The 2012 draft is going to be the year of the skilled big man. Both Perry Jones of Baylor and Anthony Davis combine tremendous size with the ability of a 2 guard. Obviously Jones, a Sophomore, has an edge because he has a year of NCAA experience under his belt, but Freshman Davis has the advantage of a clean slate with which to work. James McAdoo and Quincy Miller are two other skilled big men likely to enter the 2012 draft, but Jones and Davis are the best of the best.
Size
Jones: Perry Jones looks every bit of 6-11, 235 pounds and has done a good job bulking up since coming to Baylor. He also has the frame to add 10-15 more pounds without affecting his game. Add to that a 7-2.5 wingspan and you've got a prototype power forwards size.
Davis: Anthony Davis is listed at 6-10, but may be closer to 6-9. However, after recently growing 7-inches, he may still be getting taller. His lack of weight (208 pounds) is worrisome, but he's got a great frame and should be able to add a lot more muscle, it's simply a matter of want to. If he can get up to 220 by the draft combine, it'll be a good sign that he's willing to put in the work to get to a weight that can compete on the NBA level. Davis has also be measure with a ridicules 7-4 wingspan, which helps him play bigger than his height.
Edge: Jones at this point, but if Davis maxes out like he can, it'll be him.
Athleticism
Jones: Jones is special athlete. He explodes off the floor off of one foot or two and has a great second bounce. He also moves like a guard with no stiffness to his game at all. Overall, Jones is a very fluid player with as much body control as any player his size in the NBA. He's also got great speed and flies up and down the court.
Davis: Davis is equally as fluid an athlete, playing with none of the awkwardness you'd expect from a player who grew 7 inches in a summer to go from a 2 guard to a big man. He, too, runs the floor very well and is hard to handle in that respect because he'll almost always beat his man down the floor. Davis is an explosive leaper, but isn't in quite the same elite class as Jones. Add to that he may lose some of his explosiveness as he gains weight, you have to think he'll end up being a very good athlete, but not elite.
Edge: Jones
Inside Game
Jones: With his size and bounce, Jones is able to get his shot of over most players. He displays nice touch around the basket and has a jump hook, a turnaround jumpshot, and can drop step. The best part of his inside game is that if he get close enough to dunk, he'll finish strong. His footwork in the post needs work, he doesn't enter the post with a plan, and he doesn't always know what to do when he's double teamed, but the tools are there, he just needs a lot of polish.
Davis: Davis is remarkably good in the post for a player who just started playing there a year ago. With his great length and good, high release points on his shots, he's able to play over the top of just about everyone. He's also got terrific hands and catches anything thrown near him. Obviously his lack of lower body strength at this point prevents him from gaining good post position, but he makes up for this with quickness and footwork. Like all young players, he's far from a finished product but the skills and the demeanor are there.
Edge: Davis
Outside Game
Jones: Despite having the size of a power forward, Jones is clearly more comfortable on the perimeter. So much so that his best fit in the NBA is probably at small forward. His jumpshot has range out to the 3 point line, though he's very inconsistent from there. Mid-range, however, Jones is much better. Where he really stands out is his ball handling and passing, he's got point forward potential and is great on the break. He'll really excel on an fast-paced team. Part of the difficulty in evaluating Jones is that the guard play on his team is so poor that he hardly ever got the ball in a place where he was comfortable, but when he did he was effective.
Davis: Despite being a guard most of his life, Davis is much more effective in the paint than on the perimeter. His jumpshot is good, but nothing special for a big man. He has the ability to take his man of the dribble, but is more comfortable giving the ball to a guard on the break instead of taking it himself, which is usually a smart thing to do.
Edge: Jones
Defense
Jones: With his length and leaping ability, Jones is an very good shot blocker, but not elite. Where he really excels is guarding his man. He's got the strength to guard 4's and 5's, but also the lateral quickness to guard wings and guards, making him one of the most versatile defender in basketball. He should also be very good guarding pick and rolls.
Davis: Having a 7-4 wingspan is one thing, but Davis also displays the timing and instincts of an elite shot blocker. He could easily block 2.5+ shots a game in college and near that many in the pros, he's just an natural shot blocker with tools to do it. Though not as good as Jones, Davis is still very good when switching on quicker players, however it's in the post that worries come. His length causes problems for post players, but the lack of bulk and lower body strength could cause him to be push around on defense by bigger players.
Edge: Push
Rebounding
Jones: Jones has all the tools of a great rebounder, but Baylor's system hides it occasionally. Despite that, he lacks the elite rebounding instincts you see in some of the best rebounders. He's much better on the offensive glass, though, so that's a good sign. I'd say if he ends up at power forward, he'll be an average rebounder, whereas he'll be above average at the 3.
Davis: Look, the guy averaged 22 rebounds a game his Senior year of high school, so you know he's got that ability. Projecting him to college and the NBA, you see a guy who's got the reach, but also has great instincts tracking the ball off the rim and will rebound out of his area consistently. As with his post play, Davis' lack of strength may hinder him a bit as a rebounder, but once he's bulks up even 20 pounds that should be an issue.
Edge: Davis
Motor
Jones: Though he's received the rep as a guy with a bad motor, that's just not the case. Jones almost always plays hard, but he just defers to teammates more than he should. With his talent, he should be a dominant player, but he is too unselfish at times.
Davis: Davis has a great motor, trying to block every shot, pursuing rebounds outside his area, and consistently running the floor.
Edge: Davis
Bottom Line
Jones: Perry Jones is perhaps the most gifted player in the country, but terrible guard play and oversized expectations derailed his first season. He was actually very good when it came to things he could control, but he didn't have the breakout season that some people were unfairly expecting. If he can improve all around his Sophomore year, especially from 3 point range, he'll have a shot at the top pick in the 2012 draft and will certainly be a top 5 pick whether it's at the 3 or the 4.
Davis: From a relative unknown as a Junior to the consensus number one recruit this year, Davis has had one of the most interesting paths to stardom in recent history. Scouts have also pegged him as the favorite to be the top pick in the 2012 draft. It'll be hard for him to blow it in his first season, the only thing he really has to do is put on some weight because all the other tools are there to average 15 points, 10 rebounds, and 2.5+ blocks on a loaded Kentucky team.
Overall edge: Davis, but not by much. Jones has a higher ceiling, but Davis has a higher floor as well as a pretty high ceiling himself.
Perry Jones Highlights
Anthony Davis Highlights
Up next: Harrison Barnes vs. Michael Gilchrist
No comments:
Post a Comment