1. Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C Kentucky (6-11, 250) Age: 19
Towns has always been well regarded as an offensive prospect, so much so that he was a considered a top 10 pick just on the strength of it. However, it was his defense this season that launched him into top overall pick selection: Towns used his size and 7-3+ wingspan to protect the rim, while also showing the agility and awareness to guard pick-and-roll. The craziest thing about Towns is that he hasn't even shown all of his offensive game yet, he is a legitimately good jump-shooter who can make 3s to go along with the post game he has already demonstrated. No big man in this draft has the upside of Towns to be able to legitimately dominate the game on both ends of the floor.
2. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG Guandong (6-5, 200) Age: 19
This is a Golden Age of point guards in the NBA and there isn't much sign of that letting up any time soon. The next in line is Emmanuel Mudiay, who has tremendous size, speed, and athleticism reminiscent of John Wall. Mudiay isn't the natural point guard Wall is, but he is already a better shooter at this point and can be just as devastating in transition and going to the rim. On defense, his size and physical ability gives him a chance to be special on that end as well. Mudiay took a unique path to the draft, signing to play in China instead of going to SMU, one that may have cost him a shot at being the top pick in the draft, though he is still firmly entrenched as a top-4 pick and a future star in the NBA.
3. D'Angelo Russell, SG Ohio State (6-5, 180) Age: 19
There are some basketball players who see the game at a different level, anticipating the action before it happens and making plays that wouldn't be possible a second earlier or later. D'Angelo Russell is such a player; he truly sees the floor like a point guard while being both willing and able to set up teammates. If that isn't enough to make Russell special, he is also a tremendous shooter with easy NBA range and a natural scorer's feel. He could definitely player point guard if drafted by a team that needs one, but I love the idea of playing him as a secondary ball-handler that can alternatively break-down defenses or spot up. While the James Harden comps will always be out there, Russell will need to get better at drawing fouls for that to be the case; those are the areas he can most improve.
4. Jahlil Okafor, C Duke (6-11, 270) Age: 19
Okafor has become a much more polarizing prospect than many would have thought possible after taking the college game by storm, averaging close to 20-and-10 right out of the gate. Despite his size and age, Okafor has huge hands that catch everything, unbelievably fluid footwork in the post, and great touch around the rim. So why is he polarizing? Most will focus on his defense, (which is bad), but what concerns me most is Okafor's lack of range, physicality, and ability to fit into an offense. He is not currently a threat outside of the post, has struggled when going against NBA size, and will require a team with great spacing that is willing to throw the ball into the post often. These are real concerns that tend to be ignored but could have a real impact. Okafor is still incredible in the post, he will go high and put up numbers, but it isn't an open-and-shut case and the flaws are real.
5. Justise Winslow, SF Duke (6-6, 225) Age: 19
One of the most valuable and underrated attributes a basketball player in today's NBA can have is versatility. So much of the game now is creating and exploiting matchups on both ends of the court, so when you have a player who can negate that in your opponents and create it for your team, it is very valuable. Justise Winslow has that ability because he can defend both forwards and guards as well as make outside shots, handle the ball, and set up teammates from the small forward position. He was weirdly bad on 2-point jumpers (27%) despite making 42% of his 3s. I don't know if he is ever a superstar or even an All-Star but Winslow will provide as much if not more value as many All-Stars.
6. Willie Cauley-Stein, C Kentucky (7-0, 240) Age: 21
For two seasons, Willie Cauley-Stein was tantalizing yet frustrating; showing so much potential but lacking in both consistency and the basic fundamentals to make use of all his abilities. All that changed his Junior year, however, as Cauley-Stein was able to unlock all of his talent and put forth the best defensive performance of any player in college basketball last season. Cauley-Stein is in a small group of the best athletes at his size; he compares to the likes of Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan, and Andre Drummond as pure physical specimens from a size, speed, movement, and vertical standpoint. Now that he has started to master some of the fundamental aspects of the game, Cauley-Stein has DPOY potential because he can protect the rim, switch onto guards, and defend the pick-and-roll. Offensively, he is limited to mostly shots around the basket and lobs, but you can live with that with his level of defensive impact.
7. Mario Hezonja, SF Barcelona (6-8, 200) Age: 20
Hezonja is the a relative unknown compared to many on this list because, though he plays in what many consider to be the second best league in the world, Spain's ACB, he has played few minutes for veteran-laden (and recent league champion) FC Barcelona. When he is on the floor, the Croatian's ability is obvious; he is a very complete offensive player, able to handle the ball, shoot from distance, and finish at the rim. Hezonja hasn't always been a willing passer, but when he does he can be a legitimate distributor. Unlike the unfair stereotype of European players, Hezonja is athletic and quick with good length. Hezonja isn't going out-classed physically in the NBA and has the skill level to take punish opponents. Because of his limited exposure, Hezonja is a little riskier than the American prospects with a longer track record, but more talented than almost all of them.
8. Kristaps Porzingis, PF Sevilla (7-0, 220) Age: 19
Like Hezonja, Porzingis plays in the ACB and is much more athletic than the common European stereotype, though he plays more minutes for Sevilla and has averaged double digits this season, both in league play and in the Eurocup. Porzingis is still developing physically, but his game is much more mature than the average 19-year old 7-footer. He can shoot from distance and, along with his mobility and bounce, makes him great playing pick-and-roll because he can pop for the open jumper or dive to the basket and finish above the rim. Defensively, Porzingis is an above-average shot blocker but will need to get stronger to become a real anchor in the paint. He could play a role off the bench in the NBA as early as next year, but team's could also elect to keep him overseas for another season or two.
9. Stanley Johnson, SF Arizona (6-7, 245) Age: 18
What first jumps off the page with Stanley Johnson is his size, despite not turning 19 until the end of May, Johnson is has a better body than most wing players in the NBA. He's no slow mover either, Johnson is athletic and plays very hard on both ends of the court; that plus his size and near 7-0 wingspan gives Johnson excellent defensive potential. Offensively, Johnson is very good in transition and made .371% of his 3s, and 44% of his 2 point jumpers, which will probably be where most of his offense comes from early on until his already decent ball-handling improves. Bizarrely, Johnson struggled somewhat finishing shots at the rim (53%), but based on his physical profile it is hard to see that continuing. Johnson isn't as good of a defender as Kawhi Leonard (a legit DPOY candidate) but he is a better shooter coming out and they both effect the game in similar ways that aren't always manifested in the box score.
10. Frank Kaminsky, PF Wisconsin (7-0, 234) Age: 22
The notion among fans is that if a player is big, white, and a Senior, they will stink in the NBA. Frank Kaminsky also isn't helped by his goofy personality and playing on a mostly white team like Wisconsin. However, none of those things actually have anything to do with a basketball player's on court success, what does matter is skill, size, and physical traits. Kaminsky checks the box on all of those things; he is a good athlete with excellent size for a power forward and a polished offensive skillset. Kaminsky can score in the post and at the rim (70%), is comfortable handling the ball, and is a legitimate 3-point shooter (40% the last two seasons), which will be the bread-and-butter of his game in the NBA. While he will never be considered a defensive force, Kaminsky rebounds well and can block shots.
11. Myles Turner, F/C Texas (6-11, 240) Age: 19
While Kaminsky is mostly a finished product at this stage, Myles Turner is just starting out on his development curve. He has the physical tools to work with as well as a bankable offensive and defensive skill with upside for more. Turner has the size to play center and with a 7-4+ wingspan there is no reason he can't play their full time in the NBA as his frame develops. Offensively, Turner's best weapon is his jumpshot from mid-range where he made 42% last season and should stretch out to the 3-point line with time. Unfortunately, he can fall in love with the shot and avoid posting up, where he could excel due to his touch. He is a great free throw shooter, which is always a bonus for a big man. On defense, Turner lacks vertical explosiveness, but his length and positioning help him to be a plus rim protector. The upside of Turner is a shot-blocker who makes 3s, something very valueable (and rare) in the NBA.
12. Kelly Oubre, SF Kansas (6-7, 200) Age: 19
One of the hardest things to predicts is whether players who lack consistency will ever gain it and what exactly can be done by teams and coaches to help them. This is a inherent risk with all prospects, but even more so with one like Oubre, whose season was started out with DNP-CDs, featured some soaring highs and epic lows. When playing well and engaged. Oubre can really fill it up, attacking the basket and making outside shots, but all too often that version doesn't show up. He is excellent finishing at the rim (60%). He has potential to be a very good, physical defender and that rebounds the ball well, however without the offense he loses most of his value. If Oubre pulls an Andre Drummond and all of a sudden turns it on nightly, he could be one of the best players from this draft, but if he doesn't he could be a big bust. That's the risk here.
13. Jerian Grant, PG Notre Dame (6-5, 202) Age: 22
For someone who has never averaged less than 35 minutes a game over the course of three and a half seasons at Notre Dame, there is a lot of available data on Jerian Grant but that is what makes his steady, season-to-season improvement all the more impressive. Grant's game has continued to grow, to the point now that he is a legitimate point guard who can also play off the ball (35% career from 3). He sees the floor well and is a willing passer who has grown in his decision making and ability to run an offense. As a finisher Grant has the body control and touch to be above-average in this area. Defensively, due to his size and quickness, Grant can be excellent defensive player. At 22 he may not have much more developing to do, but what he is already is a polished player that can play either guard spot and provide plenty of value at either position.
14. Sam Dekker, F Wisconsin (6-9, 220) Age: 20
No one benefited from March Madness more than Dekker, who looked like a different player than at times during the year. In 6 games, he averaged 19.1 points per game, shooting 57% from the field and 42% from 3 while frequently being the best player on the floor. The difference was Dekker's aggressiveness, he saw a match-up advantage and tried to exploit it. In the NBA, whatever team that drafts Dekker will want to put him in such match-ups, which is why I ultimately think his best spot at the next level is power forward, he has the size to play their and his ability to put the ball on the floor, and shot from distance would be devastating against less mobile bigs that he can take off the dribble to the rim, where he makes a blistering 75% of his attempts. I would hesitate to play Dekker full time on the perimeter because his jumper can come and go, his game is best when he plays off his ability to drive first.
15. Christian Wood, PF UNLV (6-11, 220) Age: 19
A top 100 recruit, Christian Wood played sparingly his first season at UNLV, but as a Sophomore his minutes jumped and his production took off. Wood has several bankable skills you'd want from a power forward: rebounding and blocking shots at high rates defensively, while finishing in the rim at a high rate (65%). He is also developing as a shooter. Wood shot 28% on 88 3-point attempts last season, but he was better on 2-point jumpers, hitting a very respectable 45% of them, which will definitely play in the NBA. It will significantly aid his efficiency if he stops taking 3s until he develops that range. He also makes an excellent 75% of his free throws. Wood has also shown the ability to attack off the dribble, which goes hand-in-hand with making jump shots. Wood's biggest issue right now is strength, he will need to get stronger in order to be a starter in the NBA, which at 19 years old is certainly possible. Even if he only marginally improves his body, Wood could be John Henson, who is a valuable NBA player.
16. Kevon Looney, PF UCLA (6-9, 220) Age: 19
Kevon Looney has been well regarded all season and is loaded with potential, so it is easy to see why. Looney is, first and foremost, tremendous on the offensive glass, (3.4 a game) using his activity, instincts and 7-3+ wingspan. He is good on the defensive boards as well, though not at the same level. Looney moves well and could be excellent defending perimeter 4s as well as the pick-and-roll, though he will need to get stronger to hold up defending in the paint and he isn't much of a shot blocker at this point. Offensively, there are more concerns. He is a good ball handler for a power forward, but Looney's 42% 3-point shooting is a bit deceiving as it was only on 53 attempts, whereas his 32% on 101 2-point jumpers and 63% on free throws paint a much more realistic picture of his shooting ability. Looney doesn't have bad mechanics so he may become a good shooter down the line, but he isn't yet. That potential is what will get him drafted and as always it's hard to bet against a 19 year old improving, but the top 10 talk is a little overboard in my eyes.
17. Devin Booker, SG Kentucky (6-6, 206) Age: 18
Shooting is, as always, at a premium in the NBA; it is one of the few skills that every single team could use more of. There are, of course, great shooters that can't cut it in the NBA because they lack enough secondary skills to be an overall positive. That is the question with Devin Booker, his shooting ability is unquestioned but does his game have anything else? Booker is efficient inside the arc (53%) so that is a plus. He played a lot of minutes on one of the best defensive teams in the country, but his physical profile (short arms, lack of great athletic ability) suggests he may struggle in that area. Booker is also just an average ball-handler and passer, so it would be hard to project him as a playmaker. However, his shooting is so good that it worth a first-round pick on the chance that a high-IQ 18-year old improves enough in other areas to stick in a rotation.
18. Bobby Portis, PF Arkansas (6-11, 242) Age: 20
For an All-American and the SEC player of the year, Bobby Portis somehow flew under both the college and pro radar for most of the year, mostly likely because he isn't a flashy player and doesn't have one ability that knocks your socks off. That jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none profile is Portis' greatest strength and ultimately what keeps him from being a lock as a lottery pick. Portis really has few holes in his game; he rebounds, finishes at the rim as a high rate (75%), can score in the post, and has shown to be a decent jump shooter (38% on 2s) who has started making the odd 3-pointer. In addition to his offensive ability and despite modest block and steal totals, Portis is an excellent positional defender. However, without a big step forward in any area, none of these abilities translate to starter. However, as an impact backup and occasional starter, Portis should excel.
19. Trey Lyles, PF Kentucky (6-10, 235) Age: 19
Often the forgotten man during Kentucky's epic run, Trey Lyles was a big reason why the Wildcats offense took a step to the next level during the second half of the season. Lyles is an interesting prospect because he is overrated as a jump shooters (below average 39% on 2s, putrid 14% on 3s) but is much better a post scorer than given credit for. Lyles often played alongside Cauley-Stein and Towns so he was forced onto the perimeter and out of the post more often than would be optimum for his talents, on an NBA team playing power forward full-time, Lyles should flourish and down the line improve his jumper as well, which isn't broken by any means. One of the biggest worries about Lyles is that he isn't a terrific athlete who may struggle to defend on the perimeter and and protect the rim at the next level.
20. Cameron Payne, PG Murray State (6-2, 180) Age: 20
Payne has followed a similar path as his predecessor Isaiah Canaan, riding a wave of high scoring performances and a long Racers winning streak into the draft picture. Now that he is in the picture, closer examination reveals just how good of a prospect Payne is. While Canaan was a score first and second player, Payne is much more of a true point guard. He can definitely score, and do so efficiently, but his passing and play-making ability is what separates Payne from countless undersized combo guards. He sees the floor and is more than willing to make the correct pass, though adjusting to the speed of NBA competition will take time as he learns to run an offense as not the first option. As a scorer, his game is mostly perimeter based, and while he does a good job converting once he gets to the rim (63%) only 18% of his offense is comes there. Outside of the rim, he makes and excellent 46% of his two point jumpers and 38% from 3. He isn't overwhelming big or athletic, so continuing to make shots will be crucial to his success in the NBA. Coming from small school Murray State, how Payne adjusts to the NBA game will be his biggest hurdle, but if you squint really hard you can see shades of another small school point guard: Damian Lillard.
21. Delon Wright, PG Utah (6-5, 190) Age: 22
There are some players who can be the best player on the floor without scoring a point, Delon Wright was that type of player at times this year, and while it would ridicules to expect that from him in the NBA, it goes to show how much impact he could have as a third guard. Wright can play both guard spots, shoots well from every area of the floor, sees the floor and plays unselfishly, while also drawing a ton of fouls and converting free throws at a high rate. As well rounded as his offense is, Wright may be better defensively, versatile enough to guard both guards and wings, while averaging 2.1 steals and over a block a game. At 22 going on 23, there is little upside left in Wright's game, but what his is now, as both a point guard and defensive player, is good enough to make him a rotation player in the NBA for years to come.
22. Montrezl Harrell, PF Louisville (6-8, 240) Age: 21
Harrell surprised many by returning for his Junior season when he may have been a lottery pick; this year the outlook isn't quite as rosy but it would be a surprise if he wasn't drafted in the first round. Harrell's best attributes are his athletic ability and non-stop style of play. Because of this he gets most of his points in transition, off of feeds, and from offensive rebounds; when Harrell gets the ball near the basket he is trying to dunk it and much more often than not he succeeds, shooting an absurd 81% on shots at the rim. Unfortunately, the further away from the basket he gets, the less efficient Harrell becomes; he has tried to incorporate a jumpshot into his game with mixed success. It's something he'll likely want to scrap in the NBA until it becomes more effective. Defensively, Harrell is strong, has a long, 7-3 wingspan and plays very hard, but may struggle against bigger opponents. Harrell is the kind of prospect who should be an NBA role player for a long time but without the upside to surpass that profile unless he takes a big step forward as a shooter.
23. Tyus Jones, PG Duke (6-1, 190) Age: 18
With Tyus Jones, it is a tail of two scouting viewpoints. Watch Jones on the court and it is hard not to love what you see. For a player so young, Jones has a mature and nuanced understanding of playing point guard, understanding positioning and spacing, when to shoot and when to pass, a natural distributor with excellent vision who limits turnovers. He can beat defenders in pick-and-roll whether they go over or under the screen. The other side of the scouting coin is that Jones is clearly limited by his physical profile. He is undersized and, while quick with the ball, lacks the kind horizontal or vertical explosion necessary to be much of a threat at the rim in NBA. He struggled defensively in college, so there is little hope he will be even average on that end going against the NBA's glut of uber-talented point guards. These aspects will likely limit Jones to becoming a backup, but one that plays for many, many years and provides a ton of value in that role.
24. R.J. Hunter, SG Georgia State (6-6, 190) Age: 21
Hunter made national waves when he hit an absurd game winner vs. Baylor in the first round of the NCAA tournament, but NBA folks had been on him since he followed up two excellent seasons with a great showing at the Nike Skills Academy. His Junior year was a step back, particularly with his plummeting shooting percentages. Ironically for a player most people would stereotype as a un-athletic shooter, Hunter was amazing at the rim this season (73%) and pretty bad everywhere else. However, after two full seasons of excellent shooting and 88% from the line, there is little reason to suspect his shooting can't rebound, particularly because he will be a role player in the NBA who won't face the same kind of defensive attention that he did as the clear best player at Georgia State. Most interesting about Hunter's game though is his ability to handle the ball and run pick-and-roll; even if teams don't use him in that capacity very often, he should be effective attacking off of closeouts.
25. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF Arizona (6-7, 220) Age: 20
While offense only perimeter prospects are rarely knocked down much in the draft, those that are primarily defensive players are usually viewed as an undesirable commodity. It takes a special defensive talent for a perimeter player with limited offensive game to be considered a potential first rounder. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is that good. He can legitimately guard four positions (big 4s might give him some trouble) and there is really no questioning his ability to be a top-level perimeter defender. He also rebounds well for his position and is an excellent help defender. Offensive is more of an issue for Hollis-Jefferson, he is excellent finishing at the rim and works really hard off the ball cutting to the basket, but he simply has no range at this point and doesn't even try to shoot that often. Some teams may be scared that having him on the floor will hurt their offenses, but his upside is a bigger Tony Allen without all the craziness.
26. George de Paula Lucas, PG Pinheiros (6-6, 202) Age: 18
If you were drawing up the physical dimensions of an ideal point guard, it would be hard to beat what George de Paula Lucas offers. Tall and strong with an excellent 7-foot wingspan, Lucas will have a physically advantage over most point guards he faces. Skill-wise, he is very much an 18 year-old learning to play point guard and will need time to polish his ball-handling, distribution, and ability to run a team. He is a good, not great athlete but can use his size to score at the rim, while his jumper looks good, he needs consistency. Lucas has terrific upside and should be a first round pick, however the couple of years it may take him to become NBA ready may scare some teams off.
27. Cliff Alexander, PF Kansas (6-8, 240) Age: 19
Cliff Alexander's one-and-done season didn't exactly go as planned; he only 17.6 minutes a game and was suspended for the last 8 games of the season with academic issues. His per 40 numbers are pretty good, 16.2 points, 12 rebounds, 3 blocks a game, but the fact that he couldn't get more minutes on a pretty average Kansas team is concerning. He has no range outside of the paint offensively and is really limited to lobs and put-backs until his post game develops more. Defense and rebounding is where his money will be made in the NBA. Alexander rebounds well on both ends and has the size, length, activity, and lift to continue that at the next level. He fights to challenge shots, is strong enough to bang inside, and moves well enough (if awkwardly) to guard on the perimeter. Alexander may suffer from comparisons to former Jayhawk Thomas Robinson, who has not found consistent NBA success. Though they are similar players, Alexander can still be useful as a backup if he focuses on his strengths while avoiding his weaknesses, which has been Robinson's downfall.
28. Robert Upshaw, C Washingon (7-0, 250) Age: 21
Upshaw was having an amazing season and well on his way to a becoming a potential lottery pick before the same off-the-court issues that forced him to transfer to Washington cropped up again and he kicked off a team for the second time in his career. The question with Upshaw isn't talent, he is a potential DPOY candidate with amazing shot blocking instincts plus the size and strength gobble up opponents in the paint. Upshaw blocked 4.5 shots in just under 25 minutes a game, an absurd 7.2 per 40, and altered countless others. As you'd expect he is awesome finishing at the rim (74%) and surprisingly decent shooting from mid-range (40%) but offense isn't his forte and never will be. He is a terrible FT shooter as well (36%). But again, with Upshaw it is all about if he can stay clean off the court. If he does, you could be looking at the next Rudy Gobert, if not he'll be playing in China.
29. Anthony Brown, G/F Stanford (6-6, 215) Age: 22
Role players hardly ever go high in the draft because teams are forever searching for a potential star, which pushes down surer-thing, lower upside prospects like Anthony Brown. Brown has the two definitive skills necessary to be an excellent 3-and-D. First of all, he is an excellent perimeter defender who can check both guards and wings, using both his quickness and smarts to lock down opponents. As a shooter, Brown's release is quick and he has a long track record as a 3-point shooter, including the last two years when he made 132 three-pointers on a blistering 45% shooting. Brown isn't ever going to be a star, but he could be Danny Green, which make him very valuable.
30. Justin Anderson, SF Virginia (6-6, 227) Age: 21
The other prominent potential 3-and-D wing in this draft, Justin Anderson, has a higher upside as a defender but his shooting is a bigger question mark. Anderson has great size, strength, explosive leaping ability, and a 6-11 wingspan, all of which adds up to tremendous potential defensively. The bigger question with Anderson is his shooting, in his first two years at Virginia, Anderson made just 30% of his 3s, but as a Junior that jumped to 45%. So the question is, which is the real Anderson? If he can shoot 35-40% from 3, Anderson could be a very valuable player but if he regresses back to the 30% range? He really doesn't have that much value because while he could be a really good defender, he's not Hollis-Jefferson's level.
31. Aleksandar Vezenkov, SF Aris (6-8, 200) Age: 19
There was a time when Aleksandar Vezenkov would be dubbed "the next Dirk Nowitzki" because he is tall, can shoot, and, most importantly, European. Luckily we seem to have finally moved past those types of stereotypes, unfair to both Dirk and to whom he is being compared. Vezenkov is an outstanding shooter, perhaps the best in the draft, with a picture-perfect stroke. The Cyprusian international is best in catch-and-shoot situations but has shown some ability off the dribble. Due to Vezenkov's size and quick release, he has little trouble getting off his shot. Handling the ball is not his forte, but Vezenkov is decent at it and sees the floor well. The big knocks on Vezenkov are his lack of athleticism that may cause some defensive issues as well as the league he plays in, the Greek League, not being top competition. Still, at 6-8 with at least one more than NBA quality skill, Vezenkov is intruiging. He's a better prospect than Davis Bertans, who went 42nd overall in the 2011 draft.
32. Jarell Martin, PF LSU (6-10, 236) Age: 20
Like his fellow SECian Bobby Portis, Jarell Martin is a well-rounded big man with the physical attributes to stick at the position but perhaps lacking the upside of a potential starter, let alone a star. Martin does all the things you want from a power forward at an average or above rate, but nothing in his game stands out as a skill that can carry him. His defense and rebounding isn't elite, neither is his post game or finishing. The all-around ability is enough to be a net positive most of the time, but Martin isn't a huge difference maker, just solid. The one area he could grow in is his shooting, which had had a rep for in high school, but after two years at LSU it hasn't show itself yet.
33. Dakari Johnson, C Kentucky (7-0, 255) Age: 19
Backup center is not a sexy position, no fanbase is pumped when their team drafts one, but invariably injuries come, big guys need rest, and Bismack Biyombo is playing 30 minutes a game. Dakari Johnson's choice to go to Kentucky led to two final fours, but may also have cost him a lot of individual awards and perhaps a lottery pick. Despite being a top recruit, Johnson played only 16.3 minutes a game because of how loaded the Wildcats were in their front court. His per 40 stats are good (15.6 points, 11.3 rebounds, 2.3 blocks) however, and how Johnson played on the court in addition to his high school tape are enough to show that Johnson has what it takes to stick as a backup in the NBA. He has great size and is a true low-post center who's range is paint, he rebounds on both ends well, and should be able to clog the lane defensively. The upside isn't huge, he isn't a shooter and lacks the lateral quickness to be a versatile defender, however Johnson should stick in the league for years.
34. Zhou Qi, C Xinjiang (7-2, 209) Age: 19
Zhou Qi is blessed with tremendous size, long arms, (7-6+ wingspan), and mobility, good enough to make him a potential plus defender at both the rim and vs. the pick-and-roll. Offensively, he has very good touch around the rim and a developing jump shot, however his post game is still raw; his offense mostly finishing passes at this point. In many ways, Qi's weaknesses are a microcosm of the struggles of many young 7+ foot tall players: he needs to get a lot stronger before he'll be ready to play in the NBA and he isn't always full engaged in games, which is for big guys learning to play hard all the time in giant bodies. Qi won't be ready for the NBA until he gets stronger, but as a draft-and-stash prospect, he has a ton of appeal because of his upside.
35. Tyler Harvey, SG Eastern Washington (6-4, 185) Age: 21
Harvey picked the right year (the year of Steph Curry) to be entering the draft. Harvey's game is clearly modeled after Curry, and he even physically looks like Curry, though clearly based on this ranking he isn't close to that league. Harvey is a special shooter, making 43% of his 3s and 47% of his two point jumpers, off the dribble, catch-and-shoot , stepping back, pulling up, it doesn't really matter. He isn't terrible attacking the basket either, but shooting is his forte. It's easy to see Harvey and think that you could make him a point guard, ala Curry but he doesn't have that kind of vision or demeanor, he'll make the obvious pass but is on the court to score first and foremost. As a two guard, he is undersized and may struggle defensively, but as a bench scorer or playing alongside an ball-handling 2 guard, Harvey should thrive. The comps to Curry will keep coming, but Curry is the best shooter the NBA has ever seen and also a true point guard; instead I think that Harvey is what many thought Jimmer Fredette would be. An interesting note: against 5 major conference teams Harvey faced last season, he averaged 25 points a game, on 46% from the field and 42% from 3.
36. Terry Rozier, PG Louisville (6-1, 190) Age: 21
Rozier is a polarizing prospect because his skills are better suited for a 6-5 shooting guard instead a 6-1 point guard. There is no denying Rozier's ability to put up points, but his method of going about it are more troubling: he takes 46% of his shots at the rim, making 55% of them, which isn't instead an awesome number, especially considering that it gets harder to finish in the NBA. This wouldn't be as big as an issue if Rozier didn't shoot 31% on 3s as well as being a below average distributor for a point guard. His 40% on 2-point jumpers and 79% on free throws is promising for his shooting, but Rozier hasn't demonstrated much feel as a passer through two seasons. One area that Rozier does excel is defensively; his size will limit him to guarding point guards, but he is both effective and disruptive against them. Basically, Rozier is a shooting guard in a point guard's body, which can work as a beach scoring option of a Lou Williams type, but Summer League superstar is more likely based in profile.
37. Timothe Luwawu, SG Antibes (6-7, 205) Age: 19
Like many draft-and-stash European prospects, Timothe Luwawu's appeal is mainly his potential, though he is already well on his way to developing that potential. It all starts with Luwawu's physical ability, he is an excellent athlete with long arms, and a strong frame with room for growth. Defensively, the Franchman has potential to be plus while offensively he can blow by most opponents at this point because of his great first step. Where he can grow most is handling the ball and shooting, both of which will greatly benefit his ability as a slasher. His stroke is good, he just needs consistency. Luwawu is physically ready for the NBA, but he could use another year or two in a better league overseas to polish his skills, which will likely be th plan for any team that drafts him.
38. J.P. Tokoto, G/F North Carolina (6-5, 200) Age: 21
One of my favorite prospects in the draft, J.P. Tokoto will probably never be a star (though he might win a dunk contest) but when he is on the floor he contributes to winning. Tokoto's value begins with his amazing athletic ability, a highlight waiting to happen, he is an awesome finisher at the rim and has the potential to be a special wing defender. He is unselfish and a terrific passer, basically functioning as a point guard at times for UNC. The biggest obstacle towards Tokoto sticking in the NBA is his shooting, he made 38% of his 3s last season but only on 32 attempts, if he can improve to a reasonable percentage, Tokoto should easily stick in the NBA, if not than I still think he has a chance because his defense and passing are that good.
39. Guillermo Hernangomez, C Sevilla (6-11, 255) Age: 20
Kristaps Porzingis isn't the only NBA prospects playing for Sevilla in Spain's ACB. In fact, Guillermo "Wily" Hernangomez plays essentially the same amount of minutes as Porzingis and is just as productive, or more in some cases, though of course Porzingis is a top 10 pick because of his size, upside, athleticism, and skill. Hernangomez has two of those things, size and skill, which is why he is more of a late-first-early second round prospect. He has the size of a legitimate center, with room for growth, and a 7-1+ wingspan that isn't extrordinary, but more than adequate. Skill wise, he has very good footwork, is comfortable with the ball, and soft hands. It'd be hard to call Hernangomez quick, but he isn't slow-footed attacking the basket by any means. He occasionally struggles finishing, but that should come with more time and strength. As a rebounder, he is better on the offensive end, with a real knack in that area. Because he isn't quick moving on defense, Hernangomez will always be more reliant on smarts and positioning, which is hard to project and therefore makes his defense somewhat of a question mark.
40. Chris McCullough, PF Syracuse (6-10, 220) Age: 20
Since his high school days, Chris McCullough has been a tough evaluation. His talent has always been abundantly obvious: great size, projectable frame, long 7-3 wingspan, explosive leaping ability, guard-like quickness, smooth finishing ability, and a jumper that might have 3-point range sooner rather than later. The issue is he's never been consistently dominant the way those talents suggest and he'll disappear for stretches at a time, even whole games or series of games. The other issue is McCullough was knocked out for the season with a torn ACL, there's a good chance he makes a full recovery, but if he is diminished it will remove a lot of his value, which comes from finish and defense, where he is very good. If McCullough can be a plus defender and develop 3-point range, he will be a steal outside of the top 15 or so picks, a valuable role player, which is perhaps the role he is best suited to instead of the star his skills suggest.
41. Michael Qualls, SG Arkansas (6-6, 210) Age: 21
A prototype wing player, Michael Qualls has everything physically you look for in the position. Prototypical size, a 7-foot wingspan, and excellent all around athletic ability, Qualls will not be held back by his athletic tools. Offensively, he is always in attack mode and has a great first step and is excellent off the dribble and getting to the rim, where he converts an outstanding 71% of his attempts. Qualls brings the same energy defensively, but is occasionally too aggressive and needs to work on sticking to the fundamentals. The biggest issue with Qualls is that the further away from the rim he gets, the less effective he gets. While his 33% three point shooting is acceptable, he only made 28% of his 2-point jumpers, a very poor percentage. Qualls will need to remain at least passable as a shooter in order to keep defenders from laying off of him.
42. Rashad Vaughn, SG UNLV (6-6, 210) Age: 18
Vaughn is hard to peg, he was a top prospect who averaged a robust 18.3 points a game with very good percentages from all areas of the floor yet he is receiving very little hype despite not turning 19 until August. Vaughn is first, foremost, and likely always a scorer who has shown the ability to score from all over the floor. He is strength-wise for the NBA, which will help considering he is not the kind of athlete that will create great separation either horizontally or vertically. The funny thing about Vaughn's great percentages is that his shot selection can be pretty poor at times, which is not a great sign because teams are realizing "bad shot makers" aren't very valuable, and making those bad shots gets harder against NBA defenses. Still just 18, Vaughn can improve his shot-selection and efficiency and make this ranking look foolish in a couple years.
43. Nikola Milutinov, C Partizan (6-11, 220) Age: 20
An ideal draft-and-stash candidate, Nikola Milutinov has nice bankable skills and really one major issue holding him back that can be improved on overseas while not costing his team any present money, but with the potential of a rotation player down the line. Milutinov is very mobile for his size, not an outstanding vertical athlete, but has long enough arms to bother shooters around the rim and in pick-and-roll. Offensively, he has nice footwork and hands, the best foundation for a post player and good touch around the rim. Milutinov's biggest area in need of improvement is strength and toughness, he tends to get pushed around and will need to become more physical as well as more muscularly developed. Any team that drafts Milutinov will likely keep him overseas, watching to see how his body matures and if he starts to push back in the post. If he does, you've got a potential backup center that can contribute on both ends of the court; if not he joins the countless other second rounders to never make the NBA.
44. Norman Powell, SG UCLA (6-4, 215) Age: 21
For his first three years at UCLA, Norman Powell was an average player with some intriguing skills. His Senior year, however, Powell's minutes jumped and so did his production. He is great at getting to the rim and finishes well there, but his jumpshot needs work, which will be crucial to his development as those drives to the rim become more difficult. When committed, Powell is able to be a good defensive player and his 6-11+ wingspan and strong frame make up for a lack of height and athletic ability. As a combo guard, Powell can make correct passes but is a scorer, first and foremost. Powell will get knocked because of worries that his ability to get the rim will be diminished facing better, bigger athletes every night, making his shooting struggles even more glaring.
45. Cedi Osman, G/F Anadolu Efes (6-8, 190) Age: 20
Every year or so, a prospect comes around with a unique skillset that will require a precise fit for success in the NBA. Cedi Osman is, at his size, a legitimate point guard with tight handles, excellent court vision, and passing ability. His height helps him see over the defense and find passing lanes that others might not see. The rub is, the rest of Osman's game lags behind. Frankly he is a not a efficient scorer in any way, a poor shooter and finisher. Defensively, Osman may struggle defensively as he lacks great athletic ability or long arms, the upside in this area is likely average. Put Osman on the right team after another year and Europe and he could be a valuable match-up piece off the bench.
46. Rakeem Christmas, F/C Syracuse (6-9, 250) Age: 23
A well-regarded prospect out of high school, Rakeem Christmas played in 142 games, but didn't develop as anything more than a defense/rebounding big man until his Senior year, where he took a huge step forward as a post player. Christmas scored very efficiently from 15-feet in, with the ability to turn over either shoulder. He also makes 72% of his free throws and finishes at a high rate around the rim. Christmas' best attribute it his defense, he projects to be above-average in that area because of his strength, 7-3+ wingspan, and all around excellent athletic ability. The big knocks on Christmas is age and the fact that he plays like a center on offense, but is the size of a power forward. He could be a valuable backup big man because of his defense, ability to score around the rim, and step in right away, but Christmas will be most successful paired with a center that can stretch the floor a little, as to not create spacing issues since he isn't an outside threat.
47. Andrew Harrison, G Kentucky (6-6, 210) Age: 20
Playing for Kentucky cut both ways for Andrew Harrison, it kept his name in the spotlight despite poor play, but it also inflated expectations to the point he couldn't hope to live up to them. Harrison is not an asthetically pleasing type of player, especially for point guard purists, but has some intruiging skills to go with the obvious flaws. I don't think he can be a point guard full time at the next level, he just doesn't have the feel for the position. However, I think he could be interesting as a 2-guard if his 3-point shooting continues to hover around a respectable percentage. Put Harrison off the ball, let him attack off of close outs, finding teammates, drawing fouls and I could see him sticking in the NBA; let him try to run an offense and I think you're asking for an inefficient offensive output, turnovers, and most importantly, a stagnate team offense.
48. Mouhammadou Jaiteh, C Nanterre (6-11, 249) Age: 20
Mouhammadou Jaiteh is another intriguing draft-and-stash prospect who has the physical attributes of an NBA center and a mid-range game. Jaiteh is big, strong and has an excellent 7-4 wingspan; he isn't a great athlete but if a team keeps him out of too many pick and rolls, he should be able to clog the lane and protect the rim. Offensively, he lacks a great feel for the post but has developed a nice jumper with soft touch. Still, guarding the rim and stretching the floor can be useful from a backup center, which would be his role in the NBA if he makes it.
49. Jordan Mickey, PF LSU (6-8, 235) Age: 20
Despite outproducing his teammate Jarell Martin for much of his career at LSU, Jordan Mickey has never been as highly regarded, mainly because questions about his size and offensive ability. The size thing could be an issue, but that will be mitigated somewhat by his 7-2 wingspan, though bigger players will certainly have an advantage. Martin's best attributes are his defense and rebounding, he averaged an outstanding 4.2 blocks and 11.4 rebounds per game while also having the quickness to defend perimeter based 4s. Offensively, he is a good not great finisher with decent numbers shooting from 2-point range (40%) but not the kind of stroke that is likely to translate into great shooting numbers. Mickey's path to the NBA will be as a defensive specialist vs. stretch 4s who won't kill you in other situations because of his shot-blocking and defense.
50. Moussa Diagne, C Fuenlabrada (6-10, 218) Age: 21
Moussa Diagne is an interesting prospect, mainly because he is older than the average young, raw big man so a team may look at him as a potential draft-and-stash to see if his game takes the necessary steps forward, but at this point there are questions as to how much he could possible develop. Physically, he has the look of an NBA center, big broad shoulders, long arms (7-4 wingspan, 9-3 reach), he moves well and is a good athlete for his size. However, the skills are what needs to develop, he knows what to do when he gets the ball around the rim, but that is the limit for now. Defensively there is upside and he could be a backup center if his instincts improve. The most likely outcome is Diange is taken near the end of the second but a team looking to develop him more.
Anyone too high? Too low? Let me know!
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