howard gone and the only other true center on the Magic roster being a second round pick, Nikola Vucevic should get a lot more playing time than he did in Philadelphia. If Vucevic gets more playing time, he really needs only to become more consistent, polish out his game, and go into the post more. Vucevic is a very good rebounder and can hit an outside jumper, with even 3-point range, but he needs to spend more time in the post. Being on an Orlando team with a bunch of other jump shooters will hopefully cause Vucevic to go into the post more, which will open up the rest of his game and increase his efficiency as a shooter.

Pacific Division: Goran Dragic, Suns
Goran Dragic perhaps had his breakout season last year, but it was only for the last month of the season, and given Dragic's up-and-down nature, he'll have to do it consistently for a full season to take the next step. The reason Dragic had success in Houston last season was that played in a system that suited him: a system that gave him the ball, played up-tempo, and let him make all the plays. Luckily for Dragic, he's now in Phoenix which plays the same type of system, heavy on pick and roll and surrounding Dragic with shooters. The key to consistency for him is to cut down on the turnovers and continue to shoot well from 3. If Dragic can keep players from going under screens on the pick and roll, he should be able to pick opponents apart in a Steve Nash-lite type of way.

Southwest Division: Kawhi Leonard, Spurs
My original choice for the Southwest Division breakout player was Chandler Parsons, but given the fact that the Rockets just added another ballhandler/scorer in James Harden, I don't think Parsons will get enough usage to be the player he can be given the opportunity. Kawhi Leonard is another likely breakout candidate for two reasons: talent and opportunity. First, the talent: Leonard is a big, strong wing player with long arms, huge hands, and explosive athleticism, because of that he's a very good rebounder and finisher at the rim who can overpower defenders. Where Leonard needs to improve is as a shooter, where he shot 38% from 3, but only 29% on long 2s; it's one thing to hit open corner 3s like Leonard did in the Spurs system, but quite another to be a go-to scorer. As for opportunity, Leonard should have a bigger role in the San Antonio offense as the older Spurs stars rest more and hold back for the playoffs.

Northwest Division: Alec Burks, Jazz
For some unknown reason, the Jazz continued to play the Zombiefied corpse of Raja Bell despite having a young talent like Alec Burks on the roster, who produced whenever given the chance. Hopefully, the Jazz have learned from the mistake and will give Burks the Sixth Man role and plenty of playing time. Burks is dangerous weapon because he uses his quickness, explosiveness, and ball-handling  to get to the rim, finish, and draw a ton of fouls, that won't go away and he should be a league leader in fouls drawn on a per minute basis. However, like all young players Burks needs to improve as a shooter both from 3 and in-between, but given that his stroke looks good and he shot well from the line as both a rookie and in college, there's hope that it will just take a little bit of work before the shots start falling.

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